NHL Grind Down: Monday, February 13th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets
| New York Rangers | Columbus Blue Jackets | ||||||||
 | Henrik Lundqvist |  | Sergei Bobrovsky | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 36-18-1 | 35-14-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.40 | 2.62 | 20.60% | 81.60% | Team Stats | 3.20 | 2.44 | 23.30% | 81.20% |
After a mediocre month of January, the New York Rangers have really turned things on down the stretch. They’ll head to Columbus tonight having won all five games they’ve played this month and could pull even with Columbus for second place in the Metropolitan Division with a regulation victory. The Rangers own an NHL best 18-7-0 road record this season, but they’ll certainly have their hands full tonight as the Blue Jackets own a very solid 19-7-1 record at Nationwide Arena. Up-front, the Rangers are simply loaded with forward depth. Seven forwards have already topped the 30 point plateau this season and that balanced attack is the main reason they’ve scored 3.40 goals per game this season. Both of the top two forward lines are terrific and highly dangerous offensively. All six players (Kreider, Zibanejad, Zuccarello, Vesey, Stepan and Nash) also see plenty of run with the man-advantage and fine targets on a two-game slate. However, it’s been the third line rolling lately for the Rangers and the fact that they’ll likely be slightly overlooked has me very intrigued. J.T. Miller has poured in two goals and seven assists during their five game winning streak, while Michael Grabner has lit the lamp four times and dished out a pair of assists during the same time frame. Grabner has also torched this Columbus team in their previous meetings this season; scoring five goals and adding one assist in three games. On defense, Ryan McDonagh remains the backbone of this hockey club and is the top defensive option. He runs the show from the point of the #1 power-play unit and is locked into huge minutes on a nightly basis. Alternatively, Nick Holden has quietly racked up 25 points this season and has posted three assists against Columbus in those three meetings. He’s grabbed the reigns as the point-man on the #2 power-play unit and remains very reasonably priced across the industry.
Columbus picked up two points against the Detroit Red Wings over the weekend and will be looking to pick up their first back-to-back wins since the middle of January when the Rangers invade Nationwide Arena. This game has major playoff positioning ramifications and it would be surprising if John Tortorella didn’t have his team ready to play some inspired hockey this evening. Columbus has won two of the three prior meetings between these two teams this season and put six goals on the board the last time they squared off. Offensively, Cam Atkinson has emerged as the Blue Jacket’s most dangerous weapon. He’s scored his career best 27th goals of the season in their last game and has posted 49 points in 54 games while leading the team with 161 shots on goal. Atkinson has posted 13 goals and 15 assists in just 27 home games and is flourishing alongside Brandon Dubinsky and Boone Jenner. Dubinsky has failed to put up great numbers this season, but his cheap price tag makes him quite intriguing considering the fact that he’s racked up two goals and five assists over the last five games. The trio of Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg and Nick Foligno have all been eerily quiet lately, but their offensive abilities aren’t in question. Zach Werenski and Seth Jones soak up nearly all of the available playing time on the point of the Columbus power-play and that makes them the top two options here. If you’re looking for a contrarian play, Jack Johnson has picked up four assists in his last six games and is almost guaranteed 20+ minutes of ice-time.
New York Rangers
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.59 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 14, 111.05 CP60
Elite Options
Derek Stepan ($6,300 FD, $6,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.94 CF60, 2.6 xGF60, 101.3 PDO
Mats Zuccarello ($6,600 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.69 CF60, 2.83 xGF60, 100.38 PDO
Ryan McDonagh – 16-17 Metrics – 53.47 CF60, 2.73 xGF60, 100.74 PDO
Secondary Options
J.T. Miller ($6,100 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.66 CF60, 2.55 xGF60, 103.72 PDO
Rick Nash ($6,200 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.57 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 100.75 PDO
Chris Kreider ($6,500 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.05 CF60, 2.9 xGF60, 98.58 PDO
Michael Grabner ($5,000 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.76 CF60, 2.73 xGF60, 106.13 PDO
Nick Holden ($3,800 FD, $3,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.79 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 103.3 PDO
Expected Netminder
Henrik Lundqvist – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7 GPP
Columbus Blue Jackets
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.46 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 22, 112.26 CP60
Elite Options
Cam Atkinson ($7,100 FD, $7,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.25 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 102.48 PDO
Zach Werenski ($5,400 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.25 CF60, 2.45 xGF60, 100.34 PDO
Secondary Options
Nick Foligno ($6,500 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.13 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 100.45 PDO
Brandon Saad ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.16 CF60, 2.84 xGF60, 101.25 PDO
Brandon Dubinsky ($5,000 FD, $4,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.4 CF60, 2.82 xGF60, 102.23 PDO
Seth Jones ($5,000 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.27 CF60, 2.46 xGF60, 99.42 PDO
Expected Netminder
Sergei Bobrovsky – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames
| Arizona Coyotes | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | Chad Johnson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 18-28-7 | 28-25-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.25 | 3.17 | 16.10% | 77.30% | Team Stats | 2.61 | 2.80 | 21.30% | 80.30% |
The Colorado Avalanche have kept the microscope off of the Arizona Coyotes to some degree this season, but this team is still rather awful. They’ve posted just 43 points in 53 games this season and are averaging just 2.25 goals per game. They have been defeated by this Calgary team in all four prior meetings this season and have scored just six goals in those four games. With that said, on a two-game slate, you really can’t ignore anyone. Quietly, Arizona has five of their last eight games and are fresh off of a surprising victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday night. Radim Vrbata leads the Coyotes with 36 points in 53 games and his high shot volume (162 SOG) makes him the most reliable fantasy option up-front. He’ll be joined by Tobias Rieder and Martin Hanzal on the top forward line while also seeing plenty of run alongside Hanzal, Brendan Perlini and Alex Burmistrov on the #1 power-play unit considering the Flames happen to be the most penalized team in the NHL this season. Youngsters Christian Dvorak and Max Domi figure to be key pieces to the future of this franchise and are starting to see some added responsibilities. Dvorak has scored three goals and added an assists in the last four games while Domi has a goal and two assists in the last two games. Both players are highly inconsistent however, so they land on my GPP only list. Looking towards the blue-line, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the clear top option and is the one Coyote I’ll highly consider for cash games. As the quarterback of the #1 power-play unit, Calgary’s propensity for penalties give him a major fantasy boost. Alex Goligoski has shown offensive upside in years past, sees a healthy dose of playing time with the #2 power-play unit and has tallied a goal and three assists in the last four games. If you’re desperate for cost savings, he’s in play as well.
Given the short two-game slate and their competition tonight, Calgary figures to be the most commonly target team. They also enters this game on the heels of a victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins and has quietly won four of their last five contests. Calgary has benefited from a balanced scoring attack this season, but Johnny Gaudreau remains the focal point of this offense. He’s scored a goal and added five assists in his last five games and is joined by Sean Monahan and Troy Brouwer both on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit. With Arizona sporting a putrid 77.3% penalty kill, they figure to receive plenty of attention tonight. Alternatively, rookie Matthew Tkachuk has made an immediate impact at the NHL level. He’s been overshadowed in the Calder Trophy race, but with 34 points in 52 games, Calgary knows they have a building block for the future. Tkachuk has scored a goal and added three assists in the four prior meetings with Arizona and, with Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik on his side, provide Glen Gulutzan with a dangerous secondary scoring unit. Backlund actually leads the team with 38 points and has scored a goal and added three assists during his current three-game point streak. The options on the Calgary blue-line are plentiful, especially considering the Coyotes poor penalty kill (and league worst 2.89 xGA60). T.J. Brodie has the luxury of facilitating things from the point of the top power-play unit and flashed his offensive upside with a four assist outing last week in New Jersey. While he’s a fine option tonight, but Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton are also offensive weapons. Hamilton has racked up 33 points and unloaded a team-high 159 shots on goal this season, making him my preferred target of the three.
Arizona Coyotes
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 45.85 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -26, 116.09 CP60
Elite Options
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($5,300 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.78 CF60, 2.12 xGF60, 99.31 PDO
Secondary Options
Martin Hanzal ($5,200 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.09 CF60, 2.26 xGF60, 96.9 PDO
Radim Vrbata ($5,600 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.4 CF60, 2.22 xGF60, 97.95 PDO
Tobias Rieder ($4,500 FD, $4,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.79 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 99.24 PDO
Max Domi ($4,900 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.53 CF60, 2.15 xGF60, 99.7 PDO
Alex Goligoski ($4,500 FD, $3,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.3 CF60, 2.18 xGF60, 100.11 PDO
Expected Netminder
Mike Smith – My Ratings (out of 10): 3.5 Cash, 5.5 GPP
Calgary Flames
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.12 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -13, 108.75 CP60
Elite Options
Johnny Gaudreau ($7,300 FD, $6,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.56 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 95.52 PDO
Sean Monahan ($6,900 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.17 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 97.48 PDO
Dougie Hamilton ($5,600 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.7 CF60, 2.96 xGF60, 96.89 PDO
Mark Giordano ($5,000 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.84 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 100.21 PDO
Secondary Options
Mikael Backlund ($5,400 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.9 CF60, 2.79 xGF60, 99.46 PDO
Matthew Tkachuk ($5,000 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.1 CF60, 2.96 xGF60, 99.52 PDO
Troy Brouwer ($4,500 FD, $4,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.31 CF60, 2 xGF60, 100.02 PDO
T.J. Brodie ($4,300 FD, $3,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.39 CF60, 2.12 xGF60, 95.62 PDO
Expected Netminder
Chad Johnson – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 7 GPP