Risers and Fallers: Volume 4
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on. If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet.
Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!
RISING… BUT STILL UNDERPRICED
Alex Presley, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Presley was once a solid prospect for Pittsburgh, but he had a disappointing sophomore season and then got lost in the shuffle with the emergence of Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte, never getting much of a shot at the major league level again. Until this year, that is, when Domingo Santana went down and the Brewers decided to try him at the top of the order. Santana should be back any day now, but I’m not convinced that will be the end of Presley’s DFS relevance. The Brewers have never really settled on their third outfielder after Santana and Ryan Braun coming out of Spring Training, and with how well Presley has been hitting, he could be that guy. The three home runs are overstating his power, but he does have a little, plus some speed and contact ability.
The bigger question is where he’ll bat, as Santana will surely resume leadoff duties. But with manager Craig Counsell already having shown a willingness to bat Jonathan Villar lower in the order, I can see him being the one to drop and Presley staying up in the two-hole against righties while he continues to hit. Then again, maybe that’s just wishful thinking considering that Presley has cost an absurd $2,000—minimum price!—on DraftKings all week. He rose to $3,100 on Sunday (and $2,500 on FanDuel), presumably because everyone has been using him, but that’s still pretty low, and it could drop back a bit if
people stop using him as much because of it.
Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers
I lost count, but I think I may have played Odor every day this week… except for Pomeranz Day, when the money was there for Cano and all the good expensive bats and they did nothing while all the good cheaper ones go off and everyone who paid up for Syndergaard along with Bumgarner sucked out. Yeah… I’m still a little bitter about that one!
Odor has been on a tear, and people have taken notice, as his ownership rate as up around 80% in the early slate on DraftKings on Saturday. He’s playing over his head, for sure, as his .290 batting average and 14% HR/FB are career highs, yet all of his peripheral numbers are pretty much in line with where they’ve been.
The one thing potentially lending some credence to the power surge is that Odor just seems to want to hit for more power. The broadcasters mentioned this on Saturday, and you’ll definitely see Odor take some big cuts this year. His swing rate (particularly in the zone) and swinging strike rate are both up a bit this year, supporting this observation, so it may not be a complete mirage. Either way, when you buy into it the amount that is most statistically reasonable, you wind up with an above average hitter with a fairly large platoon split leading off in a lot of good situations at a shallow position. Seeing as how his price has remained extremely reasonable on DraftKings—he has eclipsed $4,000 just once of late (which was over a week ago), remaining in the mid-to-high $3,000s and falling back to $3,700 on Sunday—he’ll continue to be a top second base play while matchups are good. They’ll be good this week, as the Rangers face a lot of weak righties at home: Miguel Gonzalez, Mat Latos, R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez (maybe not weak, but Sanchez is way overrated).
RISING… BUT A LITTLE OVERPRICED
Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Nola is a guy I’m late getting on the train for, but I’m mostly on now. The problem with Nola is the disconnect between the tempered scouting expectations while he was a prospect along with mediocre minor leagues numbers and the crazy-good major league numbers he’s been putting up. Nola’s upside was expected to be that of a number-three starter, a guy with good control but not elite strikeout stuff who can get groundballs and eat innings. He played the bulk of 2015 (i.e. last year) at Double-A while posting a 6.9 K/9 (and that was his second year at the level—he was at 5.6 in five starts the year before). Then he jumped to 9.1 in six Triple-A starts and 7.9 in 13 MLB starts before turning in a 9.9 K/9 this year. For the vast majority of pitchers, that just wouldn’t add up. THE BAT isn’t buying into him as more than a slightly above-average pitcher at this point, but the more I watch Nola, the more I think THE BAT and the scouts were wrong.
When I see Nola, I still don’t quite buy him as a strikeout-per-inning guy, but I do really like the stuff. The fact that he’s a sinkerballer limits the strikeout upside a bit, but it’s a really good sinker, and it comes with good secondary stuff that will still support plenty of strikeouts. The curveball is ridiculous, and the change-up, though not used often, looks like a borderline-plus pitch—I wish he’d use it more. He also has a four-seam fastball to play them off and to help with strikeouts (though I think the four-seamer may well be his weakest pitch).
I’m not ready to pay over $10,000 for him in a mediocre matchup like you’d have to on DraftKings on Sunday ($8,500 on FanDuel is more reasonable), but I am seriously considering going into THE BAT and manually down-weighting the Double-A numbers because I really like what I see from a scouting standpoint.
J.T. Realmuto, C, Miami Marlins
I speculated about how the Marlins lineup would shake out following Dee Gordon’s suspension last week, but now we have more clarity. J.T. Realmuto is the clear winner in all this, batting leadoff against lefties and righties alike. Catchers who bat leadoff are extremely rare and can be very appealing. I can’t count how many times I played John Jaso last year. Of course, Realmuto isn’t the hitter that Jaso was. His .339 wOBA this year is shiny, but he doesn’t have a history of being this good, and we’d be mistaken to treat him as such. His career wOBA was in the mid-.290s coming into this year, and THE BAT has him at .300 right now (league average is around .315). He has modest power (albeit with a little upside) but zero patience, and when his .354 BABIP falls (and it will), the appeal will be limited.
The leadoff spot will make up for many of these shortcomings, but be sure to be selective about using Realmuto. Wait for him to be in a good spot, and wait for the price to be right. He’s been in the low-to-mid $3,000s on DraftKings of late (he fell to $2,800 on Sunday, but I’m guessing that was Aaron Nola-related), and when superior hitters like Welington Castillo and even Buster Posey are comparably priced, Realmuto just shouldn’t be at the top of your board. The Marlins welcome some weak Milwaukee pitchers to Miami this week, so price dependent, Realmuto could be an option—especially since he does run a little, and Jonathan Lucroy is terrible at throwing out basestealers.
RISING… BUT I’M NOT BUYING
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Try asking my bud Shane Barnard how to pronounce Castellanos’s name… man we had some fun on Grinders Live Saturday morning with it. Nick Castellianos… Nick Castelaynos… Nick Casteeyanos… we just settled on calling him Nick. Good ‘ole Nick has been hitting up a storm this year—.419 wOBA,.376 batting average—but I’m not buying it. Nick comes with a good pedigree, but his performance is being driven almost entirely by a .452 BABIP. That’s an insane number, and one Nick deserves a little credit for, but not much.
The broadcasters on Saturday were saying how his success could be traced to an improvement in his approach. Nick has always been a free-swinger, but they mentioned how he’s been more focused in his approach this year, channeling that aggression into good swings in the zone with fewer out of the zone. Unfortunately, this doesn’t actually hold up when we look at the numbers. There’s very little difference in either his in- or out-of-zone swinging stats this year, and he’s actually making less contact in the zone. I can see Nick improving to be a 20-HR per-year player, but the batting average and general production is coming way down. And though he hits in a good offense, he’s just not cash game relevant as a sixth-spot hitter. If J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton keep struggling and he moves up temporarily, sure, maybe, but not right now, especially not with his rising salary. $3,500 on FanDuel isn’t terrible (but not good, either), but a sharp rise to $4,400 on DraftKings on Sunday is absurd, even if he was facing Martin Perez.
FALLING… WITH INTERESTING IMPLICATIONS
Cincinnati Reds Pitchers
It’s not as if the Reds have a lot of appealing pitching options anyway, especially with Raisel Iglesias on the DL, but I do occasionally like Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb as GPP choices. The issue is that the team recently lost catcher Devon Mesoraco for the season, and the new catcher in the rotation is Ramon Cabrera. He’s the backup, not the starter, but on the couple days per week he’s behind the plate, it’s going to be a lot tougher to play Reds and a lot easier to pick on them. Of every catcher on active major league roster right now, Cabrera is the third worst at pitch-framing, costing his pitchers close to twenty points of ERA over an average catcher. Mesoraco wasn’t good, but Cabrera is terrible.
Texas Rangers Pitchers
The Rangers recently lost their starting catcher, Robinson Chirinos, to the DL as well, and they’ve managed to find a replacement that’s even worse than Cabrera—and have essentially given his the starting role. A list of the game’s worst pitch-framing catchers:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Bryan Holaday
Ramon Cabrera
Sorry, Cole Hamels. The good news, of course, is that it makes playing hitters against the likes of Colby Lewis, Martin Perez, and Derek Holland even more appealing.
FALLING… BUT I’M OPTIMISTIC
David Price, SP, Boston Red Sox
David Price has clearly been a DFS disappointment this year, getting blown-up for five or more runs in four of seven outings, culminating in an eight-ER disaster on Saturday. It’s tough to know whether to bank on continued struggles or a bounceback, as the evidence is slightly contradictory. The peripherals are all exactly where you want them to be: 11.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.95 xFIP. On the scouting side, though, his fastball is down a couple mph, and his curveball isn’t getting quite the same snap.
Some may point to a 41% Hard Hit rate as evidence of continued struggles, but that often gets misinterpreted. There’s more variance in that stat than people realize, and honestly, any pitcher with a 6.75 ERA is going to be giving up hard hits; it doesn’t mean that it will continue. You’d never cite ERA as a reason to worry. His swinging strike rate (14.1%) is the highest of his career by a huge margin (career 9.6%), which is again contradictory to stuff that appears to be diminished.
For me, when you break it all down and consider Price’s history of dominance, I’m optimistic about him going forward. If it’s a day with a lot of good, comparable pitching, sure, I’ll fade him for one of the other aces. If it’s a short slate or just a bad pitching day, I may take a chance on rolling him out there again. This week he’ll get the Houston Astros at home. Considering the hitter-friendliness of Fenway and the power of the Houston bats, I may fade him, but if it’s a cold day, I could see rolling the dice, especially in a GPP since the strikeout upside will be through the roof.