The Fantasy Grout, Week 1: The Weekend
(In my best Eminem voice) PEOPLE!! IT FEELS SO GOOD TO BE BAAAAAAAAACKKKK!!
We’ve got lots to cover, so let’s stick to the nuts and bolts today. Next week, we’ll pull up an easy chair and have a chat.
For those new to the space, welcome. In this article, we don’t cover the Fantasy Boulders that comprise the majority of your Fantasy Wall. You can find those everywhere. Here, we discuss the goop that fills between those giant Fantasy Stones, holding the wall together. The low priced fill-ins that allow the big salary players to fit. They, the Fantasy Grime, the Fantasy Grit, the Fantasy Grout.
One very specific place to find detailed information about the boulders and Grout alike is the RotoGrinders’ Incentives. This info is so good, you have to pay for it. Hey RotoGrinders Big Wigs. Look! A Bird! … While they’re distracted, I should tell you that you DON’T HAVE TO PAY. Shhh. You just have to sign up for DraftKings through this link, which grants you immediate access to the Incentives. Also, if you have already signed up with DraftKings but not FanDuel, just sign up here. It turns out, the info for one site is pretty helpful for the other! … Oh, RotoGrinders Big Wigs, I guess it was just a cloud.
Our frame of reference will be DraftKings’ pricing, and all plays will be evaluated based on the value they offer, i.e. the points per $1,000 of salary (PT/$K). We’ll view these values in reference to the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, citing the optimal and winning lineups, along with ownership percentages and any other quirks that come along.
Unless 1) you’re deaf, blind, and busy or 2) you’re a bear that literally just walked out of a cave after a half year hibernation, you are aware that the Millionaire Maker is gigantic for week one. Its prize pool is a guaranteed $10 million, with $2 million to first place, and six-figures to the top six. This Scrooge McDuck pool of money is generated from just $20 entry fees. Note that if it fills up, all 572,500 entrants will be paying a 14.5% vig, which is outlandish. As of Wednesday at noon, it hadn’t yet hit 190,000, so it is possible the tournament won’t fill. This would lower the effective vig, and it might even create overlay. Only time, or me, next week, will tell.
Well, roll up your sleeves. Let’s dig in.
QUARTERBACKS
Friday was mainly transit. On Saturday, I went tubing and can now confirm that at the right velocity, hitting the water does feel exactly like hitting concrete. Sunday, it was the Fireman’s picnic, …
This section will be used, in part, to recap the action last weekend: Who returned what value. Who was owned at what percentage in which tournament. What that all means, going forward. This week though, I don’t think anyone wants to hear about Week 4 of the preseason, where no one played, so I decided, instead, to recap my weekend. This is a technique called “setting the bar low.” That is, placing your expectations for this section at the same level that my hammock sagged to last weekend. Ground-level.
For a quarterback to be considered Grout-worthy, he must be priced at $6,500 or less. This threshold is subject to change, pending any DraftKings pricing shenanigans (cheeky and fun or cruel and tragic). This week, we have 32 starting signal callers in play. Of that group, 13 are Grout-priced, and of that baker’s dozen, one stands out:
TYROD TAYLOR, $5,000 VS IND – Let’s build the case for Taylor starting with the three most common ways a player can find his way onto Gang Grout:
1) A role change, injury- or coaching-driven, after salaries for the week are set.
2) An especially easy matchup which might facilitate atypically positive results.
3) The Liam Neeson Exception: A Particular Set of Skills.
For Taylor, he goes full Mike McD on that list: Check, Check, Check. 1) He’s minimum priced at $5,000. 2) Indianapolis was a middle of the pack defense versus quarterbacks last year, but they are a more attractive now, thanks to a couple factors. They are on the road, they are without Arthur Jones, a defensive anchor for them, and the Bills’ defense should be good enough to keep the game close and their offensive balanced. 3) Taylor will look for scrambling lanes, Taylor will find scrambling lanes, and Taylor will kill scrambling lanes. Metaphorically. He is so effective with his legs that pundits have taken to calling him “The (Hot) Rod” (READ: Just Me. No one else is calling him The Rod. Yet…)
In only eight preseason drives, Taylor amassed a stat line of 24/31 for 236 yards, plus 11 scampers for 108 yards, including a 20-yard score. That is worth over 26 DK Points on what amounts to less than a full game of drives. Even if The Rod puts up a measly 175 yards passing, 40 rushing, and a pass TD, he returns 3 PT/$K. That means, even if he does the fantasy equivalent of taking a high-performance vehicle for a lazy Sunday drive around town, that town is still Value-Town.
Left in the Bucket
Here’s a list of the other quarterbacks I considered, but who ultimately, got left behind.
CARSON PALMER, $6,500 VS NO – Palmer may be down a weapon, Michael Floyd, but that is more than offset by the Saints depleted secondary. I expect at least one game of J. Brown Roulette, where a guy named “J. Brown” scores, and you have figure out if it’s the one you started or the other one.
JAMEIS WINSTON, $6,000 VS TEN – If he lives up the expectations set by @SamENole’s Twitter feed, this is his last week with a Grout-price tag.
ANDY DALTON, $6,100 AT OAK – With that putrid Oakland secondary, Dalton will be seeing… Red.
RUNNING BACKS
Saturday night we went out, but the entertainment was at the campfire afterward. Sunday night was lower key, but… – Like I said, low expectations.
We’ll look to backs priced at-or-below $5,500 here. With running back being a less binary position than quarterback, we’ll count the running backs unavailable to us, which number 15 this opening weekend.
DOUG MARTIN, $4,500 VS TEN – If we can just let bygones be bygones and pretend that 2013 and 2014 never happened, you can play Martin with more confidence than you’ve ever played anyone ever. His 2012 rookie campaign was over 1,900 total yards, including 49 receptions, and 13 total touchdowns. His totals over 13 preseason drives this year, 21 touches for 127 total yards and a TD, including three runs of 15+, would have you believe nothing has changed, save for his sneaky mobile quarterback, drawing defensive attention and opening run lanes.
There’s just those pesky 17 games over two injury-riddled seasons in 2013 and 2014, where he posted YPC averages of 3.6 and 3.7 yards respectively, his target and reception totals sagged, and he crossed the goal-line a scant three times. Here’s what I’m doing for those two down years, cranking up Stugotz’s Excuse Machine! Injuries. Quarterback play. Offensive line shake-ups. You name it, I’ll blame it. It suffices to say I dig Doug.
LAMAR MILLER, $5,500 AT WAS – Remember when Matt Forte was matchup proof last year because, when trailing, he got more reception(s) than a cell phone tower? I think Miller has a chance to be a light version of that this year. This preseason, on just 6.5 drives, he has tallied seven receptions for 69 yards, to go with his 12 totes at 4.92 a pop. Miami, as a team, has totaled 32 running back targets over all their fake football this year. “Lamar-Miller-in-a-PPR” is going to be a thing.
As nothing more than a back-up plan, they might actually hand him the ball too. In three seasons, Miller has never been below 4.0 YPC, and his 5.1 last year was on his biggest workload to date, 216 carries. Oh, and he’s got 4.40 speed. With nothing left to prove, I’ll just point out LaMichael James is going by LaMike in box scores now, which brings me to this question:
Mike and LaMike are both running back Jameses in Florida, Mike gets injured. How does Flo Rida tell you who’s left? Drops LaMike.
Left in the Bucket
DANNY WOODHEAD, $3,700 VS DET – Lots and lots of words will be spilled over many, many internet pages, differentiating players as “cash plays” or “GPP plays,” and they will have been spilled in vain. Ultimately, the player in question, whoever he may be, is going to notch a score. If that score is good, he’ll be a good play, in everything. If not, whaw, whaw, whaaaaaawwww. That is, #PointsArePoints. The premise that we, as a community, are so adept at assessing a range of outcomes that we can determine if someone’s “floor” is high enough for cash or “ceiling” is high enough for tournaments, is ridiculous. Injuries make every floor “0”, and touchdowns are unpredictable and sufficient to make anyone’s ceiling high enough. (SEE: Asiata, Matt)
Now, as it relates to Woodhead, someone might tell you his floor is high, thanks to his low price + targets, but that his ceiling is low. The fact that in his one play in the first preseason game, he replaced Gordon on the 8 and promptly scored, tells me that, like most players, the ceiling in his house is an A-Frame with touchdown beams of support. Also, he out-snapped Gordon in the dress rehearsal, 22-to-19, and his 9 touches in that game were 1st-Down Run, 1st-Down Run, 2nd-Down Catch, 1st-Down Run, 3rd-and-1 Run, 2nd-Down Catch, 2nd-Down Run, 1st-Down Run, and 2nd-Down Catch. Then, they sat him in Week 4. Woodhead is a co-starter there and would be worth your consideration, except …
…I’m not starting any back against Detroit until I see reason to do so.
ISAIAH CROWELL, $4,600 AT NYJ – The only back left standing and under $5K.
ALFRED BLUE, $3,600 VS KC – The Sad Butler wishes he was more explosive.
CARLOS HYDE, $5,300 VS MIN – Like testing a speaker, volume is what really matters.
JAMES WHITE, $3,800; BRANDON BOLDEN, $3,000; DION LEWIS, $3,000 VS PIT – Have they really not created a three-sided coin yet? What’s the hold-up?
WIDE RECEIVERS
Last year, for most of the year, there were between 30 and 35 wide receivers priced over $5,000. Maybe this is just a Week 1 hedge by DraftKings, but 42 wide receivers are not available for our consideration this week. That total includes at least one wide receiver from 28 different teams, two wide receivers from the Broncos, Falcons, Lions, Colts, Jets, Saints, Buccaneers, 49ers, Eagles, Cardinals, Chargers and Redskins, and the top three Giants’ receivers. The four teams with all their current wideout options at our disposal: Seahawks, Rams, Panthers, and Browns.
Fortunately, this week, there is plenty of value to be had at the other positions to offset this more restrictive wide receiver pricing. And you know what, they still have fun in North Korea. Likewise, we can still find wide receiver value, despite this tyrannical pricing!
By the way, I had brats a couple times this weekend, but the highlight was the ribs Saturday night…
DAVANTE ADAMS, $4,400 AT CHI – This is cave man analysis, but it doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Wide receiver for good quarterback out, replacement cheap, start. That said, the Adams fire was already blazing before Jordy Nelson went down for the season. The injury just stoked the flames a bit. In fact, in the first preseason game, the only one Jordy finished, Adams led the first unit with seven Rodgers’ targets on three drives. Against the turnstile Bears defense, just start him. Do it.
Just as a note, you aren’t going to be the only person starting him. He’ll likely be one of the most owned receivers this week, which will lead some to say “Fade Adams in GPPs.” Ignore them. The Millionaire Maker could have well over half a million entries. If you think the way to win the $2,000,000 is to outsmart 500,000 people, rather than just build as close to the optimal lineup as possible, just ring the call button and Tommy will come back there and hit you over the head with a tack hammer. Adams is as likely as anyone to be in the optimal lineup, and #PointsArePoints.
Also, Jordy Nelson is 100%, for sure, undoubtedly stoned in his ESPN headshot. Which brings me to my …
Digression of the Week
What are we doing testing for weed, NFL? For real. I’m not even a fan of the NFL disciplining incidents of spousal abuse, dog fighting, drunk driving, or any other activity which is covered under this other silly, little jurisdiction, the US Legal System. Still, I get punishing those offenses, as the only real thing the NFL has to do is put out PR fires. (Yes, NFL, you had one job to do!) Handing down heavy-handed punishments is a way to counteract the misguided notion that it is a league of thugs and quarterbacks. With weed though, there isn’t even a public stigma to offset. People are fine with it. It’s legal some places, it’s “legal” in some other places, and even though the federal government technically says none of that legality is legal, they aren’t doing anything meaningful to enforce it. Flat out, weed be better off, as a nation, if the NFL just nipped their dopey testing in the bud. Now, back to wide receivers.
JOHN BROWN, $4,500 VS NO – The correct choice, not just for J. Brown Roulette, but for your lineup as well. John was Carson Palmer’s most targeted preseason receiver, which is nice, but not needed because Brown is easily capable or returning value on a single pass. I like to think his 4.34 40-time is so fast, he literally blew the “h” off the end of the name of his alma mater, Pittsburg_ State.
Also, just to be clear, even if Michael Floyd plays for Arizona, John Brown plays for me. He’s too good, and the matchup is too ripe. Not only was New Orleans a porous secondary last year, but they are going to be without Jairus Byrd and Keenan Lewis. The Saints grinding the game down with their new commitment to the run would only be a problem if the Cardinals front-seven allowed that sort of thing, which they don’t. I’m excited to see exactly what Brown can do for me, in Week 1.
Left in the Bucket
Like an unblocked blitzer, it is time to come clean. I didn’t even consider any of the receivers I’m listing below. Adams and Brown were cut-and-dry. Still, DraftKings allows three wide receivers and a flex, so if you spend at quarterback, running back, and Gronk, maybe at wide receiver, you’ll have to go the way of Jerry’s birthday card to Elaine: Davante Adams, John Brown, AND MORE!
LEONARD HANKERSON, $3,000 VS PHI – Despite the soft Eagle pass defense, the extra drives their offensive tempo provides, and the fast track the Atlanta turf offers, this play still pends Roddy White’s health. You can’t take advantage of any of those things on the bench.
EDDIE ROYAL, $3,900 VS GB – As of this writing, Alshon Jeffery’s status for Week 1 is still up-in-the-air, which is exactly how the nine Jay Cutler targets headed Royal’s way will be, if Jeffery sits.
TY MONTGOMERY + JEFF JANIS, $3,000 AT CHI – Green Bay goes 3-wide as much as anyone, so against the Bears, this slot is valuable. Whose is it? I lean to Montgomery. There are those, ahem.@DavisMattek.ahem, who have the opposite opinion.
TERRANCE WILLIAMS, $4,000 VS NYG – Williams has scored on 16% of his catches in his first two years in the league, and he flashed that potential again this preseason with a 60 yard score. In the words of Ronnie from Jersey Shore, “That’s one shot, bro!”
TIGHT ENDS
Don’t look now, but DraftKings has made a subtle little change. No longer, is $3,000 the minimum price you can pay to start a tight end who gets you 2-for-19. Unless this is a Week 1 tight end sale, the new salary floor for the position appears to be $2,500! The Grout ceiling has been lowered as well, from $4,500 to $3,500, to accommodate the lower pricing, and even then, after you strip out Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates, it only eliminates nine other big fellas. In these first couple weeks, let’s regard the new $3,500 Grout price-ceiling like the bellies of players it contains: soft. Also, …
… I got a carpet burn wrestling with my nephews. These are lads that I used to pin with both of my hands literally behind my back. They’re growing up fast, and it isn’t going to end well for me.
HEATH MILLER, $3,300 AT NE – I’ll grant that vanilla ice cream looks at this recommendation and says “Eww. That’s bland.” I think there’s a couple factors that serve as chocolate and toffee, to Miller’s vanilla though.
With Martavis Bryant suspended for something that is legal in our nation’s capital, the Steelers have used 3-wide sets this preseason at a lower rate than almost any other NFL team. Also, the Patriots were already a bottom-quarter team last season, when it came to covering the tight end, and that was before they had a free agency, mass-exodus in their secondary. Lastly, Miller was better than you think last year, recording a catch in every game and averaging over four per game, for the season. Considering those facts, you might consider Miller less vanilla ice cream and more of a Heath bar.
Left in the Bucket
MYCHAL RIVERA, $2,700 VS CIN – All that Raider passing ain’t ending anytime soon.
DELANIE WALKER, $3,400 AT TB – This is a tight end who could be the focal point of the Titans passing game, with no one else emerging, but I’ll temper your expectations with this fact: His first name is Hubert.