The Fantasy Grout, Week 12 - Part Deux
I know there’s a quote about making a house and having it become a prison. I just can’t find it. It does exist though. For sure. Maybe.
I’m feeling a little claustrophobic in my self-created Grout format, so this week, rather than adhere to the rigid structure I’ve built, I’m going to freestyle. I’ll still follow the Fantasy Grout pricing rules, $6,000-or-less for quarterbacks, $5,500-or-less for running backs, $5,000-or-less for wide receivers, and $4,500-or-less for tight ends. I’m also going to continue to be more explicit in which plays I’m the most confident, and possibly a bit less “joke-y”. Other than that? Who knows. In the comments, after you’ve logged your Grout for a Shout pick, let me know if you prefer the more rigid position-by-position analysis, or this.
Speaking of Grout for a Shout, we had a lot of entries this week. Forty-one, to be exact. In a low scoring week, the winning player only produced 5.925 PT/$K. For teaterch and Thanasi, Danny Amendola’s 9-for-117 was good enough, as they took down the week. Holla?
(By the way, I wrote here, about the PROs and CONs of Daily Fantasy Regulation. I wrote here about six Thanksgiving day Grout guys who would have gotten you to cash in a GPP (presuming you were one of the 75% of entrants who added Calvin Johnson to your team). Frankly, I’m feeling in awe of JMToWin, who writes three columns per week, and still has the energy to hop on and write a blog post before travelling.)
T.J. YELDON, $4,800 VS SD – Because of the injuries, there are only seven backs priced out of our range this week. When you consider we have twenty-six teams at our disposal, that is pretty shocking. Then again, the injuries have been INSANE. Among the top 15 backs selected in season-long this year, we’ve lost Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett. Arian Foster easily would have been in that range, if not for injuries before the season, and he’s gone too. That list ignores Dion Lewis, who went from afterthought, to PPR stud, to afterthought in the span of nine weeks. The main problem with pricing more backs higher is ”Who?”
This week, there are four guys stepping in for starters, at a steep price discount, and I’m going to cover them all. I prefer Yeldon over the whole lot. The main reason is the matchup, though there are others as well. The Jags host the Chargers, who host a green “32nd” after their team name. Last week, Spencer Ware wore them out (96 on 11), and the game before that was Jeremy Langford’s 140 yard coming out party.
DIGRESSION OF THE WEEK
Color guys in the NFL have a tough job. Not the job itself, which just requires you to know football and articulate that knowledge. What I mean is that seemingly not one is liked. Every fan base thinks every color guy is biased against their team. The smart ones, like Collinsworth, are too smart. As for the Maddens of the world, Boom!, as your forehead hits the coffee table.
Acknowledging that we are never happy with color guys, I’m still going to complain about them. The worst is when they show the stat saying x-team has this great record when they rush for 100 yards, or whatever total. Simpleton Color Guy always tells us that means you need to run the ball to be successful, even though the entire world knows the causation is reversed, that when you are winning, you run the ball more. Someday, they’re going to put an 11 year old video game expert in the booth, and I’m going to love it. He’s going to get the obvious things right, like this one, and as a bonus, he’ll giggle every time the play-by-play guy says “balls”.
I bring all that up as a long way to note this. The high scoring backs last week were Thomas Rawls and Doug Martin, each going over 200 yards. The week before that, it was Peterson, Langford, and West. Week 9, it was DeAngelo Williams. What do each of these guys have in common? Their teams all won. Most of them won big. This week, the Jags are four-point favorites, at home, against the two-win Chargers. Only three teams are a bigger favorite this week than the Jags, and the game is tied for the third highest team total. Regardless of the guy, it’s a good spot.
And, I like the guy. Yeldon is workhorse, averaging 22.25 touches per game in the Jags four wins. Over the last three games they’ve used him in the pass game more, targeting him 13 times, good for 11 receptions. Most importantly, he isn’t on the IR, yet.
BRIAN HOYER, $5,000 VS NO – I was feeling very anti-Hoyer earlier this week, but I’ve started to come around as the week has gone on. He is at home after all, and that game does have the highest over/under on the week. Also, no team plays faster this year than Houston. Frankly, I was just afraid to play a bad player, chasing a good matchup. I viewed Hoyer as just that. Is he though?
In the five games he started and finished this year, he’s averaging 21 points, including 12 scores. None of those games were against the Saints, who are the worst at … defense in general. The Rob Ryan firing certainly could be addition by subtraction, but there isn’t enough adding in all of arithmetic to fix that defense. I’m now struggling to see how Hoyer doesn’t get 20 points. I’ll probably be all-in by Sunday, as my opinion on him just keeps getting Hoyer and Hoyer.
THE BACKUP RUNNING BACKS
Sticking with the theme of my Pro & Cons column from earlier this week:
4) TEVIN COLEMAN, $4,300 VS MIN
PRO: Young, fresh legs, this late in the season. Home Favorite.
CON: The Matchup (1 RB TD allowed since Week 4). Risk of splitting carries.
3) JAVORIUS ALLEN, $4,600 AT CLE
PRO: Only guy left in the backfield. The Matchup (most rush yards allowed). The nickname “Buck”.
CON: Matt Schaub. Road Underdog. Matt Schaub. Most Expensive. Matt Schaub.
2) THOMAS RAWLS, $4,500 VS PIT
PRO: 2 out of 3 starts were over 25 DK points. Lion’s share of the work. Home Favorite.
CON: The Matchup (two 100-yard games & two RB TDs all year). High ownership.
1) SPENCER WARE, $3,800 VS BUF
PRO: Andy Reid RB role. The Matchup (4.5 YPC to RBs last four). Cheapest Price. Big Home Favorite
CON: The Matchup (third-fewest RB receptions). Doesn’t even have a player card on ESPN.
Like I mentioned above, I’m likely playing Yeldon over all of these guys. If I had to choose one, and in tournaments where I’m diversifying, I’m going with Ware first.
JACOB TAMME, $3,200 VS MIN – 22 Targets. 16 Receptions. 164 Yards. 1 Touchdown. Those are Tamme’s numbers in his two games played where Leonard Hankerson was out. Hankerson is again out in Week 12. Finally, a Grout TE with upside!
MICHAEL FLOYD, $3,800 AT SF – I’ve waited this long to mention a wide receiver because my strategy is typically to go cheap at back and pay up at wide receiver. There’s a school of thought that you pay the most in the safest places, and wide receiver is currently the most predictable. Plus, there’s something to be said for hiding as much money as possible from concussions.
It’s also worth noting that the price line I’ve set for wide receivers, $5,000 on down, is the toughest to navigate of all the positions. While other positions have seen prices sag, wide receivers’ salaries have appreciated slightly. Picking a Grout wide receiver, without a major injury to cause a pricing hiccup, can be tough sledding.
All that said, it’s hard to fit in Beckham, Hopkins AND Fitz. If you have to go cheap, you’ll be stunned to know a player is cheap, with these as his last four games: 7-113-2, 4-106-1, 3-59-1, 5-50-1. Yet Michael Floyd is still less expensive than Brandon LaFell, who doesn’t have a score this year and has been over 70 yards receiving once. Much like a Black Friday Sale, buy Floyd now because he’ll be more expensive next week.
STEVIE JOHNSON, $4,500 AT JAC – While his price is creeping up, it still hasn’t matched his target-level. Since Keenan Allen went down, he’s averaged 9 targets, going for back to back seven grab games. The fact that he hasn’t found paydirt in his new role is probably the reason for the saggy price. This week versus Jacksonville, tied for the 8th most wide receiver scores per game allowed over the last five weeks, should serve as a price plastic surgeon, tightening it right up.
TOURNAMENT DARTS
RYAN FITZPATRICK, $5,000 VS MIA – With Revis out, this game is more likely to devolve into a shootout. Also, did you know he went to Harvard?
CHRIS JOHNSON, $4,600 AT SF – The Niners were already putrid versus the run and now they’ve lost their nose tackle. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for C-J-0.15K this game, on bundles of carries.
VINCENT JACKSON, $4,700 AT IND – Guessing which game Jackson will go off is a fool’s errand. I only mention him due to his upside in the “Wide Receiver #2 versus Indy” spot.
RUEBEN RANDLE, $3,800 AT WAS – With very consistent target totals, and now with Washington missing a corner, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a score. Named after a sandwich, would that score be a “Kraut for the Grout”? Yes. Yes it would.
CROCKETT GILLMORE, $3,700 AT CLE – Either 100 yards or a score in the three games since Steve Smith was injured. Also, there’s nothing more contrarian than starting a receiving option of Matt Schaub.