The Fantasy Grout, Week 16 - If Only
If Only.
You know the feeling. Someone scores, and for a moment, you think “BOOM!” Then, you realize you had that guy in your lineup, but pulled him for whatever reason. What could have been.
The truth is that many times, your change was for the better. Maybe you pulled “so-and-so,” who scored, but in the process, you swapped in 10 more points from “what’s-his-nuts”. It never feels that way though. We play this trick on ourselves, where we forget the players we swapped out who busted and, instead, focus on only the winners that we just missed out on.
This week, I thought I’d review my Week 15 main tournament lineup as it evolved through the week. I screenshot (screenshotted?) them, as evidence. Let’s have a look at what could have been!
SCORE – 105.62
You see by the dating that this was my first run at it, Tuesday, before having done any real research. C. Kaepernick was a pure matchup play. L. Bell was L. Bell. I had seen a stat regarding Green Bay’s leaky run defense of late, and my eyes had seen the same thing, which led me to J. Howard. D. Adams was based on how the Bears defended the Packers in that Thursday night game earlier this year, wiping out J. Nelson and leaving Adams to do all the work. I clicked A. Robinson in based on the price, and M. Wallace in because the Eagles allow big plays. For K. Rudolph, it was partly because of the Colts’ injuries/suspensions on defense, and partly because he is sneakily on every tight end target statistic, including all the red zone ones. J. Hill was purely based on volume in that offense, and the Ravens are a good defense that felt too cheap.
SCORE – 98.02
This was a couple hours later, Tuesday. I just wasn’t comfortable with Jeremy Hill’s yardage upside in a tournament lineup. Also, @ScottBarrettDFS had gotten to me about Robinson’s matchup with A.J. Bouye.
SCORE – 90.64
We are officially going the wrong way! By Wednesday, I was feeling more bullish on the Chargers to bounce back against Oakland. They were home, with no weather concerns, and I suspected that no Melvin Gordon meant more passing. The Gazelle’s numbers in non-Denver games had come to my attention, so I went with him over Inman. To make it work, I swapped out Howard for Hill.
SCORE – 136.82
Total overhaul. Wednesday night, I had gotten my top-level analysis done. My main takeaway was that from a floor/ceiling perspective, Ezekiel Elliott and Odell Beckham were close to Bell and Johnson, but significantly cheaper. That left a bunch of rejiggering. I went down to Alex Smith at quarterback, exclusively to pick on that Tennessee matchup. I went down from K. Rudolph to L. Green at tight end, based mainly on the numbers that showed Green’s targets were fine, despite his snap count. I went down at DST to the Jaguars, which was basically as low as I was comfortable going (Brock Osweiler – basically comfort food for your DST). Then, I added in two guys who would end up in the Grout for the week, C. Coleman and C. Meredith.
SCORE – 145.96
This was just as I finished writing The Grout overnight. You can see I picked Taylor over Smith here, just as in the article. I had locked in on Mike Wallace as a tournament winner, and in order to fit him in, it was necessary to go down from M. Lee to J. Forsett. I was fine with Forsett, specifically for tournaments, where his ownership would be miniscule. I was certain he had taken the starting gig from Booker (which he did), and that the way you beat New England with backs was through the air.
Things are going to start going downhill from here, so as a reminder to myself, my best lineup came right after I finished the 10-hour process of researching and writing.
SCORE – 130.86
I still liked Forsett’s value for $3,000, but figured that Melvin Gordon’s role, even occupied by a lesser player, had more upside. To make Farrow work, I had to go down from Green to Griffin, who I had gotten very high on at this point and from C. Meredith to M. Lee.
SCORE – 119.66
You’ll notice this is at 2 am Saturday night / Sunday morning. More on that in a bit. I had just listened to theseige and stevietpfl on the Thursday Morning Grind, while shoveling snow. I bailed on Elliott, despite all my thoughts on his price being too cheap, because of the Tampa Bay defense. Also, filed under the heading of Game Theory, I decided (incorrectly) that there was no way I was going to be happy having Taylor but unhappy I had Watkins. With that change, from Elliott to Watkins, it allowed me to go back up at tight end to Rudolph and from M. Lee back to C. Meredith.
My last swap was early Sunday morning, where I flipped to a defense my Friday Night Live co-host, dean78904 suggested, the Giants, using my extra salary.
There you have it. Unfortunately, what you won’t see is the image for the lineup I swapped to at 11:30 am central time, on Sunday. You see, Sunday morning, we had a birthday party for my 3-year-old son. We had to leave at 8 am, and it was done at 11:30. That’s the reason I was up until 3 am Saturday night, when no dad, whose children are up at 5:30 am like literal clock-work, should be up that late. I was trying to get all the work I typically do Sunday morning done early.
When we got out of the party, I called my buddy KillaB2482, just to get the skinny on what was going on. He noted the weather in Baltimore was windy, which meant to me, I had to bail on deep-ball-dependent Mike Wallace. Fortunately, it was an exactly even swap to Ty Montgomery, who had very little competition for the ball in the Green Bay backfield, and who, like Davante Adams, thrived in the earlier Thursday night game with the Bears. I clicked him in, and my whole family scurried into the Lego store for the second half of the birthday party.
The problem? I was tired. I was rushed. I wasn’t on my laptop, where I normally work. I didn’t click “Save” before I put my phone to sleep. Wah, Wah, Wah-Waaaaaahhhhhh. The non-click left me at 121.66 instead of 144.96, a 23-point mistake.
Complete app-incompetence to the side, I think this was an excellent exercise, and I encourage you all to try it. Screen shot your lineups, as you save them, and when you make changes, write notes to yourself about why. You can then look back at the evolution of your lineup through the day or week. For me, it let me know that when I’m the most researched, I’m at my best, which is good to know.
Also, if you’re the type of person who has #ragrets, it’ll keep a good tab about what could have been.
Previously On The Fantasy Grout
I skipped the Stuff Happened piece this week. Unless there’s massive backlash, which would be especially unlikely this late in the season, I’m probably not doing it anymore. I’m burnt out, having written more over the last 3.5 months than I ever have before in my life. Considering that article got stale basically the second I clicked “Mark for Review,” it hardly seems worth it. I’m going to migrate a large portion of it into the comments section below, for anyone that misses it.
The picks returned to earth this week, after 8 of 12 were over 3 PT/$K last week. Unfortunately, my best Grout player was only mentioned in passing:
“And as a leftover NOTE from last week, I’ll mention that if C.J. Fiedorowicz is unable to play this week, Ryan Griffin makes an even better $2,500 tight end than Gresham.”
I did swap my personal Grout for a Shout pick to Griffin, when it became official that Fiedorowicz was out, and I’m glad I did. He helped me finish second for the week, and helped me pull within one of JMToWin, 8-7.
The Fantasy Grout
$6,000-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End
TIGHT END
Charles Clay was the only tight end to make it to 20 points last week (20.2). No one at the position cracked the 100-yard mark. There were nine total tight end scores, six of which were on the main slate. The only statistical category where tight ends did alright was receptions, where Jason Witten (10), Kyle Rudolph (8), Ryan Griffin (8), and Charles Clay (7) all had 7-or-more. It continues to be the case that paying down at tight end is the single best value on DraftKings, while the upside of the top-tier has is unmatched.
That said, I think I’ve come up with the optimal strategy to pick a tight end. Volume. If you ignore yardage upside, ignore touchdown upside, and instead just Find All Targets (FAT), you’re most likely to not bust at the position, while also having some upside. Yes, the FAT tight end strategy.
YADA, YADA
Jermaine Gresham, $2,500 AT SEA – Low upside in a bad matchup, but he’s a FAT tight end, if ever there’s been one. He’s had target totals of 5, 7, 6, and 10 working back over the last four weeks. which have been good for 2.88, 3.80, 4.08, and 5.80 PT/$K. He’s a PerpCorbTocks All-Star. Also, … Jermaine … to the conversation is that Earl Thomas is out for the year.
GANG GROUT
Editor’s Note: Per CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, Jordan Reed has been ruled OUT for Week 16.
Vernon Davis, $3,000 AT CHI – The Redskins are an overcrowded orphanage. There’s a lot of mouths to feed. Yet, Jordan Reed never went hungry, averaging 9 targets, 6.5 grabs, and 70 yards through Week 12. Then, he was injured in Week 13 and played hurt in Weeks 14 and 15.
In the three games that Reed missed outright, Davis logged 97%, 97%, and 98% of snaps, catching 12 of 15 balls for 176 yards and a score, despite some tough matchups. If you roll in Weeks 14 and 15, where Davis played 79% and 69% of snaps with Reed limited, the totals are exactly 5 targets per game, exactly 4 grabs per game, and exactly 40 yards per game. There’s extra food to go around.
Here’s the thing though. Davis is a different type of player than Reed and fills a different role. He’s a vegan in this weird orphanage example I started. The other children (P. Garcon / J. Crowder) eat the extra meat and potatoes that Reed’s absence leaves (underneath, high volume), but that, in turn, frees up more veggies and salad (deep balls, I guess) for Davis.
Lastly, the matchup is one I think Davis can exploit. By the numbers, Chicago is pretty decent against the position, but those numbers include two games against Green Bay, a game against Houston in Week 1 before they had fully harnessed the Fiedorowicz/Griffin duo, and games against the Giants and San Francisco. The only real “stud” at the position they’ve faced is Delanie Walker. Over the last six weeks, they’ve allowed 7-for-84-1, 2-for-12-1, 3-for-50-1, 4-for-32, 6-for-85 and a Vance McDonald dud. I guess the matchup is extra food? I’m glad this analogy is over.
WIDE RECEIVER
Six teams this week have their highest-priced healthy receiver available to us. (I’m counting Stefon Diggs as out.) From the list of players that I never thought would be this cheap, Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins were the 7th/18th most expensive receivers in Week 1, but are two of those six this week. Not to spoil what’s to come below, but Week 16 – 2016 will go down in the annuls of history as A-Rob Week. Like liberals like to say, do you want to be on the wrong side of history?
YADA, YADA
Pierre Garcon, $4,900 AT CHI – There are a lot of great Grout WRs this week, so Garcon is not officially on the Yada, Yada list. But you know, extra meat and potatoes.
Anquan Boldin, $4,100 AT DAL – My mother-in-law wins every time she plays slots.
That’s what my family mythology says, anyway. She always wins. She can rattle off on more than a handful of her big scores. She never really mentions losing, though, and I’m pretty sure she goes to the casino a lot. Yet she only “wins”. How that happens, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
The point is that like teams against Dallas, she crushes in the slot. Boldin, who will face that Cowboy slot coverage next, may actually be older than my mother-in-law. She’s been 39 for at least 20 years. I don’t care how old he is. His game, the one of being a bigger man than the guy covering him, ages extremely well. Boldin is tied for 10th in the NFL in red zone targets and tied for 3rd in red zone scores. He’s converting a high percentage of those thanks to his Man% which is 235% on a scale of 1-100%. A score against Dallas is very likely, and if it doesn’t happen, we’ll just not talk about it.
Cameron Meredith, $4,700 VS WAS – Speaking of red zone targets, The CamMer has seven in the four games he’s played with Matt Barkley, including three last week. That seven, prorated over fourteen games, would be good for 2nd in the category in all the NFL. He’s become another Glenda in the slot, if you will.
Not only that, but over the Redskins’ last six games, they’ve gotten pounded by inside receivers:
Stefon Diggs – 13/164
Randall Cobb – 3/84
Cole Beasley – 5/56
Larry Fitzgerald – 10/78
Jordan Matthews – 8/79
Ted Ginn – 4/64/1
Stop. CamMer Time.
GANG GROUT
Ted Ginn, $4,500 VS ATL – Speaking of the Carolina Panthers’ WR1…
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. He still drops the ball, literally and figuratively, which is not a great quality for a wide receiver to have. If you can get past that, you should because man does he get past safeties.
Ginn has put up the equivalent of 3x his $4.5K salary in 4 of 5 weeks, going for 4x once and 5x once in that span. He’s averaged just over 6 targets per game over that period. Now, he’s home against the Falcons, who have allowed the 7th most points on the 7th most plays per game. I expect the Panthers to connect on at least two deep ones. Who will catch them? To quote Wu-Tang’s Protect Ya Neck,“Ah yeah! A Ginn and A Ginn.”
Allen Robinson, $4,600 VS TEN
December Luke: “Yes, Luke Louison from August of 2016, in the future, you’ll be able to click in Allen Robinson in the best matchup possible for only $4,600, and best of all, people will fade him!”
August Luke: “For real? Is he injured?”
DL: “Nope. Played all 14 games to this point.”
AL: “Have they become a running team or something?”
DL: “Not even close. They are a bottom four team in terms of running back carries, and Robinson is tied for 11th in the NFL in targets.”
AL: “He was a red zone beast last year. Have they at least gone away from him there?”
DL: “Tied for 7th in the NFL in Red Zone targets. No man, very active there.”
AL: “Is Bortles injured? Is this a Chad Henne situation?”
DL: “No, but yes. Chad Henne Situations, don’t always require Chad Henne, and with the way Bortles is playing right now, it’s definitely a Chad Henne Situation.”
That’s it. If you can’t stomach any receiver with Bortles playing at his current level, you have a way to fade Allen Robinson. There’s no other way to justify it. Let A-Rob Week commence!
RUNNING BACK
Three 30-point backs. Rinse. Repeat.
It’s amazing how quickly things change. Last year, all the upside was in the wide receiver position. This year, we get three 30-pointers at running back regularly, and unlike the receivers of a year ago, the floor is much higher among these elite backs, thanks to bonkers guaranteed usage.
Which brings me to the salaries this week. Sure, there’s only 15 starting running backs over $5,500, but that’s where all the good ones are. I’m partial to E. Elliott, D. Murray, and J. Howard this week, but you never need an excuse to play L. McCoy, L. Bell, and D. Johnson. Play them. Then, just read the next section for fun.
Just don’t play Gurley. Money doesn’t grow on trees, you know?!
YADA, YADA
Duke Johnson, Sr., $3,500 VS SD – We had one win and one loss recommending Crowell over the last two weeks. For the rubber match, I’m going to the Duke (who threw at his own son in a father/son game). Speaking of throwing, Griffin threw his way seven times on 50% of the snaps last week, and this week, we could see more of the same.
Frank Gore, $4,800 AT OAK – Davis. Boldin. Now Gore. Old Guy Special this week. This is nothing more than reliable volume in a good matchup. Frankly, you could write “Reliable Volume” on Gore’s gravestone.
Who am I kidding? Frank Gore is never going to die.
GANG GROUT
Kenneth Farrow, $5,000 AT CLE – You know when you hit “Print,” and nothing happens. What’s the first thing you do? You hit “Print” again, right? That’s what I’m doing here.
He put up a dud last week, despite getting 75% of snaps, 15 carries and 3 targets, but I’m just pushing the button again. (Maybe I mis-clicked?) He’s still in a game flow independent role, which makes him much safer than other low-cost options. The Browns have ceded the third most running back scores, which bodes well, for a team that features backs in the red zone.
But, if the paper doesn’t come out again and you click “Print” a third time, that IT guy is going to roll his eyes at you!
Jerick McKinnon, $4,000 AT GB – If I tell you a Grout receiver has averaged six targets, just under six receptions, and 39 yards and has one score over a four-week period, it wouldn’t surprise you that I recommended him, would it? What if that receiver also has averaged 9 carries for 29 yards on the ground over that span? You might guess he’s not actually a receiver. You cheated and read his name and the section he was in, didn’t you?!
That’s just what McKinnon has done in this new role with new offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur. Now, without Peterson and Diggs in the lineup, in a game they are likely playing catch up, it’s an opportunity that’s hard to pass up.
QUARTERBACK
One quarter of quarterbacks are priced at the minimum, $5,000, this week, and we’re not spending a penny more than that!
YADA, YADA
Blake Bortles, $5,000 VS TEN – Not only can I stomach a receiver with Bortles, I have an iron gut. Give me Bortles himself!
In the freezing cold, Alex Smith put up just 163 yards passing and one (rushing) score last week against Tennessee. Before that? 300-yard games in 6 of 8. I named off the quarterbacks last week, who had torched Tennessee for 300 yards, and candidly, they were bad players. It comes full-circle this week, as one of those subpar signal callers was Bortles, who had 337 yards and three scores against Tennessee in Week 8.
Bortles to Robinson. What could go wrong?
GANG GROUT
Matt Barkley, $5,000 VS WAS – He’s definitely got a dip in for this picture, right?
Good we’re all on the same page there.
So, anyway, Barkley in three non-blizzard games, has averaged 43 attempts, 297 yards, and 2 scores. They’re letting him wing in it, and the Bears pass attack has taken off because of it. Now he’s got an extra weapon back, in Jeffery, to go with CamMer and the crew.
That matches up nicely against the Redskin’s pass defense that is basically the opposite of isometric training. When you do isometric exercises, you face resistance from a force you can’t move, usually an inanimate object, like a wall. That wall gives you no encouragement and instead stops your progress completely, where as Washington’s defense, doesn’t stop you at all (300 yards and multiple scores to 5 of 6 QBs), and they run up the score on offense to help you keep going.
Last, but certainly not least, is the weather, which should be just fine in Chicago Saturday. As we’ve seen, that’s the only thing that can make his stats … dip.
MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT
Like I was taking anyone other than Allen Robinson during A-Rob Week! Here’s what Week 15 Luke had to say about this week.
