The Relief Brief: Thursday, July 28th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-07-29 02:33:55

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen
— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations
— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Thursday night is a typical Thursday short slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Ubaldo Jimenez hasn’t started a game for the Orioles since July 8th when he was shelled for five earned runs through one and a third innings against the Angels. Jiminez had been on thin ice with his manager for much of the 2016 season due to his inefficiency and poor numbers (like a 7.38 ERA, paired with a 4.94 xFIP). Tonight he’ll take on the lowly Twins in Minnesota. We should see plenty of the Orioles bullpen here, as Ubaldo has gone six innings just once in his last 12 starts. The bullpen should be well rested with the exceptions of Chaz Roe and Darren O’Day.

Kyle Gibson has not been atrocious, which is coming as close as I can to saying something positive about this Twins rotation. Gibson has gone for at least six innings in six of his last seven starts, while posting a sub four xFIP in all seven of those starts. Ryan Pressly, Buddy Boshers, Trevor May and Taylor Rogers all tossed double-digit pitches yesterday, so the ‘pen could use another lengthy outing from Gibson. The Twins actually have an above average bullpen in most statistical categories, but one glaring exception is their third worst HR/9 allowed (1.36). You may or may not know this, but the Orioles hit some dongs (150 on the season, the most in baseball).

Jose Fernandez is on quite a roll. J-Fern (if that catches on, I retain all legal rights) has gone for six or more innings in 12 of his last 13 starts, including seven or more innings in nine of those 13 starts. The Cardinals do hit righties very well (third best wOBA in baseball vs righties), but I don’t expect anything to change. For as good as J-Fern has been this season overall, he’s been even better at home, posting a 2.18 xFIP. The Marlins bullpen is well rested and really shouldn’t have to work very much in this game. Move along.

How could I pass up on the chance to write about Chris Sale? Some people talk about how “angry” Tom Brady is better than normal Tom Brady. Will it be the same with Chris Sale? This is just speculation, but I expect an angry Chris Sale to take the hill against the Cubs tonight, and I expect him to have a good outing. Now for some numbers…. Sale has gone at least six innings in 16 of his 19 starts on the season (we are cutting – pun intended – his last start, in which he didn’t actually start). The Cubs have the second best wOBA vs lefties in baseball, and they may have broken out of their offensive funk in the late innings last night. If Sale does struggle, the White Sox bullpen is among the worst in the league, but they will be fresh for tonight. There are three options here – Fade this situation completely, take some Cubs bats and hope that angry Sale is not good, and lastly, consider rostering Sale in hopes that angry Sale cuts through the Cubs lineup like a pair of scissors cuts through… well, you know.

Yordano Ventura has been a picture of inconsistency this season. In his 19 starts on the season, he has gone fewer than six innings on eight occasions, while allowing three or more runs in eleven of those starts. Ventura got pegged with a line drive off the ribs in his last start and could be dealing with added soreness. The big issue here is that Ventura will be facing a tough offense in an offensive friendly environment, and the best arms out of the bullpen will be tired at best. Joakim Soria (20 pitches), Wade Davis (33 pitches) and Kelvin Herrera (12 pitches) all worked hard in holding the lead yesterday. The Rangers will be facing an inconsistent starter and a fatigued bullpen.

Tanner Roark had one of his few poor starts of the season in his last time out. Roark has otherwise been very reliable in 2016. He has averaged just shy of six and a half innings through 20 starts and has allowed four or more runs only six times. He’s been able to give his bullpen rest, and that will be the hope once again tonight. The Nationals bullpen has been strong, but it is in a state of flux right now as Jonathan Papelbon has blown two straight saves while getting lit up. Changes may be coming to the back end of the ‘pen, but there are enough reliable arms in house to piece things together for now (as the Nationals did yesterday). Every arm should be available with the exception of Felipe Rivero, who has worked in consecutive games.

Take a guess at how many times Johnny Cueto has gone six or more innings in his 20 starts on the season. If you guessed 18 times, you are correct. In those other two starts that he didn’t reach six innings, he threw five innings. That’s crazy consistency for a starting pitcher! He is averaging over seven innings per outing. Dang. Combine that with a very well rested bullpen, and a pitchers park, and this could very well be a low scoring affair.

Jered Weaver spells his name in peculiar fashion. Rather, his parents chose to spell his name in peculiar fashion. It’s not his fault. What is his fault is the 23 dongs he’s given up on the season. Tonight, Jered takes the hill against the Red Sox, and I don’t even think that the “marine-layer” can help him in this spot. Meanwhile, the Angels bullpen has the fourth worst SIERA in baseball. I would expect the Red Sox to see plenty of said bullpen along with a below average starting pitcher.

David Price has been up and down this season. His peripheral numbers remain strong, but his ability to work deep into ballgames has been rocky. From early May to mid-June, Price went eight straight starts of at least six innings. In his other 13 starts on the season, he has thrown fewer than six innings seven times. This is an Angels offense that puts the ball in play (league low 15.4 K% vs lefties). Price has struggled with allowing hard contact, which may not play in his favor against a team that makes so much contact (38.2% hard contact to righties). The Red Sox could use a quality start for their bullpen, as they’ve had to work hard (and has been hit hard) over the last five days.

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Rangers got some bullpen help in LHP Dario Alvarez and (potential starter or reliever) RHP Lucas Harrell from the Braves. It can’t hurt for one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

The Brewers recalled Michael Blazek from AAA. Blazek has been beaten up in the minors, so he will likely take on a mop-up role.

The Rockies places Jason Motte on the 15-day DL.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Today, I want to use this section to ask you what else you would like to see in this article.

Are there any stats that you’re missing out on that you want me to include?

What would you like to see more of?

This article is intended to help you, so keep reading and keep the thoughts, questions and discussion coming.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

Legend