The Relief Brief: Thursday, September 1st

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-02 02:54:56

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Thursday night features a small, three game slate. Today, I’ll break down every situation and rank the bullpens accordingly.

1. Bullpen Highlights

Jose Urena has been solid over his last two starts, in which he has combined for 11.2 innings, three earned runs and nine strikeouts. Unfortunately, the larger sample size is less encouraging with a 5.83 ERA and an xFIP hovering just shy of 5. Urena hasn’t pitched beyond six innings in his major league career, and is highly unlikely to change that tonight. Expect to see a healthy dose of the Marlins bullpen tonight as they try to right the ship after a rough month of August (fourth worst SIERA in baseball).

Jacob deGrom hasn’t quite been himself over his last two starts. In his last two outings, deGrom has allowed 13 earned runs and four home runs over 9.2 innings pitched. deGrom had his turn in the rotation skipped in order to allow him to work out some mechanical issues, and the general expectation is that he will bounce back in this spot against a scuffling offensive lineup in a pitcher friendly park. Beyond deGrom, the Mets bullpen is still one of the best in baseball despite some recent struggles. There’s no reason to go here.

Jeff Samardzija bounced back in the month of August after a poor July. In his last four starts, Samardzija has only allowed five earned runs through 25 plus innings. Jeff will need to be at his best tonight as the struggling Giants take on the world leading Chicago Cubs. Expect Samardzija to battle through his outing tonight, which could lead to some middle relief from the Giants, which is not a strength of that bullpen unit. Overall, this is a unit that has been up and down this season, though the month of August was one of their best as a group. The Cubs can beat up on even the strongest bullpen.

Mike Montgomery threw 91 pitches in his last outing, which is the most amount of pitches he’s thrown in any major league outing this season. Montgomery shouldn’t be expected to work beyond that 90-95-pitch area tonight, which should put him around six innings (if he can pitch up to his abilities). The Cubs bullpen has unsurprisingly been excellent since the trade deadline. Their strikeout percentage of 28.6 (in August) is second only to the Astros who own a 28.9 strikeout percentage.

Jose Quintana has 11 straight outings of six innings or more. Quintana is starting to figure out how to work deep into ballgames, which will serve him well tonight as he is backed up by a bottom five bullpen. Expect Quintana to have a longer leash given the current form of this bullpen. The White Sox are easily the worst bullpen on the slate, but the starting pitcher takes away from some of the potential for us here.

Ervin Santana has seven straight starts of six innings or more. Santana has legitimately been a reliable starter this season, which is more than the Twins can say about everyone else in their rotation. For that reason, Santana has been given a longer leash, even when he isn’t pitching at his best. This Twins bullpen sits around the league average in most categories, but they did post the seventh worst SIERA in baseball during the month of August.

Daily Bullpen Rankings (best bullpens of the day to worst bullpens of the day)

1. Chicago Cubs
2. New York Mets
3. Miami Marlins
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Minnesota Twins
6. Chicago White Sox

We want to pick on the bullpens at the bottom

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Braves activated Chris Withrow from the 15-Day DL. Withrow has been one of the few reliable arms for the Braves this season, and should help the struggling unit.

The Mets acquired Fernando Salas from the Angels. Salas has been underwhelming this season, but he had been closing games for the Angels recently due to injuries. Salas is expected to move into a seventh or eighth inning role for the Mets.

3. Other Notes And Insights

Prior to August, the San Francisco Giants had led baseball with 18 blown saves. Both the Rockies and the Marlins blew 8 saves apiece in the month of August, which took the Giants out of first place in that undesirable category.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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