The Relief Brief: Thursday, September 8th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-09 19:48:56

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Check the bottom of the written portion for an exclusive DraftKings contest for The Relief Brief readers.

Thursday night features a small six-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights.

1. Bullpen Highlights

Dan Straily had been pitching well until recently. In his last two starts, Straily has pitched 8.1 innings with 11 hits, eight walks, five home runs and eight earned runs allowed. The opposition and the environment will work somewhat in his favor, but the Pirates are capable of taking advantage of mediocre pitching. The Reds bullpen looked like it was on the rebound, but has since fallen back into their embarrassingly bad pitching with a 1.52 HR/9 allowed over the last 30 days.

Alec Asher started seven games for the Phillies last season, and pitched beyond five innings just once. In fact, in his seven starts, Asher accumulated a grand total of 29 innings pitched (just a hair over four innings per outing). In Asher’s last four minor league starts, he hasn’t pitched beyond four innings (though he was rehabbing). Don’t expect Asher to last beyond five innings tonight against the Nationals. The Phillies ‘pen has given up the second most HR/9 over the last 30 days at 1.66.

A.J. Cole has made three starts since being called up at the end of August. Cole has had mixed results. He has thrown a combined 18.2 innings with eight earned runs, four home runs, seven walks and 17 strikeouts. What we like here is that Cole has managed to pitch deep into games against the Orioles and the Mets, which should bode well for him tonight against the Phillies. The Nationals remain a strong bullpen unit, and there is very little to like here from a Phillies bat standpoint.

Alex Cobb made a successful big league return in his first start in nearly two full years. Cobb held the Blue Jays to two runs through five innings while striking out seven hitters. Cobb only threw 84 pitches, but that number should be on the rise as he gets his arm stretched out a bit more. Expect Cobb to make it through five to six innings again tonight before handing it over to the Rays ‘pen. The Rays bullpen has been perfectly average on the season, but they have allowed 1.31 HR/9 in 2016.

Jeff Hoffman hasn’t pitched poorly on the surface, but the advanced stats start to get ugly pretty quickly. Hoffman has a 6.44 xFIP (through just 15 innings pitched) with a HR/9 rate of 2.40. It is an unfairly small sample size, but there isn’t much on the positive side to balance things out (just five K’s to go along with eight BB’s). The Padres aren’t necessarily a team that is going to capitalize on mediocre pitching, but this could be a nice spot for them. Hoffman is unlikely to go beyond five to six innings, and the Rockies ‘pen has been on a downward spiral since the All-Star break (and they weren’t very good before that anyways).

Since returning from the DL, Derek Holland has made three consecutive starts of exactly six innings, with his pitch count going from 73 to 84 to 108. Holland has been stretched out at this point, but he will have to face the hot hitting Mariners in Seattle tonight. This is a spot where Holland may be extended little bit in hopes of limiting the amount of work for this bullpen. The Rangers relief unit has improved over the second half of the season, but they are giving up a lot of walks and own a 4.13 SIERA over the last 30 days.

Taijuan Walker has allowed 18 earned runs over his last five starts, and has not been missing his normal amount of bats. The Rangers are capable of putting up some numbers, so expect Walker to battle through five to six tough innings tonight. The interesting thing here is that the once elite Mariners bullpen has been struggling greatly over the last month of play, including a HR/9 number of 1.68. This spot has some sneaky appeal as well.

My Favorite Bullpens To Pick On

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Cincinnati Reds

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Padres recalled Jacob Smith from AA. Smith is expected to be a low-leverage arm the rest of the way.

Darren O’Day is expected to make his return off of the DL this weekend, which will be a nice boost the the Baltimore ‘pen if he can stay healthy.

3. Other Notes And Insights

I’m going to create an NFL Week 1 GPP contest on DraftKings for readers. Simply comment with your DK username and I’ll send you a link for the contest.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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