10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 23rd
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, May 23, 2016.
1. Anyone who played MLB DFS last year (or I suppose anyone who followed baseball closely) remembers the insanity that was Chris Sale striking out 10+ batters in all eight of his starts from May 23 to June 30, tying Pedro Martinez’s record of consecutive double-digit-strikeout games set in 1999. You basically had to play Sale in those starts. Clayton Kershaw is currently riding a streak of six consecutive games of 10+ strikeouts. If he strikes out 10 or more Reds on Monday, he’ll tie Nolan Ryan (1977), Pedro Martinez (also 1999 – yeah, he did it twice in the same year), and Randy Johnson (2001) with seven consecutive games of 10+ Ks, and he’ll be one game away from Sale’s and Pedro’s record. Oddly, this streak is the first time Kershaw has ever had double-digit Ks in more than three straight games in his entire career. This is peak Kershaw, and these are the most predictable points you’ll ever find in DFS.
2. In the past five games, Giancarlo Stanton has struck out in 15 of his 21 plate appearances for a 71.4 K%. He does not have a hit during that stretch, and he has a -68 wRC+. On the other hand, Stanton leads all active players with a career .321 ISO against southpaws. On Monday, he’ll meet Tampa Bay lefty Matt Moore, who has already allowed six homers allowed to righties this year. Stanton’s price has plummeted across the industry – he costs $3,400 at FanDuel (not a typo), the same as Brandon Guyer. For those who don’t believe in hot and cold streaks, Monday might be the time to put your money where your mouth is.
3. Only one outfielder in MLB ranks in the top six in in ISO against left-handed batters (min. 150 PA) and right-handed batters (min. 400 PA) since 2015. It’s not Mike Trout. It’s not Bryce Harper. It’s not Giancarlo Stanton. It’s Oakland’s Khris Davis (.257 ISO against lefties, .259 ISO against righties during that stretch). Davis has homered six times in the past two weeks, tied for the most in MLB. On Monday, he faces…
4. Taijuan Walker, who allowed just one home run in his first five starts of 2016 (30.0 IP) on a 4.8% HR/FB rate. Then the wheels fell off. In the three starts since (12.2 IP), he’s allowed five homers on a 31.3% HR/FB rate. Over the past calendar year, Walker’s 1.27 HR/9 is the 11th-highest mark in MLB.
5. Drew Pomeranz is allowing just 5.5 hits per nine innings this year, the fourth-best mark in all of MLB and trailing only Jake Arrieta (4.7), Danny Salazar (4.9), and Chris Sale (5.1). He ranks in the top 10 in strikeouts per nine, as well, with an 11.0 mark that is tied with elite strikeout guys like Danny Salazar, Vincent Velasquez and Noah Syndergaard and is even a tick better than Madison Bumgarner (10.9 K/9). The walks are a problem, though – he’s issuing 4.1 per nine, tied (with Salazar) for 12th-most in MLB. However, he could be okay in Monday’s start – despite the Giants’ reputation as a disciplined team at the plate, they’re actually the fifth-worst team in MLB in BB% against LHP since 2015 (6.8%).
6. Pomeranz’s opponent on the mound on Monday, Johnny Cueto, seems to have regained his old form this year after scuffling in the second half of 2015. He’s going deep into games, having made it through seven frames in eight of his nine starts this year – only Kershaw has lasted seven innings in more games. And just as importantly, he’s limiting the long ball – his 0.27 HR/9 is the best of any player not named Jose Quintana. Against the Padres, who Cueto has dominated this year (two complete games, 19 strikeouts to three walks, just one earned run), and who on Saturday made Alex Wood look like his also-a-lefty-but-much-more-talented-in-the-K-department teammate, Cueto has the upside to match Kershaw’s point total on Monday.
7. Since the start of 2015, no second baseman in MLB has hit for a higher ISO than Rougned Odor (.201). I’ve mentioned it in this column before, but Rougned Odor really prefers to hit fly ball pitchers (his .283 ISO against FB pitchers ranks 14th in MLB since 2015), and Nicholas Tropeano is just that, with a 49.2 FB% against lefties since 2015 that is the second-highest on Monday’s slate. (Alright – I made it through the Odor note without inserting some hackneyed joke, like, “Turns out Jose Bautista mug isn’t the only thing Odor hits hard!” or “Odor’s numbers versus fly ball pitchers are jaw-dropping!” Glad I didn’t feel the need to use a stupid joke like that here.)
8. The MLB leader in on-base percentage among third baseman since 2015 might surprise you – it’s Yunel Escobar, whose .372 mark is higher than Matt Carpenter (.370), Kris Bryant (.368), Josh Donaldson (.367), and Manny Machado (.362). Of course, those other guys have an inherent upside that Escobar lacks – of the eight third basemen in MLB with a wOBA above .340 since 2015, Escobar has the most singles…31 more than the next-highest player, as a matter of fact (Escobar has 171 singles, Manny Machado is next in line with 140). Of that same group of players, his 12 homers during that stretch is 23 lower than Mike Moustakas, the next-lowest. I only mention Escobar here because he’s a player who I always seems to pass over without a second glance when building lineups. And while his upside is probably too limited for GPPs (except in a stack), he’s an underrated cash game play in the right matchup, like today, for instance, when he faces a bad lefty (Derek Holland) in a great hitter’s park (Globe Life Park in Arlington).
9. Of all the pitchers on Monday’s slate, Ian Kennedy has allowed the most home runs to lefties (20) and the second-most home runs to righties (18) since the start of 2015. Miguel Sano and Byung Ho Park look to add to that total on Monday.
10. Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez has several trends that make him a viable SP2 against the Mets on Monday. First, recent history – since the start of 2015, he has a 1.14 ERA in four games started against the Mets. That’s the lowest of any pitcher during that span (minimum 3 games started). Second – home/road splits. Gonzalez hasn’t allowed a single extra-base hit at home in 2016, making him the only pitcher in MLB with a .000 home ISO this year. Third – lefty/righty splits. The Mets are a lefty-heavy team with a trio of power hitters (Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Michael Conforto) who will be neutralized against Gonzalez and his .067 ISO against lefties since 2015 (tied with Pomeranz for third-best in MLB among starters with 40.0 IP). Even switch-hitting Neil Walker has been far better against RHP in his career (87 wRC+ versus lefties, 122 wRC+ against righties). Gio has the (deserved) reputation of being volatile because of his walks, but his 6.5 BB% this year is the lowest of his career. All of the SP2 options on Monday are flawed, and Gio might have the most working in his favor.