Week 17 - In Which We Talkin' About Practice
Practice.
It matters.
It really does.
They say “Practice makes perfect.” In second grade, I had a teacher who said “Perfect practice makes perfect.” I disagreed with her then, and I still disagree with her – the point of practice, after all, is to improve and perfect on the things you are doing, and if you are too focused on “perfection” in practice, you’ll be too scared to take chances and try new things and figure out places where you can improve. Of course, I understand that this garnished version of the classic phrase is intended to convey that you need to strive toward perfection even in practice, but my logical and analytical brain – the same brain that took everything literally and led my six-year-old self to argue with my mom that it was okay for me to eat four dozen eggs each morning for breakfast because Gaston said in ‘Beauty and the Beast’ that he ate four dozen eggs every morning as a lad to help him grow large – could only take this phrase at face value and argue that the idea of “perfect practice” was fundamentally opposed to the purpose of “practice” in the first place…which is all a sideshow to convey what a joy I was to be around as a kid.
Practice. We talkin’ about practice.
And we’re talking about how much it matters.
Every Monday this year, I have written an article for Rotoworld in which I help readers get an early start on their week of DFS preparation. This week, I focused on the expectations for each team – from a standpoint of “what each team has to play for in Week 17, and which teams are likeliest to come out flat and do very little.”
In that article, I pointed out that every team comes out on Sunday with a strong desire to win. Every team takes the field and tries to give it their all; after all, these are NFL players, and they are competitive, and they don’t want to lay down for anyone…
But guess what? Coming out on Sunday with a desire to win is not enough. Not even close.
Everything in the NFL has been designed to create parity. The NFL is a league in which the Rams can come out and beat the Seahawks, the Falcons can come out and beat the Panthers, and the Ravens can come out and beat the Steelers – all on the same Sunday. The level of talent and coaching acumen is similar enough across the board that if a team lets up enough, they’ll be in position to fall.
And usually, this “letting up” does not occur on the field on Sunday. It occurs during the week. It occurs during practice.
I pointed out in that Monday article this week that there are a few teams (for example: the Dolphins, and the Titans) who seem to have mailed it in at this point. Certainly the players on these teams wake up on Sunday and have a desire to win, but one can comfortably hypothesize – given the poor execution and organization we have seen from these teams on the field the last few weeks – that the players are not practicing the same way they would if their game on Sunday had everything on the line.
Practice. It matters.
It matters for the athletes we roster each week in DFS.
And it matters for us.
It matters for you.
Last week was a weird week for me (as, I am sure, it was for all of us) in terms of DFS. You see, one of the things I love about NFL DFS is that we have an entire week to prepare; that extra time gives me enough leeway and freedom to really think through everything, and to really narrow things down to the plays I like the most. Because I generally focus solely on NFL during these four, glorious months, I am able to use each week fully – leaving no stone unturned, leaving nothing behind.
Last week, however, was Christmas. There was a lot going on. And on top of that, it was a bit of a weird DFS week. I needed to invest a lot of time last week to achieve the success I expect from myself, and instead I invested less time than normal.
By Sunday morning, I had decided my favorite receivers on the weekend were: Brandon Marshall, Brandin Cooks, Allen Hurns, and Michael Floyd. I had decided my favorite quarterback was Blake Bortles, and my favorite running backs were Buck Allen and DeAngelo Williams.
But I couldn’t bring myself to move off Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. I had decided, in a point-per-dollar sense, that I liked the other guys more…but I was too scared to move away from the Steelers’ receivers altogether. Typically, I hit a snag such as this on Friday or Saturday as I prep for the weekend; typically, by Saturday night, I have worked through this snag and committed to using the team I like the most, even if it’s scary to fade a couple particular players on that team. But this last week – with less time invested – I didn’t hit that snag until Sunday morning, and I was unable to fully work through it.
I did end up using Bortles, Hurns, and Buck on my tournament team (though I paired them with Brown and Martavis – which left me just barely cashing in some tourneys and just barely finishing out of the money in others), but I then did something that is always a mistake when I do it – something I had managed to avoid doing through the first 15 weeks of the season:
I chose not to use my tournament team in cash games. Instead, I built a separate, “safer” cash game team.
If you’ve read enough of my writing, you know why I like to use my tournament team in cash games, so I won’t get into that now. But building a separate, “safer” team for cash is a mistake I used to make all the time, and it was the correction of this mistake that really vaulted my DFS play to the next level.
Week 16? Not so much.
On my “safer” team, I replaced Bortles with Ben Roethlisberger. I got rid of Hurns. I got rid of Buck Allen. I had my worst cash game week of the season – and my worst overall week since Week 3.
It was a weird week, sure. It was a strange week in DFS. But I don’t blame that.
I blame my week of preparation. I blame my “practice.”
Practice – it matters.
With a bit more time invested, I would have been working through my “Sunday morning questions” by Saturday afternoon. I would have worked through those questions fully by Saturday night. I would have built (and held onto) a team that actually had the players I liked the most. And I would have had a huge weekend as a result.
Practice.
Allen Iverson says the word “Practice” 24 times in that “We talkin’ about practice” video. I’ve now used the word “practice” 17 times – oh, wait, make it 18. I don’t think I’ll get to 24…
But we are talking about practice.
(19)
And we are talking about this:
This is the last week of the NFL DFS season. It’s easy to get sidetracked this week. We have NBA in full effect. We have New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. We have college bowl games and New Year’s resolutions and everything else. But we also have one last chance for you to make the most of your NFL DFS opportunity – one last chance for you to have the weekend that makes your entire season. We have one last chance for you to pour everything you can into your preparation for the week – for you to set your final roster on Sunday morning and be able to say, “I don’t regret the way I used my time this week – I completed my NFL research and preparation and did everything I could to turn this into my best weekend of the season.” We have one last chance for you to dominate.
It’s not about what you do on Sunday. It’s not about sitting down and throwing together a team and hoping it does well.
It’s about what you do during the week. It’s about what you do right now.
It’s about practice. Preparation. The week leading up to the game.
And it just might be about the following players as well:
QUARTERBACKS
Cam Newton vs Buccaneers: There are some pretty obvious options at quarterback this week – and I’m okay with that. I will happily grab one of the “most obvious” quarterback plays and create differentiation elsewhere. Although Cam’s price is about as high as it gets for QBs, he is playing a poor pass defense, at home, in what amounts to a “must-win game” (the Panthers need a win to guarantee home field advantage throughout the playoffs). Things cannot stack up much better than that for the guy who has been one of the most surprisingly effective fantasy weapons on the season.
Eli Manning v Eagles: The coaching change in Philadelphia will not change the fact that the Eagles have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Better yet, the Giants also have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, which means this game should turn into a shootout – one in which Eli remains aggressive from beginning to end. This season, Eli has shown a floor that is far lower than the other top quarterback options, but he has also shown that his ceiling is as high as anyone’s when things come together just right. This is a game in which things should come together just right.
Ryan Fitzpatrick at Bills: Fitzpatrick will probably be the chalk this week, in a game the Jets need to win in order to lock themselves into a playoff spot. The Bills’ defense has been a huge disappointment this year, and the loss of Stephon Gilmore has made their pass defense even more susceptible. With Ronald Darby also questionable for this week, Fitzpatrick could have a field day – making him and both of his top weapons (Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall) very strong plays this weekend.
RUNNING BACKS
Devonta Freeman v Saints: Devonta will not “slip by” anyone, in terms of ownership, but he will also be far lower-owned than Julio Jones, as most people get more excited about picking on the Saints’ bottom-ranked pass defense than they do about picking on their bottom-ranked run defense. While I expect Julio to have a great game, however, there are more ways in which we can see him being slowed down this week than ways in which we can see Devonta being slowed down. Devonta’s bankable workload gives him a high floor, and we have seen plenty of times this season how high his ceiling can be – especially in matchups such as this one.
Javorius Allen at Bengals: The Bengals need a win in this one to stay alive for a first-round bye. The Bengals also know that they will probably be without Andy Dalton if they have to play in the first round. Each of these things – in my opinion – mean the Bengals will be fairly aggressive in this one, attacking the Ravens through the air (a win gets them in position for a first-round bye if the Broncos fall later in the day, and if they don’t land the first-round bye, this game gives them another opportunity to get AJ McCarron valuable reps that will help him in that first-round playoff game). I say all this to say: the Bengals should build a lead in this one. And when the Ravens are trailing, Javorius Allen is on the field, catching balls out of the backfield. One of the few places where the Bengals’ defense struggles is covering running backs out of the backfield, and this could all combine to give us another eight or ten catch day for the man known as “Buck.”
Frank Gore v Titans: Ask Frank Gore how many yards he needs for a 1000-yard season, and he’ll tell you off the top of his head. Ask Chuck Pagano the same question, and he’ll do the same. Gore needs 109 yards, and Gore and his head coach have talked this week about trying to get him to that mark. And anyway, what else are the Colts going to do? Let Ryan Lindley or Josh Freeman throw the ball? We could easily see 22 to 25 carries for Gore this week in what is otherwise a meaningless game for the Colts, and that alone makes Gore a really intriguing option at his low price – especially as he should carry low ownership to boot.
Pierre Thomas at Cowboys: This is a “preseason special.” This is a completely meaningless game for the Redskins, as they are locked into the number four seed no matter what. The Redskins are therefore likely to play things safe with guys who are dinged up (Matt Jones), and are likely to give a bit of rest to some of their workhorse pieces (Alfred Morris). This could leave Pierre Thomas soaking up most of the backfield work during the last three quarters of the game, and if you are bold enough to roster him, you could pick up some nice stats at a cheap price and low ownership.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Odell Beckham v Eagles: He’s back! I fully expect Beckham to come out angry and motivated this week, and while he, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins each have a good matchup this week (not to mention Brandon Marshall, who may as well be thrown in that group), I like Beckham the most of the bunch. This should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, and there will be opportunity for Beckham to see a good 12 to 15 targets, and to do massive amounts of damage with that type of workload.
A.J. Green v Ravens: Green is going to go largely overlooked this week with AJ McCarron throwing him the ball, but McCarron has actually been pretty dialed into Green, and this is – obviously – a tremendous matchup. I expect the Bengals to come out firing in this one, and if they do, we could see a good nine to 11 targets for Green throughout this game – the type of workload that can make him a top DFS option on the weekend, at what is sure to be very low ownership.
Michael Floyd v Seahawks: Time and time again this year, the Seahawks have seen big stat lines hung on them by number three wide receivers – and while Floyd is pretty much the number one weapon in this pass game at the moment, he functions as their number three receiver, which is a perfect setup for capturing fantasy goodness. Floyd has seen at least eight targets in each of his last six healthy games, and there is no reason to assume he will fall below that mark in this one, making him a more reliable option than most people will assume, while giving him the high upside he always carries.
Jermaine Kearse at Cardinals: In two of the last three weeks, Kearse led the Seahawks in targets. What’s more, the emergence of Doug Baldwin should lead to Patrick Peterson covering him all game, and the explosiveness of Tyler Lockett should lead to the Cardinals making him a priority as well. This will leave Kearse in single coverage against Justin Bethel or Jerraud Powers – which is a matchup Kearse can easily win. The Cardinals are the highest-scoring offense in the NFL and will put up points in this one, which will lead to the Seahawks remaining aggressive as well. Kearse could easily lead the Seahawks in targets yet again in this one, as he will provide their best path to aerial success.
TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski at Dolphins: I have only rostered Gronk once all season, as I have a hard time justifying his price – given the number of targets he really should be seeing at the place where he is priced. With that said, the Patriots need this win, and they are playing a mess of a Dolphins defense while still being short on offensive weapons themselves. Gronk should be leaned on heavily in this one, and while I still have a hard time justifying his price, there is no denying that he is one of the top raw-points plays on the weekend at tight end.
Greg Olsen v Buccaneers: The Buccaneers’ defense is fundamentally susceptible to tight ends, and as we expect Cam Newton to have a big day, we should also expect his weapons to be at least somewhat involved. Olsen is the most reliable weapon the Panthers have, and that means he is someone we can rely on as well. His floor is very high in this one, and he always has one of the highest ceilings of any tight end on the board.
Delanie Walker at Colts: Delanie is pretty much the Titans’ offense right now. That’s it – this is what they have. He should see double-digit targets (as he has in four of his last six games – while Gronk has seen double-digit targets just four times all season, and Olsen has seen double-digit targets just twice), and this is a great matchup for tight end production. If not for the emergence of Zach Ertz over the last couple weeks, Delanie would be the no-brainer top point-per-dollar tight end play.
Zach Ertz at Giants: Speaking of Ertz…there was a lot of time this offseason dedicated to predictions of a Zach Ertz breakout season. Then he came out and was thoroughly underused yet again. Over the last two weeks, however, Ertz has seen target totals of 17 and 13, and while we don’t get “rollover minutes” on those targets to carry them into Sunday, we should be able to comfortably predict high usage once again, in one of the best matchups in the NFL for tight ends. Ertz will be one of the most obvious plays this weekend, but he’s also one of the most obvious plays for a reason.
Of course, after you put in your “practice” and preparation, you’ll know where you want to go with all these guys yourself.
Regardless of what you decide to do, let’s meet up at the top of the leaderboards one last time on Sunday night; let’s finish this season strong!