DFS Alerts
Vogt returns to Oakland lineup, but Khris Davis sits against Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez has a career 3.6 K-BB% and even less value against an Oakland offense that strikes out 18% against RHP and on the road. They’re not a particularly potent offense with just an 88 wRC+ against RHP, but are projected for 5.3 runs tonight. Players probably should be looking at Josh Reddick (156 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP this season) and the returning Stephen Vogt (112 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP this season) in a hitter’s park, especially with Catcher being very weak tonight. Both may be cost prohibitive at $4.7K or higher on DraftKings, but cost $3.2K or less on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Nick Martinez
Brewers RHB in a great spot versus Patrick Corbin
Corbin may eventually turn into a solid major league pitcher, but he his not putting together a good season. The Brewers top hitters are certainly in play tonight as Corbin has a low 13.4% K% versus right-handed batters. This does nothing but increase the Brewers upside as an offense since we like to target them against pitchers that have trouble racking up punch outs. Ryan Braun (164 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .222 ISO vs LHP) is one of the true lefty-mashers in baseball and has continued this dominance this season posting a 37.7% Hard%. Jonathan Villar (148 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .165 ISO vs LHP) could make for an intriguing tournament play as he his priced higher than several other popular SS options. With Villar, we are paying the high price tag for stolen bases and runs, but he has definitely proven that he can also jack one out of the park on a semi-regular basis. This obviously only boosts his potential upside. Jonathan Lucroy has been sub-par versus left-handed pitching this season but is mostly due to a low .246 BABIP. It is reasonable to expect his numbers against lefties to regress as he is still hitting the ball hard (41.0% Hard% vs LHP). Chris Carter (.320 ISO vs LHP) is a great tournament play given his multiple home run upside. In addition, his HR chances only increase tonight with Corbin’s inability to consistently strikeout righties.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Carter, Patrick Corbin
LHBs are still pounding Doug Fister (.367 wOBA, 12 HRs, 38.9 GB%)
Doug Fister has a 3.42 ERA that’s nearly a run and a half below his estimators with a low strikeout rate that makes him unusable for daily fantasy purposes. He has dominated RHBs (.238 wOBA – 3 HRs – 56.6 GB%), while LHBs have continued to scorch him this season (.367 wOBA – 12 HRs – 38.9 GB%). The Yankees have eight LHBs in the lineup tonight, though only a couple can be considered above average, which may be why they are only projected for 3.9 runs. Carlos Beltran (124 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the bat you want here, less than $4K on either site, as is every bat in this lineup. Mark Teixeira has just a 56 wRC+ vs RHP in an injury riddled season, but still a .175 ISO. He costs less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Mark Teixeira, Doug Fister Andrew Cashner trade talks heating up, which may lead to him being scratched tonight
If Cashner is scratched, Paul Clemens seems to make the most sense as a spot starter. If that’s the case, the Blue Jays bats get a decent bump in value, although they are already very strong targets against Cashner, who struggles mightily on the road.
As reported by: Jon Morosi Other tagged players: Paul Clemens
Sabathia has a 4.99 SIERA, 5.4% K-BB% over his past six starts
Sabathia had nice little stretch from early-May through mid-June but seems to have fallen back to earth in his last six starts (7.46 ERA). Sabathia still actually has some respectable metrics against right-handed hitters, but his low 6.8% HR/FB rate seems primed for regression in Houston tonight. Jose Altuve (189 wRC+, .453 wOBA, .234 ISO vs LHP) is the clear overall play at the 2B and it actually is feasible to fit him into lineups given the lack of aces on the mound. Carlos Correa has strangely not exhibited a ton of power versus left-handed pitching this season (.076 ISO), but the upside is always there given his talent and position in the order. George Springer (162 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .303 ISO) is a nice little option to round out a top-of-the-order Astros stack given the recent struggles of Sabathia combined with the success Springer has had since moving to the lead off spot.
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, George Springer, CC Sabathia Jake Lamb OUT in Milwaukee vs Matt Garza
The absence of Jake Lamb will surely hurt an Arizona lineup that otherwise has no strong LH bats, but the good news is that RHBs have a .354 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% against Garza since last season. Paul Goldschmidt (145 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is strangely $4.6K or less in a good spot. Phil Gosselin is just an average hitter (111 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), but has some value in the 2nd spot for the minimum price on FanDuel. Jean Segura and Brandon Drury are the only other close to league average bats against RHP, but a high price tag or low lineup spot diminish value greatly on either one of those guys.
Other tagged players: Phil Gosselin, Matt Garza, Jean Segura, Brandon Drury The Twins are projected for more than five runs, but Harrell has just a career 23.1 Hard%
The Twins don’t often have a run projection above five runs at home against a RHP, but meet Lucas Harrell (career 4.0 K-BB%, 4.81 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 4.44 xFIP in 425 innings). The issue for us as daily fantasy players is that it’s more his control (9.0 BB%) than hard contact (23.1%) that’s done him in, perhaps tempering our interest in Minnesota bats despite the high run projection. Miguel Sano (129 wRC+, .238 ISO career vs RHP) might be an affordable exception for $4.2K or less on either site. Max Kepler has been a pleasant surprise vs RHP this year (123 wRC+, .305 ISO), but costs $4.9K on DraftKings.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Lucas Harrell, Max Kepler Contreras OUT, Russell bats fifth for Cubs against Shields
James Shields has allowed a total of eight runs in five starts over the last month, but Vegas knows what’s up, projecting the Cubs for 5.3 runs tonight. Shields has a 33.3% hard contact rate with just 16 strikeouts and a near perfect strand rate over this span. Cubs bats look strong with some reasonable price tags on either site. Dexter Fowler (141 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 170 wRC+ and 50 Hard% since returning from the DL and costs $3.3K on FanDuel. Ben Zobrist (122 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP this season) costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Addison Russell (102 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP this season) bats 5th with Contreras out tonight. He has a 200 wRC+ over the last week for $3.7K or less on either site, but LHBs (.369 wOBA since last season) hit Shields much better than RHBs (.316 wOBA) since last season, making the expensive Rizzo (171 wRC+, .314 ISO vs RHP this season) the lineup’s top overall bat.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist, James Shields Stroman and the Blue Jays are the highest favorite on the slate (-245 ML)
Stroman and Aaron Sanchez have extremely similar pitching profiles which should make us more comfortable rostering Stroman after Sanchez made easy work of the Padres last night. Stroman is a true ground ball pitcher (60.6% GB%) with good control and below-average strikeout numbers (17.3% K%), however, he has shown the ability to go deep into games which increases his strikeout upside against this strikeout-prone Padres lineup (24.6% K% vs RHP). The Padres are the second-worst offense in the majors in terms of wOBA versus right-handed pitching (.290) so this is almost the best matchup Stroman could draw based on season-long statistics. Stroman is an elite play on FanDuel considering his price and likelihood to secure a win going up against Andrew Cashner. We shouldn’t go out of our way to attack Stroman but if in need of some salary relief there are a few left-handed batters in the Padres lineup that may be able to provide some upside. Yangervis Solarte (128 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .211 ISO vs RHP), Ryan Schimpf (161 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .390 ISO vs RHP), and Alex Dickerson (142 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .262 ISO vs RHP) would be those options to consider.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Ryan Schimpf, Alex Dickerson Baltimore bats are very affordable with a 5.5 run projection at home
RHBs have a .352 wOBA and 35.7 Hard% vs Chad Bettis since last season (LHBs .323 & 28.1%), which is a bit over-stated because of Colorado. He’s not a bad pitcher, who might even be occasionally useful in a daily fantasy sense outside of Coors, but the important thing today is a reverse platoon split that actually plays into the hands of the Orioles in another very favorable hitter’s environment. They have several RHBs that have punished RHP this year, including Machado (141 wRC+, .246 ISO), Trumbo (150 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Schoop (127 wRC+, .224 ISO). The Orioles are projected for a strong third best 5.5 runs tonight, but the real surprise is the low costs of their bats without a single hitter above $4.1K on DraftKings and only Schoop above $4K on FanDuel. Although Bettis possibly deserves more respect than he’s getting from Vegas here, the daily fantasy sites are giving it to him and Baltimore might be the highest value stack tonight, still allowing players to pay up for pitching without any really high cost arms tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chad Bettis, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo Andrew Cashner has struck out 17 of his last 43 batters, but faces second highest run projection in Toronto tonight
Andrew Cashner has struck out 17 of his last 43 batters and while San Diego must be thrilled by what it might have done to his trade value. His velocity has increased a bit, as maybe he’s finally feeling healthy. He’s thrown his slider over 40% of the time in each of his last two starts, leading to a SwStr above 12% each time. It could be interesting as he does come cheap, but it’s going to take a little bit more for us to trust him in Toronto facing the 2nd highest projected offense tonight (5.9 runs). LHBs have just a .313 wOBA and 26.2 Hard% against Cashner since last season, so while they still rate strongly, there could be some merit to fading them tonight at a high cost on either site with the exception being Jose Bautista (143 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $4.1K on DraftKings in the leadoff spot and Josh Donaldson (153 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is almost always a top overall bat. The strongest bat here might be Michael Saunders though (134 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP this season). LHBs have a .367 wOBA and 35.1 Hard% against Cashner since last season, mostly in a pitcher’s park. Justin Smoak (106 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may even have some value (and definitely lower ownership) down in the order for $2.8K on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak Nationals are merely an average offense versus RHP, 93 wRC+, .314 wOBA, .167 ISO
There really is not a lot to like on this slate as far as pitching options with upside, but Salazar is one of the few that stands out given his 27.4% K% and 11.1% SwStr%. The primary issue with Salazar has been his inability to limit walks (10.3 BB%) which then leads to higher pitch counts and hinders his ability to go deep into games limiting his strikeout upside. The Nationals have posted the sixth highest walk rate in the majors versus right-handed pitching (9.1%) so this matchup does have the potential to get away from Salazar if he is unable to maintain good control throughout. While it’s not a perfect matchup, Salazar remains as one of the pitchers with the highest upside on slate making him one of the top tournament plays on the board.
As reported by: FanGraphs Gonzalez has a top five K% tonight and Cleveland has just one batter with an ISO above .150 vs LHP
Gio Gonzalez has struggled with control issues, a 33.9 Hard%, and a career high 13.7 HR/FB. He’s facing the best home offense in baseball in Cleveland (124 wRC+), but there are also a couple of things in his favor too. His 23.1 K% this season is a top five mark tonight and the Tribe is much worse offense vs LHP (90 wRC+, 14.7 K-BB% and 8.3 HR/FB). In fact, Mike Napoli (122 wRC+, 211 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup with a wRC+ above 112 or ISO above .147 against LHP this year in a park that plays neutrally towards RH power. Gonzalez could have some value in a secondary spot on DraftKings where he costs just $6.5K.
Other tagged players: Mike Napoli Tyler Skaggs makes his first major league start in nearly two years in Kansas City
Tyler Skaggs hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in nearly two years (7/31/14) due to TJS. He’s a former high draft pick with some prospect buzz, who previously wasn’t able to do much in his short time in the majors (181 IP, 11.1 K-BB%, 4.72 ERA, 4.20 xFIP). He did strike out 45 of 124 batters at AAA this season though, so perhaps there’s something to see here. It’s a tough start against the Royals though. They strike out just 17.6% of the time vs LHP. It’s difficult to advocate attacking this pitcher because we don’t really know what he is now, but the Royals have a middling 4.41 run projection at home and some value might lie in their low price tags on both sites without a batter costing more than $3.6K. Kendrys Morales (139 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this season) might be the top bat with Cheslor Cuthbert, newly promoted to the #2 spot, has fared well against LHP as well (127 wRC+, .226 ISO this season) and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Cheslor Cuthbert, Kendrys Morales Red Sox have the highest implied run total on tonight's slate (6.6)
The Red Sox are the top offense on the board tonight and it’s not really close according to their run total in Vegas (6.6). DFS players love to target the Red Sox and they love to attack Mike Pelfrey. It’s a perfect storm of ownership that we may need to seriously consider fading in tournaments. For one, Pelfrey somehow manages to limit damage against him and rarely ever gets blown up, even if is advanced metrics show that he is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. He accomplishes this by inducing soft contact and getting ground balls, especially to right-handed batters (25.4% Hard%, 60.7% GB%). This is an interesting matchup for Pelfrey with the top of the Boston order, where Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, and Xander Bogaerts are all right-handed and make strong contact with slightly above average hard hit and ground ball rates. Hanley Ramirez can be put in the same category with the other righties as he has a 52.0% GB%. The area to attack Pelfrey is with left-handed batters, as he has a 46.4% GB% and a high 35.0% Hard% in comparison. David Ortiz (193 wRC+, .465 wOBA, .382 ISO vs RHP) is probably the top play tonight at any position and will carry the ownership we’d expect. Don’t be afraid to get creative with Red Sox stacks in tournaments by utilizing some of the lefties batting lower in the order like Jackie Bradley Jr., Travis Shaw, and Brock Holt. It will be tough to fully fade the Boston offense in cash games, but taking a stand in tournaments can make a ton of sense given the likelihood (albeit less-than-great) that Pelfrey keeps this lineup in check as he’s done throughout the season
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, Travis Shaw, Brock Holt, Mike Pelfrey