DFS Alerts
Kyle Hendricks hasn't allowed a run in July with estimators above four
Kyle Hendricks has a 21.5 K%, while dominating the point of contact with a 52.1 GB% and -1.6 Hard-Soft%. There’s not a lot of interest in mostly below average White Sox bats even at low prices against him, but he hasn’t allowed an ER in 19.2 July innings with a 4.41 SIERA/4.33 xFIP and perhaps the sites (especially DraftKings where he’s the highest priced pitcher – $10.9K) have become too aggressive with his price tag. While the estimators don’t take the quality of contact allowed into consideration, he still rarely goes more than six innings and has only completed the seventh twice this year. He’s a bit more reasonable for $9.2K on FanDuel, where the Win matters more with the Cubs being a current -150 favorite.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds
Francisco Liriano has a 3.56 ERA and 3.80 FIP at home with just four HRs this season
Francisco Liriano has actually been not terrible at home this season (3.56 ERA, 3.80 FIP) and did strike out 13 Brewers without a walk in his last outing. The Mariners are not the Brewers, but do lose a DH last night and many players might not realize that Pittsburgh is a tougher park on RH power than Seattle. Liriano has allowed just four HRs at home this season (just one to a LHB). Nelson Cruz (193 wRC+, .337 ISO vs LHP since 2015) can hit it out of any park and Franklin Gutierrez (151 wRC+, .266 ISO vs LHP since 2015) might still have some value for $3.3K on DraftKings out of the two hole, but Liriano might deserve more consideration that you might think because there are so pitchers with strikeout upside tonight. Additionally, no team is projected for less than 3.5 runs tonight with Seattle one of the few offenses closest to that number.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz Marcell Ozuna OUT of lineup in Miami against Eickhoff.
Jerad Eickhoff has an unexplainably strong home/road split in his young career, which doesn’t make a lot of sense considering he pitches in a difficult park, but his K-BB% drops six points with a hard contact rate that jumps to 35.9% on the road. Perhaps we’re still dealing with a short sample size that will regress as his career goes on, but he faces an offense with just a 9.8 HR/FB against RHP and 84 wRC+ at home. He gets a bit of a bump that might make him playable with Marcell Ozuna out of the lineup tonight. Though both Stanton (.223 ISO) and Yelich (.208 ISO) now have hit for some power this year vs RHP, they are the only two bats with an ISO above .102 both this year and since last season against RHP. Then again, despite striking out six of 25 Marlins without a walk in his last start, Eickhoff still allowed nine hits and five ERs with Stanton out of the lineup. Yelich does have a HR with an 103 mph aEV on five batted balls against Eickhoff.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich King Felix struck out just two of 32 White Sox in his return to the mound last week
Felix Hernandez struck out just two of 32 White Sox in his first start in nearly two months. His price is still a bit too high, especially on FanDuel ($9.9K) because although the contact has remained favorable (52.9 GB%, 25.7 Hard%), we don’t want to pay that much when we’re so much less dependent on strikeouts. That said, this is not a strong spot for Pittsburgh batters either with a projection of just under four runs in a park that kills RHP. This looks like a great matchup to fade tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Mets/Cardinals postponed Monday, will play doubleheader tomorrow
Tonight’s game in Citi Field has been postponed due to rain and will be made up tomorrow as part of a double-header, which will kick off at 4:10 ET.
As reported by: @Mets
Mets/Cardinals to start in a delay Monday
The tarp is still on the field in New York and there hasn’t been any movement to try to remove it at this point. It’s looking like rain should subside (or at least begin to slow down) around 9 PM ET, but you’re still taking a big risk by rostering anyone involved in this game.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo Kevin has updated the status of a few games taking place in the northeast
Follow the link below for an updated weather report for Monday. The risk has dropped some in New York, while the chances of late-game rain in Boston are rising.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Parker bats 3rd, Belt dropped too 6th against DeSclafani
Anthony DeSlafani gets a major park upgrade tonight, but costs over $9K on DraftKings against an offense with just a 7.8 K-BB%, while his 2.50 ERA is a run and a half below his estimators due to an 82.5 LOB%. He appears to be a bit over-priced in a spot that’s fine from a run prevention standpoint, but lacking in terms of potential strikeout upside. While Giants bats generally aren’t targets at home, we have to mention that Jarrett Parker has been smashing RHP (178 wRC+, .259 ISO since 2015) and costs just $2.8K or less on either site, batting 3rd tonight. LHBs have a .345 wOBA against DeSclafani since last season. Brandon Belt drops to 6th.
Other tagged players: Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Belt Proceed with caution if aiming to load up on Rockies bats
Yovani Gallardo and his low strikeout rate (14.8% K%) makes it extremely tempting to fire up Rockies stacks in tournaments, but his may be a matchup that becomes a full fade candidate as we begin putting together lineups tonight. Gallardo has limited right-handed batters to a 25.0% Hard% thus far, and while he struggles with strikeouts (16.7% K%), walks (15.1% BB%), and hard contact to left-handed hitters (33.7%), nearly 70% of his balls in play are being launched in the air by lefties, which means power lefties from the Rockies are the most viable options if attacking Gallardo. Camden Yards is very conducive for home runs from the left side of the plate, so Carlos Gonzalez (136 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .228 ISO vs RHP) and Charlie Blackmon (114 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .186 wOBA vs RHP) make for the best plays in this spot.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Yovani Gallardo
Jake Peavy has just allowed just three HRs at home facing an offense with a 22 K% vs RHP
Jake Peavy has diminished skills at this point. That much is obvious, but he’s been able to fake being a near league average pitcher in a great park with an 8.5 HR/FB this year, allowing just three at home. His 65.5 LOB% is nearly 10 points below his career average and the last two seasons. He’s also facing an offense with a 22% strikeout rate on the road and vs RHP, while the park should severely suppress their only real weapon, which is power in the top half of the lineup. Without nearly any low priced upside, Peavy is a reasonable option on two pitcher sites where otherwise paying up for pitching. This is a tough spot for Cincinnat bats who don’t appear to be priced down for a park where they are projected for less than four runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Rizzo is an elite play tonight, 173 wRC+, .431 wOBA, .317 ISO versus RHP
Miguel Gonzalez is basically just slightly below-average in almost every category against batters from both sides of the plate. His strikeouts are below-average (17.9% K%). His ground balls are a bit below-average (41.8% GB%). He allows hard contact at a rate a marginally above-average (31.0% Hard%). You get the point. Gonzalez is obviously out of consideration on this slate making a Cubs stack is an intriguing option with the ball park boost they receive heading from Wrigley to U.S. Cellular Field. Gonzalez can easily get knocked around with his marginal “stuff” when things don’t completely go his way. Other than Rizzo, the top options to consider for stacks and one-offs in the Cubs lineup are Dexter Fowler (145 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .213 ISO vs RHP), Kris Bryant (136 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .241 ISO vs RHP), Wilson Contreras (134 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .224 ISO vs RHP), and Ben Zobrist (123 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .178 ISO vs RHP)
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist, Miguel Gonzalez Multiple problem spots in Kevin's latest weather post
We have four total contests labeled with at least a yellow warning, with the game in New York the most likely of the bunch to be postponed. The northeast in general is giving us the majority of our trouble with games in Baltimore and Boston also iffy. Make sure to check out the full breakdown by following the link below.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Ian Kennedy has allowed a major league high 26 HRs this year, but has a 30.7 K% at home
Ian Kennedy has a 30.7 K% with a better 15.4 HR/FB at home, though he’s allowed a major league high 26 overall and four in his last start (at home) to Cleveland. Luckily, the Angels only have a couple of bats with power, but they also strike out a league low 15.7 K% vs RHP. He’s a marginal option for around $8K on either site, but not without risk even in the big park. Batters from either side have a hard hit rate above 35% against him since last season with LHBs a .349 wOBA 20 points higher. Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is obviously the top option tonight and one of the top overall bats, although with a high price tag. Calhoun (114 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Pujols (112 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are threats as well, at less than $4K on either site. Both have shown power vs RHP just in the average range this year though. Pujols does have three career HRs in just 12 PAs against Kennedy.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Ian Kennedy Daniel Mengden misses bats at an above average rate, but has a double digit walk rate with an ERA over five
Daniel Mengden has a slightly above average 21.8 K% and 10.1 SwStr%, but 5.52 ERA with a 4.6 SIERA and xFIP because he of an 11.4 BB%. He’s only allowed hard contact on 26% of batted balls with just one HR over his last five starts, but he could struggle in a highly positive run environment like Texas. LHBs have a .335 wOBA against him, while RHBs are just at .315. Rangers bats have under-performed against RHP, but Profar has hit them well this year (128 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP this season) and is one of the more affordable bats on either site out of the leadoff spot, while Nomar Mazara (117 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP) looks attractive out of the leadoff spot. Both are less than $3K on FanDuel for a lineup projected for five and a half runs. It’s more difficult to find value in other mostly below average bats against RHP though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Daniel Mengden Arrieta has only walked two of his last 55 batters faced (3.6% BB%)
Arrieta is coming off a start where he managed to strike out eight Mets while going seven innings and only allowing one earned run. Arrieta seems to have cured what ails him in his last couple starts and gets a juicy matchup against the lackluster White Sox offense tonight. Some cause for concern stems from Arrieta inducing a ground ball rate 40.0% or below in four of his last five starts (52.9% GB% on the year) with a hard hit rate 33.3% or higher in three straight. The good news is that the White Sox offense seems like an ideal spot for Arrieta to continue his progression back to his early season form. Arrieta may be tough to pay up for on DraftKings as he lacks the same upside as some of the other starting pitchers on the slate, but he makes for a great play on FanDuel where the win is more important with the Cubs offense taking on Miguel Gonzalez.
As reported by: FanGraphs