DFS Alerts
Chris Carter sits out as Braden Shipley makes his major league debut
Braden Shipley is a former 15th overall pick back in 2013, who has disappointed at the higher levels with just a 17.8 K% in 156 AA innings last year, followed by a 15.5 K% in 119 AAA innings this season. The Brewers have a league high 26.2 K% vs RHP, but the absence of Chris Carter probably drops that slightly tonight. He had about a 1.3 GB/FB in the minors this season, without much of a platoon split in his power numbers (four HRs to LHBs, three to RHBs), so while it’s not immediately obvious whether attacking with a weak lineup is a good idea or not, Ryan Braun (121 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains an option, while Kirk Nieuwenhuis (92 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP) may have a bit more value batting 5th for less than $4K on either site. He has a 313 wRC+ and 71.4 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Braden Shipley
Yanks with 4th lowest wOBA, 3rd lowest ISO against LHP, will be without ARod, McCann, Gardner
Dallas Keuchel’s slow start to the season has allowed us to roster him at a discount over his last few turns, and although he still doesn’t look like a Cy Young winner, things are headed in the right direction. The Yankees don’t strike out much against southpaws (17.1%), but that’s about the only thing they have going for them in this match-up. They own the 4th worst wOBA (.304) and 3rd worst ISO (.127) against LHP and have been one of the poorest offenses on the road this season. Keuchel is still very good at keeping the ball on the ground (56.8 GB%) and has pitched much better in his home park over the last two seasons. He’s allowed just a .293 wOBA to opposing hitters at home this year with a very respectable 4.6 Hd-Sft%.
Noah Syndergaard struck out eight with a 97.5 mph avg velocity coming out of the break
While the Cardinals are one of the better offenses vs RHP (114 wRC+, 15.2 HR/FB), Noah Syndergaard is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league (30.5 K%, 15.0 SwStr%) and should have quelled concerns about his arm when he came out of the break with a 97.5 mph average velocity, striking out seven Cubs at Wrigley. Still reasonably priced just over $10K on FD and just over $11K on DK for a pitcher with his upside, he’s not only potentially the top overall pitcher tonight, but probably one of the better values at his current cost as well in a great pitcher’s park, where he has a 26.9 K-BB% and 7.9 HR/FB since last season. With their upside existing mostly in potential SBs tonight, Cardinals bats are not on the radar. They have tonight’s lowest run projection by nearly half a run at right around three tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Smolinski gets the bump the two-spot, A's take on proverbial gas can, Martin Perez
Perez has this uncanny ability to outperform his peripherals which can occasionally make him frustrating to stack against. While Perez sometimes manages to limit the damage, he is still a bad pitcher. Perez may be losing some of his magician-like abilities, however, as he’s allowed at least five earned runs in each of his last three starts. Perez has posted a laughable strikeout rate to right-handed batters (9.5%) and while he has a 52.2% ground ball rate, it’s tough to be too concerned with the amount balls that will be put in play tonight as the Athletics only strikeout at 17.8% clip versus LHP. Further compounding his struggles, Perez surrenders a 34.0% Hard% to right-handed batters. Basically, any right-handed Athletics bat with the ability go deep is an option in this matchup, which means Jake Smolinski (195 wRC+, .454 wOBA, .330 ISO vs LHP since 2015), Danny Valencia (180 wRC+, .436 wOBA, .244 ISO vs LHP), and Khris Davis (.235 ISO vs LHP) are our primary targets. Even, Marcus Semien (152 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .344 ISO vs LHP) could be an interesting tournament play on DraftKings as he is overpriced for his eighth spot in the lineup and could go overlooked.
Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Marcus Semien, Martin Perez
Padres with the 2nd lowest wOBA, 2nd highest K% vs. RHP in 2016
While his swing-and-miss stuff hasn’t been there lately (7.4 SwStr% over the last month), Sanchez is still generating a ton of contact on the ground (57.1 GB%) and isn’t allowing much in the way of hard contact (6.2 Hd-Sft%). The Padres own the 2nd highest K% against RHP (24.6%) which should help make up for Sanchez’s dipping strikeout numbers, and the fact that the San Diego lineup leans heavily right-handed works very much in his favor. The recent emergence of Ryan Schimpf and the added DH in an AL park does give the Padres a chance to attack Sanchez’s biggest weakness (LH bats), but it’s not quite enough to scare us away in this spot (Alex Dickerson and Brett Wallace aren’t exactly world beaters). Sanchez is also a huge favorite (-270 as of this writing) which is especially valuable if you’re playing on a site like FanDuel.
Morales and Cuthbert are low cost bats who both have an ISO well above .200 vs LHP this season
Hector Santiago misses bats at a league average rate, but has a 10.1 BB% and 35.8 Hard%, while the Royals strikeout just 17.5% of the time vs LHP. RHBs have a .323 wOBA, but 35.9 Hard% against him since last season. There are a couple of strong value bats in this Kansas City lineup that might fly under the radar tonight. Kendrys Morales hits LHP extremely well (147 wRC+, .259 ISO this season) and has a 69.2 Hard% over the last week. He costs less than $3.5K on either site and is even OF eligible on DK. Cheslor Cuthbert (129 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP this season) has been on fire out of the two spot (231 wRC+, 47.4 Hard% over the last week) and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Cheslor Cuthbert, Hector Santiago Michael Pineda has a 27.5 K% and 14.0 SwStr%, but hard contact is up again over last month
Michael Pineda’s volatility is well known in the DFS world at this point. His strikeout rate is very high (27.5%, 14.0 SwStr%), but so is his blowup potential. While Houston is a power friendly park, getting out of Yankee Stadium, where he’s allowed 15 of his 18 HRs is always helpful and players are going to want to strongly consider his upside in tournaments for less than $9K as most of the pitchers with a comparable ceiling cost much more. The reason, of course, is because his ERA is two runs above his SIERA and xFIP and his hard contact rate has once again jumped up over the last month (37.5% or higher in four of last five starts) after a strong June (below 30% in three of first four starts). Pineda has little platoon split and most Houston bats towards the top of the order are expensive enough to avoid today on DraftKings with the exception of Preston Tucker (109 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP career) at $2.8K. He has a 312 wRC+ since returning to the majors. Altuve (143 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP this season) and Correa (158 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP this season) are more reasonable choices around the $3.5K mark on FanDuel. Correa has homered twice against Pineda in six PAs, putting the ball in play all six times with a 101 mph aEV.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Preston Tucker Pomeranz still costs $10K despite a rough Boston debut
This is a looking like a good fade spot. Drew Pomeranz struggled in his first start in Boston, allowing multiple HRs for only the second time this season and lasting just three innings. Expectations shouldn’t be the same in Boston as they were in San Diego, where he stranded more than 80% of his runners and kept his HR rate well below league average this year. His cost has not budged as he’s still a $10K pitcher on either site. Detroit has unexplainably struggled against LHP this year (92 wRC+) though, so we’re not going to want to attack a pitcher who should still be much better than he showed in his first Boston outing.
Verlander has a higher SwStr% (11.8%) than his MVP season in 2011
This is a tough matchup to get a read on as there is a viable case to be made for playing both sides. Verlander seems to have the slight edge as the Red Sox are rolling out five left-handed batters tonight. He has been much better against lefties this season, posting a 28.5% strikeout rate and a 22.9% hard contact rate. Verlander is no slouch versus right-handed batters either as he still strikes out RHB at an above-average rate (23.7%), and his hard contact numbers aren’t terrible (30.1% Hard%), but we typically target Verlander more against a lefty-heavy lineup. The full Red Sox stack does make some sense as a contrarian tournament play in this spot, simply because the Red Sox can expose any pitcher on any given night. The Red Sox bats are one of those “fade or stack” scenarios as it is really difficult to pick out individual batters. If Boston can knock around Verlander a bit, they may even be able to get four or five innings against the shaky Tigers bullpen.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jose Bautista returns to lead off in tonight's top projected lineup
RHBs have a .348 wOBA against Colin Rea since last season (LHBs .313) mostly pitching in Petco. Tonight, he travels to Toronto to face the top projected lineup on the slate at just over six runs. The return of Jose Bautista (143 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for just $4.4K on DraftKings into the leadoff spot no less, makes this lineup incredibly potent with several bats, including Donaldson (153 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Encarnacion (147 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Saunders 118 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) joining Joey Bats as top overall bats tonight, while Troy Tulowitzki (95 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 50% hard hit rate over the last week and is a great value at SS for just $2.8K on FanDuel. Only Martin and Pillar have a wRC+ below 105 against RHP this season. There is neither a poorly projected bat or value to be found in this lineup. Daily fantasy lineups should have heavy exposure to this lineup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Colin Rea, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar Jeremy Hellickson struck out eight of 28 Marlins (eight innings) in his last start
Jeremy Hellickson struck out eight of 28 Marlins in eight innings with one run (solo HR) in his last start and upgrades in park for the rematch tonight. Despite the 16.2 HR/FB, he has an exceptional 22.4 Soft% that’s eighth best in the majors. The Marlins have are an average offense with surprisingly little power vs RHP (10.0 HR/FB). That power mostly starts and ends with Giancarlo Stanton (122 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has a 47.4 Hard% over the last week. Christian Yelich (157 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP this season) is the best overall hitter vs RHP and has been on fire over the last week (206 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%), but costs at least $4K on either site. No other bats project very strongly here and, in fact, Jeremy Hellickson is a reasonable choice with a moderate price tag. He has a strong SwStr rate above 11% both on the season and over the last month.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich Orioles implied run total has increased to 5.7 runs, making them the second-highest projection on the slate
While de la Rosa (4.71 SIERA) has done a respectable job keeping the ball on the ground this season (48.3% GB%) and only allowed hard contact at a slightly above average rate overall (29.9%), he has not managed to have that same success against right-handed batters. Against righties, de la Rosa is only striking out 18.3% of batters, while surrendering 1.58 HR/9 and a 18.0% HR/FB rate. To make matters worse for de la Rosa, he has the envious task of facing the powerful Orioles lineup and the likes of: Manny Machado (141 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .222 ISO vs LHP), Jonathan Schoop (.193 ISO vs LHP), and Mark Trumbo (.305 ISO vs LHP). There is obviously a ton of variance in baseball from day-to-day, but this matchup does not set up well for de la Rosa. This is an elite spot for the Orioles righties making them strong plays in cash games and tournaments. Feel free to load up on a full stack that includes Chris Davis as he surrisingly hits LHP well (116 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .214 ISO since 2015) and may even get to face a righty or two later in the game when the Rockies are forced to call upon their horrendous bullpen.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Jorge De La Rosa RHBs have a .365 wOBA and 35.1 Hard% vs Chase Anderson since last season
While the Diamondbacks aren’t a very potent offense vs RHP (89 wRC+, 23.4 K%), they face a poor pitcher with an ERA and estimators above seven over the last month, who additionally favors them with an extreme reverse split in a positive offensive environment. RHBs have a .365 wOBA and 35.1 Hard% against him since last season immediately making Paul Goldschmidt (145 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP since 2015) a top bat at 1B and overall tonight. He projects to be a good value around the $4.5K mark on either site with a top BAT projection tonight. Phil Gosselin (110 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a great min-priced 2B option on FanDuel as Arizona recognizes the reverse platoon nature of Anderson in organizing their lineup tonight. Yasmany Tomas (76 wRC+, .126 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $3.1K or less on either site with a 229 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Jake Lamb (165 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP this season) takes a bit of a hit with a $5.5K price tag on DraftKings. LHBs have just a .309 wOBA, 25.9 Hard% vs Anderson since last season and he has a -94 wRC+ over the last week.
As reported by: The BAT Projections Other tagged players: Phil Gosselin, Chase Anderson, Jake Lamb, Yasmany Tomas Carlos Martinez has the 2nd best GB rate (58.2%), but his change-up is generating fewer whiffs than last season
Carlos Martinez isn’t missing as many bats with his change-up this season, but is getting an enormous ground ball rate 78% of the time its put in play, pushing him to the second highest ground ball rate in the league at 58.2%. We should see plenty of them tonight a mostly LH Mets lineup. The Mets have some power, but just a 94 wRC+ and 22.6 K% against RHP in a negative run environment at home tonight, giving Martinez some upside with just a league average strikeout rate this year. He carries a high price tag though at $11.4K on DraftKings, where there might be options with more upside in his price range, including his opponent. We certainly aren’t looking to attack him with this lineup, though Michael Conforto (137 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP career) has a 208 wRC+ and 37.5 Hard% since returning over the last week. He costs less than $3K on either site and LHBs have a .327 wOBA against Martinez since last season. He could work as a salary saving OFer on a board dominated by high cost pitchers tonight. Neil Walker and Travis D’Arnaud get nights off.
As reported by: Brooks Baseball Other tagged players: Michael Conforto Coco Crisp scratched with neck soreness
The Athletics will be loading up right-handed bats against Blake Snell today, with 7 of the 9 batters batting from the right side of the plate, and only Yonder Alonso and Bruce Maxwell batting as lefties. Jake Smolinski and Danny Valencia stand out as the notable lefty-crushers, possessing wRC+ totals of 218 and 184, respectively, versus LHP.
As reported by: CSN Authentic Other tagged players: Jake Smolinski, Danny Valencia