DFS Alerts
Orioles tied for major league best 126 wRC+ vs RHP
Jose Berrios will likely claim the top spot in the Minnesota very soon, but it may not be tonight. He’s walked seven of the first 43 batters he’s faced with a .443 wOBA allowed to LHBs in a super small sample size, but he faces perhaps the top offense vs RHP this year (126 wRC+). The Orioles have a 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP and retain a 15.5 HR/FB on the road. This is likely a bit tougher park for LH power than they usually see in the AL East, but no park can hold Chris Davis (159 wRC+, .344 ISO, 44.8 Hard% vs RHP since 2015). He has been struggling (12 wRC+, 18.0 Hard% last seven days), but retains a 255 ft avg distance on the season. Manny Machado (154 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP) might have better luck from the other side (235 wRC+ last seven days). One interesting and very affordable place to look for potential power is Pedro Alvarez (117 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP), who has become a forgotten man batting 7th for $3.1K or less. He has a 40.0 Hard% over the last week that matches Berrios’s 38.5 Hard% allowed to LHBs. Be sure to keep an eye on Kevin Roth’s weather reports as this is a game that carried some risk this morning.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Jose Berrios, Manny Machado, Pedro Alvarez
Kluber faces strikeout prone Astros lineup tonight
While Kluber’s 25.3K% is down from the past two years, we should expect that number to rise in the near future. Tonight’s matchup against Houston serves as a great opportunity for Kluber to strike some guys out and raise his season K%. The Astros are second in the league with a K% of 26.7% and own a Vegas projected run total of just 3.6 this evening. While there is some serious power packed within the HOU lineup, they are avoidable tonight given their matchup against Kluber. Consider Kluber one of top pitching options on the board this evening.
As reported by: Fangraphs
Texas has top run projection outside of Coors tonight (4.9 runs)
Miguel Gonzalez brings a 0.95 GB/FB and 12.1 HR/FB career to face a Texas lineup with the highest run projection (4.9) outside of Coors tonight. It starts right at the top with Rouged Odor (110 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has excelled in the leadoff spot (176 wRC+ last seven days) and continues with the under-priced (< $4K) Nomar Mazara (166 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP) next. While Prince Fielder continues to struggle (-26 wRC+ last week), Mitch Moreland (129 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since last season) may be an under-owned first baseman for $4K or less.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Mitch Moreland, Miguel Gonzalez Sonny Gray’s salary down to $6,800 on DraftKings, faces Red Sox team who own a league high 126 wRC+ against RHP
Gray’s salary has decreased from $9300 from his last start down to just $6,800 on DraftKings tonight. Even so, he doesn’t make for a very appealing option against the Red Sox this evening. The Red Sox are very good against RHP, owning a league high 126 wRC+ and a .354 wOBA. The Sox also hit very well at home (113 wRC+ – .344 wOBA) and are projected by Vegas to score 4.47 runs. Gray owns a league average 20.9% and is walking 10.5% of batters this year. Mookie Betts (.344 wOBA vs RHP), Dustin Pedroia (.356 wOBA vs RHP), and Xander Boegarts (.324 wOBA vs RHP) make for serviceable plays this evening, as does the hot hitting David Ortiz (.423 wOBA – .336 ISO vs RHP) who hit two HR’s yesterday.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia Colby Lewis has allowed 8 HRs, but stranded 93.1% of his runners
While Colby Lewis has always been a HR prone pitcher, a 93.1 LOB% is something new and something that can’t be sustained, likely to wreak havoc on an ERA well more than a run below his estimators. His eight HRs allowed in six starts is tied for 2nd most in the majors. Lots of hard contact in the air with a below average strikeout rate in a run friendly environment is a bad thing against any offense. The White Sox have been just average, but have two strong bats against RHP players might want some exposure to in this situation. Adam Eaton (128 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) leads off with a 161 wRC+, 42.9 Hard% over the last week. Jose Abreu (141 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP) is stronger against same handed pitching and has a 211 wRC+ over the last week. Both are at least $3.5K on each site. A cheaper bat to consider for cost cutting purposes, just due to circumstances, might be Melky Cabrera (107 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) for under $3.5K, who may bat with RBI opportunities tonight in the middle of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Colby Lewis, Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera Werth out, Taylor dropped from leadoff spot for Nats against Anibal Sanchez
It’s baby steps for Dusty Baker, but at least Ben Revere (102 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) replaces Michael Taylor atop the lineup, even if Daniel Murphy (133 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since last season) is still hitting 5th with his 250 wRC+, 51.9 Hard% over the last week, allowing opposing teams to just walk Bryce Harper (200 wRC+, .354 ISO vs RHP) every time up. Both LH power bats are great options against a pitcher allowing a .369 wOBA to RHBs since last season. Harper may not be getting much of a chance recently, but is below $5K now and will be worth the cost even if he continues to just walk every time up. Sanchez now adds a 13.6 BB% that still sits below his HR/FB over the last two seasons. However, none of the RH bats for Washington have even been average against RHP over the last season plus.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Ben Revere, Anibal Sanchez Moustakas out again, Hosmer a top First Base bat at Yankee Stadium
According to Kevin’s early report, the wind is blowing out to RF at 10-20 mph. It’s unfortunate that Moustakas is missing such a great spot against a bullpen arm, Ivan Nova, filling in for the injured Sabathia. We don’t expect him to get more than 80 pitches or five innings tonight, but the Kansas City offense has under-achieved this season (85 wRC+ on the road, 92 wRC+ vs RHP, 68 wRC+ last seven days). One bat that hasn’t fallen asleep is Eric Hosmer (148 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), who has a 93.7 mph aEV this season and a 183 wRC+ with a 40.0 Hard% over the last week, facing a pitcher with a .387 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season. One thing to consider and another reason to consider not going to heavily on Royals tonight, is that after he gets maybe two chances against Nova, the Yankees can trot out three top closer quality arms (including Chapman now) if the game is close.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Ivan Nova Ellsbury, ARod OUT, McCann bats 3rd vs HR prone Young (8 HRs allowed in 6 starts)
Chris Young has thrown his slider over 50% of the time this season and it’s led to more strikeouts, but also more HRs. He’s already allowed eight through six starts after allowing just 16 last year. The Yankees are a mess, but still have a league average HR rate at home and vs RHP. Kevin mentioned in his early forecast a 10-20 mph wind blowing out to RF, which makes Brian McCann, now batting 3rd, the most interesting catcher on the slate tonight. He has just a 108 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, but a .202 ISO and also a 42.9 Hard% overall this last week. There’s some good value there for under $4K. The best hitter in the lineup vs RHP over the last year has been Mark Teixeira (141 wRC+, .301 ISO), who is still a great value on FanDuel ($2.8K) though a bit more expensive ($4K) on DraftKings. Interestingly, no other batter in the lineup has a wRC+ above 120 or ISO above .200 vs RHP since last season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Chris Young, Mark Teixeira Strasburg faces struggling Detroit lineup in NL park (Castellanos cleanup)
Detroit has a reputation for being a difficult offense to navigate and that’s true this year with a 110 wRC+ vs RHP, but they have just a 62 wRC+ over the last week and lose Victor Martinez in an NL park. A lineup with Nick Castellanos (97 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) batting cleanup should not intimidate anyone. Stephen Strasburg has struck out at least seven in each of his last five starts and has improved his contact profile with a higher ground ball rate (49.5%) and weaker contact (24.8 Hard%) on his way to finally becoming a more consistently elite pitcher just in time to become a free agent. He’s added a slider 14.7% of the time, which may be making a difference. The Tigers strike out 23.9% of the time with V.Mart in the lineup, leaving Strasburg with top overall pitcher upside tonight along with a solid floor as just the 3rd highest cost on DraftKings. With a couple of top pitchers on the board tonight against offenses with lower projected run lines, he may even go under-owned, but this is a pitcher players should have generous exposure towards tonight. Miguel Cabrera (159 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, 171 wRC+ last seven days) may be interesting for under $4K here, but that’s about it.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera Dietrich (141 wRC+ vs RHP) finally in leadoff spot against Peralta (.386 wOBA vs RHB)
Derek Dietrich (141 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has finally taken his rightful spot atop the lineup against RHP. He has a 180 wRC+ over the last week, excelling in Dee Gordon’s absence and is a top 2B value for under $3.5K on both sites even with a Coors game on the slate. This is a great place to save for some pitching and the Marlins might be a great alternative stack with Wily Peralta allowing a .386 wOBA to LHBs since last season. Christian Yelich (133 wRC+ vs RHP) and Justin Bour (126 wRC+, .245 ISO) would be other mandatory parts of a Miami stack, along with Giancarlo Stanton (140 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP since 2015) as Peralta has been torched (.370 wOBA) by RHBs too since last season. Yelich (180 wRC+) and Stanton (198 wRC+) have been two of the hotter bats in the league over the last week and both have an aEV in excess of 94 mph on batted balls this season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, Giancarlo Stanton, Wily Peralta Jaso (130 wRC+ vs RHP) under $4K against Straily's 11.3 BB%.
This might be the type of bargain you have to hunt for to afford some of tonight’s top pitching. Dan Straily is missing bats, but also the plate quite often. His 11.3 BB% meshes well with Jaso’s 12.4 career BB% and he has a 130 wRC+ vs RHP since last season atop a lineup expected to score 4.62 runs tonight for under $4K on both both sites ($3K on FanDuel), offering likely the best value in tonight’s Pittsburgh lineup. While Polanco (114 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is more interesting in his new 3 slot for $3.2 K on FD, he’s way more expensive as are McCutchen and Marte on DraftKings (all three are $5K or greater). Straily does have a career 11.3 HR/FB and has already allowed five in 30 innings this season with a 32.1 Hard%, so McCutchen’s average distance of 261 feet this year is something to look at and may go unnoticed with several high priced outfielders in great matchups.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Dan Straily Lucroy joins Santana on bench against Fernandez
Jose Fernandez was already one of the top pitchers on tonight’s slate, but the absence of some of the RH power for Milwaukee gives him even further upside, although Alex Presley has filled in well (121 wRC+ over the last week) during Santana’s absence. Fernandez has been inconsistent this season and has not gone past six innings in a start, but has at least seven strikeouts in four of six starts with at least a 14 SwStr% in his last two (and four times overall). While not exactly the lock for dominance he’s been the past, the upside is still tremendous against an offense with a 25.0 K% against RHP and the lowest projected run total on the board (2.82). It’s going to be difficult to pair an $11K pitcher with Coors bats, but players might want some exposure to one of the top potential arms of the night.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Alex Presley Bruce sits against lefty Niese in Pittsburgh, but Reds have some surprisingly potent bats vs LHP
Jon Niese has a career high 9.1 BB% while his K% continues to be well below average. He’s allowed six of his seven HRs in three road starts. Cincinnati doesn’t have the most potent offense in the league, but lean strongly right handed and feature three strong hitters vs LHP since last season along with two additional hot bats. Zack Cozart (134 wRC+, .211 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has made himself a strong SS DFS candidate out of the leadoff spot at home. Billy Hamilton (79 wRC+ vs LHP, 24 wRC+ last seven days) has to figure out getting on base, but the Niese/Cervelli combo should be easy enough to run on. Joe Votto (154 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) is strong against LHP and his bat has been heating up (157 wRC+, 46.2 Hard% last seven). Brandon Phillips is just average against LHP (108 wRC+), but has a 204 wRC+, 56.5 Hard% over the last week. Eugenio Suarez (139 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP) bumps up to 5th in the lineup, while Adam Duvall has struggled against LHP (49 wRC+), but has a 248 wRC+ over the last week. Despite weak overall numbers vs LHP this season, a Cincinnat stack is something to think about
Other tagged players: Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Brandon Phillips, Adam Duvall, Jon Niese Luis Severino's xFIP tells a different story than his wOBA. Ortiz may be a more viable play than he appears tonight
Luis Severino’s career wOBA versus left-handed batters is 0.298, while his career xFIP 2.94. David Ortiz could be a better play than he appears tonight at a lefty-friendly Yankees Stadium.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Luis Severino
No David Wright for the Mets
David Wright will enjoy a rest day on Sunday and Eric Campbell will start at 3B for the Mets. Campbell can be safely categorized as a “Sunday” player at this point, finishing 2015 with an wRC+ of 78 against RHP. Make sure David Wright and Eric Campbell are not in your lineups.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Eric Campbell