DFS Alerts

Nicasio .392 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015 is a problem, as may be weather in Cincinnati

Juan Nicasio has allowed a .392 wOBA to LHBs since last season (.367 this year) and failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in half his starts. The fact that there are only two decent LH bats in the lineup might bode a bit better for him, but this is still not a spot where you’d want to test a pitcher with bad control at a high cost (FanDuel), though he seems like he could be more of a break even proposition for $6.3K on DraftKings. If this game gets played, and you’ll want to follow Kevin’s updates here and on Twitter because it appears to at risk, Joey Votto (158 wRC+, .224 ISO, 43.0 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) might be the top bat outside of Coors tonight (185 wRC+, 58.3 Hard% last seven days). Billy Hamilton is an awful hitter (45 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, 40 wRC+ last week), but he does bat left-handed against righties and this might be a spot where he can do some damage if he can reach base at least once and may get five opportunities batting second tonight.

Analysis coming soon.

Analysis coming soon.

The start of tonight’s MIN/BAL game will be delayed due to rain. Orioles beat writer Eduardo Encina recently tweeted that the game may not get started until 9:20 ET, so stay tuned.

Mets have 23.7 K%, Kazmir has struck out 15 of last 55

Michael Conforto takes a seat against the lefty tonight. Scott Kazmir is showing signs of recovery from a thumb injury that may have plagued him to start the season. He’s struck out 15 of his last 55 and faces an offense with a 23.7 K% vs LHP. If you’re loading up on Coors bats and need to go a bit cheaper on the mound, this is a good place to look for potential punchouts for $8.2K on either site. The top Met bats are the most expensive one. David Wright (183 wRC+, .236 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has been pounding the baseball (245 wRC+, 70.0 Hard% last seven days) and Yoenis Cespedes (118 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP) has been better vs same handed pitching, but retains his power vs lefties. He has a 214 wRC+ over the last week. Flores and Lagares are both above average hitters vs LHP, but aren’t enough of a discount further down in the order to really be of value in a pitcher’s park here against a pitcher who has looked better in his last two outings.

Kevin Pillar batting leadoff against RHP Peavy

Jake Peavy has allowed a 36.2 Hard Hit , 4.28 SIERA and 4.74 xFIP so far this season. Tonight he will face the potent Blue Jays offense in pitcher friendly AT&T Park. The Blue Jays haven’t hit well on the road this year, posting a team .293 wOBA, 90 wRC+ and 25.7K while playing in outside of Toronto. They haven’t fared much better against RHP either, as they own a team .308 wOBA, 96 wRC+ and 24.7K% while facing righties this season. Jake Peavy isn’t the pitcher that he once was, but could be in for a decent outing. Consider him a deep GPP at best. If you’re looking to exploit Peavy, consider both Kevin Pillar (.339 wOBA vs RHP this year) who is hitting leadoff and Jose Bautista (.360 wOBA vs RHP this year) who will be in the 3 spot tonight.

Ground baller Sanchez (61.5%) gets a bump with Posey OUT

Buster Posey will not play tonight, giving Aaron Sanchez a bump as a reasonable secondary pitcher to pair with a stud on two pitcher sites. His SwStr% sits a bit below league average and that might bring his K% down, but his control is improved (7.6 BB%) and he’s generating tons of weak contact (1.5 career Hard-Soft%) on ground balls (61.5% career). That’s a strong profile in any park, but he’s in one of the top pitcher’s parks tonight against a generally strong offense without their top hitter as Buster Posey gets a night off. Sanchez has held RHBs to a .207 wOBA since last season, taking them out of play without the ability to elevate at a high cost. Brandon Belt (141 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, 261 wRC+ last seven days) is the one San Francisco bat that remains a strong consideration here for just over $4K. Sanchez is worth a look at a very affordable price in an upgraded spot without Posey.

Felix Hernandez’s FB velocity is down 2.4 mph this year, faces TB team who owns the highest K% against RHP tonight

Hernandez has not pitched up to standards this year, as he sports 4.56 SIERA, 11.5 BB%, and K% of just 18.5% (way down from his career average of 23.1%). Tonight he will get a chance to turn around his season against the Rays. As a team, Tampa leads the league in K% against RHP (27.2%) and they own a wRC+ of just 90 against them. There aren’t any TB hitters that stand out as must plays tonight, making them avoidable altogether. Felix is far from a safe cash game play given his woes this season, but makes for an interesting GPP play this evening.

Gonzalez only LH Dodger facing Matz

Steven Matz has rebounded strongly since his disastrous first start, allowing only two runs since, going at least seven innings in all four starts. There may be some smoke and mirrors in his 25.4 K% with just a 7.5 SwStr%, but a sinker thrown around 60% of the time at around 94 mph has led to a strong 55.4 GB%. There are very few pitchers who can generate that rate of ground balls with anything near a league average strikeout rate. Think Jaime Garcia with a few extra tics on his fastball. There’s still some value in that against an under-performing offense in a negative run environment for under $10K. Matz has held RHBs to a .258 wOBA, 20.6 K-BB% since debuting, but that sample is not enough to keep the Dodgers from running out their RH heavy lineup. It probably leaves us off most of them. Kike Hernandez still has a 220 wRC+ vs LHP with a sub-$3K price out of the leadoff spot, but hasn’t really performed up to last year’s standards in 2016.

Tonight is shaping up to be a wet one, as there are quite a few games that will be dealing with rain. SDP/CHC and MIN/BAL are the two games featuring an ORANGE tag tonight, so proceed with caution. Make sure to visit the link provided below to read the full report.

Peralta is OUT vs RHP at Coors

David Peralta misses a rare game against a RHP in the best of parks tonight, which may take a key player out of your lineup, but opens up unexpected opportunities for a few others, namely Brandon Drury (117 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP since 2015) who moves up to the two spot for under $4K. Also, Chris Herrmann (79 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP) has hit a few HRs recently and is just above $3K. The obvious and expensive bat tonight would be Paul Goldschmidt (150 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Chatwood actually has a higher wOBA allowed to RHB (.341) so far in 83 PAs this season. Jake Lamb (104 wRC+ vs RHP) is more of an average bat at an average cost, which deserves some exposure at Coors.

Joe Mauer batting leadoff, Dozier back in the lineup tonight against RHP Tyler Wilson

Tyler Wilson serves as a pretty good pitcher to pick on tonight. He owns a career 10.5K% and isn’t going to strike many batters out. That bodes well for the Twins who have had major K issues this year. The Twins are projected by Vegas to score 4.43 runs and should be able to get to Wilson early in this one. Joe Mauer (.384 wOBA – 152 wRC+ vs RHP this year) is batting leadoff tonight while Miguel Sano is pushed down to the 5 spot. Byung-ho Park is also an excellent GPP option tonight, given his success against RHP this year (.389 wOBA – .329 ISO – 155 wRC+ vs RHP). Trevor Plouffe is another player to consider, as he owns a .333 ISO and .530 wOBA vs RHP at home this season through a small sample size of 19 AB’s.

Opportunity on both sides of a Fiers vs Cleveland matchup

Mike Fiers has allowed of hard contact, much of it in the air, leading to eight HRs and a 34.2 LD%. His current BABIP is .330, but he’s been below .285 each of the previous three seasons, so while HRs may be a part of his game, his history and estimators suggest significant improvement. Against a Cleveland team striking out 23.9% of the time vs RHP, there’s some opportunity as one of the few guys who could generate an above average strikeout rate for below $8K tonight. There’s opportunity on both sides tonight as Cleveland can do some damage to a fly ball pitcher in a power friendly park. Brantley and Kipnis each have a 140+ wRC+ vs RHP since last season, while Francisco Lindor has just a 118 wRC+ vs RHP, but 218 wRC+ over the last week. Carlos Santana also has a 118 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, but a .218 ISO. If you’re stacking bats in Colorado, you’re going to need affordable pitching with upside. If your pitching needs are taken care of the top half of the Cleveland lineup should be looked at as well.

As expected, Rockies (5.9) have highest run projection tonight

It should be business as usual in Coors tonight as the Rockies project for the highest run total (5.9 runs). Archie Bradley has pitched well since his demotion (19 IP – 4 ER – 9 BB – 25 K), but still retains his control issues that could be a disaster in this park. He walked four of 23 batters in his only major league start this year. The top four will be very popular in stacks tonight and for good reason, as they project to be some of the top bats available tonight at some very expensive prices. Nolan Arenado has a 133 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP since last season (two HRs in 6 PAs vs Bradley) with Trevor Story matching the power (.313 ISO vs RHP also). Carlos Gonzalez has struggled (25 wRC+, 22.7 Hard% last seven days), but retains a 145 wRC+, .305 ISO vs RHP since 2015. Charlie Blackmon has been just average (106 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), but anyone who gets the leadoff spot in Colorado merits strong considerations. If you’re looking for the cheap power bat, that’s Mark Reynolds (101 wRC+ vs RHP and over the last seven days) for $3.8K on both major sites.

Lester a top pitching option tonight, but weather is a cause for concern in Chicago

Jon Lester will (hopefully) square off tonight against the Padres at home in Wrigley Field. He owns a 24.7K% and a 2.97 xFIP so far through the 2016 season. The Padres own a league high 26.6K% and are only projected to score 2.89 runs this evening. If this game plays, consider Lester a top option tonight. Make sure to check Kevin Roth’s weather report linked below before lineup lock, as the rain is definitely cause for concern in Chicago.