DFS Alerts

Kevin has posted his last update and NYY@BAL still seems to be the game with most concerns, but it shouldn’t be too difficult to avoid pitchers from that game as it looks to be an offensive affair anyway. Kevin believes it more likely plays than not right now, but read his full update on our Weather Page, linked below.

Steven Wright's cost has risen considerably

Steven Wright looked great against the Braves and has been missing an above average rate of bats with his knuckleball (11.8 SwStr%/22.5 K%), but he’s also walking 9.9% of his batters and has an 82.3 LOB% that’s ripe for regression. His price has risen considerably and he’s faced with a more neutral matchup against an offense with a 135 wRC+ over the last week as some of their bigger bats start to come to life. Jose Abreu hits RHP better than lefties (136 wRC+, .222 ISO since 2015), though splits matter less with knucklers. He has a 171 wRC+ over the last week and along with Todd Frazier (.218 ISO) might be worth a look against a pitcher who may now be over-priced.

Harper destroys righties (.407 wOBA – 160 wRC+), but the Nationals own a 74 wRC+ and .291 wOBA against them this season

While Chris Young owns a 23.2K% this season, without his 10K outing against Baltimore a few starts back, his K% would be much, much lower. He’s a pitcher that we would normally like to exploit given his 40.8Hard% and 5.31 FIP so far throughout the season, but unfortunately there isn’t a whole lot to like with the Nationals lineup. Bryce Harper is an obvious play (.407 wOBA – 160 wRC+ career vs RHP) and should be considered in all formats tonight. Daniel Murphy (.422 wOBA – 160 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016) is an interesting play on night where he will almost certainly be overlooked. But besides the consideration of Harper and Murphy, it may be wise to look elsewhere for your hitters this evening.

Red Sox have a 158 wRC+ last seven days, but 64 wRC+, 25.4 K% vs LHP.

Jose Quintana is coming off six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts in Toronto and is currently off to the best start of his major league career with a 26.5 K% and 3.26 SIERA/3.21 xFIP that do run quite a bit higher than his 1.47 ERA, but are still All Star level numbers. The Red Sox provide an interesting matchup in that they are the hottest offense in baseball over the last week (158 wRC+), but have just a 64 wRC+ with a 25.4 K% vs LHP. They’re likely going to be better than that against lefties with several quality RH bats atop the order, but with pitching at a premium tonight, this is a spot we might want to look at Quintana for under $9K on either site. Of the top three, Xander Bogaerts (141 wRC+) has been the top overall bat vs LHP, but with little power (.104 ISO). Chris Young (163 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP since 2015) might be the value play for under $3K, but bats down in the order. The Red Sox have had success offensively over the last week, but this is probably not the pitcher to attack tonight as they have the 4th lowest projected run total (3.4) per our Vegas Odds page.

Astros own league high 27.1K% against RHP this season

Alex Meyer will be making his first start of the season tonight against the Houston Astros. Meyer has pitched well in the minors this season, boasting a 29.7K% while only walking 6.3% of batters faced. His strikeouts and have been up, while his walks have been down from their respective career averages this year (16.7K% – 16.7BB%). As a pitcher who has notoriously struggled with his command, he will need to limit the walks if he is going to escape Minute Maid unscathed. As a team, the Astros own a league high 27.1K% but also walk 10% of the time against RHP. At only $4.6 on DraftKings, Meyer makes for a cheap, high risk play for GPP’s tonight. With a Vegas projected run total of 4.61, Houston is expected to score some runs this evening. Colby Rasmus owns a .319 ISO and a .398 wOBA agasinst RHP and is a great GPP play. Jose Altuve (8 SB against RHP in 2016) and Carlos Correa (.203 ISO – 129 wRC+ career vs RHP) are also solid plays and should be contributing factors to any of the runs scored by HOU tonight.

Gosselin bats leadoff, Weeks cleanup as Arizona goes fully RH vs Nicolino

Justin Nicolino shut down the Dodgers for seven innings, getting just two strike outs on four swinging strikes in his only major league start this year. He now had a 0.9 K-BB% in just over 80 ML innings. The Diamondbacks go entirely right-handed tonight, providing some salary relief at a middle infield position with Phil Gosselin, who has a 147 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. He quickly becomes one of the top value plays of the night. Brandon Drury (119 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since last season) has a 232 wRC+ out of the two spot over the last week and continues to be a value play eligible at the same positions. Tomas and Castillo both hit LHP in the 130 wRC+ range over the last year plus and offer decent value in the mid-price range, though Castillo may provide more positional value. Paul Goldschmidt continues to pound LHP (184 wRC+, .255 ISO), but is one of the more expensive players on the board. An Arizona stack is more cost viable no with the lower cost up top. They are projected to score 4.5 runs tonight.

Braun sits against Angels and Tropeano

Nick Tropeano has an impressive 13.0 SwStr% that suggests even more than his current 21.3 K%, but his 2.11 ERA is hiding behind an 88.6 LOB% and 3.6 HR/FB despite a 21.8 Hard-Soft% allowed and 53.2% of his batted balls in the air, the 2nd highest fly ball rate in the league. That probably plays better in LA than it will in Milwaukee. The Brewers strike out a lot (25.4% vs RHP), but have been about average offensively with quite a bit of power (17.4 HR/FB at home, 13.8 HR/FB vs RHP). That makes this a dangerous spot for Tropeano, though with Ryan Braun out it might make him playable for under $6K on DraftKings with a high strikeout expectation. Just beware of the possibility of all those hard fly balls causing more damage here than they do at home. Chris Carter is now the Milwaukee bat to target with a .268 ISO vs RHP since last season and a 94.5 average exit velocity this year. Domingo Santana has been below average against RHP (85 wRC+), but has a 96.2 mph exit velocity this season. Jonathan Lucroy’s power is down (.136 ISO vs RHP since last season), but he still has a 107 wRC+ vs RHP and 158 wRC+ over the last week. Both players may provide better value on FanDuel though where they’re both nearly $1K less in cost.

Josh Donaldson crushes LHP (.420 wOBA – 174 wRC+ - .312 ISO), Blue Jays own highest Vegas projected run total tonight (5.14)

Martin Perez has not pitched well against RHP this season, owning a 5.14 xFIP and dismal 9.6K% against them. The Blue Jays own tonight’s highest Vegas projected run total and should have no problem putting some runs on the board tonight. Josh Donaldson (.420 wOBA – 174 wRC+ – .312 ISO career vs LHP) should be considered the top 3B option on the slate, just as Edwin Encarnacion (.376 wOBA – .232 ISO – 132 wRC+ career against LHP) should be considered as the top 1B play of the evening. Jose Bautista (.246 ISO vs LHP) and Troy Tulowitzki (.233 ISO vs LHP) are high upside plays, and can be easily stacked with Donaldson and Encarnacion in GPP’s. Consider the Blue Jay hitters 1-6 to be the top GPP stack of the evening.

Giants are now facing LH Lamb, still 2nd highest projected run line

John Lamb had a 26.4 K% in just under 50 major league innings last year, but was also a fly ball pitcher with a 14.3 HR/FB. He’s a late replacement for the RH Moscot and could even be considered an upgrade, though the Giants are still projected to score 5.02 runs per our Vegas Odds page, the 2nd highest total on the board. This is a good offense vs pitchers from either side of the plate, led by Brandon Belts 140 wRC+, .216 ISO, 38.1 Hard% vs LHP since last season. He’s also the hottest hitter on the team with a 245 wRC+ over the last week. Hunter Pence (87 wRC+ vs LHP, 226 wRC+ last seven) and Buster Posey (135 wRC+ vs LHP, 162 wRC+ last seven) aren’t far behind and make for a potent middle of the order tonight.

Braves own a 62 wRC+ and .067 ISO against RHP this year

Matt Harvey couldn’t ask for a better position to be in tonight, as he will get to face the Braves and their powerless lineup at home in Citi Field. Harvey had struggled early on in the season, but has since had a few pretty good bounce back starts. His strikeout rate (16.9%) is way down from his career average of 25.9%, but he should have plenty of SO opportunities tonight to help raise his season mark. The Braves have hit a total of 5 HR’s on the year, so the longball shouldn’t be a concern for Harvey in this game. Harvey does come with a bit of risk, so he may be better suited for GPP’s rather than cash games. Regardless of the format you choose to roster him in, he should be considered as a top three or four pitcher on tonight’s slate.

Stanton destroys LHP (208 wRC+, .536 ISO since last year) and Realmuto leads off

Patrick Corbin has been a disappointment this year with a plummeting strikeout rate (14.3 K%) and 40.4 Hard%. This is a pitcher a new look Marlins lineup might be able to take advantage of. J.T. Realmuto’s value as a leadoff hitter sky rockets tonight. He has a 120 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP since last season and a 199 wRC+ over the last week. He can be had for under $3.5K. Martin Prado (134 wRC+ vs LHP, 215 wRC+ last seven days) and Marcell Ozuna (151 wRC+ vs LHP, 156 wRC+ last seven days) appear to be solid values rounding out the top five for stacking opportunities. The guy you might want to build your lineups around tonight though is Giancarlo Stanton. He has an enormous 208 wRC+ and .536 ISO vs LHP since last season, including a 52.3 Hard%. You don’t see those numbers against major league pitchers very often and he even took Kershaw deep last week. Stanton is expensive, but also likely the top OF play on the board tonight.

Cozart OUT tonight against Samardzija

The Reds have struggled against RHP this season. They own a .285 wOBA, 68 wRC+ and 22.2K% against them, making Samardzija an interesting GPP play this evening. While he doesn’t own a high strikeout rate (19.4%), Samardzija has done a good job limiting hard hit balls against him. He’s sporting a 21.4Hard% which is just under 5 points below his career average mark. Samardzija has also decreased his fly ball percentage to 29.6% which is just over five points below his career average. The Reds are projected to score 3.98 runs this evening though, making Samardzija a GPP only option. If you are looking for some exposure to the Reds LU this evening, Joey Votto (.415 wOBA – .229 ISO career vs RHP)is a solid option at the 1B position and Billy Hamilton (.269 wOBA – 65 wRC+ career vs RHP) is always a threat to steal a few bases, but will need to find a way to get on base first.

Nola has 18.0 K-BB% in 18 career starts, has gone 7 IP, 7+Ks in four of five this year

Aaron Nola has pitched at least seven innings with at least seven strikeouts in four of his five starts and now has an 18.0 K-BB% through 18 career starts. That’s a front end of the rotation performance. The Cardinals are a 126 wRC+ vs RHP that’s 2nd best in baseball and are able to fill the lineup with quality hitters, but it’s rare that you’re going to find a guy who has pitched this well for below $9K and you might want to consider him here. The Cardinals have hit for a lot of power (16.2 HR/FB both at home and vs RHP), but have league average K and BB rates vs righties and he has held RHBs to a .267 wOBA. Against a good pitcher, many of the Cardinal bats still project average value, but one place to look is the cleanup spot where Matt Adams has had a 204 wRC+ and 58.3 Hard% over the last week. His average batted ball distance is 276 feet this year. He’s less than $3K on either site. There are several more inferior pitchers on this slate you might want to attack though.

Orioles have a 132 wRC+ at home, 124 wRC+ vs RHP

Add the Orioles prowess against RHP and at home to Luis Severino’s 17.5 HR/FB since his call up and he could continue to have problems tonight after pitching poorly through his first four starts. Manny Machado (153 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Chris Davis (163 wRC+, .349 ISO vs RHP) lead the charge at two of the highest prices at their position. A more interesting value play might be Pedro Alvarez (116 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP), whose bat has suddenly come alive (269 wRC+ over the last week). Nearly this entire lineup has power and has the potential to return good value, mostly in the $3-4K range or even slightly below on FanDuel.

Angels in great spot against minor league journeyman

Junior Guerra is a 31 year old journeyman with four career major league innings, all in relief last June. He’s allowed nine runs with eight Ks over his last two AAA starts and is a pitcher the Angels should easily handle for however long he lasts. In fact, they have the 3rd highest run projection on the board (4.7) per our Vegas Odds page. Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP since 2015) had a big night last night and is a player you should be willing to pay up for tonight. Albert Pujols (117 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP) has seen his price sky rocket on DraftKings ($4.9K), but still remains a value on FanDuel tonight. Leadoff man Escobar has a 203 wRC+ ove rhte last week, while Kole Calhoun’s bat has come alive too over the last week (141 wRC+).