DFS Alerts
Conforto's price remains low in another great spot
Michael Conforto (162 wRC+, .283 ISO, 45.2 Hard% vs RHP) remains a great value for right around $4K or below against mediocre RHP and that’s exactly what Matt Wisler currently is with an ERA and estimators well over four and a 7.4 SwStr%. Wisler has a 36.4 Hard% and has allowed at least three runs in three of his four starts. The Mets flashed their power against a similar pitcher last night with multiple HRs in the first inning. Granderson and Cespedes each have a wRC+ above 140 and ISO above .220 vs RHP since last year. Duda (129 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP) and Walker (119 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) fill out stacks nicely
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, Matt Wisler
Lefty bats continue to shine atop Texas order
Rougned Odor really seems to be enjoying life as a leadoff hitter. He has just a 104 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, but with a .204 ISO and over the last week, he has a 215 wRC+/38.1 Hard%. Rookie sensation Nomar Mazara (198 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP) is an even better value at nearly $1K less on FanDuel and combines to make an potent one-two punch. Marco Estrada has a 2.92 ERA that’s hiding behind a 3.1 HR/FB, when his career rate is 9.9. His 8.6 SwStr% is actually below league average for the first time in his career, making his 24.3 K% difficult to buy into. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (0.73 GB/FB), who often generates a lot of popups, but could be in trouble in a tough park if things go wrong. The Rangers aren’t an overly imposing matchup, but they have been hitting the ball well (122 wRC+ last seven days). Mitch Moreland is another affordable bat to watch ($3.4K on both sites). He now has a 131 wRC+ and .234 ISO vs RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Mitch Moreland, Marco Estrada Jon Moscot scratched, John Lamb to start on Tuesday
Lamb hasn’t pitched in the majors this year, but might be a slight upgrade from Moscot despite an ERA over nine in 13.2 minor league innings this year due to a .480 BABIP and 54.4 LOB%. He had a 26.4 K% in 50 major league innings last year. It’s important to note that he is left handed and will change the dynamic of the matchup in this game.
Soler bats 2nd, Heyward remains out vs LH Niese
Jon Niese has pitched poorly and is in a tough spot against a powerful and well-discplined Cubs lineup (13.5 BB% vs LHP). The park will help mitigate some of the power risk, especially for RH hitters, but this is still a pitcher you can pick on. Unfortunately, the new #2 batter (Soler) has just an 82 wRC+ and .100 ISO vs LHP. Leadoff man, Dexter Fowler (142 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) has a good chance of scoring tonight and Anthony Rizzo (129 wRC+ vs LHP) has been hot (176 wRC+, 53.5 Hard%), but both cost well above $4K on either site. It might be interesting to look further down in the order for some value here. Ben Zobrist (154 wRC+, .189 ISO vs LHP) might be the top bat in the lineup vs southpaws at a much lower cost and Javier Baez has been hitting the ball hard (287 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%) in limited opportunities over the last week at a much reduced price with SS eligibility.
Other tagged players: Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, Jon Niese, Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo Arreita has allowed just four runs this season, but eight walks in his last two starts
Jake Arrieta has allowed just four runs this season and three of them in one start, going at least seven innings four times. He’s also struck out more than six just once and walked four in each of his last two starts. His 1.00 ERA is a full two runs lower than his estimators, which are still All Star quality around three. This is a pitcher who costs just above $12K though, so we have to be pretty confident we are getting an elite pitcher, especially facing a quality offense that walks more than 10% of the time. While he’s the best pitcher on the board tonight, he might not be the best value. If you have the salary left over, you want him as he’ll very likely be one of tonight’s top performers on the mound, but it’s not certain how much value he’ll provide beyond his price tag. In either case, there’s no interest in attacking him with a mostly right handed Pittsburgh lineup. The Pirates have the 2nd lowest run projection (3.0) on the board.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Logan Forsythe has a 142 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, 331 wRC+ over the last week
Scott Kazmir finally pitched well in his last start after a string of bad outings and it’s encouraging to see his velocity back up to last year’s levels and his SwStr above 9% over his last two starts. His 84 mph exit velocity is 7th in baseball (30 batted min.) and best on tonight’s slate. However, he’s fairly costly against one of the better offenses against LHP (112 wRC+, 35.4 Hard%). The top three in particular have torched lefties since last season. Logan Forsythe (179 wRC+, .314 ISO vs LHP) has been on fire (331 wRC+ over the last week) and is a decent value even in the upper price range for 2B with a 94 mph exit velocity this season. Brandon Guyer (142 wRC+ vs LHP) is a low priced OF alternative. Evan Longoria (159 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP) hasn’t been the player he once was, but still offers a big bat against southpaws.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Scott Kazmir, Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria Seager, Grandal sit vs LH Moore; Dodgers have 48 wRC+ over the last week
Matt Moore has struck out 19 of his last 51 batters at home and has been pitched extremely well in all four home starts this season, increasing his strikeout rate to 27.1%, while cutting his walk rate (5.4%) in half. The Dodgers shouldn’t be this bad, but have the lowest wRC+ (48) in baseball over the last week and have been terrible against LHP (78 wRC+), though we know they have more talent than that. As it is though, Moore is currently in a good spot tonight and becomes possibly the top value in his price, especially on FanDuel, where he’s $1K cheaper. The Dodgers have chosen to sit Corey Seager and Yasmani Grandal tonight, along with Chase Utley, leaving the top five batters in this lineup all below a 20 wRC+ over the last seven days and four of them in the negative. Kike Hernandez (236 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) is generally a great value against LHP atop the lineup at a low price, but has done nothing this year (-37 wRC+ last seven days).
Other tagged players: Enrique Hernandez Jon Gray has a 3.46 xFIP, 30.1 K% away from Coors
Jon Gray has been punished in two Coors starts this season, but his stuff should play up outside of Colorado and he’s in a great spot against a San Diego offense with a 67 wRC+ and 26.0 K% vs RHP. Away from Coors, he has a 3.46 xFIP and 30.1 K% since being called up last year. He’s mostly a two pitch guy right now, but his fastball/slider combo should play well against the right handed San Diego lineup. Melvin Upton will sit, but Brett Wallace (140 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since last season) might be an upgrade in this spot for daily fantasy players at under $3K. Myers and Kemp are average hitters vs RHP with some pop, but are more expensive in a pitcher’s park. Kemp does have a 193 wRC+ and 52.9 Hard% over the last week though. Gray is a steal on FanDuel for $5.5K, where he may be a popular GPP play tonight, but he also has enough upside in a great spot to be used on Draftkings at a significantly higher price ($7.9K).
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Brett Wallace, Wil Myers Domingo Santana (shoulder) SCRATCHED Monday
Santana has been scratched Monday night with right shoulder tightness. Alex Presley will bat leadoff and play RF.
As reported by: Tom Haudricourt
Robinson Cano owns a .456 wOBA and 210 wRC+ in 59 AB’s against RHP this year
With a Vegas projected run total of 3.79, the Mariners offense isn’t one that you probably want to have too much exposure to this evening. Gravemen owns a league average 20K%, but has a SIERA of 3.69 and a xFIP of 3.67. With that said, there are couple interesting plays against RHP Graveman. Robinson Cano has torched righties to a tune of a 210 wRC+ – .456 wOBA mark this season. He possesses the power upside that we look for in GPP’s, but keep in mind that the Oakland Coliseum may suppress that power tonight. Kyle Seager is another player that has legitimate upside as well. Although his average (.214 agasinst RHP) is poor, he owns a BABIP of just .190 to go along with a .268 ISO and 128 wRC+ against them this year.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Kyle Seager Shields owns 4.91 SIERA and 9.7BB% in 2016
Shields has not pitched well this season, owning a high SIERA of 4.91 and high walk rate of 9.7%. Luckily for him tonight, he will be pitching in the offense suppressing confines of Petco Park. Even so, there is a pretty good chance that he will struggle, especially given his poor track record this year. He’s not striking batters out (15.7K%) and is facing a COL lineup that has been performing well recently. Shields is an easy avoid tonight. For Colorado, Nolan Arenado should be considered a top option at the third base position this evening. He has been mashing RHP to a tune of .393 wOBA – .292 ISO – 126 wRC+ so far this season. Carlos Gonzalez is another top play on tonight’s slate and owns a .403 wOBA against RHP while on the road this year. Finally, Trevor Story owns a high 34.6K% over the past seven games but still represents a solid play in GPP’s tonight against Shields given his power potential (.409 ISO over his last seven days).
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story Karns 18.3 career HR/FB vs RHBs, Davis .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015
At first look, Nate Karns and his 25.0 K% might look like a strong option in a decent matchup in Oakland, but a deeper look shows a league average 9.7 SwStr% and a 12.5 BB% that hasn’t allowed him to go past 5.1 innings in three of his four starts. Additionally, he has a HR/FB above 15% both this year and career despite pitching in great parks. With little overall platoon split for Karns, RHBs do have an 18.3 HR/FB against him in his career. You might want to look at the Khris Davis (120 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since last season) for nearly $3K on both sites as they guy with the strongest potential to go yard and provide extra value in the cleanup spot. Reddick, Vogt and Coughlan also have ISOs right around .200 against righties since 2015 with a wRC+ between 118 and 132. It’s a tough park, but Karns has shown a tendency to be unable to avoid HRs in any park.
Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Stephen Vogt, Chris Coghlan, Nate Karns Keuchel owned 28K% - 17Hard% while pitching at home in 2015
While Keuchel has struggled so far in 2016 season, he is in prime position for a bounce back game this evening against the strikeout-prone Twins. Minnesota ranks in the bottom three offenses against LHP this year, owning a 71 wRC+ and 26K%. In 2015, Kuechel was nearly flawless when pitching in Minute Maid Park. He owned a line of 28K% – 17Hard% – 2.20 xFIP in 129.1 IP there. While we can’t expect him to duplicate his performance from last season, he should have no problem continuing his dominate ways in Minute Maid. Consider him a top three SP option on tonight’s slate. On the Minnesota side of things, they are projected by Vegas to only score 3.36 runs. Their offense isn’t particularly appealing, but they do have a few players that could be considered in tournaments. Brian Dozier (.358 wOBA -.221 ISO – 128 wRC+ career vs LHP) and Miguel Sano (.390 wOBA – .247 ISO – 151 WRC+ career vs LHP) hit LHP very well and possess the kind of power upside we look for in GPP’s. Affordable leadoff hitter Danny Santana ($2.6K) is also an option, especially given his DraftKings price tag.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana Wainwright continues to struggle, may be some value in low owned Phillies bats
Adam Wainwright declared optimism after a season high five Ks in his last outing, but it was far from successful with a 5.4 SwStr% and 43.8 Hard%. He’s just not the same pitcher he used to be and there’s very little value in him at current costs even against the Phillies. Nor is there much value in a weak Phillies lineup in a tough park. There are a couple of light considerations though. Odubel Herrera continues to impress from the leadoff spot with a 117 wRC+ vs RHP. Maikel Franco has a 120 wRC+ vs same handed pitching, but has really struggled over the last week (5 wRC+, 10.5 Hard%). Ryan Howard has a .236 ISO vs RHP since last season, though mostly at home in a more power friendly park, but does have a 95 mph average exit velocity and 254 foot average distance on batted balls this season. There may be a couple of low owned spots you can take advantage of if Wainwright continues to struggle.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard, Adam Wainwright Nationals own 73 wRC+ and .292 wOBA against RHP this season
With the exception of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, the Nationals have struggled against RHP so far this season. Against them, as a team they own a 73 wRC+ and a .292 wOBA. RHP Edinson Volquez (3.86 SIERA – 3.78 xFIP – 24.7Hard% – 19.5K%) has pitched well this season and should be in for a solid outing tonight if he can work around Harper (.421 wOBA – .393 ISO – 160 WRC+ vs RHP) and Murphy (.410 wOBA – .206 ISO – 152 wRC+ vs RHP). Of course that is a pretty big “if”, given how well those two have been hitting. Consider Volquez as a SP2 on DraftKings, especially given his price point ($7.3K).
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy