DFS Alerts
Berrios making second career start against power packed HOU lineup
Following an understandably shaky first career start from Berrios, he will be taking on the boom or bust lineup of the Houston Astros. Berrios allowed 6 H, 5 ER, and 2 BB in his debut, but we should expect an improved performance from him this evening. He possesses immense strikeout upside, as shown by his 2015 strikeout percentage of 27.7%. The Astros strike out 27% of the time against RHP, but also have already hit 25 HR of them this season. He makes for an interesting SP2 on GPP rosters, but is definitely not a safe cash game play just yet. If you are looking to roster a few HOU hitters this evening, Jose Altuve (.326 wOBA – 106 wRC+ career vs RHP at home) and Carlos Correa (.385 wOBA – .200 ISO – 147 wRC+ career vs RHP at home) are usually always in play and hit RHP very well at home. Also to be considered is Colby Rasmus (.417 wOBA – .338 ISO – 177 wRC+ vs RHP this season), who has 7 HR this season off of RHP.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Colby Rasmus
Moustakas sits vs tough lefty
Mike Moustakas gets a rare night off against a tough LHP in Gio Gonzalez, who is pitching some of the best baseball of his career right now with a 24.3 K% and career low 6.8 BB% so far that’s let him go at least six innings in every start so far. It’s a tough trip to Kansas City against a team suddenly showing power vs LHP (14.6 HR/FB), but their accompanying -2.3 Hard-Soft% suggest that will not last and they’re surprisingly striking out at a league average (19.8%) vs southpaws as well. Gio may not be the top value in a still not in a favorable spot against a tough club, but should be considered tonight on a short slate, at least on DraftKings for just over $8K, with a lack of top trustable arms in play, even if he is more accurately priced on FanDuel. Lorenzo Cain hammers LHP (159 wRC+, .231 ISO since 2015), but is currently struggling with a 56 wRC+ and 13.3 Hard% over the last week. Kendrys Morales may provide some value from the right side for below $3K, but his 116 wRC+ matches his ISO vs LHP since last season and Gio has shown strong HR suppression skills throughout his career (8.5 HR/FB).
Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales
Braves own tonight’s lowest Vegas projected run total against Bartolo Colon
At only 2.87 projected runs, the Braves own the lowest Vegas total of the entire slate. This should bode well for Colon and the Mets, who are -195 favorites. Through 13.2 IP this season, Colon holds a 28K% and .271 wOBA against when facing lefties. The Braves will roll out 5 LHB in their LU this evening, setting Colon up for a solid outing. While Colon isn’t likely go pitch anymore than 5 or 6 innings, he makes for a pretty good SP2 play on DK ($6.7K). There is really no need to consider any ATL players in this one.
As reported by: Fangraphs Toronto has the top projected run line tonight (4.9 runs)
A.J. Griffin is riding a .211 BABIP and 6.1 HR/FB that won’t last. He got just three swinging strikes when he shut down the Yankees for eight innings in his last start, but that certainly looks less impressive now. He brings a dangerous 0.74 career GB/FB to Toronto. Josh Donaldson (150 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Jose Bautista (153 wRC+, .300 ISO) have both pounded same handed pitchers since last season and are top plays at their position. Edwin Encarnacion (143 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2015) appears to be struggling (20 wRC+ last seven days), but joins the other two and Troy Tulowitzki (93 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP since 2015) with a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Michael Saunders, in the leadoff spot, is the other bat you want to look at in your stack. He has a 189 wRC+ over the last week, though with just an 18.8 Hard%. Toronto projects for the highest run total tonight (4.9) per our Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Saunders, A.J. Griffin Odor has a 214 wRC+ over the last week in leadoff spot
R.A. Dickey is missing bats at a league average rate again (18.2 K%, 9.6 SwStr%), but has also been getting hit hard (17.1 Hard-Soft%). His BABIP and LOB% are at extremes and are likely to regress in his favor, but the Ranges come to town with some hot LH bats (though Dickey has no real career platoon split). Rougned Odor has taken to the leadoff spot with a 214 wRC+ over the last week. He and Mitch Moreland (131 wRC+ since 2015, 173 wRC+ last seven days) both have an ISO above .200 vs RHP since last season. Nomar Mazara has cooled off (66 wRC+ last seven days), but still has a 180 wRC+ vs RHP. Even Ian Desmond has found his stroke over the last week (175 wRC+). Prince Fielder continues to struggle, but has been the best overall bat (133 wRC+) vs RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, Nomar Mazara, Prince Fielder, R.A. Dickey Hellickson improved, but hard sell vs Cardinals (123 wRC+ vs RHP) in St Louis
Randal Grichuk and Jeremy Hazelbaker take seats tonight as the Cardinals just trot out so many players that hit RHP well. Jeremy Hellickson has the top strikeout rate (25.7%) on the slate tonight, but has allowed a lot of hard contact in the air the rest of the time (0.83 GB/FB, 32.4 Hard%, 13.3 HR/FB). That’s concerning and really hurts his potential value even at a below average price and high K% against a tough St Louis lineup (15.2 HR/FB, 123 wRC+, 14.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). Carpenter, Piscotty, and Holliday, the top three, all have a wRC+ between 120 and 150 vs RHP since last season preventing above average value at various prices. Carpenter is the most expensive, but adds the top ISO (.244) and Hard% (40.6) vs RHP from the leadoff spot along with the top wRC+ (147). In the middle Moss, Molina, and Adams all fall just below average (92-98 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), though Moss still generates power with an ISO above .200 and a batted ball distance averaging over 250 feet this season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Matt Holliday, Jeremy Hellickson, Brandon Moss Nelson struggles with walks and HRs at home (14.4 HR/FB), but holds RHBs to .276 wOBA
Jimmy Nelson is marginal pitcher with control issues (10.9 BB% this year) in a tough park (14.4 career HR/FB at home). Add in a 6.3 SwStr% and average price tag against an offense with a 152 wRC+ over the last week. There’s virtually no interest in rostering him tonight. He has held RHBs to a .276 wOBA over his career with just five HRs allowed against them in Milwaukee, so we’re not necessarily attacking him with a RH heavy lineup either. The bats that do interest us are Kole Calhoun (111 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP since last season) with the park upgrade and Rafael Ortega (122 wRC+ last seven days) in the two slot from the left side and, of course, Mr. Trout (167 wRC+, .291 ISO, 41.1 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) who is expensive, but hammers pitchers no matter which arm they throw with.
Other tagged players: Rafael Ortega, Mike Trout, Jimmy Nelson Conforto (258 wRC+ last seven days) is a top OF value below $4K on DraftKings
Mike Foltynewicz has walked 14 of 88 AAA batters faced this year and that has earned up a promotion to start for the big league club tonight. A 0.77 GB/FB last year against a powerful lineup (13.6 HR/FB, 16.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) could get him in trouble. Michael Conforto (163 wRC+, .287 ISO, 45.1 Hard% vs RHP) is still unfathomably below $4K on DraftKings where he might be the top OF value of the night (258 wRC+, 45.0 Hard% over the last seven days). Granderson and Cespedes join him in the upper half of the lineup with a 140+ wRC+, .220+ ISO vs RHP since last season, while Duda and Walker in the middle feature a 120+, 190 ISO vs righties since 2015. David Wright has been striking out a ton and may have trouble catching up with the hard stuff, but is still hitting the ball over 250 feet on average when he does connect this year and has a prime lineup spot ahead of several sluggers batting 2nd. The Mets are one of the top stacks of the night.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, Mike Foltynewicz Heyward sits, LaStella bats 2nd vs Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole is a good pitcher, but of slight concern is a SwStr% that’s dropped in every start since his first. It’s sat below average in each of his last three and now just 7.8% on the season. It’s not a big deal just yet, but he would have trouble maintaining a league average K% if this continued and he faces a team that has drastically cut down on their strikeouts (19.7% vs RHP) and greatly increased their walks (13.2% vs RHP), while maintaining the power they showed last season. Cole is still one of the better pitchers in the league and remains an option at a reduced price (just over $9K on both major sites) in a great home park, but may not be expected to produce much excess value against a tough lineup tonight. Cole generally keeps the ball on the ground, especially against RHBs in a park that kills RH power, so we probably want to throw out all RHBs immediately and refrain from attacking him overall, though Tommy LaStella (132 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) may offer some value at a shallow position for under $3K batting second. Anthony Rizzo (150 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is nearly matchup proof vs RHP, but is fairly expensive.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Tommy La Stella Giants bats (107 wRC+ vs LHP) not in a bad spot in Cincinnati, but costly
Brandon Finnegan has yet to complete seven innings and hasn’t struck out more than five since his first start. All of that might not be that worrisome in a young, talented arm at a low price, but he’s walked 12.4% of the batters he’s faced and faces a tough offense in what could be a dangerous park for a pitcher with an 18.3 HR/FB to start his career. The Giants are down a couple of bats (Panik, Pagan), but a solid heart of the order remains intact. The remaining issue is that they come at a high price (at least on DraftKings). The top bat vs LHP in the lineup actually belongs to Brandon Belt (136 wRC+, .205 ISO, 37.9 Hard% vs LHP since 2015). He’s been hammering the ball (208 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%) over the last week, but is the highest priced first baseman as Buster Posey (133 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the highest priced catcher. Hunter Pence (96 wRC+ vs LHP) is equally hot (243 wRC+, 50 Hard% over the last week), but equally as pricey as well.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Brandon Finnegan Jason Hammel has a 23.7 K%, but has only thrown more than 90 pitches once
Pittsburgh has been a very successful offense this season (117 wRC+ vs RHP) more through plate discipline (17.5 K%, 12.5 BB% vs RHP) than power (9.7 HR/FB, 28.7 Hard% vs RHP). Additionally, their home park plays very tough on RH power, muting some of the offense. This doesn’t make this a good matchup for Jason Hammel, but it might be more navigable. He has a 23.7 K% and has gone exactly six innings in each start, but no more and only beyond 90 pitches once. That seems to be the plan for him ever since last season. This obviously limits his upside with a cost on FanDuel that might be too high ($8.9K), though it seems more reasonable on DraftKings ($8K). As such, it’s tough to see any Pirate bats as great values against a pitcher with a .298 wOBA vs RHBs in a tough park. Especially if we know they’ll be mixing and matching in the bullpen after two or three opportunities. John Jaso (131 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) probably provides the best value at just over $3K, but Andrew McCutchen (136 wRC+ vs RHP) is heating up (184 wRC+, 41.2 Hard% over the last week) and can never be totally counted out, even at a higher cost. He has averaged 268 feet on batted balls this season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen Weaver is beating his peripherals with an 85.0 LOB%, not BABIP this year
You might think Jered Weaver (3.86 ERA/6.03 xFIP/5.50 FIP) is back to his old peripheral beating ways, but while he used to do it with a low BABIP (.271 career, .289 this year), he’s doing it with a much less sustainable 85 LOB% this season, which lends itself much less to sustainability through certain skill sets and he’s doing it throwing just 82.3 mph with the 3rd highest average distance among qualifiers (30 BB min.) at 262 feet. His 7.4 SwStr% might suggest a few more strikeouts, but it’s still well below average and he didn’t do much more with an 8.3 SwStr% last year. As such, Ryan Braun (127 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since last season) seems a bit expensive (above $4K on both sites), but Chris Carter has hit for even more power vs RHP (109 wRC+, .272 ISO) and is about $1K cheaper. Also, take a look at Kirk Nieuwenhuis as a potential sleeper. He has an 89 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, but with some power (.179 ISO vs RHP) and a 137 wRC+ over the last week. Jered Weaver has allowed a .348 wOBA to LHBs since last season, but Scooter Gennet (93 wRC+ vs RHP) is a below average hitter, who offers no salary relief. Vegas has Milwaukee with the 2nd highest projected run line tonight (4.7).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chris Carter, Scooter Gennett, Ryan Braun, Jered Weaver Hamilton bats leadoff against top priced pitcher on the board
While having Billy Hamilton atop the lineup increases his value, it’s still not worth much if he can’t get on base (44 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015). He’s also facing the top priced pitcher on the board, Johnny Cueto, coming off a shutout in his last start with 11 Ks. He’s not doing it with BABIP this season (.311), but rather a nice big new park that has afforded him a 3.8 HR/FB so far. He has a career 9.9 HR/FB, but does return to his old home with solid peripherals surrounding the noise (3.26 SIERA/3.09 xFIP). The one area of concern is that Cueto threw 119 pitches in his last start and you can bet Bruce Bochy will be cognizant of that fact. He still has a top matchup (66 wRC+ vs RHP) and could still get through seven innings relatively unscathed. We’re not really looking to attack Cueto in the first place, but Tucker Barnhart (batting 8th) has the highest wRC+ in the lineup over the last week (102). Joey Votto (158 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) does have a 63.6 Hard% over the last week and is the only above average bat vs RHP.
Charlie Blackmon leading off again today, facing Shelby Miller
Charlie Blackmon is leading off for the Rockies. He is a dual threat to steal a base and hit a home run, possessing a 0.177 ISO versus right-handed pitchers in 2015. As an added bonus, the game is at Chase Field, the 6th most power-friendly place to play for left-handed batters according to the RotoGrinders Park Factors tool.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Park Factors and FanGraphs Other tagged players: Shelby Miller
Look for the Rangers to get some run today versus Geo Soto
Roughned Odor and Ian Desmond are in one of the best positions to steal a few bases today. The RotoGrinders stolen base tool has the pitcher and catcher matchup evaluated as a -2.42. Odor is leading off and Desmond is batting fifth, but has been running from that position in the lineup in recent weeks.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Tool Other tagged players: Ian Desmond