DFS Alerts

Kevin’s late update is out and there were a few games with concerns this morning that look a bit differently now. There still remains some potential for disturbance in the SF@NYM and WAS@STL games, but the main concern is now in the LAA@TEX game, which many players are likely to have a good amount of exposure to due to Colby Lewis’s 17.1 HR/FB this season. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page linked below.

Tigers top prospect Fulmer makes major league debut in Minnesota

Tigers top prospect Michael Fulmer will make his major league debut in Minnesota tonight. He was the arm they got back for Cespedes last year from the pitching rich Mets. The talent has never been in question, it’s usually been about health. He’s struck out 20 of 69 batters this season and had well above average K rates with average BB rates in his trips through the minors, although fangraphs questions whether his ultimate future lies in the rotation or pen, due his inability to get deep into games possibly. He commands a near average price tag on both sites tonight and hasn’t completed six innings in three AAA starts, but the talent is there and he might be worth a flyer at low expected ownership with the ability to rack up a few Ks. The one bat to look at from the Minnesota side is Miguel Sano (144 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP). He has a 257 foot average distance this year with a 175 wRC+ at home since his callup last year. He’s hit 46.2% of batted balls hard over this last week. Vegas has Minnesota with the 2nd highest projected run total tonight (4.6), but that may be because Fulmer is an unknown to most fans.

Mike Fiers holds an 18.1K% this year, down from his career average of 24%

Fiers has noticed his K% decline heavily over the past two seasons. In 2014, Fiers posted a 28K%, followed by a mark of 23.7K% in 2015. He currently holds an 18.1K%, which is much lower than his career average of 24%. This suggests that Fiers may not possess the strike out upside that we once associated him with. He also hasn’t pitched very well this year, owning a very high Hard Hit rate of 39.2% and a 5.51 FIP. With a Vegas projected run total of 3.50, the Oakland bats aren’t particularly appealing options, but could make for a low owned GPP stack against a pitcher who has struggled this year. Stephen Vogt (.353 wOBA – 128 wRC+ – .211 ISO in 2015 vs RHP) represents the top option in the OAK lineup, and Josh Reddick (.335 wOBA – 114 wRC+ career vs RHP) is also playable as he is in a prime spot this evening.

Stanton OUT tonight in Milwaukee, Ichiro inherits leadoff spot

In an already rather neutral situation, Giancarlo Stanton will take a set for the Marlins tonight, leaving them without two key lineup pieces (Dee Gordon) against the unimpressive Zach Davies in Milwaukee. Davies is a bit of an unknown, who’s projections range from a mid-rotation starter at peak upside to bullpen arm according to fangraphs. Ichiro Suzuki (45 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) immediately inherits the leadoff spot, but might be toast at this point. The good news is Christian Yelich (128 wRC+ vs RHP) seems to finally be reaching his potential, but the Marlins continue to stick their best bat vs RHP (Derek Dietrich 140 wRC+, .238 ISO) down in the order when he does play.

Despite Harper (206 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), Nats have just a 73 wRC+ vs RHP

It’s Bryce Harper’s world and we’re all just living in it. Unfortunately for him, all of the RH Nats refuse to even visit, especially when a RH pitcher is on the mound. Even with Harper’s heroics (206 wRC+, .367 ISO, 38.9 Hard% vs RHP since last season) and Murphy’s help (126 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP), Washington has just a 73 wRC+ vs RHP. Unfortunately, Mike Leake’s 5.3 SwStr%, 35.1 LD%, and 37.7 Hard% makes it difficult to take advantage of that even in a park that greatly suppresses power. Anthony Rendon has the next highest wRC+ (84) vs RHP since 2015 in tonight’s lineup.

Strasburg owns a 28.7K% so far this season

Strasburg has pitched well this season, owning an impressive 28.7K% and a 2.69 xFIP. Also impressive is his 22.9Hard% this season, which is over 5 points lower than his career average. While the Cardinals do rank first against RHP this season, Strasburg is an elite SP and shouldn’t have much of an issue sending hitters back to the dugout this evening, especially with Brandon Moss and Yadier Molina being out of tonight’s lineup. Strasburg represents one of the best pitching options on the board, so fire him up in all formats this evening.

Colby Lewis has stranded 97.8% of runners, but allowed six HRs in 24 innings

The suddenly hot Angels will attempt to pummel Colby Lewis, who has hidden his 17.1 HR/FB this season behind an absurd 97.8 LOB%. Six HRs in 24 innings isn’t a surprise when you have 21.0 Hard-Soft% over the last two calendar years. Mike Trout (167 wRC+, .293 ISO, 41.1 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) and Albert Pujols (114 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP) each have a 220+ wRC+, 50+ Hard% over the last week and we haven’t even gotten to their success against Lewis. They’ve combined for seven HRs and since last year have a 97.8 mph (Pujols) and 104.3 mph (Trout) average exit velocity with seven batted balls each since last year against him. Additionally, Yunel Escobar (115 wRC+ vs RHP) and C.J. Cron (112 wRC+) a bit lower each have a wRC+ above 190 over the last week. An Angels stack may be in order with the top projected run line (4.7) tonight.

Kluber is top pitching option on tonight’s slate

So far through 2016, Kluber holds a 26.6K% and SwStr of 14%. He’s also done a good job limiting the walks, as evident by his 4.6BB% this year. He should cruise through the weak Phillies offense tonight who own a Vegas projected run total of just 2.91. Kluber is a -188 favorite, showing that he should be in line for “W” this evening as well. Avoid the Phillies bats and fire up Kluber in all formats with confidence.

Carlos Santana sits in NL park against the Phillies

Adam Morgan turned a 0.62 GB/FB with a 13.9 K% into an ERA with estimators well over four in Philadelphia last year. He’s struck out 20 of 75 batters at AAA this season, but is still not a chance we’d comfortably take. Cleveland does lose one of it’s top bats in Santana in an NL park, but still boast some solid value starting with potentially the top SS tonight in Francisco Lindor (153 wRC+, .192 ISO vs LHP) and Mike Napoli (151 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP since last season). Napoli has just a 33 wRC+ over the last week, but a 58.3 Hard% suggests he’s hit the ball much better than that. Morgan allowed a .351 wOBA to RHBs last season. Be sure to keep an eye on Kevin’s weather report for potential concern in this game.

Brewers hold a 26.7K% against LHP this year

While Adam Conley has posted a solid 25.3K% this year, he’s allowing a 37Hard%. Luckily for him, he will be facing a Brewers team that is ranks in the bottom three in the league against LHP. As a team, they hold a 26.7K% and 76 wRC+ vs lefties so far through 2016. So while Conley is actually in a pretty good spot to rack up some K’s this evening, the O/U for this game is 9 and the Brewers are projected to score just under 4.5 runs. Conley represents a high risk, high reward GPP play this evening. On the Brewer’s side of things, Ryan Braun (.434 wOBA – .292 ISO – 172 wRC+ career vs LHP) and Jonathan Lucroy (.362 wOBA – 126 wRC+ career vs LHP) represent top plays at their respective positions.

Cabrera has five HRs, 96.1 mph exit velocity against Phil Hughes

Everyone’s new favorite daily fantasy catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia) is out of the lineup tonight, but the Tigers still bring a lot of offensive firepower from the RH side against a HR prone pitcher. Hughes has looked better this season, but not nearly as good as his first season in Minnesota and carries a career .327 wOBA vs RHBs. Although there have been a few more GBs this year, he has a career 0.79 GB/FB and an 11.9 HR/FB at home since last year. Minnesota is tough on LH power, but more neutral for RH HRs. There are two bats that stand out particularly Miguel Cabrera (159 wRC+, .193 ISO, 40.3 Hard% vs RHP) with his five career HRs in 44 PAs against Hughes and a 96.1 mph average exit velocity in six batted balls since last season. He has a .223 wRC+ over the last week. J.D. Martinez has a 133 wRC+, .235 ISO, and 40.4 Hard% vs RHP since last season.

Mike Wright owns a career 13.7K%

Mike Wright owns a career 13.7%K, 5.05 SIERA and 5.49 xFIP. He’s definitely not a pitcher to roster, and it would probably be a good idea to have some exposure to a few CWS bats tonight. With a Vegas projected run line total of just under 4, the White Sox are expected to put a few runs on the board this evening. Jose Abreu (.380 wOBA – .238 ISO – 144 wRC+ career vs RHP) represents one of the top 1B plays on the board tonight and should have no problem hitting Wright. Realistically, any of the 1-4 White Sox batters are in play and could be a sneaky GPP stack tonight.

Sanchez is a weak ground ball machine (61.2 GB%, 0.9 Hard-Soft%)

Aaron Sanchez is coming off his first bad outing, but his SwStr% hasn’t exceeded 6.5 since his first start and has been below 5.0 in each of his last two. He frequently throws a hard sinker at 95 mph that generates a ton of weak contact on the ground (61.2 GB%, 0.9 Hard-Soft% career), but not so many strikeouts potentially. The upside tonight lies in the Tampa Bay offense, which has struck out 28.1% of the time vs RHP. If this can help him to somewhere around an average K% with a great contact profile in a good park, he should be a solid mid-range pick on the mound tonight. His control isn’t perfect (7.9 BB%), but it’s at least been average this year. With all of those ground balls and a .186 wOBA vs RHBs, it takes them off the board tonight and even puts Desmond Jennings on the bench. Lefties (.351 wOBA, 57.3 GB%) have had some success, making Corey Dickerson (146 wRC+, .305 ISO, 41.8 Hard%) a great value play again for below $3.5K. He retains a 250 foot average on batted balls in his first year outside of Colorado.

Drew Smyly owns a 30.8K% through 28.2 IP this year

Smyly has been solid throughout his 28.2 IP this year, owning an absurd 30.8K% and a walk rate of only 4.7%. Tonight he takes on a potent Blue Jay’s lineup that possesses a ton of power upside. While he may not make for a safe cash game play, he represents one of the best GPP pitchers on tonight’s slate. Surprisingly, the Blue Jay’s offense ranks 24th against LHP this year and own team 25.6K% against them. If Smyly can work around the power bats in the TOR lineup, he should be in for a huge night. Of course, Josh Donaldson (.418 wOBA – .308 ISO vs lefties) destroys LHP and is going to be a popular play tonight. But other than Donaldson, there isn’t a whole lot to like on the Blue Jay’s side of things tonight. Fire up Smyly with confidence in GPP’s.

Rodon continues to struggle with control (11 BB%), RHBs (.350 wOBA)

Carlos Rodon is averaging just 5.2 innings per start in the majors because he can’t throw strikes (11.4 BB%) or get RHBs out (.350 wOBA). All the talent in the world can’t overcome those two obstacles to make him worth an $8K daily fantasy price tag on a consistent basis. In fact, those two attributes can combine to get him in a lot of trouble in Baltimore. We still hesitate to attack him too heavily because he is talented enough to spin a quality start at any time, even if we can’t consistently count on it and also because guys like Machado and Jones are merely average vs LHP with a stark reverse split. However, that doesn’t mean we should necessarily avoid a star like Machado who is SS eligible on DK for just over $4K. There is also one bat that potentially projects for great value hitting cleanup. Mark Trumbo (149 wRC+, .294 ISO, 40.3 Hard% vs LHP since last season) has an absurd 95.99 average exit velocity this season with a 52.9 Hard% over the last week. Check back with Kevin later for potential weather concerns in this game though.