DFS Alerts

Can Latos keep this up?

Reiterating the point made before Latos’s last outing: The theme with Latos has been waiting for his ERA/xFIP pair of 3.25/3.65 in 2014, 4.95/3.69 in 2015, and 0.49/4.83 in 2016 to come back to reality. So far this season, he has possessed a very large xFIP, but somewhow than he had in 2014 and 2015, but somehow has an ERA of 0.49. It could be largely contributed to his nearly 92% LOB. For anyone who thinks the regression may begin today, start with Chris Davis.

Dustin Pedroia facing an up and down Pineda in Boston

You do not have to be a baseball analyst to see that elevating the baseball is required to hit a ball of the Green Monster. Some of Pineda’s early season struggles versus right-handed batters can be attributed to his 47.2% flyball percentage allowed on batted balls to right-handed batters. Pedroia so far this season is hitting fly balls 32% of the time against RHP. A fly ball or two should happen tonight and maybe one will find its way over the wall.

Wei-Yin Chen pitching away from Marlins Park tonight, making the Brewers interesting

Wei-Yin Chen finished 2015 giving up 1.58 HR/9 to right-handed batters and the change of scenery has not affected his performance against RHB, starting this year off with a 1.69 HR/9 against right-handed batters. And if anyone was wondering, 2 of those 4 homers were given up at Marlins Park, the second worst hitting environment for right-handed batters. While Miller Park is not exactly a bandbox for righties, eyeing Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Jonathon Lucroy, or Chris Carter might not be a bad idea.

John Jaso leading off, facing a weak right-handed pitcher today in Simon

Jaso in the last year has a wOBA of 0.354 against RHP. Simon can chop his 2016 HR/9 (8.10) in half and he would still be worth targeting with left-handed batters. Jaso is no Anthony Rizzo, but he has still displayed modest power finishing 2015 with an ISO of 0.107 against right-handed pitchers.

Logan Forsythe is just the beginning of 8 right-handed batters facing J.A. Happ today

J.A. Happ is a below average pitcher versus right-handed batters and the analytic-centric Rays are paying attention. Kevin Kiermaier is the lone lefty in the Rays lineup, leaving a plethora of power-hitting righties at the top of the order. Logan Forsythe and Even Longoria finished 2015 with ISOs of 0.299 and 0.226 against LHP, respectively. A leadoff hitter who steals bases and has a 0.299 ISO against LHP makes Forsythe a tough fade today.

Khris Davis facing a rookie and batting cleanup

C. Devenski is the rooke de-jour of the weekend. His numbers in 2015 are respectable, showing more weakness versus righties than versus lefties. His OPS allowed vs AA competition in 2015 was 0.835 against righties, compared to 0.517 against left-handed batters. This does not mean that left-handed bats should be ruled out on Saturday, but emphasizes the viability of right-handed batters like Khris Davis, who finished 2015 with a higher ISO (0.271) against RHP compared to vs LHP.

Jacob deGrom gets to face 4 right-handed batters today

50% of the batters Jacob deGrom will face will be right-handed swingers today with Matt Duffy, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Kelby Tomlinson all in the Giants lineup on Saturday. deGrom posted a 27.8 K% vs RHB in 2015, while allowing a meager 0.209 wOBA.

Kevin Roth had the Cubs and Braves game rated as RED / ORANGE, so we can chalk up yet another correct prognostication for Kevin Roth. What can we say, the man is good at his job. For the rest of Roth’s weather report today on games with possible rain like Pittsburgh, check out his report: https://rotogrinders.com/threads/saturday-weather-sneak-peek-return-of-the-red-1286864

J.D. Martinez again batting 2nd for the Tigers

Tyler Duffey is one of weaker pitchers throwing today. Duffey in his young career has a 0.318 wOBA against left-handed batters and a 0.308 wOBA wOBA against right-handed batters. Ownership percentage on days J.D. Martinez faces righties would seem to indicate the DFS community is well aware of Martinez’s power versus both lefties and righties. In 2015, J.D. finished the year with an impressive 0.258 ISO vs. RHP. Batting in the two-hole today, J.D. Martinez should be part of a productive offensive day for the Tigers.

Hazelbaker leading off in front of Carpenter for the Cards

Joe Ross returns from time off this Saturday to face the Cardinals. If Ross has had a weakness in his early career, it is his performance against lefties, establishing a 0.351 wOBA versus lefties. Dependable lefty, Matt Carpenter is a great target to welcome Joe Ross back, along with Hazelbaker who is leading off. Hazelbaker has a K% of 23.2% versus righties this year, meaning there is a good chance he sets the table for Carpenter today.

Sean Manaea will make his MLB debut tonight against the Astros

Manaea has pitched well throughout his minor league career and has struck out at least 27% of hitters at each minor league level. Tonight he will take on the Houston Astro’s, who possess plenty of power upside to go along with their high strikeout numbers. While pitching in Safeco will definitely work in Manaea’s favor tonight, there are better options to consider on this slate, making him a GPP only option. The Astros are projected by Vegas to score 3.97 runs tonight, not making them overly attractive options. Jose Altuve (.389 wOBA – 149 wRC+ career vs LHP) crushes lefties and is one of the best 2B plays of the night. Also to be considered is Carlos Correa (.373 wOBA – 138 wrc+ vs LHP), but his price tag is quite high comparative to the other top options on tonight’s slate.

Carlos Gonzalez OUT tonight vs LHP Robbie Ray, Charlie Blackmon back from injury

Carlos Gonzalez will sit this one out tonight, as the Rockies will travel to Arizona to face LHP Robbie Ray. Lefty masher Ryan Raburn (.359 wOBA – .228 ISO – 123 wRC+ career vs LHP) will take his spot this evening and bat fifth, making him a top value play at only $3K on DK. The Rockies own a Vegas projected run total of just 4, making Ray an easy target tonight. Charlie Blackmon is back from the DL and is batting leadoff, but it may be wise to wait a game or two before rostering him. Trevor Story (.457 wOBA – .440 ISO – 166 wRC+ vs LHP) will look to go deep again tonight, and is definitely a top play in any option.
Keep in mind that Nolan Arenado has destroyed lefties at Coors in the past, but has struggled against them on the road (62 wRC+ – .295 ISO in 2015 vs LHP on the road). Even so, the Rockies make for a solid power upside stack in GPP’s.

SEA LHB's in prime spot against Medlen tonight

Kris Medlen has not pitched very well this season, as he owns an xFIP of 4.99 and an elevated 34.1Hard%. Tonight he will be pitching against the lefty heavy lineup of the Seattle Mariners. Medlen has struggled against lefties over the past two years, as evident by his xFIP of over 5 against LHB since 2015. The Mariners are projected to score 3.85 runs this evening, and should get to Medlen early in this one. Robinson Cano (.519 wOBA – .489 ISO – 257 wRC+ in 47 AB against RHP this season) is arguably the best 2B option on tonight’s slate and should be considered in all formats. Seth Smith (.360 wOBA – .203 ISO – 123 wRC+ career against RHP) is hitting second and is great source of value for the OF position. Also to be considered is Adam Lind (.367 wOBA – .214 ISO – 128 wRC+ career vs RHP), who has made a living crushing RHP.

Padres have a 122 wRC+, 15.6 HR/FB and 18.3 Hard-Soft% vs LHP.

Alex Wood has a 1.0 K-BB% and has allowed at least three ERs in three of his four starts. He is no longer a daily fantasy option and may belong back in the bullpen. The Padres, on the other hand, have the 5th best offense (122 wRC+) vs LHP this year with a 15.6 HR/FB and 18.3 HR/FB. This is all coming from a suddenly solid middle of the order led by Wil Myers in the two spot (142 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) who has a 197 wRC+ and 42.9 Hard% over the last week. Matt Kemp (137 wRC+, .242 ISO, 40.5 Hard% vs LHP) still handles southpaws very well too. We probably don’t want to go much further than that as Wood is still generating a 64.3 GB% this year, but just doesn’t miss bats anymore.

ARI bats represent one of the top stacks this evening against Chatwood

With the third highest Vegas projected run total (4.62), the Arizona lineup is in a prime spot to do some damage against Tyler Chatwood tonight in Chase Field. While Chatwood has pitched alright this year, he only owns a 16K% and has allowed a 15HR/FB%. That may not bode well for him tonight, as the ARI lineup possesses some hitters who should take full advantage of their matchups tonight. David Peralta is only $3.5K on DK and is the top OF option on tonight’s slate. Welington Castillo (.152 ISO in 2016 vs RHP), Paul Goldschmidt (.383 wOBA – .226 ISO – 140 wRC+ career vs RHP), and Jake Lamb (.398 wOBA – .224 ISO – 140 wRC+ in 2016 vs RHP) are players should be highly considered in all formats. Diamondback hitters 1-6 make for an excellent tournament stack this evening.