DFS Alerts

Cespedes returns to face Peavy

Yoenis Cespedes (148 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015) returns to the lineup after missing most of a week with a leg injury. He hit a 3-run HR in a pinch hit appearance earlier in the week. Jake Peavy has his highest SwStr% in a decade (11.8), but allows a lot of hard contact (16.2 Hard-Soft%) in the air (1.06 GB/FB) and that could be trouble against an offense with a 17.4 Hard-Soft% and 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP this year, even in a pitcher’s park (though now more neutral for HRs). Subtracting Wright (106 wRC+), five of the top six in the lineup have a wRC+ above 115 and ISO above .190 vs RHP since last season. Granderson (148 wRC+, .226 ISO) bats in a great spot atop the lineup, but the top value here, even eclipsing Cespedes’s numbers vs RHP is Michael Conforto for just $3.5K on DraftKings. He has a 155 wRC+, .274 ISO, and 44.4 Hard% vs RHP, a .227 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard% over the last week. Additionally, Wright, Cespedes, and Walker are all averaging more than 90 mph and 250 feet on batted balls. Be sure to read Kevin’s late update for weather concerns in this game.

Straily has a 12.4 BB%, 26.7 Hard-Soft% this season

The Pittsburgh offense may look a bit enhanced coming off a trip to Colorado and coming back to the other extreme in a pitcher’s park, but they might still be too much for Dan Straily to handle with a 12.4 BB% and 26.7 Hard-Soft%. This is a lineup with RHBs that hit well against RHPs with three of the top four (Jaso, McCutchen, and Marte) sitting between a 125-140 wRC+ vs righties since last season and even the three, five, and six guys (Freese, Cervelli, Polanco) are above average (110-115 wRC+) against RHP since 2015. While it’s difficult to find the one great value in this lineup with the top two bats priced well over $4K, the top six are all up for consideration. David Freese also has a 64.7 Hard% this last week, while McCutchen’s average distance on batted balls is now 270 feet after Coors.

Tanaka has increased GB% & SwStr%, but faces 2nd best offense vs RHP

Masahiro Tanaka has allowed just two ERs in each of his four starts with just a total of two HRs and a 13.8 SwStr%. The long ball at home has been his biggest achilles heel in his Yankees career, but an improved 56.7 GB% and a trip to Boston, which few people realize has one of the lowest LH HR factors in baseball, helps neutralize this tonight. Even so, Boston is hot and has the 2nd best offense (126 wRC+) vs RHP this season. Tanaka is not cheap, but below his usual $10K price tag and may even project for some excess value beyond his cost for $8.2K on DraftKings. This is not a pitcher we want to attack, but with his weakness towards LH power (18.4 career HR/FB vs LHBs on the road), we might still want to consider David Ortiz (163 wRC+, .320 ISO, 43.6 Hard%) as an isolated play with an average exit velocity of 94 mph with a distance of 257 feet and seven batted balls that averaged 98.5 mph off his bat against Tanaka since last season.

Nicasio hasn't lived up to March promise, but faces 2nd worst offense vs RHP (67wRC+) at low price

Juan Nicasio has delivered on none of the promise he showed in March since his first start (14 IP – 11 BB – 14 K – 65 BF) and hasn’t exceeded a 6.3 SwStr% in any of his last three starts. LHBs have soundly thumped him for a .402 wOBA since last season. The Cincinnati lineup is back intact with Phillips and Bruce returning minus Mesoraco though tonight. However, they’re still not very good and their 67 wRC+ vs RHP is tied for 2nd worst in the league with the Braves. On matchup and park alone, Nicasio stands out as a useful complimentary pitcher on DraftKings for $5.8K, though I’d think longer and harder about using him at a higher price on one pitcher sites. Pittsburgh plays nearly neutral for LH power, making Jay Bruce (100 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP since 2015) a moderately valued bat tonight. Take a good look at Joey Votto (158 wRC+, .221 ISO, 42.8 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) as potentially the top value play at a loaded 1B position tonight for $3.5K or less on both major sites. He’s begun to climb out of his slump with a 151 wRC+ over the last week.

Giants offense has a 155 wRC+, 0.0 K-BB% over the last week

Steven Matz has tightened up his mechanics since his initial disaster (though he had just a 4.1 SwStr% vs the Braves in his last outing) and has pitched well in back to back to starts. His competition is upgraded tonight against a hot and disciplined San Francisco offense (0.0 K-BB% over the last week) that could give him problems should he go awry or lapse in concentration again. He can be used in a favorable park at a mid-range price with the potential for something around an average K%, but might not project as someone we’d expect to greatly exceed his price tag on average in this spot. This is not a pitcher we really want to attack, but note that both Belt (134 wRC+) and Panik (132 wRC+) have been well above average vs LHP since last season and exceed a 177 wRC+ over the last week, while Hunter Pence has a 289 wRC+ over that span as well. Buster Posey (132 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) is starting to swing the bat well (116 wRC+ last seven days) and comes at a cheaper price than usual under $4K on both major sites. This is also a game with some weather concerns according to Kevin, so make sure to check back for his late update.

Jon Lester and the Cubs huge favorites in only afternoon game

There’s only one afternoon game taking place today and that sees the Braves traveling to Chicago to face the Cubs who are large -300 favorites with Jon Lester taking the mound. Lester is a top SP option in the all day slate as two of the other top priced SP’s have tough matchups (Felix Hernandez against the Royals and Stephen Strasburg against the Cardinals). The Braves are anemic offensively and you’ll want to avoid rostering any one in their starting lineup with perhaps the exception of Adonis Garcia who enters with a career .370 wOBA against LHP, is cheap, and batting clean up. Rookie Aaron Blair takes the mound for his second ML start – he had an average outing his first time out coming off of three very good AAA starts to open the year. He’s flashed a strikeout per inning upside in the minors but facing the Cubs is not someone we want to target. Kris Bryant gets the day off for the Cubs but anyone in the top four of the Cubs order (Dexter Fowler-Jason Heyward-Ben Zobrist-Anthony Rizzo) with Rizzo and his career .370 wOBA/.228 ISO against RHP being the top option.

Jose Fernandez’s velocity down, walk rate up in his past two starts

In his last two starts, Jose Hernandez has seen a FB velocity dip of 1 MPH and 1.5 MPH from his first two starts this season. In addition to his loss in velocity, Fernandez has averaged a 13.7%BB over his past two games which is 4 points higher than his career mark. While these are not exactly welcome signs, the slate is small and Fernandez still holds immense strikeout upside, making him a contender for the top SP play of the evening. None of the Dodger hitters are particularly solid options tonight, but if you want exposure to Fernandez given the small slate size, Corey Seager (.365 wOBA – .185 ISO – 133 wRC+ career vs RHP) and Adrian Gonzalez (.380 wOBA – .229 ISO – 141 wRC+ career vs RHP) serve as two players who might give Fernandez some trouble this evening.

Kevin has updated the forecast for tonight’s four game slate with just one game that may be potentially impacted by weather. The Chicago @ Baltimore game may see some rain, but does not seem in danger of postponement and that’s probably what we really care about most in the worst pitching matchup of the night pitting Danks against Wilson. Read what Kevin has to say on our Weather Page linked below.

Maeda has allowed just one run through four starts

Kenta Maeda has far exceeded expectations, allowing just a single solo HR through four starts and nearly no-hit the Rockies in Colorado last time out. He’s struck out 15 of his last 49 batters. He throws five different pitches at least 9% of the time, but none more than 30%, confusing hitters the first time through the league with only his curveball running a below average run value. Things obviously won’t remain this rosy for him, but he combines the best season to date with the best matchup tonight as Miami is projected for the lowest run output tonight (3.12). Maeda should be the most popular pitcher tonight and deservedly so against a Marlins team with a -1.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. None of the Miami hitters are candidates for heavy exposure tonight, while the only considerations even on a short slate might be Christian Yelich (129 wRC+, 34.5 Hard% vs RHP since last season) with a 94.92 mph exit velocity this season and Giancarlo Stanton (133 wRC+, .277 ISO, 43.9 Hard% vs RHP) at a 206 wRC+ over the last week.

Wacha has yet to allow a HR this year, does that change tonight in ARI?

We know that Chase Field is a favorable park for HR’s, but should we expect any to be hit tonight? Michael Wacha has yet to allow a HR through 22.1 IP so far this year while owning a 6.5SwSt%. Although the sample size is small, his strikeout rate is down to 15.8% and his LD% is currently up around 32.4%. On a short slate like tonight, Wacha is probably no more than a contrarian play. On the Diamondback side, there are a few bats that are appealing tonight. Jake Lamb (.327 wOBA vs RHP) is batting second and has an affordable DK price tag at $3.3K and David Peralta (.383 wOBA vs RHP) has hit righties exceptionally well in his career, especially at home. Paul Goldschmidt (.383 wOBA vs RHP) should be considered one of the top 1B plays this evening and will certainly be highly owned.

Cardinals have a 136 wRC+, 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP, while LHBs smash Rubby de la Rosa

Jeremy Hazelbaker and Randal Grichuk sit tonight in the revolving St Louis lineup. Rubby de la Rosa has held RHBs to a .271 wOBA since last season, but lefties have torched him for a .402 wOBA and hit 10 HRs just in Arizona against him last year. The Cardinal bats are smoking with a 136 wRC+, 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP this year and a 149 wRC+ over the last week. All seven batters in the lineup with at least 10 PAs over the last week have at least a 132 wRC+ over that span with Yadier Molina pulling up the rear. Carpenter, Moss, and Adams (the lefties) should be popular tonight. Each present as strong values for their price point with Adams even costing just $2K on FanDuel. Holliday (132 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Piscotty (126 wRC+ vs RHP) hit RHP well enough to be included as well. SS Aledmys Diaz is tearing up RHP for a 242 wRC+, .340 ISO in a small sample this year. Molina and Gyorko are the only players in this lineup with an average batted ball distance below 240 feet this year. Diaz also has a 94.16 average exit velocity.

Buchholz hasn't pitched well, but faces 2nd worst offense vs RHP

Clay Buchholz has allowed exactly five runs in under six innings in three of his four starts with just two strikeouts in the other and costs at least $8K on both major sites. The Braves have a 64 wRC+ vs RHP (2nd worst in baseball) though and just hit their fourth HR of the season last night. What’s a DFS player to do? Considering that the other pitcher in his price range (Wacha) has similar estimators (SIERA, xFIP) despite half the ERA and is in a much tougher spot, you probably have to strongly consider Buchholz here. If it helps, he did have a double digit SwStr% in the game where he struck out just two and five of his 27 fly balls have been pop ups (four have been HRs though). Over his last two games though, he’s walked just three of 49 with one HR. There’s a good chance you’re looking at an average pitcher when all is said and done and he’s in a great spot tonight (Braves 27.2 K%, 4.5 BB% over the last seven days). If you feel the need to roster Braves hitters tonight, Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hit last night’s HR and is beginning to come around with a 130 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last week. His batted ball distance has averaged 252.27 feet this year. Buchholz has held LHBs to a .291 wOBA since last season, though they’ve hit him harder (.423 wOBA) in 2016.

Tyler Wilson has a 9.4 K% over 49 major league innings.

When you’re K% (9.4) is a league average SwStr%, you are basically automatically disqualified from any daily fantasy consideration, even on the smallest of slates. Wilson has kept his ERA reasonable (3.31) by allowing just two HRs over his 49 innings though, split between bullpen and rotation (six major league starts). The White Sox have a team 135 wRC+ and 1.8 K-BB% over the last week with Melky Cabrera (108 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) being the hottest batter (219 wRC+, 38.1 Hard%). Todd Frazier (109 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2015) follows with a 190 wRC+ over the last seven days. Adam Eaton (129 wRC+ vs RHP) and Jose Abreu (134 wRC+, .229 ISO) have not been hitting the ball as well, but merit some consideration on a short slate. With two hole hitter and SS Jimmy Rollins showing a 65 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, the problem is there’s just not much to really like a lot on either side of this equation.

Adam Jones dropped to 5th against Danks

A struggling Adam Jones with just a 55 wRC+, 23.8 Hard% over the last week and 86 wRC+ vs LHP since last year is dropped down in the order to 5th tonight against John Danks, who should be the most popular target for DFS lineups. All of his ERA estimators are above five and a half with a 6.23 ERA to go along. He’s been about average vs LHBs (.314 wOBA), but has allowed RHBs a .356 wOBA since last season. Strangely, the Orioles have a couple of reverse platoon split guys in their lineup, including Manny Machado, who at least hits LHP at a better rate than Jones (101 wRC+ since 2015). Machado has just a 42 wRC+ over the last week, but a 39.1 Hard%. Mark Trumbo is likely the top dog here. He has a 95.82 mph exit velocity this season and drills LHP (146 wRC+, .283 ISO, 40.1 Hard%) since last season. Chris Davis brings an average bat (103 wRC+, .180 ISO) against lefties, while the rookie Rickard should also be a part of stacks batting leadoff for a team projected for 4.57 runs. It’s often okay to look further down the lineup for scarce positions on short slates, but J.J. Hardy has just a 33 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Caleb Joseph, tonight’s Catcher, does have a 34.9 Hard% against LHP since 2015 though.

Red Sox have top run projection tonight (4.97), but Chacin has highest SwStr (14.1%)

On a four game slate, there are bound to be some odd lineup combination considerations and this game might offer some of the strangest as a good case can be made for the Boston hitters with the highest projected run line (4.97) tonight, but also for a low priced Jhoulys Chacin with the highest SwStr% (14.1) tonight, especially if you are playing on a site with two pitchers. Chacin has struck out 19 of the 69 batters he’s faced without allowing a HR with at least an 11 SwStr% in each of his three starts. He has allowed a 37.5 Hard% though, so don’t expect the HRs to stay away forever. Remembering that runs aren’t as big a detriment to DFS pitchers if they come with loads of strikeouts, we are presented with an opportunity to utilize Chacin in lineups that aren’t Boston heavy, while using Boston bats in others and potentially win both ways. For the Sox, who are red hot, David Ortiz (165 wRC+, .322 ISO, 43.7 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) has an average 94.81 mph exit velocity and 262.97 average distance on batted balls this season with a 160 wRC+, 45 Hard% over the last week. Travis Shaw (129 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP) has a 183 wRC+ over the last week. Dustin Pedroia (125 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) hit two HRs last night and has a 287 wRC+ over the last week, but Chacin has a .292 career wOBA vs RHBs vs a .335 wOBA vs LHBs. With the top three Boston batters in front of Ortiz being right handed and hot though (160 wRC+ over the last week) you will probably want some exposure there as well.