DFS Alerts
Jose Fernandez has 41.9 K%, but was pulled after 90 pitches in his last start
It’s rare Jose Fernandez takes a back seat to anyone, but he’s the clear number two pitcher tonight, partially due to matchup. Don’t worry about the 5.06 ERA through two starts as he’s carrying a 41.9 K% (15.3 SwStr%) and has stranded just 56.6% of his runners. The fact that he left after five innings and 90 pitches in his last start, despite pitching well is a little more curious. He was allowed to throw 106 pitches in his first start, so we’re not entirely sure what the Marlins have planned in terms of conservation, but a low pitch or innings limit could hamper his fantasy appeal. That’s a luxory we may not have with a weak board below him tonight. The Nationals run the expected cast out there, but only the two lefties in the middle (Harper & Murphy) are above average vs RHP since last season. While you never want to rule Harper (209 wRC+, .366 ISO vs RHP since last season)(94.14 average exit velocity this eason) completely out of GPP consideration, the Nationals carry the night’s 2nd lowest projected run total (3.2 runs) and there are many other pitchers you’d rather pick on tonight. If you can’t afford Syndergaard, Fernandez should be the next best option. This should be the case even if he doesn’t throw 100 pitches, though he’d take a hit in value at current cost.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy
Syndergaard has a 19.9 SwStr% and 83.96 exit velocity against
It didn’t matter what names the Phillies wrote on the lineup card tonight. Noah Syndergaard has had two performances about as dominating as a pitcher can possibly be. He is averaging nearly 98 mph, striking out 21 of 50 batters faced with a 19.9 SwStr%, allowing just 11 non-ground balls with an average 83.96 mph exit velocity (9th lowest among those with at least 20 batted balls). There are no viable reasons why one wouldn’t or shouldn’t own him tonight. The Phillies are projected for just 3.1 runs tonight, easily the lowest on the slate.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Moss bats cleanup as Grichuk sits vs Lackey Monday night
John Lackey is a pretty average pitcher at this point. He’ll strike out about an average number of batters, but don’t expect him to strand over 80% of his batters like he did last year again. As such, he is a bit over-priced taking on his old team in St Louis, where the Cardinals are tattooing the ball (163 wRC+, 14.2 K%, 37.2 Hard%, 18.6 HR/FB at home, 146 wRC+, 17.5 K%, 34.0 Hard%, 17.3 HR/FB vs RHP). They won’t keep up those rates, especially in a home park that’s not exactly power friendly, but it’s a good lineup, making us skeptical of Lackey at current cost tonight. He has been much stronger against RHBs (.269 wOBA) than LHBs (.337 wOBA) since last season, which is perhaps why Grichuk sits in favor of Moss (99 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since last seaon) in the cleanup spot tonight. Matt Carpenter would be the premier option in this lineup vs RHP at the top (155 wRC+, .254 ISO, 41.0 Hard% vs RHP since last seaon) as well as Hazelbaker (190 wRC+, .370 ISO, 30.4 Hard% vs RHP in his rookie season), though his price has gone up and he’s not a proven commodity yet. Holliday (131 wRC+) and Piscotty (122 wRC+) both hit RHP at a well above average rate too, but we’re not too enthusiastic about attacking Lackey too hard from that side of the plate tonight. He’s average, not bad.
Other tagged players: Jeremy Hazelbaker, Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss, Stephen Piscotty, John Lackey Three Miami batters with average exit velocity above 93.8 mph this season
Tanner Roark doesn’t miss enough bats to be useful in a daily fantasy sense (16.3 K% last two calendar years) and has walked 11.8% of batters through two starts, but isn’t incredibly high on our attack list very often because he has excelled in generating weak contact (4.1 Hard-Soft% career). He has allowed a .354 wOBA to LHBs since the start of last season though, making a few Marlins viable. Dee Gordon (107 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) could get on and create some havoc. Christian Yelich (128 wRC+, 35.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) and Justin Bour (128 wRC+, .247 ISO, 34.9 Hard% vs RHP) are threats from the left side, while Giancarlo Stanton plays well against an average RHP as well (127 wRC+, .261 ISO, 44.8 Hard% since last year). Yelich, Stanton, and Bour all have average exit velocities above 93 mph so far this season, with Stanton (93.88) being the lowest of the three. He plus the Marlin lefties make for an interesting stacking opportunity tonight. Martin Prado (93 wRC+ vs RHP since last year) is back in the 2nd spot with Marcell Ozuna dropped to 6th again for the 2nd game in a row.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour, Dee Strange-Gordon, Martin Prado, Marcell Ozuna, Tanner Roark Pacheco bats 2nd as Suarez sits for Reds against Lyles.
Jordan Lyles doesn’t get much better outside of Colorado, walking more batters than he’s struck out in a small sample of just over 20 innings since last season. It’s not a terrible matchup against the Reds, who have struggled against RHP so far (83 wRC+), but do have a bit of LH pop and could present serious problems in a small park if he continues to not be able to find the plate. Eugenio Suarez sits and the light hitting Jordan Pacheco (80.29 mph exit velocity on 11 batted balls this season) will bat 2nd for the Reds. Lyles has allowed a .368 wOBA vs LHBs since last season, good news for Joey Votto (163 wRC+, ,227 ISO, 43.2 Hard% since last season), who should be a top first base play tonight. Jay Bruce (100 wRC+, .234 ISO, 37.9 Hard% vs RHP) should also benefit. It’s unfortunate the Reds don’t have more left-handed firepower with which to take full advantage of this matchup, though they are one of three teams projected for the most runs tonight (4.5) via our Vegas Odds page. .
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Jordan Lyles Toronto and Boston get the week started bright and early
The Blue Jays-Red Sox game today is the only day game on the slate today and will be part of smaller all-day contests on the major sites. It gets started at an unusually early time of 11:05 am ET for Patriots Day with J.A. Happ taking the mound for the Blue Jays and Clay Bucholz the pitcher for the home team. The game has a relatively high over/under of nine runs so it’s one you will want some exposure to if you’re taking part in the all-day slate. Happ isn’t a particularly impressive pitcher with career/2015 wOBA’s of .317/.294 vs LH bats and .330/.307 vs RH bats. You’ll want to attack him with right-handed bats in Fenway. Bucholz is one of the more inconsistent and frustrating SP’s in all of DFS. He’ll flash brilliance in a game or two and follow it up with a long string of duds. His career/2015 wOBA’s are .317/.268 vs LH bats and .303/.319 vs RH bats – he pitched better against lefties last year but that’s probably an anomaly more than anything especially if you factor in the .535 wOBA he’s given up to lefties so far this season (in just 3 2/3 innings of work). Still we shouldn’t be afraid of using the Jays big right handed bats against him and we’re definitely best off avoiding rostering either SP. From the Toronto side of things, Michael Saunders is leading off, and while that might make you have interest in him given the lineup he is leading off for, if you take a look at his career numbers of a .309 wOBA/.158 ISO vs RHP there’s cause for concern in rostering him. Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion are definitely the bats you want to target as all three have wOBA’s of .382 or better against RHP. No one else in the starting lineup tops .320 but if you want to punt a position, Ryan Goins batting seventh is worth a look. For the Red Sox, David Ortiz gets the day off against the southpaw Happ but the top three of the order, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, and Xander Bogaerts are all excellent options with Pedroia’s .369 wOBA vs LHP being the worst of the three. Chris Young batting sixth is a lefty masher (.414 wOBA) and is certainly worth a look and despite being a lefty himself, Travis Shaw has a career .405 wOBA vs LHP and bats cleanup – he’s definitely in play in the middle of that lineup.
As reported by: Boston Red Sox official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Chris Young, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion
Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Welington Castillo, Jean Segura all out of the D'Backs lineup
The Diamondbacks seemingly decided to rest everyone this afternoon, as they’ll be without three of their better hitters against LHP in San Diego. Nick Ahmed, Rickie Weeks, Phil Gosselin and Yasmany Tomas are the top four bats in the lineup – Weeks and Gosselin are at or near minimum price across the industry, while Ahmed and Tomas aren’t much more expensive. This game taking place in Petco does downgrade the Arizona upside, and the 7 total may seem high at this point now that we’ve seen the D’Backs lineup. Ahmed, Gosselin and Tomas are all playable in any format, while Weeks is best left for GPPs.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, David Peralta, Jean Segura, Nick Ahmed, Rickie Weeks, Phil Gosselin
Patrick Corbin is the top arm on the late-slate
Corbin faces off with a very poor Padres lineup that finished 2015 as the 23rd best offense (.294 wOBA) against left-handed pitching last season. They’ve been one of a few teams that you can feel comfortable streaming pitchers against, and Corbin moving from hitter friendly Chase Field to the spacious Petco Park certainly doesn’t hurt his outlook. There is just one left-handed bat in the Padres lineup this evening (Cory Spangenberg in the two-hole), but outside of Wil Myers and Matt Kemp there aren’t any right-handed bats to fear. Corbin owned a 3.37 xFIP vs. RHs last year including a fairly healthy K/9 rate (7.85), and those numbers were accrued as he was working his way back from Tommy John surgery. If you are playing the three-game late slate, Corbin is your best bet at the SP spot against a Padres offense that had the 4th highest K-rate against LHP last season (23.3%).
Plenty of value towards the top of the Athletics lineup
Kris Medlen isn’t an intimidating force to line up across from, and his strong 2013 season seems like a distant memory at this point. He’s struggled to stay healthy since then but has found a home at the back of the Royals rotation, although if he continues to serve up a high number of walks and can’t go deep into games it’ll be a matter of time before he’s replaced. The Royals bullpen is one of the best in baseball which does slightly limit the A’s upside, but the price tags on the 1-6 hitters are almost laughably low in this spot. Billy Burns and Coco Crisp ($2,500 and $2,400 on FanDuel) both offer nice speed upside at the top of the lineup, especially considering Salvador Perez hasn’t been very good at neutralizing runners (.305 CS% last season). Josh Reddick is the most expensive of the A’s starters at $3,100 on FanDuel, and his upside against RHP makes him a solid GPP target, although there are safer options in that range (Piscotty and Grichuk for example). Danny Valencia slots into the clean-up spot and although we prefer to target him against LHP, he’s still in a favorable spot against Medlen considering Valencia’s .374 wOBA/.271 ISO against RHP last year. Stephen Vogt and Chris Coghlan are both strong dollar per point targets. Evan Gattis is the preferred play at catcher over Vogt given that Gattis is not only cheaper but is also facing a HR prone righty. Coghlan is priced at the bare minimum on FanDuel, and while he’ll get pulled if KC goes to a lefty, it’s tough to argue with his .355 wOBA/.212 ISO against RHs last year.
Other tagged players: Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Danny Valencia, Stephen Vogt, Chris Coghlan Anibal Sanchez allowed 29 HRs last season, making the Houston power bats appealing GPP plays
Sanchez really struggled to keep the ball in the yard last season, serving up 29 total bombs, including a very poor 2.13 HR/9 allowed to RHs. Carlos Correa isn’t in the lineup to take advantage of that, but we can confidently target the like of George Springer, Tyler White and Evan Gattis from the right side, while Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena both offer considerable pop from the left side. Jose Altuve is an option here also given Sanchez’s tendency to struggle keeping runners off base, but his price tag on some outlets ($4,700 on FanDuel) make him a tough sell outside of Houston stacks. Target the Astros confidently this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Evan Gattis, Colby Rasmus, Carlos Correa Matt Joyce hitting clean-up for Pittsburgh, Starling Marte out of the lineup
Joyce will slot into the clean-up spot this afternoon against RH Zach Davies, and given his incredibly low price tag on both major sites, he’s a strong punt play in any format. He’ll replace Starling Marte in the lineup and while Joyce is still at a risk to be removed if Milwaukee goes to a lefty, Marte’s presence on the bench should decrease that risk. His numbers against RH pitching over the past three seasons haven’t been eye-popping, but hitting behind the Pirates top three should provide him with some run producing opportunities. Davies is unproven at this level; while he didn’t give up many HRs in the minors, he also didn’t miss many bats and his walk rate throughout the minors was poor. Pittsburgh is a perfectly suitable team to stack in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte Chris Heisey leading off for the Nationals; Zimmerman, M. Taylor, Ramos, Espinosa not in the lineup
Chris Heisey, who is priced at or near the minimum on all DFS outlets, will take over the leadoff spot with Michael Taylor out of the lineup. Taylor joins Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos and Danny Espinosa on the bench, with Clint Robinson, Stephen Drew and Jose Lobaton getting the chance to start. Despite the fact that it’s best to pick on Charlie Morton with lefties, Heisey is a viable punt play in any format given his role this afternoon. Hitting in front of Rendon and Harper certainly helps elevate his ceiling. Harper is the top overall play at the OF position which is going to be the case plenty of times this year when he’s facing an average-to-below-average righty. Morton’s 37.3 hard% against LH bats plays perfectly into Harper’s hands – the 23-year old finished 2015 with a .354 ISO and 39.7 hard%. Daniel Murphy is another elite option in any format, while Clint Robinson is a viable target in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Chris Heisey, Clint Robinson, Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos David Ortiz worth every penny against Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez struggled mightily with left-handed bats last year, especially those with power potential. In a rare display of ineptitude, Sanchez finished 2015 with more walks than strikeouts when facing lefties (4.4 K/9, 5.8 BB/9), something we almost never see from pitchers who are able to hang around in their team’s rotation. His 6.76 FIP and 1.80 HR/9 vs. LHs plays very well into Ortiz’s favor; the Large Father finished 2015 with truly elite numbers against RHs (.413 wOBA, .320 ISO, 29 HRs). Sanchez’s inability to keep the ball in the yard (9 HRs allowed to LHs last year in just 45.0 IP) will very likely lead to his downfall if he’s not able to keep Ortiz off balance. Travis Shaw and Jackie Bradley Jr. are also very nice GPP targets against Sanchez and his dreadful splits vs. LH bats.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Jackie Bradley, Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays offense in a mouthwatering spot against knuckleballer Steven Wright
We usually prefer to pay top dollar for the Jays bats when they’re in a favorable spot in Rogers Centre, but a match-up with Steven Wright in Fenway is more than enough to justify paying the hefty price tag for the likes of Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion. The lineup has been shuffled some with Michael Saunders taking the reins as the leadoff man, while Kevin Pillar will slot down to the #8 spot. It’s genuinely hard to argue with rostering any of the Toronto bats; Wright struggled against hitters from both sides of the plate last season, posting a 5.67 FIP vs. RHs compared to a 4.31 FIP against lefties. His strikeout numbers were stronger against LH bats, which plays perfectly into the hands of the 2-3-4 hitters. All three of them are viable in any format, as are Michael Saunders and Troy Tulowitzki. Toronto boasts the highest team total on today’s slate (4.8 projected runs).
Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar, Troy Tulowitzki Miami/Atlanta offenses both with nice upside against Chacin, Cosart
Much like last night, the Miami/Atlanta game is one that we’ll want some exposure to, especially since it’s an opportunity to save some cap on a handful of value plays in the middle of the lineup. The Marlins offense is a bit pricier, but Justin Bour ($2,500 on FanDuel) still remains priced towards the minimum, and his power upside against RHP makes him a worthwhile GPP target. He’s the only strong cap-saving play on the Miami side, but Giancarlo Stanton (.375 wOBA, .291 ISO last season), Dee Gordon (42 SBs vs. RHs last year) and Christian Yelich (.354 wOBA vs. RHs) are all viable targets against Chacin. On the Atlanta side, the 2-4-5-6 hitters are all priced no higher than $2,400 on FanDuel, and Cosart isn’t a pitcher we need to avoid with bats. His platoon splits have been fairly similar over the past dating back to 2014, so both right and left-handers are squarely in play. Freddie Freeman has gotten off to a dismal start to 2016, but it won’t be long before he breaks out and that may very well start this afternoon. On the other hand, Nick Markakis has been red-hot lately, and already has 8 2Bs early in the season. He hit RHs well last season (.347 wOBA) and is a nice mid-range play out of the leadoff spot this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Dee Strange-Gordon, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis