DFS Alerts

Top Prospect With a Wild Streak Could Be One to Stack Against

If all you’re concerned about is the probability of “smashing” the slate, then the Yankees are your best bet, as the only team that projects above a 10 Smash% in PlateIQ simulations. Kansas City is an overwhelming Value stack on DK (19.3%) currently, while San Francisco, Texas and Detroit are showing stacking value on FanDuel. Getting into Leverage projections, which means we’re looking for the lowest ownership with the best probability of going off, we again find San Francisco along with Atlanta as solid options on FanDuel, while Atlanta (again) and Houston project strong leverage possibilities on DK.

The Giants are in Cleveland tonight, against Zach Plesac. It’s a very strikeout prone, but productive projected lineup against a pitcher whom batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA within six points of .320 against since last year. In fact, not a single batter expected to be in tonight’s lineup drops below a 97 wRC+ or .186 ISO against RHP since last year. Led by Brandon Belt (170 wRC+, .348 ISO vs RHP since 2021) as the only Giant above $3K on FanDuel, an affordable San Francisco stack could certainly take down a GPP tonight.

Atlanta faces a top prospect making his debut in pitcher friendly environment in San Diego. Mackenzie Gore struck out seven of 16 in his first start at AAA this season, but lost some of his luster last season (6.3 K-BB% in six AAA starts). There is some polarization around him as a prospect and ZIPs projections currently see him as a pitcher with a four and a half ERA this season. This is a pitcher Atlanta could have their way with if he carries his wild streak with him to the majors tonight. The Braves have, inexplicably, had their issues with LHP the last few years, despite running with a predominantly RH lineup most nights. The exceptions to that have been Ozzie Albies (146 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP since LY) and Travis d’Arnaud (149 wRC+, .167 ISO). Dansby Swanson (90 wRC+ .219 ISO) and Austin Riley (99 wRC+, .152 ISO) could do some damage as well.

Projections Suggest Top Bats Out West, Value in Kansas City Tonight

Score one for the DraftKings pricing algorithm, which made Coors bats very affordable in a game that featured just seven runs scored yesterday. Prices have only increased slightly and are much more justifiable in a matchup of solid ground ball pitchers (Stroman vs Marquez) tonight. In fact, our simulations project either team to “Smash” less than five percent of the team, which is actually where stack ownership percentages are as well on either site. Perhaps this is the day to actually roster Coors bats if they’re going to be so low-owned, but lineups the PlateIQ projections really like the two teams from LA tonight. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout have top three overall projections on either site, which generally makes sense no matter who they’re facing, which happens to be the Texas bullpen in our first bullpen game of the year tonight. Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the only one who breaks up those teammates. LHBs have a .357 wOBA against Vladimir Gutierrez in his career. While the Angels are on the road in Texas, which could play more hitter friendly again if the roof is open, the Dodgers are at home, in a park that has played more hitter friendly in recent years. Mookie Betts (128 wRC+, .215 ISO), Trea Turner (120 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Max Muncy (131 wRC+, .269 ISO) join Freeman as top 10 overall projected bats.

Should you be paying up for high end pitching and are seeking more value bats, PlateIQ projections may direct you to towards the game in Kansas City. Victor Reyes (63 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP since LY) is expected to lead off again against Brad Keller (LHBs .350 wOBA, .370 xwOBA since 2021) and costs $2.5K or less. He’s off to a strong start with an overall 142 wRC+ this year and is currently a top two projected value on either site. Bobby Witt Jr. joins him on DraftKings despite just a 19 wRC+ so far this year. A $2.4K price tag is still simply too low. Hunter Dozier (79 wRC+, .131 ISO) is also a top five projected value on DK and Carlos Santana (95 wRC+, .091 ISO) on FD. While their numbers are not strong against LHP, RHBs do have a .346 wOBA, .375 xwOBA against the home run prone Tarik Skubal since last year. Of course, the big expensive bat, Sal Perez, has mashed LHP (163 wRC+, .349 ISO) since the start of last season. One bit of concern might be that the winds are blowing in from LF in KC tonight, which could suppress both power and run scoring a bit more than usual according to Weather Edge.

Lefty Mashing Offense Facing HR Prone Lefty

Six teams either reach or exceed a five run total on Friday night and only one of them is playing at Coors, which makes some sense in a solid pitching matchup. In fact, the Rockies are only fourth on the board at 5.15 implied runs. The Dodgers, Blue Jays and Yankees all exceed that mark, but the Houston Astros sit merely in the middle of the board at 4.35. Marco Gonzales allowed three homers to the Twins in his first start, walking two and striking out just a single batter with a 4.9 SwStr%. He has a 32.6 GB%, 15.5 HR/FB and has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE since last season with just an 18.2 K%. His best estimator, a 4.96 SIERA, is nearly a run above his 4.03 ERA over this span. Gonzales has also had his struggles with this Houston team that had a 117 wRC+ vs LHP last year. In 156 career PAs, current Astros have a career .368 xwOBA against him. You won’t find many Astros with high projected ownership rates today, despite the .358 wOBA RHBs have against Gonzales since last season. He’s been much better against LHBs (.250), but Statcast jumps that number over 100 points (.363 xwOBA). Seattle is a pitcher’s park, but added a humidor recently, which could boost offense. Two of the three projected LH Houston bats tonight (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker) exceed a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP since last season. Among RHBs, Yuli Gurriel (151 wRC+, .205 ISO) is the only one who can say the same, though Jose Altuve (118 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Alex Bregman (123 wRC+, .118 ISO) have been proficient as well. The latter is off to a hot start with a 180 wRC+ overall this year.

Favorable Conditions Could Suppress This Pitcher's HR Issues

The middle of the board on an 11 game slate features some viable, if not extremely exciting arms. German Marquez allowed the Dodgers just a single run, striking out five of 24 at Coors in his first start of the season. A 15.0 K-BB%, 51.8 GB% and 5.8% Barrels/BBE since the start of last year have produced estimators that are all at least one quarter of a run below his 4.28 ERA over that span. He’s cheap enough to be usable with four in the projected Cubs lineup above a 28 K% vs RHP since 2021. Ownership projections are below five percent currently.

A knee issue limited Jordan Montgomery to just 58 pitches and 17 batters in his first start, but he’s been proclaimed fit to go in Baltimore. Possibly one of the more under-rated pitchers in the game, Montgomery has produced a 16.8 K-BB% since last year with a somewhat average contact profile, making him an above average pitcher with a 3.92 ERA that’s within a quarter run of all estimators. While the Orioles sent the left field wall back and up partially due to these Yankees, Montgomery should benefit greatly from this as well. Workload could be an issue here though, as he does cost more than $8K.

Tarik Skubal was a strikeout monster in the minors, but struggled both in that area and with home runs upon reaching the majors. He did seem to figure out around mid-season last year, but also seemed to taper off again near the end, which is understandable for a young pitcher. He struggled through a tough assignment first time out this year, striking out just three of 20 White Sox with a 31.3 GB% and two barrels allowed, though neither left he park. Skubal has estimators ranging from a 3.92 SIERA to a 5.51 xERA since the start of last season. The interesting thing here though, is that Kansas City is already a power suppressing park and while Skubal will be facing a predominantly RH lineup, the wind is blowing in from LF today and should suppress RH power even more. This could be a major boost for Skubal. The projected Kansas City lineup includes three players above a 27 K% vs LHP since last season.

You’re Hail Mary secondary lottery tickets on DK include the following. Kyle Wright ($6.7K) impressively struck out six of 21 Reds with a 15.8 SwStr% first time out without allowing a barrel (14 batted balls). Last year, six of the 20 batted balls against him were barrels. He gets a park upgrade in San Diego, though the Padres smashed Charlie Morton last night. Reid Detmers is the top prospect for the Angels according to Fangraphs (50 Future Value), but as more of a plug and play major league ready back end starter than a higher upside type. He was impressive in 54 AA innings last year (43.1 K%), but has just a 7.7 K-BB% over 24.2 major league innings with 10 barrels allowed (12.5%). He costs $6.3K in Texas, another team that blew up on a great pitcher last night. Zach Plesac’s ($6.5K) posted one season of a 27.7 K%, but no others above 18.5%. Since the start of last season, all estimators are above his 4.49 ERA, though an 11.3 SwStr% certainly suggests something better than the 16.7 K% he’s posted over that time. The Giants are certainly not an easy matchup, but the projected lineup does include six batters with at least a 24.9 K% vs RHP since last season.

The Breakout Arm Projected For Low Ownership on Friday

Friday night’s slate features 11 games and three pitchers reaching the $10K mark, though none on both sites. Dylan Cease ($10.2K DK) is the most expensive arm on the board with a $500 price differential. He’s currently projected for the third highest point total on either site (Plate IQ), but also much lower ownership than the two pitchers above him. After striking out eight of 20 Tigers (13.9 SwStr%) in his first start, Cease has now published a 32.1 K% since the start of 2021, which helps diminish a 9.8 BB% and 9.9% Barrels/BBE. A 3.85 ERA is above, but within half a run of all his estimators. It’s certainly not an easy matchup, hosting the Rays, but five batters in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last season. If ownership projections are accurate and don’t change much, Cease is a great contrarian play tonight.

FanDuel’s most expensive arm is Carlos Rodon ($10.1K) with just a $300 differential. He gets both the top overall point projection and the highest ownership on in LineupHQ currently. Rodon struck out 12 of 20 Marlins in his San Francisco debut with a 23.6 SwStr%. He also averaged over 97 mph on his fastball. We can, at least temporarily, put to bed any concerns about his shoulder from last season. A 3.08 xFIP is his worst estimator since the start of last season by nearly a quarter of a run. He’ll face a familiar foe in Cleveland tonight. The Guardians have a 177 wRC+ over the last week that’s highest in the majors, though that’s mostly due to a single outburst. They did have a 99 wRC+ vs LHP last year though and only have three players in the projected lineup exceeding a 20 K% vs LHP since last year. While not advocating entirely abandoning Rodon, as he may just be the top arm on the board, there may be enough to consider coming in under-weight on him in GPPs.

Freddy Peralta costs exactly $10K on DK and just $100 less on FD. Naturally, he is the number two pitcher in our projections in terms of point total and ownership. Peralta struck out six of 18 Cubs in his first outing, but also walked four. He did experience control issues at times last year, but walked two or fewer in each of his last 11 starts last year. Peralta does have a 10% walk rate since the start of last season, but also a 33.6 K% and 86.6 mph EV, allowing just 6.0% Barrels/BBE. Estimators range from a 2.72 xERA to a 3.67 xFIP over this span. Those 18 batters cost him 88 pitches in Chicago, so he should be ready for a full workload here. The Cardinals had just a 93 wRC+ vs RHP last year with a mix of high, low and average strikeout rates in projected lineup. You should probably have some Freddy in your GPP builds and he’s likely fine for cash games too.

The three remaining pitchers to reach the $9K price point on either site (again, none on both) are a bit mind-boggling. Brad Keller struck out five of 19 Guardians with a 13 SwStr%., but has never struck out 20% in a season. He didn’t allow a barrel in that first start either, after generating one on 10.6% of contact last year. Keller does keep half his contact on the ground (51 career GB%), though his best estimator since the start of 2021 is a still just a 4.48 xFIP. A $9.4K tag on FD ($7K DK) is quite the stretch. Marco Gonzales allowed three homers to the Twins in his first start, striking out just a single batter and has a 32.6 GB%, 15.5 HR/FB and has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE since last season with just an 18.2 K%. His best estimator, a 4.96 SIERA, is nearly a run above his 4.03 ERA over this span. He costs $9.3K on DK against Houston (117 wRC+ vs LHP LY). Marcus Stroman could effectively keep the ball on the ground at Coors, but had a career high 21.6 K% last year. That’s not enough for a $9K (DK) price tag at Coors. If you’re paying up for pitchers tonight, stick to the very top of the board.

Javier Báez (thumb) scratched Thursday

Javier Báez (thumb) scratched Thursday

The start of Blue Jays-Yankees will be delayed due to rain Thursday

Game update: The start of Blue Jays-Yankees will be delayed due to rain Thursday

Dee Strange-Gordon scratched Thursday

Dee Strange-Gordon scratched Thursday

One Spot That May Be Worth Attacking Quality Pitchers

We already know that Coors is a near impossible fade, given DraftKings pricing tonight, but GPPs aren’t won by having the same lineup as everyone else. In fact, our Stacks tool in LineupHQ currently projects any Coors stacks as having massively negative leverage as both teams currently project for more than 15% ownership stack-wise. The first point of interest is that neither of those teams tops the Smash% standings in simulations tonight. That honor currently belongs to the Dodgers, though they also have a negative Leverage number currently (although, that could change). Looking at some of the best leverage projections means we’d have to attack some top pitchers tonight. The Reds currently have one of the top Value projections and the top Leverage number, but that means a team with the worst wRC+ on the board for the season would have to pound Walker Buehler and the Dodger bullpen. That may be too unlikely to happen. Another option is both teams in San Diego. You’re dealing with two quality pitchers (Morton, Musgrove) in a negative run environment, but two capable offenses. That’s only slightly more interesting. The Rangers have a strong Leverage number, but weak Smash% and Value% projections. There’s a chance Shohei Ohtani could start walking batters again.

Yankee Stadium may have the most interesting numbers though. Luis Severino is facing Kevin Gausman and both pitchers gave their fans plenty to be enthusiastic about in their first starts. However, this is probably the most hitter friendly park on the slate outside Coors with some favorable weather and winds blowing out to RF. Gausman has a wOBA below .270 against batters from either side of the plate since last year, but Statcast pushes that up by 20-30 points (RHBs .287 xwOBA, LHBs .297). That’s still well below the league average, but this lineup is loaded with mashers. Anthony Rizzo (107 wRC+), Aaron Judge (141 wRC+), Giancarlo Stanton (134 wRC+) and Joey Gallo (127 wRC+) all exceed a .210 ISO vs RHP since 2021. The biggest problem here is that this is going to be an expensive stack on DK (less so on FD), though cheaper pitcher pricing will help you get there.

The other side may be more interesting. Much of the concern the Yankees may have had for Severino, making just his fourth start since 2018, evaporated when his fastball averaged 98 mph over three innings. He struck out five of the 14 Red Sox he faced with five of nine batted balls on the ground. However, two of the remaining four batted balls were barrels and he generated just a 7.7 SwStr%. He also threw just 65 pitches. That means we’re likely to see a lot of bullpen here. Though with the Yankees, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Yet, we’re unlikely to see their highest leverage relievers in the middle of the game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (175 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP since last season) homered three times on a day when he has to get stitches in his finger yesterday. George Springer (141 wRC+, .300 ISO) really has been worth the money when on the field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (108 wRC+, .190 ISO) is much cheaper and expected to hit cleanup with Teoscar Hernandez projected out.

This Cheap Stack Could Be Your Answer on FanDuel

While DK pricing makes Coors the easy answer to most questions tonight, let’s talk a little bit about what to do on FanDuel, where a Pittsburgh stack may be a bit interesting. To be clear, this is not a very good offense, but FD pitcher pricing is expensive tonight and only Ke’Bryan Hayes reaches the $3K price point among Pittsburgh bats and the Pirates actually have the fourth highest implied run line on the slate (4.7). Joan Adon has struck out 12 of the 46 major league batters he’s faced through two starts, though with just an 8.9 SwStr%. Stuff isn’t the problem, as he’s had some impressive SwStr rates in the minors and impressive movement on his pitches at times. The young man also seemingly doesn’t know where it’s going. He’s walked seven at the major league level and had some fairly high walk rates throughout the minors. As far as prospect ranking, Adon currently sits at 22nd in the Washington organization with a 40 FV grade (Fangraphs). Pirate bats are five of the top seven values or point per dollar projections on FanDuel tonight. Starting with Daniel Vogelbach (112 wRC+, .163 ISO), projected to bat leadoff, no other batters is projected for more than five points per $1K of salary on the slate. Vogelbach is at 5.41 currently. Ben Gamel (115 wRC+, .166 ISO), Yoshi Tsutsugo (88 wRC+, .153 ISO) and Bryan Reynolds (139 wRC+, .232 ISO) are also top projected values on FD tonight.

Extremely Clear Top Stack on DraftKIngs, Though FanDuel Makes it Tougher

This is a Coors slate. There is simply no way around it. Despite the very marginal offenses occupying that park tonight, they’ll be facing two marginal pitchers on a slate with hardly any other positive run environments (on either site). Factor in that the universal humidor this season may also bring most other parks closer to neutral this year, while not affected Coors at all because they’ve had the humidor in place for years. Then, you have Shohei Ohtani and Joe Musgrove costing less than $8K on DraftKings, which makes fitting Coors bats even easier. The Dodgers are the only team outside Coors within a quarter of a run of a five run team total. There is currently more than half an implied run separating the top three teams from the rest of the board. Dodger bats are currently expected to be more popular on FanDuel, where pitcher prices are much higher, but no team comes close to being as popular as the Rockies are projected to be against Justin Steele tonight on DraftKings.

Steele struck out just 19.8% of batters (10.4 BB%) through nine starts last year, so it opened some eyes when he struck out five of 18 Brewers in his first start with a single walk and 58.5 GB%. Half his contact was on the ground last year too (50.3%), but only twice in his nine starts did he strike out more than a quarter of the batters he faced. Unfortunately, he had just a 5.2 SwStr% against the Brewers, so we probably shouldn’t be expecting much more than a ground ball machine yet. Though that’s not necessarily a terrible thing at Coors. However, RHBs have a .345 wOBA against Steele since last season and Connor Joe (134 wRC+, .220 ISO vs LHP since 2021) costs just $3.5K or less out of the leadoff spot. No bat costing more than $3K on DraftKings has a higher point per dollar value projection (PlateIQ). In fact, C.J. Cron (160 wRC+, .297 ISO) and Kris Bryant (136 wRC+, .240 ISO) are the only bats on either site to reach the $4K price point and neither costs more than $4.5K.

Cubs bats cost significantly more for some reason, but Clint Frazier (81 wRC+, .081 ISO) is projected to hit leadoff tonight against Kyle Freeland (RHBs .349 wOBA since 2021) and costs less than $3K on either site. He projects as tonight’s top value play on DraftKings by a very wide margin. FanDuel makes it a bit harder where Frazier is not even a top five projected value and the only bat in this game in the top 10, but DraftKings has made Coors an impossible fade in cash games and even a very difficult one in GPPs tonight.

Just One Batter Below 23.5 K% vs RHP in This Lineup

Pitching is cheap enough on DraftKings where players probably don’t have to drop down to the bottom of the board for their secondary arms tonight, but there are still a few lower priced arms worth mentioning. Zack Greinke’s velocity was actually up a tick in his return to the Royals, though he still struck out only one Guardian with a 4.8 SwStr%. The control (5.1 BB%) and contact management (6.4% Barrels/BBE) have remained excellent since the start of last year, but with just a 16.8 K%, the ERA and estimators have jumped above four. All of that said, he might be too cheap against the Tigers in Kansas City, a power suppressing park. Greinke costs just $6.8K.

Dane Dunning faced more batters in his first start of the season (23) than he did in all, but four starts last year. He posted a league average 22.3 K% last year with a 53.9 GB%. Perhaps that’s persuaded the Rangers to take the reins off or at least loosen them a bit this year. While he struck out just four of 23 batters with two walks and a home run, that’s a pretty successful start against the Blue Jays. The Angels should be one of the better offenses in the league if all of their star stay healthy, but they haven’t started off all that strongly (87 wRC+) and feature just one batter below a 23.5 K% vs RHP since last season in their lineup. Dunning costs just $6.4K on DK.

J.T. Brubaker is only available on FanDuel, but makes for a daring play at $6.3K for those who want to load up on Coors bats. He walked three of the 17 Cardinals he faced in his first start, allowing a home run as well. The latter was a major problem for him last year, but not the former (7.1 BB%). St Louis had just a 25% chase rate in that game. He gets a much easier matchup today, facing a lineup full of young hitters, though don’t expect Soto to be chasing either. Brubaker does have a career 15.9 K-BB%, which suggests there’s still some upside here. The Nats have just a 70 wRC+ and team 20 K-BB% this season.

Large Price Differentials Make For Great Pitching Value on DK

The FanDuel slate starts a half hour earlier tonight and includes two more games than DraftKings for a total eight. Fanduel also offers three pitchers exceeding $10K tonight, all also available much cheaper on DraftKings. Several more pitchers reach the $9K mark on either site, but some of them are just silly. The most expensive pitcher on the slate is Shohei Ohtani ($10.8K), who started the season by striking out nine of 19 Astros with a 15 SwStr%. He walked just one. If Ohtani isn’t walking batters, he’s been great with a 3.51 SIERA being his worst estimator since the start of last season. While the Texas lineup did make major additions this off-season, they still offer an easier matchup than Houston. Ohtani is a tremendous value on DK for less than $8K. In fact, he has the second highest overall point total projection tonight (PlateIQ) and is currently the top point per dollar value on DK.

Walker Buehler ($10.5K) is the top projected pitcher overall and the most expensive on DK ($9.7K). He struck out five of 22 at Coors with two walks and a 53.5 GB% first time out. Buehler’s strikeout rate (26%) and K-BB% (19.6) declined for the second straight year last year, while his 2.47 ERA was well below estimators in the mid-threes due to a .247 BABIP and 80.9 LOB%. That he has a career .261 BABIP now means that he may have some talent at keeping it suppressed, though he also plays in front of an effective defense. Considering that he’s never been near the top of the SwStr% board either, we should probably expect him to remain more above average than elite in that category too. Buehler does pitch deep into games though and that may be where the real value lies here. He recorded seventh inning outs in more than half his starts last year. He should be a fine choice at home against a Cincinnati team that has the lowest wRC+ on the board (66) for the 2022 season so far.

Joe Musgrove ($10.3K) has been great since the trade to San Diego with a 20.4 K-BB% and estimators that are above his 3.17 ERA, but all below four. He struck out eight of 22 Diamondbacks (13.5 SwStr%) with just a single walk his first time out. The Braves are the toughest matchup of the three here, but Musgrove costs just $7.6K on DK, projecting as the second best value on the board. Charlie Morton is the only other pitcher to reach $9K on both sites. He excelled in his return to Atlanta last season (28.6 K%, 4.9% Barrels/BBE) with a 3.53 SIERA being his worst estimator, but his post-season ended almost immediately with a broken leg. He struck out five of 19 Reds with an 85.1 mph EV and no barrels allowed in his first start of the year, but had just a 7.7 SwStr% with four ground balls. His velocity was also down about a mile per hour from last year. San Diego is a park upgrade, but there are several pitchers projected ahead of him tonight, while he’s expected to be marginally popular.

Kevin Gausman struck out five of the 22 Rangers he faced with no walks in his first start for the Blue Jays, but the real story was a 20 SwStr% without a single barrel allowed. Gausman has had estimators in the mid to low threes in each of the last two years now and while he did allow three runs in five innings, he gave his new team no reason to expect something less. Gausman projects as a top five pitcher on either site, despite a tough matchup at Yankee Stadium. Kyle Gibson struck out 10 A’s to start the season, which has spiked his price tag to $9.8K in Miami. He’s only available on FD tonight. He’s opposed by Sandy Alcantara, who walked five of the 21 Giants he faced on opening day with just a 4.8 SwStr%. The Marlins are hoping to see him continue his breakout from last season (18.0 K-BB%, 53.3 GB%). Since last year, Alcantara has allowed just a .270 xwOBA at home, which is best on the board today. He also had just 6% walk and barrel rates last year. One poor start against a great team is nothing to worry about yet. Somehow, Reiver Sanmartin costs more than Gausman, Ohtani and Musgrove on DraftKings tonight.

Alex Kirilloff (wrist) scratched Wednesday, to be placed on 10-day IL

Alex Kirilloff (wrist) scratched Wednesday, to be placed on 10-day IL

Javier Baez (thumb) scratched Wednesday

Javier Baez (thumb) scratched Wednesday