DFS Alerts

Three HRs in 13 PAs Against Tonight's Pitcher

Whether he’s stealing signs, as the Dodgers accused him of, or not, Fernando Tatis Jr. is heating up with ALL the Home Runs in the weekend series at Los Angeles, most importantly proving his health. Merrill Kelly doesn’t seem like someone he has to steal signs against because he’s homered three times in 13 PAs against (97.8 mph EV). Only three other batters on the slate have even two HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight (Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Scott Schebler). If you don’t trust BvP, there are plenty of other reasons to load up on San Diego bats too tonight. We can start with batters from either side of the plate being within four points of a .320 wOBA vs Kelly since 2019 and the fact that Statcast boost LHBs up to a .364 xwOBA (RHBs .329) based on the quality of their contact. Through four starts, he has struck out just 13 of 95 with an 8.6 SwStr%. Four of his eight Barrels (10.5%) have left the yard with his ground ball rate (38.7%) way down. Despite being projected to bat sixth, Jake Cronenworth (138 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP career) may be the best value in the lineup and a key piece in keeping stacks affordable. He costs $3.5K or less on either site. Luis Campusano is the only player projected who is below a .178 ISO vs RHP since 2019. The Padres are among three teams just under five implied runs tonight, below the Yankees and White Sox.

Lowered Velocity, But Tremendous Upside Matchup

Some of the highest upside spots on the board belong to some of the highest priced pitchers tonight (Giolito, Buehler, Javier), which may differentiate lineups enough that players don’t even think about paying down tonight, but if you need two arms (DraftKings) or are looking for some upside in a more marginally priced hurler…it becomes a difficult endeavor, even on a 13 game slate. Additional high upside spots belong to Aaron Sanchez (vs Rockies), Adrian Houser (vs Marlins), Daniel Castano (at Brewers), Franke Montas (at Rays) and Jose Quintana (at Rangers). The first three are all below a 20 K% this year. In fact, Houser and Castano combined reach exactly 20% in Milwaukee (not average, but sum). These are simply arms you may not be able to roster tonight, especially at Houser’s $8K cost on DraftKings. Sanchez is an interesting option in a great spot. Three of the first four batters in the projected Colorado lineup are above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019. He’s been succeeding despite massively reduced velocity due to an abundance of weak ground balls: 3.4% Barrels/BBE, 88.2 mph EV and 59.3 GB%.

Montas is a volatile pitcher facing a volatile lineup in a negative run environment. He has a 23.3 K% and 12.3 SwStr%. However, he’s now allowed 10 Barrels (16.7%) with five of them leaving the yard. His splitter has a 60% whiff rate, but he’s only throwing it 15% of the time. The Rays offer strikeouts (seven in projected lineup 23% or higher vs RHP since 2019), but three of the first four also are above a .350 wOBA and .240 ISO vs RHP over the same span. Quintana has struck out 17 of the 54 batters he’s faced this year (12 SwStr%), but also walked 11. All the walks and strikeouts, along with a 50% ground ball rates are new elements to his game at this late stage of his career. It’s small sample stuff that he likely won’t sustain, but there’s a chance a Texas lineup that projects five bats above a 27 K% vs LHP since 2019 can help him out a bit longer.

Sanchez is within $300 of $7K, Quintana is below that mark and Montas is just less than $7.5K on either site. One other high risk pitcher to look at might be Ian Anderson. Nobody expected him to maintain his ridiculous 2020 numbers. The strikeout rate is down (24.5%, 11.3 SwStr%) and the walk rate is up (11.7%). He’s still generating ground balls (52.6%), but he’s already allowed seven Barrels (11.7%) after just one last year. A recent Fangraphs article highlighted an altered release point. The projected lineup for the Cubs includes five batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019, but they also have a team 118 wRC+ over the last week, sixth best in the majors.

Several Top Arms In High Upside Spots

Max Scherzer, Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler are the only pitchers who reach $10K on either site with Scherzer the only one to exceed that price tag on both. We’ll also add Cristian Javier, as he’s the only other $9K+ pitcher on either side. These are your top arms on the slate tonight and the good news is that it may be close enough between the four of them to erase ownership concerns. Scherzer has struck out at least nine in three of his four starts and has allowed just a single run over his last three. His 15.7 SwStr% is in line with just about every previous year in Washington. If there’s some concern in his profile, it’s a mile and a half per hour drop in his velocity and a ridiculous 14.8 GB%. He’s generated just two more ground balls (eight) than Barrels, though no Barrels in either of his last two starts. There’s quite a bit of uncertainty in his matchup with the Blue Jays tonight and that mostly comes from the park. It’s also one of the lowest upside matchups on the board. The Blue Jays don’t strike out much and are projected to get George Springer back tonight. On the plus side, only three batters in the projected lineup are above a 100 wRC+ this year and it’s a predominantly RH lineup. Scherzer has an 80 point wOBA split since 2019 (.241 vs RHBs).

The last time Giolito pitched, it was a weekday game in Boston that started before noon eastern time. Eight of the 13 batters he faced scored. There were two HRs, two walks and no strikeouts. Let’s go ahead and throw that one out. However, an additional problem may present itself in the form of a cut on his finger that pushed his this start back a couple of days. Assuming it’s not an issue, he’d struck out 26 of 68 with a 16.2 SwStr% before his trip to Boston. Even with his last outing, his non-ERA numbers are still excellent this season (3.21 SIERA, 2.91 xERA). He’s in one of the higher upside spots tonight. Six batters in the projected Detroit lineup exceed a 22.5 K% vs RHP since 2019. Buehler is pitching at reduced velocity (down 1.3 mph from last year) and throwing his four seam fastball more than ever (57.8%). He’s been fortunate that just three of his nine Barrels (12.3%) have left the yard. The four-seamer has a .249 wOBA, despite a .354 xwOBA. The 89.9 LOB% won’t sustain for long. Folding in the contact profile drags his xERA up to 4.55. He is coming off his strongest effort, against the Padres, last time out. Just two of eight projected Reds are below a 23.5 K% vs RHP since 2019. He may also be pitching in the most negative run environment on the board once you add in potential weather effects.

Javier may be the most confusing pitcher of this group. Enormous minor league strikeout rates, but just an 8.7 SwStr% backing his 25.4 K% last year. Then he struck out 11 of his first 35 with a 9.3 SwStr% to start this year. It didn’t look like he could keep this up, but he struck out nine of 20 Angels with a 19.4 SwStr% last time out. He still has just a 26.7 GB%, which is a concern in a park like Houston. The projected Seattle lineup is not at all bereft of power, but there are six batters with a 27 K% or higher vs RHP since 2019. An early guess would be that Scherzer might carry the lowest ownership rate of the four, making him potentially the best leverage play of the group in the toughest matchup. Giolito might be the play if you’re looking for the highest floor.

Over 150 Sinkers Thrown Without a Single Whiff

Atlanta is a likely hot spot for bats tonight with the third highest implied run expectancy on the board at just under five runs, but let’s emphasize exactly how good it might be. It’s likely the most positive run environment on a slate with a majority of domes and west coast parks. Meanwhile, Zach Davies is off to an awful start with the Cubs. He’s struck out just 10 of 78, walking 11. He hasn’t gone past the fourth inning since his first start. He has a 10.5% Barrels/BBE rate with a career high 90.3 mph EV that’s more than a mile and a half per hour above his previous career high. The Padres had him throwing his sinker less than 40% of the time for the first time in his career last year with improved peripherals. The Cubs have jacked him back up to 50.8% again. He’s thrown the pitch 152 times without a single whiff and a wOBA (and xwOBA) above .400. What’s more, while LHBs have a .296 wOBA against him since 2019 and RHBs at .316, Statcast boosts batters from either side to within two points of a .345 xwOBA against him over that same span. That’s great news for a predominantly RH lineup here. Should Mike Trout not return (or maybe even if he does), Ronald Acuna (141 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is your top bat. He has a lineup leading 222 wRC+ this season overall with 18.3% Barrels/BBE. An Atlanta stack is expensive tonight, but a bit more affordable on FanDuel. But for those foregoing the Corbin Burnes experience tonight, there’s not another $10K pitcher on the board. Atlanta bats should fit in your lineup, but Acuna and Freddie Freeman (168 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP since 2019) are certainly two you want heavy exposure to tonight.

An Unconventional Stacking Spot

A spot you’re unlikely to see many daily fantasy players land tonight is on Seattle bats with an implied run line below four. However, there’s a chance that RH Mariner bats may be one of the highest upside spots on the board. Jose Urquidy had an alarming velocity drop of over two miles per hour last time out with just one strikeout (three walks) in Colorado. It’s possibly the result of cold weather with a bounce back in store. He’s previously struck out 19 of 66 batters against the Mariners and A’s, but with just a 9.5 SwStr%. His ground ball rate sits at 24.1% and has only been above 25% once in four starts.

In his short career, Urquidy also has a massive reverse split (RHBs .371 wOBA, LHBs .214 xwOBA) and that’s substantiated by Statcast (.372 xwOBA, .272 xwOBA). Believe it or not, the Seattle lineup is not bereft of RHBs who hit same-handed pitching fairly well. Since 2019, Mitch Haniger has a 106 wRC+ and .235 ISO against them. He’s bounced back strongly from injury with a 151 wRC+ this year. The top performer in the projected lineup is Ty France with his 173 wRC+ this year. He has a 127 wRC+ with a bit less power (.154 ISO) vs RHP since 2019 and a .367 xwOBA is 10 points better than his actual performance against them over that span. We should find these two atop the Seattle lineup tonight with neither costing more than $4K on either site.

A 200 wRC+ This Year Plus Ownership (.588 xwOBA) of Tonight's Opposing Pitcher

Adam Wainwright proved that he could still be a reliable pitcher at the back end of a rotation last year, but after getting bombed by the Reds with a single walk, strikeout and home run in his first start, the outlook didn’t seem so bright. However, since then, he’s struck out 23 of 74 with a 12.2 SwStr%. He has faced Milwaukee and Washington twice over that span, so don’t expect a 20 K-BB% pace to continue, but he can probably still be relied upon to give his team a chance to win most times out.

Against the Phillies though, he has greatly struggled with their biggest offensive threat. Bryce Harper (135 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP) has homered twice in 31 PAs against Wainwright, also including four doubles and a triple. The xwOBA in their head to head matchups is a staggering .588 with a 92.7 mph EV. St Louis is generally a park downgrade for most hitters and especially those from Philadelphia, but according to tonight’s posted forecast, this spot may get the biggest weather boost on the slate. Harper’s the most expensive player on the team, but could be well worth the pay up. He has a 200 wRC+ this year with a 99.7 mph EV on fly balls and line drives that will carry in any park.

A Pitching Staff You Generally Don't Stack Against

We may have just nine games tonight, but almost every terrible bullpen on the board is in action. Add up ERA, SIERA, xFIP and FIP then divide by four and you get six bullpens above 4.50 this year. The only inactive one tonight is Detroit (who play this afternoon). Our next best options to roster hitters against are the Reds (4.90). While we don’t necessarily need more incentive to roster Dodger bats, it’s potentially the most negative run environment on the board and Tyler Mahle has been good, but he has averaged just 20 batters faced per start. The bullpen should get some work in here. The Rockies (4.84) may not be as bad as that number outside Coors and get a massive park upgrade in San Francisco against a marginal lineup, who will be geared to face the lefty Austin Gomber.

The Angels (4.52) and Rangers (4.50) both appear on this list and will face each other in Texas. Shohei Ohtani may not be a pitcher you want to attack with a weak offense, but he’s been walking the park and may be gone by the fifth inning. Joey Gallo may be lightly owned, costs less than $4K on either site and has a 131 wRC+ this year. The remaining bullpen is the Phillies (4.52), who may not make a productive target tonight as Zach Wheeler generally goes deep in games. Just below that threshold is a Tampa Bay bullpen (4.42) that’s missing several arms and will start Rich Hill (four runs allowed in each start and averaging just twice through the lineup). Most of Oakland’s RH bats fare well against same-handed pitching. Sitting near the middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs, the A’s offer a great stacking opportunity tonight.

Middle of the Board Value Includes Lefty on a K Uptick

In general, the highest priced pitchers on the board are in some of the highest upside spots and generally your best bets tonight, but if looking to gain leverage with ownership or a desire for more offenses in your lineups drives you down into a lower price range, there are still a few reasonable options out there.

Anthony DeSclafani and Sean Manaea are in two of the higher upside spots on the board as well. DeSclafani is striking out batters at nearly a league average rate and walking a few less, producing a 16.9 K-BB% that’s just below his career high 17% back in 2019. More sinkers and curveballs have generated a career high 57.4 GB%, 14.5 points above his career rate. The Rockies have a 51 wRC+ on the road and 75 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Four of eight in the projected lineup are above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019. Manaea has struck out 14 of his last 51 and allowed just three runs over his last 19 innings. Half of his six Barrels were allowed in his first start. His swinging strike rate has exceeded 15% in each of his last two starts as he’s traded out sliders for more changeups (28.8%) against Detroit and Minnesota. The Rays have a good offense vs LHP (106 wRC+ this year), but it’s a negative run environment and just two of the projected nine are below a 23 K% vs LHP since 2019. DeSclafani costs just $6.8K on FanDuel, while Manaea is within $200 of $8K on either site.

Outside of those two, Charlie Morton has peripherals a bit better than results (3.91 ERA). His strikeout rate is back up to 28.7% through four starts and he even experienced a velocity spike against the Yankees last time out. His ground ball rate is back up to 49.1% again this year after a career low 41.6% last year. It truly seems like nagging injuries were his undoing last year, especially considering his improved post-season performance, which has carried over to this year. Additionally, five of eight projected starters for the Cubs are above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019. The bad news is that Atlanta may be the most positive run environment on the board tonight and the Cubs have a team 121 wRC+ over the last week. Morton is $8.6K or less on either site. Lastly, if you’re looking at Shohei Ohtani in Texas tonight, yes, there are likely some strikeouts in that lineup for him (four of the projected nine above 25% vs RHP since 2019) and yes, he costs just $7.7K, but workload limitations may be an issue yet again and he’s run up his pitch counts pretty quickly with 11 walks in two starts. He’s likely not a great option on FanDuel for more than $9K, where the Quality Start is of more importance.

Tonight's Top Pitcher Has Not Walked a Batter Yet This Year

The highest priced pitcher on the board and only one to reach $10K on either site is Corbin Burnes and that should not surprise anyone. In a world without Jacob deGrom, Burnes would be the leading candidate Cy Young candidate and pitcher of the month for April. He’s only struck out 40 of 85 batters (19 SwStr%) without a walk yet. Not only has he held last year’s gains, but also increased his velocity (97.1 mph) over a mile per hour, while also increasing his ground ball rate (54.8%) by over eight points and maintained his low exit velocity (86.5 mph). The only problem is that he’s failed to exceed 23 batters faced or 93 pitches in any start. The good news, even there, is that he reached both of those marks in his last start and he’s still been efficient enough to complete six innings in every start. Burnes has a nice matchup at home against the Marlins (80 wRC+ vs RHP) with four of their projected eight starters above a 28 K% vs RHP since 2019. If you want the top pitcher on the board, regardless of ownership, Burnes is far and away your guy.

In the $9.5K+ range, we find Julio Urias and Trevor Rogers on FanDuel, but only Urias on DraftKings. Tyler Mahle also reaches above $9K on both sites. Urias has not only increased his curveball usage to 27.6%, but it’s moving a bit more like a slider this year. The result has been an increased whiff rate on the pitch (30.8%) and an increased strikeout rate overall (26%) next to just four walks (4%), that’s less than half his career rate. He’s also averaged 25 batters faced over his four starts. The Reds have a 92 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but just 61 on the road, away from their power friendly home park. Dodger Stadium may be the most negative run environment on the board and there should be enough strikeouts in a likely predominantly RH lineup for a pitcher with no split (batters from either side below a .270 wOBA since 2019). Check projected ownership rates when they update later this afternoon to see if Urias can might provide more leverage than Burnes.

Rogers will be facing Burnes in a high upside matchup against the Brewers (five of eight projected starters above a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019). In each start this year, Rogers has exceeded five strikeouts and a 14 SwStr%. In no start this year has he exceeded two earned runs. He does have an 11.5 BB% and just one Barrel (2.2%), despite a 91.6 mph and 29.5 GB%, so there’s been an element of good luck upon contact, but he’s allowing so little of it that it’s hardly mattered yet. While Rogers does have a high pitch count of 95 against the Braves two starts back, he’s otherwise been below 85 in each of his other three starts. He’s likely a better value below $9K on DraftKings. Mahle has a 38.8 K% through four starts, but a 12.8 SwStr%, while above average, doesn’t necessarily support such a high K rate. For reference, he had a 13.8 SwStr% with a 29.9 K% in just under 50 innings last year. The 11.3 BB% may also be problematic, especially against the Dodgers, but in his favor are a great pitching environment against an offense coming off a draining series against the Padres, including an extra-inning loss after blowing a large lead last night and potentially the lowest ownership of the four.

Strikeout Rate Increasing, But Not the Price Tag

With several Cy Young candidates on the slate tonight, most players are probably paying up for pitching tonight and probably rightly so, but let’s draw some attention to a more fringe Cy Young candidate this year, who can be found for $8K or less on either site. Sandy Alcantara is slowly becoming a true Ace. He’s struck out 28 of 100 batters with a 15.4 SwStr%, increasing his strikeout rate substantially for a second consecutive year. Only deGrom and Glasnow exceed that latter number today. He’s allowed a single Barrel and HR in 62 BBEs as well. Most non-FIP estimators are near agreement with his actual 3.28 ERA, though folding in his contact profile actually drops him to a 1.81 xERA. His velocity is up over half a mile per hour as well. Everything seems to be falling in line for Alcantara, who also only ranks behind Yusei Kikuchi tonight in terms of average batters faced per start this year (25). That’s almost three full trips through the lineup on average. The best news, as mentioned, is the price tag, where he sits in the middle of the board on either site. The matchup is fine against a San Francisco lineup that’s far more potent against LHP than RHP (85 wRC+ this year with four of eight in the projected lineup below a .330 wOBA and .170 ISO vs RHP since 2019). If you’re curious about ownership projections, early numbers suggest he may be well regarded, but not prohibitively so on such a large slate.

Powerful LH Bats Should Mash in This Spot

Left-handed Oakland bats are in a great spot tonight, as not only do they get a significant park upgrade in Baltimore, but Jorge Lopez has one of the worst splits on the board. LHBs have a .394 wOBA against him since 2019 and that’s no fluke, confirmed by a .392 xwOBA. While that makes Matt Olson (143 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2019) on of the top non-Coors bats on the board with a projected lineup leading 201 wRC+ overall this year, he’s actually edged out by Seth Brown (147 wRC+, .237 ISO) in terms of exit velocity on fly balls and line drives this year, 101.6 mph to 100.6 mph. Brown also costs more than $1K less on either site as well and has a 188 wRC+ this year. Another strong and cheap LH bat in this lineup is Mitch Moreland (133 wRC+, .286 ISO) and the rejuvenated Jed Lowrie (114 wRC+, .196 ISO). We certainly don’t have to preclude RH A’s from our stacks either, as most generally fair well against same-handed pitching and Lopez hasn’t exactly dominated them either (.324 wOBA & xwOBA since 2019). At a bit under five runs, the Oakland offense has the fifth highest implied run line tonight.

Finding a Poor Bullpen to Attack

Attacking a poor starting pitcher is not the only way players can find daily fantasy success. An often under-valued aspect of the game is in the bullpens, which are sharing a larger percentage of innings than ever before. It’s no secret at this point that the Tigers have the worst bullpen in baseball (adding SIERA, ERA, xFIP and FIP divided by four gives them a league worst 5.74). Casey Mize has increased his ground ball rate, but still doesn’t strike out many batters and has platoon issues (wOBA & xwOBA above .400 career), which puts Carlos Santana (116 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since 2019) on our radar tonight in a predominantly RH lineup. We also expect to see the Rockies (4.90) among the worst bullpens, but we don’t need much more extolling on the virtues of visiting teams at Coors today. The Cincinnati bullpen (5.28) was worked hard in this week’s series against the Diamondbacks and is without a solidified closer right now. Sonny Gray may not be a pitcher worth attacking in a tough St Louis park, especially when most of the power comes from the right side. A surprise entrant on our worst bullpen is the Tampa Bay bullpen (4.82), but Tyler Glasnow gets the start. Moving down the list one more spot, we find the Texas bullpen (4.56) in Chicago tonight. Dane Dunning has impressed, but has been limited to 75 pitches in each start. He’s often been followed by lefty Taylor Hearn, but that could give powerful RH bats like Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes, Luis Robert and Yasmani Grandal an additional advantage, as they’ve pummeled LHP in recent years. Dunning’s early success (and trade revenge narrative) could push players off White Sox bats tonight, but everyone in the projected lineup with more than 30 PAs against RHP since 2019 is either league average or better by wRC+ and they’ll also get the benefit of facing one of the worst bullpens in the league by the fifth inning or so.

A History of Lefty on Lefty Violence

If you filter BaseballSavant’s Daily Matchups page for 15 or more PAs against opposing pitcher and sort by xwOBA, you may find some potentially useful BvP data based on exit velocity and launch angle over a growing sample, completely disregarding things like batting average. This information could key us in on an offense with a marginal implied run line at around four and a half tonight. The Mariners strike out a ton and usually give us many reasons to roster opposing pitchers, but Martin Perez strikes out so few that it’s hardly worth chasing the Ks tonight. Instead, why not focus on an offense that’s not that bad overall (six of nine batters in the projected lineup above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP since 2019) and gets a massive park upgrade tonight at Fenway. Mitch Haniger is the spot where most daily fantasy players are likely to land tonight. He has a 148 wRC+ and .293 ISO vs LHP since 2019 and homered last night. Meanwhile, RHBs have a .346 wOBA against Perez since 2019, while he’s essentially smothered LHBs (.278 wOBA). One LHB he hasn’t smothered, who generally hits most LHP well too, is Kyle Seager (123 wRC+, .240 ISO). In 59 head to head matchups, Seager has homered off Perez four times and holds a .371 xwOBA. While we might count the previous park in Texas as responsible for some of that damage, while Perez was with the Rangers, the wind is blowing out fairly strongly to RF at Fenway tonight. Seager should not draw much ownership tonight. Haniger, however, is $500 less on DraftKings, but also adds some strong historical numbers against Perez. In 24 PAs, he doesn’t have a HR, but two doubles with a .402 xwOBA. Stacking these two with the returning Kyle Lewis (105 wRC+, .203 ISO) costs players just $8.8K on FanDuel and just under $12K on DraftKings.

Differentiate By Paying Up For Top Bats

If you want to differentiate from most players tonight by paying down for pitching and up for offense, the Atlanta Braves might be the team you’re looking for. At just under five implied runs, the Braves are projected the fourth most potent offense on the board, high price tags for premium bats might keep many players away. Ronald Acuna Jr. (expected back tonight) and Freddie Freeman each exceed $6K on DraftKings, though Freeman finds himself just under $4K on FanDuel. They are, without a doubt, the two premium bats in this lineup and should be right at the top in the first and second slots. While Freeman’s proficiency against RHP is very obvious (170 wRC+, .300 ISO since 2019), Acuna shares a trait with Mike Trout here, in the way he manhandles same-handed pitching (142 wRC+, .271 ISO). Also, before he left for a few days, Acuna was smashing the ball to the tune of a 254 wRC+ this year. He and Freeman are also top two in the lineup in EV on flay balls and line drives this year at 98.5 mph and 97.7 mph respectively. Luke Weaver has a small split since 2019 (LHBs .328 wOBA/.333 xwOBA – RHBs .301 wOBA/.318 xwOBA), but the ball carries in Atlanta and Weaver is below a 40% ground ball rate against batters from either side of the plate over that same span. Acuna and Freeman may be two of the top bats on the site overall outside Coors.

Finding Value In Top Offenses Tonight

Conditions may not be as favorable as usual at Coors tonight, while the Phillies are facing Colorado’s top pitcher, who has a 3.57 ERA this year even with three of his four starts at Coors, but we also don’t generally see a lot of good bats so cheap in this spot. If Brad Miller is in this lineup tonight (as projected), he would bring a 133 wRC+ and .274 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and a 154 wRC+ overall this year with him. One weakness of Marquez’s is a large platoon split. While he’s held RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since 2019, LHBs have a .322 wOBA and .352 xwOBA with a ground ball rate dropping below 50% against him. Miller costs just $3K on either site, obviously a better value on DraftKings, where pairing him up with Bryce Harper (134 wRC+, .247 ISO) would only cost $8.7K. On the other side of this matchup, Raimel Tapia also costs only $3K on DraftKings and is likely to be in the leadoff spot. His 81 wRC+ and .128 ISO vs RHP since 2019 don’t flash upside, but he should get two cracks at a pitcher who has offered LHBs a .355 wOBA over the same time span.

FanDuel players can find value in the middle of a powerful lineup as well tonight. Gio Urshela has begun claiming the cleanup spot recently for the Yankees. His 118 wRC+ and .194 ISO against LHP does not overwhelm you, but it gets the job done. Also consider that his 97.5 mph EV on fly balls and line drives this year is third best in this projected lineup. He’ll be facing a pitcher who has only faced 176 RHBs in his career, but has allowed them a .369 wOBA with a .380 xwOBA to match. Surrounded by giants whose price tags may be commiserate with their heights, Urshela costs just $2.4K on FanDuel and less than $1K more on FanDuel tonight.