DFS Alerts

Finding Value In Top Offenses Tonight

Conditions may not be as favorable as usual at Coors tonight, while the Phillies are facing Colorado’s top pitcher, who has a 3.57 ERA this year even with three of his four starts at Coors, but we also don’t generally see a lot of good bats so cheap in this spot. If Brad Miller is in this lineup tonight (as projected), he would bring a 133 wRC+ and .274 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and a 154 wRC+ overall this year with him. One weakness of Marquez’s is a large platoon split. While he’s held RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since 2019, LHBs have a .322 wOBA and .352 xwOBA with a ground ball rate dropping below 50% against him. Miller costs just $3K on either site, obviously a better value on DraftKings, where pairing him up with Bryce Harper (134 wRC+, .247 ISO) would only cost $8.7K. On the other side of this matchup, Raimel Tapia also costs only $3K on DraftKings and is likely to be in the leadoff spot. His 81 wRC+ and .128 ISO vs RHP since 2019 don’t flash upside, but he should get two cracks at a pitcher who has offered LHBs a .355 wOBA over the same time span.

FanDuel players can find value in the middle of a powerful lineup as well tonight. Gio Urshela has begun claiming the cleanup spot recently for the Yankees. His 118 wRC+ and .194 ISO against LHP does not overwhelm you, but it gets the job done. Also consider that his 97.5 mph EV on fly balls and line drives this year is third best in this projected lineup. He’ll be facing a pitcher who has only faced 176 RHBs in his career, but has allowed them a .369 wOBA with a .380 xwOBA to match. Surrounded by giants whose price tags may be commiserate with their heights, Urshela costs just $2.4K on FanDuel and less than $1K more on FanDuel tonight.

Hidden Matchup Upside For Potential Breakout Arm

Some of the highest upside spots (based solely on opposing strikeout rates and average number of batters faced without regard to a pitcher’s own strikeout rate) have been gifted to pitchers we generally don’t want any part of or may not even be on the slate tonight (which is a shame because the Cubs and Brewers both generally offer pitcher upside). The most audible groans are probably reserved for Martin Perez facing the Mariners (seven batters in projected Seattle lineup above a 26.5 K% vs LHP since 2019) in what may be the most positive run environment on the board when including weather effects and Dylan Cease hosting the Rangers, who have a 29.5 K% against RHP this year. In Perez’s case, he simply doesn’t generate swing and misses (6.7 SwStr% in 2021), while Cease walks too many (14 of 63 this year), quickly running up his pitch count. The latter costs just $6.6K on either site though and may work as a secondary arm on DraftKings tonight.

Covering a few additional pitchers costing under $10K in potential high upside spots gives us such names as German Marquez, J.T. Brubaker, Mike Minor, Steven Matz and Vince Velasquez. Let’s get Coors out of the way first, where Marquez faces Velasquez. The latter, like Cease, runs up pitch counts with control issues (14.2 BB% since last year), but could face a lineup with six batters above a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019. Marquez has just a 21.1 K% since last year, but there may be some sneaky strikeouts in a Philadelphia team that has a 25.4 K% vs RHP this year and 27.3% overall over the last seven days. Additionally, conditions suggest that Coors may not be as dangerous as usual according to Weather Edge. Vazquez is the lowest priced pitcher on the board on DraftKings.

Matz (26.5 K%) is enjoying a complete reversal of BABIP and HR/FB fortune early on and gets the Rays (five of nine in projected lineup at 25 K% or higher vs LHP since 2019) in a negative run environment, but costs around $9K on either site. Minor has a 17.6 K%, but more respectable 10.8 SwStr% and is facing a Detroit offense with a 30.8 K% vs LHP this year. He’s certainly an option for less than $7K on either site. The surprise here is Brubaker. Not only at his 27.3 K% this year, but also at potentially finding four batters at the bottom of the Minnesota lineup above a 30 K% vs RHP since 2019. Brubaker costs around $8K and could go under-owned against an offense with a big reputation and 119 wRC+ vs RHP this year. The upside in this spot may dictate that he’s worth the gamble for GPP players tonight.

Highest Strikeout Rate Or Highest Opposing Strikeout Rate?

There’s no shortage of premium pitchers on a 14 game Friday night slate with four pitchers hitting the $10K mark on FanDuel and Yu Darvish dipping just under that on FanDuel. In addition, all four are pitching in very negative run environments, further enhancing their outlooks tonight. Still, the race for top overall arm may not be all that close tonight and that’s because Jacob deGrom has struck out 14 in back to back starts. He’s struck out 35 of the 72 batters to face him with a 23.2 SwStr%. He’s done this by throwing a fastball with a 39.1 Whiff% 68.6% of the time so far. And that’s his worst performing pitch. He has a 71.4 Z-Contact% and .221 xwOBA. While he may not be in an extremely favorable matchup from a strikeout perspective (four in the projected lineup below 20% vs RHP since 2019), he does face the Nationals without Juan Soto, which should be a large boost from a run prevention perspective.

Tyler Glasnow seems to have solved some hard contact issues by adding a slider (29.1%) to his arsenal. It doesn’t have to be good. It just has to look different. He’s struck out 36 of 90 batters (16.5 SwStr%) with seven walks (four last time out against the Yankees), one Barrel (86.3 mph EV) and no Home Runs. The Blue Jays have just an 85 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but the projected lineup averages a 21.3 K% via PlateIQ. Meanwhile, Darvish and Clayton Kershaw face each other in the premier matchup of the night. Despite key injuries early in the season, the Dodgers still have a 133 wRC+ vs RHP, though that didn’t stop Darvish from shutting them down last time out, striking out nine of 25 with just a single hit and run. His 29.8 K% and 4.5 BB% are both in line with recent seasons, while he’s generated just an 86 mph EV. Kershaw may be in the highest upside spot of the four. The Padres have just an 86 wRC+ vs LHP and while some of that has been due to Fernando Tatis Jr. missing a week, he may still be compromised with a shoulder issue. PlateIQ projects five players in the San Diego lineup with a 25 K% or higher vs LHP since 2019.

If looking strictly for value or if you just have salary to spare for the most expensive pitcher on the slate, deGrom is your man. If you’re looking at matchup upside and considering an ownership perspective, most importantly, wait until ownership projections update later this afternoon and act accordingly, but an early bet for leverage in that direction may be on Clayton Kershaw tonight.

Is Tonight's Top Arm in a Fade Spot?

A negative run environment with an additional potential weather boost for the only $10K pitcher on the board seems like a near cinch decision. Batters from either side of the plate fall within a .268 to .291 wOBA and xwOBA against Walker Buehler since 2019 and the Padres have just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but there are a few reasons you might wish to go underweight on him tonight. The concerning signs start with a 17.1 K% and 9.9 SwStr% through three starts (70 batters). His velocity is down over a mile per hour and he is lucky that just two of his six Barrels (10.5% of contact) have left the yard. Despite the lower velocity, he’s throwing his four-seamer more than ever (60.4%). Adding to his good fortune, the pitch has a .288 wOBA, much lower than it’s .363 xwOBA with a 13.4 Whiff%. The pitch was below a .200 wOBA and xwOBA with a 26.1 Whiff% last year. While Buehler is helping the cause with just one walk so far, the 92.1 LOB% won’t sustain for long. This doesn’t necessarily mean you want to load up on San Diego bats tonight. This is still a terrible hitting environment tonight and the Dodgers have an excellent bullpen.

Conditions and bullpen aptitude are also considerations for Dodger bats too. Ryan Weathers now seems to have a more stable place in this rotation with recent injury news. The former first round pick and second generation MLB pitcher struck out three of the 13 Dodgers he faced in his first start with only a single hit and two walks. He hadn’t exceeded A-Ball prior to this year, where he had strong walk rates, but marginal strikeout numbers. He’s been two-thirds a 95 mph four-seamer and one-third slider. Scouting reports suggest he also has a decent changeup, but he’s barely shown it to major league hitters. The lack of a third offering is likely to limit his workload against the Dodgers again tonight and the Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball (2.67 ERA, 2.66 SIERA). However, Justin Turner has smoked lefties (147 wRC+, .278 ISO since 2019) and just about everyone else in the league this season (214 wRC+ overall). Meanwhile, Mookie Betts has actually struggled against LHP since 2019 (103 wRC+, .142 ISO) and has been in and out of the lineup this year with nagging injury issues.

This Lineup Torches Southpaws

Theoretically, a matchup pitting a pitcher with more walks than strikeouts against one who’s dropped over 2.5 mph in velocity would be a daily fantasy offensive hotspot, but neither team in San Francisco finds themselves at the top of tonight’s board on a five game slate. In fact, the Marlins have the second lowest implied run line on the board. San Francisco may no longer be the extremely negative run environment it once was, but weather conditions aren’t expected to favor hitters tonight either.

In his first start, also against the Giants, Daniel Castano walked two of 19 without a strikeout (2.7 SwStr%). In 34.2 innings of major league work now, he’s walked one more than he’s struck out. The Giants haven’t been as explosive against LHP this year with just a 97 wRC+, but It’s still an extremely small sample from a lineup that has history of smoking marginal left-handed arms. While he’s held RHBs to a .290 wOBA, Statcast has batters from both sides within eight points of a .340 xwOBA against Castano. Each of the first five batters in the projected lineup for the Giants exceeds a 130 wRC+ and .240 ISO vs LHP since 2019. Darin Ruf is the minimum ($2K) on FanDuel, although you may have to worry about him being lifted later in the game.

The other side of this matchup is more difficult because Aaron Sanchez has lost 2.6 mph of velocity since we last saw him in 2019, but has actually improved upon some of his results. Strikeouts aren’t one of those results though (19%), while he’s been limited to 82 pitches or less in all three starts. His 4.4% Barrels/BBE, 88.6 mph EV and 55.6 GB% are all slightly better than career rates too, as is his 9.9 SwStr%. It’s an extremely small sample, of course, but he’s down to less than 50% fastballs (both four-seam and sinkers) in favor of 32.4% curveballs. Maybe something he picked up in Houston? A predominantly RH lineup, the Marlins have just an 84 wRC+ vs RHP this year. The Marlins don’t have a batter in the projected lineup above a 118 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and only four above a .150 ISO. Sanchez could be fine from a run prevention standpoint for $7.1K on DraftKings, but don’t expect him to exceed 20 points.

This Splitter Has a 46.7 Whiff% This Year

While the hype is on an NL West matchup tonight, the more interesting pitching matchup may be in an AL West one. It’s just two starts, but Alex Cobb seems to be throwing his splitter type pitch again to great success. Perhaps greater success than he’s ever had. He’s thrown it 45.4% of the time with a 46.7 Whiff% and .214 xwOBA. As a result, he’s struck out 17 of 49 with two walks, just two Barrels and 16 of his 29 batted balls on the ground. That said, just two batters in the projected lineup (Straw, Maldonado) are below a 119 wRC+ and .197 ISO vs RHP since 2019, while batters from either side of the plate are above a .390 xwOBA against Cobb over that same time span. This looks like a different pitcher though and Cobb costs nearly $2K less than his opponent on DraftKings tonight. He’s $1.4K more on FanDuel, where’s the second most expensive pitcher, but may still be viable on a small slate.

Critian Javier arrived on the scene with enormous minor league strikeout rates last year and proceeded to fan 25.4% of the 214 batters he faced with just an 8.7 SwStr% that screamed regression. To follow up, he’s struck out 11 of his first 35 with a 9.3 SwStr%. His 18.4 CStr% isn’t out of line either, so it’s not like he’s getting an abundance of looking strikes. It just can’t keep up. His first strike rate is below 45% as well. How is he doing any of this? Of course, neither of the luck sack’s two Barrels have left the yard, while the fact that he has allowed just two Barrels with a 28.6 GB% and 91 mph EV in the first place is just more perplexing. Anyway, the point is…Angel’s bats (114 wRC+ vs RHP), particularly in the top half of the lineup, are worthy of your attention tonight. With an implied run line below four and a half runs, they might not be on many radars (as far under the radar as anyone can fly on a five game slate anyway). Javier has smothered RHBs in his career (.221 wOBA, .225 xwOBA), but LHBs have been about average against him (.317, .307). The LH bats you’re looking for here are Shohei Ohtani (121 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Jared Walsh (135 wRC+, .291 ISO). Neither is cheap, but the lack of high end pitching tonight, should allow for a fit here.

Affordable LH Bats Project Well Under Favorable Conditions

The Mets have under-performed to the tune of just a 98 wRC+ vs RHP. Game postponements and cold weather may be a partial reason for that. Tonight, they’ll finally have some hitting weather at Wrigley with the wind blowing out to right-center at 10+ mph. That’s particularly beneficial to their left-handed power. Also beneficial is that LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Trevor Williams since 2019. RHBs have hit him pretty well too (.344 wOBA, .324 xwOBA). The first seven projected batters for the Mets all exceed a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO vs RHP since 2019, though Brandon Nimmo, who missed last night with a hip issue, is the only LHB in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ overall this season. If he plays, he’s the value in this lineup at less than $4K on either site. Dominic Smith (142 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP) is just $2.7K on FanDuel. Pete Alonso (138 wRC+, .300 ISO) hit one completely out of Wrigley under rougher conditions last night.

On the other side, the Cubs actually present one of the higher upside matchups on the slate with five of eight batters in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019, but Lucchesi seems to be a guy the Mets want to limit to twice through the order or less and will likely be replaced by a RHP by the fifth inning if not earlier. Lucchesi is also projected to face only one LHB (Anthony Rizzo), though RHBs have just a .311 wOBA against him since 2019. There are three RHBs above a 115 wRC+ and .240 ISO in tonight’s projected lineup: Willson Contreras (127, .242), Kris Bryant (170, .324) and Javier Baez (120, .277). They should each get two cracks at the lefty, but all three are fairly expensive. Both offenses are tied for the second highest implied output tonight at 4.75 runs. Bats in this game will be on everyone’s radar.

High Upside Spot For Both Sides of One Matchup

The most positive run environment on the board may also get a weather boost on Thursday, which may particularly boost LH power at Fenway (wind blowing out to right at near 20 mph. A matchup between Justin Dunn and Nick Pivetta should also do nothing to dissuade daily fantasy players from loading up on bats in this game. Two discouraging factors are ownership with Boston bats as the only offense above five implied runs tonight and two of the top bullpens in the league so far, but it might not be a spot we’re comfortable fading. The Red Sox have a 126 wRC+ over the last week and 134 vs RHP (both slate highs) and Dunn has a 0.7 K-BB% with a 33.9 GB% through 62 major league innings. LHBs have a .356 wOBA and .410 xwOBA against him. The projected lineup for the Red Sox carries two strong LH bats in Alex Verdugo (123 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Rafael Devers (147 wRC+, .283 ISO). Both are above a 120 wRC+ overall this season and cost exactly $3.4K on FanDuel. Verdugo is over $1K cheaper and the better value on DraftKings.

The other side of this matchup is one of the more interesting ones on the board tonight. Nick Pivetta has walked 11 of the 65 batters he’s faced, while striking out 14 (11.2 SwStr%). He has just a 28.2 GB%. The Mariners haven’t been terrible vs RHP (100 wRC+), though they are one of the few high upside matchups on the board. Five of nine batters in the projected lineup are above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019. While there’s only one batter in the projected lineup below a 94 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019, there’s also only two above 110. You need two pitchers on DraftKings and Pivetta ($7.5K) has some upside against this lineup. However, batters from both side of the plate are above a .350 against Pivetta since 2019. Jose Marmolejos (108 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is a bat we want to look at closely tonight. He costs $3.4K or less on either site and has an overall 144 wRC+ this year. Exposure to both sides of this matchup appears to be justifiable on this five game slate.

Cold Temperatures Should Affect Ability To Get On Base

Weather conditions aren’t exactly ideal at Wrigley tonight, but we can probably say that about most places. What is ideal though, is Jake Arrieta’s performance against LHBs since 2019 (.377 wOBA, .383 xwOBA with just 44% of his contact on the ground). The Mets have one of the better left-handed centric lineups in baseball with four from that side at or above a 130 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and that group doesn’t even include Francisco Lindor (113 wRC+, .227 ISO). One thing the cold is less likely to effect is Brandon Nimmo’s uncanny ability to get on base by any means necessary. He’s sitting on a 202 wRC+, partially due to a 17 BB% that has his early season OBP above .500. He’s been on base in every Met game so far. Walks are not generally what we’re looking for in daily fantasy, but those could turn into runs with a bunch of big bats behind him and Nimmo costs $3.5K or less on either site tonight. Michael Conforto (144 wRC+, .247 ISO) looked to be breaking out of his early season slump in Colorado this weekend and also costs $3.5K or less on either site. While conditions are not ideal, the Mets still find themselves right around the middle of the board at around four implied runs.

RHBs Have a .395 wOBA Against This Lefty Since 2020

Patrick Corbin has faced 40 batters, striking out just six (9.8 SwStr%), walking seven with four HRs. Five of his 25 batted balls (95.3 mph EV) have been Barrels with just seven on the ground. His velocity remains where it was last year (90.4 mph), down significantly from 2019. None of this is good, of course. Since last season, Corbin has faced 259 RHBs, not a massive sample, but they have crushed him for a .395 wOBA and .225 ISO that includes just an 18.1 K%. Nolan Arenado has a long history with Corbin. In fact, they’ve faced each other 55 times (second most on the slate) going back to their NL West days. Arenado has six extra-base hits, including three HRs with a .378 xwOBA against Corbin in those PAs. Of course, we’re adding Coors to the equation, but Corbin was also a much better pitcher. Using wRC+, which factors out park effects, Arenado has a 130 mark (.258 ISO) vs LHP since 2019. Paul Goldschmidt (157 wRC+, .282 ISO), Tommy Edman (140 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Yadier Molina (145 wRC+, .239 ISO) have also hammered southpaws over that span.

League's Worst Bullpens Offer West Coast Opportunities

For those looking for some extra leverage by attacking the worst bullpens in the league, an often over-looked aspect daily fantasy strategy, you may be out of luck tonight because there’s unlikely to be baseball in Detroit due to weather concerns tonight. The next best, but very obvious spot is the Colorado bullpen. Dropping down further, if we add up ERA, xFIP, FIP and SIERA and divide by four, the Rays have the third worst bullpen in baseball this year (4.55). A surprise if you didn’t know their injury situation this year. This Tampa Bay bullpen is all kinds of banged up and Rich Hill is not a pitcher who usually goes more than four or five innings. The downside here is that while the weather is expected to clear up, there’s currently snow on the field in Kansas City and conditions are still expcted to favor pitching tonight. The Rangers have just a 3.32 SIERA, but 4.56 FIP and 5.34 ERA. Additionally, closer Ian Kennedy (yes, you read that right) has thrown back to back days and may not be available tonight. The Texas pen will back Jordan Lyles against the Angels tonight and could see a lot of work. Shohei Ohtani is not expected to be in the lineup when he’s on the mound tonight, which shortens the Angels’ lineup, but Mike Trout and Jared Walsh both exceed a 200 wRC+ this year. The last of the bottom five bullpens is also very unexpected, but the Brewers have a 4.31 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 4.79 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA. Nobody will be attacking Corbin Burnes tonight, but he has been held to 87 pitches or less in every start and Josh Hader has pitched on consecutive days if you were to be so bold.

Big Bat Expected To Return Tonight

Players generally don’t need someone to advise them to roster bats at Coors, but tonight’s game deserves some extra attention. Weather conditions may devalue the hitter friendliness of the park somewhat tonight, but it’s still likely the most positive run environment on the board. Fenway may be close, but with two strong pitchers on the mound. The thing to know about this spot though is that the Astros may be getting a big bat back from COVID concerns tonight. That’s likely Alex Bregman, but not Jose Altuve or Yordano Alvarez. Altuve is still expected to be out, but Alvarez is likely to sit in an NL park. Shame for Alvarez because LHBs have a .342 wOBA (.349 xwOBA) against Jon Gray since 2019. Gray did show some encouraging signs in his first start against the Dodgers, including increased velocity, but has since regressed in two more recent starts. Kyle Tucker (144 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP career) and Michael Brantley (148 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since 2019) may be the two top bats on either slate tonight, but Alex Bregman (142 wRC+, .235 ISO) costs just $3.5K on FanDuel. RHBs have been about average against Gray (.304 wOBA, .312 xwOBA). Of course, should Altuve unexpectedly return, he’d also be among tonight’s top bats too. It’s hard to find a bad looking bat in the bunch among Astros tonight. They are the top offense on the board at 5.8 implied runs tonight.

Finding Value Bats In An Unconventional Spot

One of the few spots off the west coast that we can be assured won’t be affected by weather tonight is the only dome situations on the slate in Miami. Generally not considered a hitter friendly environment, it may not be much worse than a lot of other cold and weather effected environments tonight. The park will host a game between the Marlins and Orioles, again, two offenses we don’t often look to jam into daily fantasy lineups, but this situation may offer some value, especially at the top of the visiting order. Nick Neidert is unlikely to be a Miami rotation mainstay. He’s walked more (nine) than he’s struck out (six) through 40 batters with just a 6.2 SwStr%. He’s generated half as many Barrels (three) as ground balls (six) through 25 batted balls. LHBs have a .464 wOBA (.500 xwOBA) just 32 career PAs, but it’s probably a fair assumption to make that he might not be good against them. The projected Baltimore lineup offers a few average or better LH bats against RHP since 2019. Those include Cedric Mullins (97 wRC+, .143 ISO), DJ Stewart (110 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Anthony Santander (106 wRC+, .241 ISO). Stewart is less than $3K on DraftKings (not included on the FanDuel main slate) and may be one of the top values of the day. All three are below $4K. Don’t sleep on the home team side of this matchup either. While the Marlins lean mostly right-handed, LHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Matt Harvey since 2019, making Corey Dickerson (120 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP over that span) a great value at just $3.1K too.

Weather Conditions Adding To Affordable Pitching Upside

If we comb through PlateIQ to find the highest average strikeout rates and consider pitcher workloads (average batters faced per start), we can get a pretty quick and dirty idea of some of the highest upside spots on the slate and potentially find an under-valued gem. This method is especially useful when trying to navigate an affordable SP2 on DraftKings, where we’re not as worried about the Quality Start. Unfortunately, today’s potential highest upside spots come with some issues. Those spots include pitchers facing the Brewers, Rangers, Mariners and Tigers.

The Mariners and Dodgers are the only afternoon game. The Rangers face Shohei Ohtani, who’s reported to limited to 75 pitches. The forecast for the Pirates and Tigers reads exactly “Lol, nope” on the Weather Page. Chris Paddack is an option against the Brewers, but perhaps more so on FanDuel where he’s $3.1 K less ($6.9K). He has just a 16.9 K%, but 10.8 SwStr%. Sure, we’re concerned about his ability to go six innings, but you may have some issues identifying strong bets for a Quality Start tonight.

Let’s look at a couple more affordable pitchers in higher upside spots tonight. Both also have potential conditions in their favor according to early Weather Edge info as well. Taijuan Walker has struck out 12 of 41 batters (12 SwStr%) through two starts with a velocity increase of 1.5 mph over last year. In fact, his velocity was last this high (94.8 mph) back in 2015. While he’s allowed two Barrels (8.3%), his exit velocity is just 83 mph. The default PlateIQ filters shows 2019-21 currently and the projected Cubs lineup includes five batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019, but also an entire lineup above a .340 wOBA and .180 ISO. Filter to just this season however, and the grid tells a much less concerning story. In fact, the Cubs as a team, have just a 74 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Next, we’ve reached the point where the Colorado lineup is so bad, we’re looking for visiting pitchers to stream at Coors, especially under pitcher friendly weather conditions, which we may have tonight. Luis Garcia struck out one of 17 Angels in his first start, but then seven of 16 Tigers in a relief outing over a week ago. He has some upside with elevated minor league strikeout rates, although he’s never pitched above A ball aside from his major league work. A concern would be just three of his 21 batted balls have been on the ground this year. The projected Colorado lineup has just two position players below a 23 K% vs RHP sicne 2019.

Potential Workload Issues for Top Arms

On a 13 game slate, DraftKings sees only the matchup in San Diego reach $10K tonight (both Chris Paddack and Corbin Burnes) with Zach Wheeler additionally at $9.8K and Jameson Taillon the only other pitcher reaching $9K. On a slate starting at 7 pm ET and including just eight games, Burnes is the only pitcher to reach $10K on FanDuel with Hyun-Jin Ryu, Wheeler and Shohei Ohtani reaching $9K.

Burnes has struck out 30 of 62 (19.7 SwStr%) without a walk. Just two of his 30 batted balls (86.7 mph EV) have been Barrels with a 56.7 GB%. The only issue here is that he’s only faced 62 batters. The Brewers have yet to let him exceed 87 pitches. He faces a tough lineup in San Diego, but with of the first six projected batters in the lineup at a 24 K% or higher vs RHP since 2019. Paddack has just a 6.8 K-BB% over his first three starts. The 4.15 ERA doesn’t look so bad because three of his nine runs have been unearned. This have been more positive from a contact standpoint, as just one of his 43 batted balls has been a Barrel with an 86.3 mph EV. His 10.8 SwStr% is fine and he’s never previously had walk issues, so perhaps there’s still some improvement to come, which could start tonight against a weak Milwaukee lineup. Every batter in the projected lineup is above a 22 K% vs RHP since 2019. Still, $10K is a pretty steep price for Paddack. He’s $3.1K less on FanDuel though.

Wheeler struck out 10 of 22 Braves in his first start, but without much of a change in an arsenal that produced an 18.4 K% last year. He’s since swapped in a few more sliders for sinkers, which one would think would increase the strikeout rate, but he’s fanned just 10 of 53 with a 7.9 SwStr% over his last two starts. Additionally, his 90 mph EV is more than three mph above his career rate (86.7 mph) and his 38.8 GB% is well below not only last year (55.9%), but his career rate (47.2%). It seems like he may still be trying to figure out who he’s going to be in Philadelphia, but it’s questionable whether you’ll get enough Ks to justify the price tag. Ryu has been magnificent through three starts, earning all the money Toronto signed him for and more since his arrival. He’s struck out 19 of 73 (14.4 SwStr%), while walking two with as many home runs and Barrels (3.8%) on 52 batted balls (86.3 mph EV). His 56.9 GB% would be a career high. The projected Boston lineup averages a .354 wOBA and .237 ISO vs LHP since 2019. It’s a very tough matchup in a very tough park, but RHBs have just a .283 wOBA and .130 ISO vs Ryu since 2019. Batters on the current roster have just a .250 xwOBA and 31.1 K% against Ryu in 61 PAs. He can handle just about any lineup, but again, can he justify the price tag in this spot? Ohtani and Taillon share workload issues with both having not thrown many innings over the last two years. The former has already been reported to be limited to 75 pitches, while the latter has no business being priced this high against Atlanta, even without Acuna. Ohtani is just $7.5K on DraftKings, where he may still be a consideration against a high upside Texas lineup if he can get through five innings. If you’re paying up for pitching tonight though, it may just be best to stick with Burnes.