DFS Alerts

Potential Workload Issues for Top Arms

On a 13 game slate, DraftKings sees only the matchup in San Diego reach $10K tonight (both Chris Paddack and Corbin Burnes) with Zach Wheeler additionally at $9.8K and Jameson Taillon the only other pitcher reaching $9K. On a slate starting at 7 pm ET and including just eight games, Burnes is the only pitcher to reach $10K on FanDuel with Hyun-Jin Ryu, Wheeler and Shohei Ohtani reaching $9K.

Burnes has struck out 30 of 62 (19.7 SwStr%) without a walk. Just two of his 30 batted balls (86.7 mph EV) have been Barrels with a 56.7 GB%. The only issue here is that he’s only faced 62 batters. The Brewers have yet to let him exceed 87 pitches. He faces a tough lineup in San Diego, but with of the first six projected batters in the lineup at a 24 K% or higher vs RHP since 2019. Paddack has just a 6.8 K-BB% over his first three starts. The 4.15 ERA doesn’t look so bad because three of his nine runs have been unearned. This have been more positive from a contact standpoint, as just one of his 43 batted balls has been a Barrel with an 86.3 mph EV. His 10.8 SwStr% is fine and he’s never previously had walk issues, so perhaps there’s still some improvement to come, which could start tonight against a weak Milwaukee lineup. Every batter in the projected lineup is above a 22 K% vs RHP since 2019. Still, $10K is a pretty steep price for Paddack. He’s $3.1K less on FanDuel though.

Wheeler struck out 10 of 22 Braves in his first start, but without much of a change in an arsenal that produced an 18.4 K% last year. He’s since swapped in a few more sliders for sinkers, which one would think would increase the strikeout rate, but he’s fanned just 10 of 53 with a 7.9 SwStr% over his last two starts. Additionally, his 90 mph EV is more than three mph above his career rate (86.7 mph) and his 38.8 GB% is well below not only last year (55.9%), but his career rate (47.2%). It seems like he may still be trying to figure out who he’s going to be in Philadelphia, but it’s questionable whether you’ll get enough Ks to justify the price tag. Ryu has been magnificent through three starts, earning all the money Toronto signed him for and more since his arrival. He’s struck out 19 of 73 (14.4 SwStr%), while walking two with as many home runs and Barrels (3.8%) on 52 batted balls (86.3 mph EV). His 56.9 GB% would be a career high. The projected Boston lineup averages a .354 wOBA and .237 ISO vs LHP since 2019. It’s a very tough matchup in a very tough park, but RHBs have just a .283 wOBA and .130 ISO vs Ryu since 2019. Batters on the current roster have just a .250 xwOBA and 31.1 K% against Ryu in 61 PAs. He can handle just about any lineup, but again, can he justify the price tag in this spot? Ohtani and Taillon share workload issues with both having not thrown many innings over the last two years. The former has already been reported to be limited to 75 pitches, while the latter has no business being priced this high against Atlanta, even without Acuna. Ohtani is just $7.5K on DraftKings, where he may still be a consideration against a high upside Texas lineup if he can get through five innings. If you’re paying up for pitching tonight though, it may just be best to stick with Burnes.

Velocity, Ground Balls and Strikeouts Up

The pitching duel of the night is expected to take place in San Diego where Brandon Woodruff faces Joe Musgrove. Woodruff’s core numbers look a lot like they did last year: 24.6 K-BB% (24.9 last year), 46.3 GB% (49.4% last year) and 96.8 mph fastball velocity (same as last year). The biggest difference so far has been a nearly five mph increase in average exit velocity (86.7 to 91.2), though he’s yet to allow a Barrel after 7.2% of contact last year. That’s not very predictive though. The biggest drawback for Woodruff was his 22.5 batters faced per start since last year and he’s failed to exceed 23 in three attempts this year. On a more positive note, he exceeded 25 batters faced and 100 pitches in three of his last four starts last year and after behind held below 80 pitches in each of his first two starts this year, he threw 95 last time out. We can be hopeful he’ll get a longer leash going forward.

Joe Musgrove allowed his first run (and home run) to his old team last time out, but that was it. He’s struck out 24 of 67 with a 14 SwStr% and walked just two (32.8 K-BB%). His velocity is up over a mile per hour and 23 of his 40 batted balls (88 mph EV, two Barrels) have been on the ground. The Padres have encouraged an increase in cutter usage (8.9% career to 25.1% this year), along with a drop in four-seam fastballs (34.9% to 12.5%) and sinkers (11.7% to 7%). He’ll be facing an ugly Milwaukee lineup this year. They have just a 76 wRC+ vs RHP and are currently without Christian Yelich. From a run prevention standpoint, four of eight projected starters for the Brewers are below a 90 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 with nobody above 121. Only one batter is above a .203 ISO as well. Four of eight batters are below a 90 wRC+ this season overall. Since 2019, Musgrove doesn’t have much of a split, so it’s not like the Brewers can find some kind of a platoon advantage either. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .282 to .315 wOBA and xwOBA against Mugrove and he’s very likely going to improve on those numbers this season. Musgrove isn’t the only strong pitching play tonight, but there’s a decent chance he’s the top one, which is likely why he’s also the only pitcher above $10K on either site.

A Cutter That Has Neutralized LHBs

It’s pretty easy to look at tonight’s small slate, see the Dodgers facing the Mariners and plug in whoever’s pitching for the road team without even really looking. But there may be more justification to starting Dustin May this year against everyone. May struck out just 20.8% of batters with an 8.5 SwStr% over his first 90.2 major league innings in 2019 and 20. Through two starts this year, he’s struck out 16 of 44 with a 14.1 SwStr%. None of his 27 battted balls have been barreled with 15 on the ground. What’s changed? He threw 81 cutters to LHBs last year and 132 to RHBs with a 23 Whiff%. Not bad. He’s thrown 24 of 26 to LHBs this year with a 68.8 Whiff%. Last year, the pitch had 23.8 inches of vertical drop (-1.5 vs avg). This year, it’s 26.5 inches (-5.5 vs avg). Dustin May entered the season with over a 100 point wOBA split between left-handed and right-handed batters, keeping the latter grounded on 60.1% of batted balls and the former on just 40.6%. He’s now used his cutter to strike out nine of the 24 left-handed batters he’s faced, essentially neutralizing them, while RHBs have continued to pound it into the ground (71.4%). On the other side of this matchup, players are going to certainly want to sprinkle in some RH Dodger bats, as batters from that side of the plate have a .341 wOBA (.333 xwOBA) against Sheffield in his career. However, this is one of the more negative run environments in the league and the Seattle bullpen has been better than expected so far this season (2.93 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.01 SIERA).

Mid-Range Arm in a High Upside Pitching Spot

Straight from Kevin’s forecast for Kansas City “Cold temps, winds blowing in from left at 10-15mph…”. Those with premium access to Weather Edge can see how unfavorable conditions are for bats here (although in a very small sample) in a park that generally suppresses power to begin with. While Josh Fleming is not much of a daily fantasy asset (17.9 K%, 9.2 SwStr% in 37.1 innings), he’s generated an 83.4 mph EV with 63.7% of his contact on the ground. Despite a projected lineup containing five batters above 115 wRC+ and six above a .200 ISO vs LHP since 2019, Kansas City bats may not have been that desirable in the first place, although the Tampa Bay bullpen has been banged up and closer Diego Castillo has pitched in back to back games.

Alternatively, RHBs have a .185 ISO (LHBs .166) against Danny Duffy since 2019 and six projected Rays are above a .190 ISO vs LHP over the same span. We may still want to consider an affordable Yandy Diaz (154 wRC+, .205 ISO) or Mike Brosseau (149 wRC+, .256 ISO) in the top half of the lineup tonight. However, Duffy is also in one of the highest upside spots on the board, as determined by opposing lineup strikeout rate. Potentially six batters above a 27 K% vs LHP since 2019! Duffy exhibited a velocity spike last time out that was his highest single game average since the middle of 2018. That increase, combined with 27% slider usage, enabled him to strike out six of 27 Angels. With a generally average strikeout and swinging strike rate, Duffy is a great secondary arm on DraftKings ($7K) in GPPs and even an alternative to higher priced arms on FanDuel ($8.3K).

Fly Ball Pitchers in a Power Friendly Park

Kevin Gausman has generated 51 batted balls over three starts and just 15 of them have been on the ground with six Barrels. While half of Chase Anderson’s contact has been on the ground this year, he’s only been above a 40 GB% once in his career. While expected weather conditions could turn this into more of a neutral run environment tonight, the park in Philadephia is a well-known booster for power bats. Having two fly ball oriented pitchers on the mound should only enhance the outlook for daily fantasy bats. In fact, the only other positive run environment on the board may be Washington tonight.

Gausman has no real split with batter from either side of the plate between a .300 and .316 wOBA and xwOBA against him since 2019. Bryce Harper is the obvious target here. He has a 130 wRC+ and .246 ISO vs RHP since 2019. This year, he has a projected lineup leading 164 wRC+ and 100 mph EV on fly balls and line drives overall. On the opposite side, Anderson has a well-known reverse split ((RHBs .368 wOBA, .355 xwOBA since 2019 – LHBs .300 wOBA, .289 xwOBA). However, In 114 career PAs, current Giants have just a .248 xwOBA (18.4 K%) against Anderson. Austin Slater is the only batter on the current roster who has homered against him. He’s currently projected to bat eighth, but considering the reverse split, perhaps he’ll move up. Unfortunately, the only four batters in the projected lineup for the Giants above a 100 wRC+ or .175 ISO since 2019 are all LH. If Tommy La Stella is in the leadoff spot, he would be the top bat here with a 140 wRC+ and .206 ISO vs RHP. He costs just $2.2K on FanDuel. Evan Longoria has a 165 wRC+ overall this year. Additional potential offensive enhancers tonight include the Phillies owning a bottom five defense by Outs Above Average (-4) and Defensive Runs Saved (-3) via Statcast and Giants’ closer Jake McGee currently on the COVID IL. One issue here could be ownership with each team tied for the third highest implied run line tonight at 4.25.

A Pitcher DFS Players Normally Don't Attack

Jack Flaherty is not generally a pitcher daily fantasy players like to target with bats, but circumstances dictate that this might be a good idea tonight. To start, Washington is likely the most positive run environment on the slate tonight. In fact, it’s possibly the only one outside of Philly. Next, LHBs have a .277 wOBA against Flaherty since 2019, which isn’t great, but Statcast improves that to a .305 xwOBA, which is almost league average. Flaherty has also had some control issues, without a walk rate below 9% outside of his 7.1 BB% in 2019. Of his 39 batted balls this year, five have been Barrels (12.8%) and only 12 have been on the ground (31.6%). Exit velocity is up on the whole this year, but he’s averaging 92.7 mph currently. Since 2020 started, his overall Zone% has dropped, as has the Swing% against him, while Z-Contact% has gone up. Next, you can add in the worst defense not only on the slate, but in the league via Statcast’s Runs Prevented (-6) this year.

The Washington lineup is a true stars and scrubs presentation. Among projected starters, four are bove a 115 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and the other four no higher than 80 and .151. The three LHBs projected to be in the Washington lineup are all among the strong performers against RHP, along with Trea Turner, and expected to comprise the top half of the order. We want Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell and particularly Juan Soto (164 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP since 2019) in this spot. At four implied runs, the Nationals sit amid the middle of the board tonight, which should prevent ownership from being too much of an issue on a six game slate. On the opposite side, LHBs project well against Joe Ross too (.368 wOBA, .361 xwOBA since 2019). The Cardinals are more balanced than in the past with four LHBs projected, none above a 100 wRC+ or .182 ISO vs RHP since 2019 however. Dylan Carlson does have a 137 wRC+ overall this year though. These two teams also both have bottom 10 bullpens this year, each with a 4.86 xFIP without a single estimator below four.

Likely Lineup Absences Create Pitcher Value

On the surface, Yusei Kikuchi against the Astros looks like a terrible matchup and hopefully for those reading, most daily fantasy players will stop there. After all, Kikuchi has an ERA and FIP above five over in 220.2 innings with 42 HRs and 50 Barrels surrendered among 706 batted balls. But if you dig a little deeper, you’ll find a two mile per hour velocity increase last year that’s sustained through two starts this year. Now, he didn’t do much with that velocity, as his ERA remained above five, but his strikeout rate climbed from 16.1% to 24.2%. The culprit was simply a 59.9 LOB%. His worst estimator was a 4.34 SIERA. He’s started his 2021 by striking out 16 of 49, though with just a 9.3 SwStr%. This still may not be enough considering that the Houston lineup is generally full of potent, contact prone bats, but on top of George Springer being gone this year, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordano Alvarez all hit the IL with COVID concerns this week. Should they remain out tonight, Kikuchi prospectively faces a lineup with just one batter above a .200 ISO vs LHP since 2019 and while there still aren’t a lot of strikeouts in this makeshift lineup, the bottom three spots all exceed 25% against lefties over the same time span. With Jacob deGrom officially off the board tonight and other top priced pitchers having major concerns, Yusei Kikuchi could have some unforeseen value in an unlikely spot tonight. He costs less than $9K on FanDuel and only $7.2K on DraftKings.

Big Time Power Against The Worst Platoon Split

According to pitcher splits, the most advantageous spot on the board may be in favor of LH Texas bats tonight. Jorge Lopez has generated a 17.8 HR/FB, 9.5% Barrels/BBE and 90 mph EV overall in his career, but when it comes to batters with the platoon advantage, things have been even more destructive. From that side of the plate, hitters have a .397 wOBA that’s backed by a .393 xwOBA. The projected lineup for the Rangers doesn’t include a lot of potency from either side of the plate. In fact, the number of strikeouts in that lineup makes this the highest spot on the board for pitchers. However, the nature of daily fantasy scoring doesn’t preclude both sides of a matchup being advantageous if there are enough strikeouts and home runs involved. Two batters players will want to look at here are Joey Gallo (115 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Nate Lowe (114 wRC+, .218 ISO). Each costs exactly $3.1K on FanDuel and are reasonably priced on DraftKings for the upside. With both players exceeding a 28 K% against RHP over the same span, they could help fill up both sides of the score card tonight.

Three HRs in 19 PAs Against Tonight's Opponent

Batter vs Pitcher matchups are very polarizing in the daily fantasy community. A lot of the numbers that fall into this category are generally just noise, but when a batter starts piling up plate appearances against a certain pitcher with either a lot of hard contact or none at all, it may be something to pay attention too. Filtering Baseball Savant’s Daily Matchup page for at least 15 PAs and then looking at only HRs and xwOBA, we find that Nelson Cruz has done some damage against Andrew Heaney. In 19 PAs, Cruz has homered three times with a .395 xwOBA. Makes a lot of sense, right? Heaney has long had issues with hard contact in the air (38.7 GB%, 15.2 HR/FB career) and Cruz has made a career out of punishing left-handed pitching. In fact, he has a 224 wRC+ and ridiculous .444 ISO against LHPs since 2019 and has started this year off hot overall (99.4 mph EV on fly balls and line drives, 25.8% Barrels/BBE). In fact, with Coors now officially off the board, Cruz may be the top bat on the slate overall. We don’t have to make this a one off though. Byron Buxton (151 wRC+, .269 ISO), Mitch Garver (176 wRC+, .352 ISO), Josh Donaldson (120 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Miguel Sano (120 wRC+, .291 ISO) have all destroyed southpaw offerings as well since 2019. Maikel Franco, Corey Dickerson, Bryce Harper and David Peralta are the only other batters with multiple HRs in their individual pitcher matchups tonight.

Attacking The Worst Bullpen In The League

Bullpens are generally an under-considered part of daily fantasy, but one you might want to pay attention to is out in Oakland tonight. Jose Urena has faced just 37 batters through two starts and more than 23 just once in five times out last year. He’s a pretty solid bet to not go much further than twice through the lineup tonight and while his 90.2 mph EV is generally enough incentive to attack, especially with LHBs (.398 wOBA vs Urena since 2019), what’s behind him makes this spot even more appetizing. The Tigers currently own the worst bullpen in the majors this season. With a 7.20 ERA, 6.25 FIP, 5.31 FIP and 4.54 SIERA, it all averages out to 6.06 with no other bullpen averaging worse than 5.29 this season. Oakland is generally one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the league and while that doesn’t change tonight, weather conditions around the country create a situation where positive run environments are a scarcity tonight. Matt Olson (132 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since 2019) looks like a great choice to lead an A’s stack tonight. He’s averaging 100.1 mph on his fly balls and line drives this year and has barreled 15.4% of his contact. Incidentally, the top bullpens on the board belong to the Yankees (2.43) and Padres (2.46), who will be pitching the majority of their games out of the pen tonight, but may be spots to avoid attacking anyway.

Big Power & Potentially Tonight's Top Value

(Important Note: Aristides Aquino has gone on the IL and will NOT play tonight.) In Cincinnati tonight, we have a projected lineup with big time power (four above a .230 ISO vs LHP since 2019) facing a young pitcher who struggles to miss bats and with his control (11.5 BB%, 3.2 K-BB in 48.1 major league innings) in Logan Allen. These deficiencies have driven his wOBA and xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate above .350. Although Allen does generate ground balls, it’s been a bit below 50% against the 168 RHBs he’s faced, giving this Reds’ offense quite a bit of value tonight. This team has started hot out of the gate with six of eight projected starters above a 110 wRC+ overall this season. Nick Castellanos has a 97.7 mph EV on fly balls and line drives right now, but we have Aristides Aquino projected to bat sixth. Aquino has a career .276 ISO vs LHP and costs $2.6K or less on either site tonight. That potentially makes him tonight’s top value on the board. Aquino hasn’t seen a lot of work this year, but does have a 156 wRC+ due to barreling three of his eight batted balls. The Cincinnati offense has a 4.66 implied run line that’s currently sixth best on the board.

The Highest Upside Pitching Spots on Friday Night

The highest upside spot on the board tonight (as determined by average batters faced per start and opposing projected lineup strikeout rate without regard to a pitcher’s own ability) belongs to…Jorge Lopez on Friday night. The potential Texas lineup finds six strikeout rates above 25% vs RHP since 2019. Lopez is a pitcher we generally want no part of due to his tendency towards the long ball (career 17.8 HR/FB, 9.5% Barrels/BBE), but with a park upgrade and 55.6 GB% so far in such a strong spot at just $6K on DraftKings, perhaps he’s an acceptable GPP lottery ticket behind deGrom.

Spot number two belongs to Jose Urquidy, who may see five Mariners above a 25 K% in Seattle. He still may be priced too high for comfort on DraftKings ($10.1K), but is a full $3K less on FanDuel where it might not be a terrible idea to pay down if you’re worried about deGrom’s ownership tonight. An under the radar name might be J.T. Brubaker, who carries a modest 23.5 K% and 11.3 SwStr% since the start of last season, but finds himself in Milwaukee against a lineup that may not have a batter below a 22.7 K% vs RHP and that’s even projecting Christian Yelich (back) to return. Brubaker is $7.5K or less on either site. Mike Foltynewicz and Mike Minor also find themselves in high upside spots against the Orioles and Blue Jays respectively (yes, that Toronto lineup has power, but a lot of strikeouts in it), but the former has just a 5.9 SwStr% so far this year, while the latter has major weather concerns, though he is below $7K on either site.

The Top Pitcher in the Worst Park

(Important Note: The Mets & Rockies have been PPD. Jacob deGrom will NOT pitch tonight.) Back in the glory days, we’d take a look at tonight’s highest priced arms, see Jacob deGrom at Coors and Max Scherzer at home against…well, anyone and that would be it. Problem easily solved, but circumstances and conditions have dictated that it’s still likely a no contest, but very likely in the other direction.

Scherzer has a 17.7 SwStr% that’s second best on the board on Friday night with a 29.5 K-BB%. The problem has come when batters make contact, as he’s generated more Barrels (six) than ground balls (five). His velocity is also down a mile and a half per hour. In fact, he only had one game with a lower average exit velocity last year than either game this year. Meanwhile, deGrom is sitting on a 22.1 SwStr% that would be an average strikeout rate on today’s board and Coors is no longer an immediate cross off for opposing daily fantasy pitchers. To start with, the Rockies project a lineup that includes just two batters above a 100 wRC+ and only three below a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Then we can look at a weather forecast which predicts freezing temperatures and snow showers (though Kevin thinks they’ll still play) that should take some of the sting out of Coors. Jacob deGrom is not only your top pitcher on Friday night, but potentially still the top value on either site at $11K.

Additional high end options also have key concerns, as Walker Buehler has just eight strikeouts with a 6.1 SwStr% through two starts. He’s allowed four Barrels and his velocity is down over a mile per hour. He also has to face the San Diego offense with Fernando Tatis Jr. back. Steven Matz is not only a great shock as the third highest priced pitcher on FanDuel, but the forecast projects this game as the most likely to not play in Kansas City. Jose Urquidy is also a pitcher who exceeds $10K on DraftKings, but does not belong that far north in the spectrum. He does find himself in a high upside spot in Seattle against a projected lineup with just four players south of a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. As always, ownership projections should play a key part in decision making, but deGrom is not a pitcher to be avoided at Coors tonight.

Potential Top Value Against Extreme Fly Ball Pitcher

Tarik Skubal is a bit raw, but had enormous minor league strikeout rates. Striking out just four of 21 Indians in his season debut was disappointing, but the 6.9 SwStr% was even more so. While only two of 15 batted balls were on the ground, none were barreled with an 86.5 mph EV. He followed that up (again vs Cleveland) with three strikeouts, three walks and three home runs over four innings and 20 batters. Four out of 14 batted balls were barreled. His velocity has been down a bit as well. In 41.1 major league innings he has just a 24.1 GB%. That’s 27 ground balls versus 13 Barrels!! If you’re going to be a fly ball pitcher, Oakland may be the best park in which to do so, though maybe not as an opposing pitcher. This offense is well supplemented in RH power. Five batters in the projected lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ and .185 ISO vs LHP since 2019 and that even includes Matt Olson. Skubal has dominated LHBs, however (.154 wOBA, .209 xwOBA). RHBs have punished him to the tune of a .396 wOBA (.370 xwOBA). While Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman and maybe even Sean Murphy are fairly easy plays here, Stephen Piscotty (126 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP) may be one of the top values on the board at $2.5K or less on either site. An added bonus, the Tigers may have the worst bullpen in the majors (6.65 ERA, 5.94 FIP).

Wildcard Pitcher In a High Upside Spot

Aside from weather conditions and park factors, there is not a lot to like in terms of pitching choices tonight. There’s one clear top arm (Julio Urias), who clears every other pitcher by more than $1K on either site. Then there’s a ridiculously priced Rich Hill on DraftKings ($9K) and nobody else above $8.1K on either site. On the one hand, Urias has an 18 K% and 4.72 SIERA through two starts. On the other, he has a 12.1 SwStr% and has been an exceptional contact manager (28.6% 95+ mph EV since 2020). The most interesting piece of information might be that Urias has faced 25 batters in each of his two starts, a number he didn’t reach once in 2020. He threw just 79 pitches first time out and was very efficient, but 95 last time out.

Considering everyone is going to be on Urias and DraftKings players also need a secondary, the question is: where do you go next? Patrick Corbin would be the logical choice, but has shown some concerning traits (namely velocity and inefficiency against RHBs) since last season. Sean Manaea will also likely be highly owned, doesn’t have a ton of upside and is also facing a solid lineup against LHP that just torched Houston pitching. Let’s take a look at tonight’s lottery ticket: Jordan Lyles. He struck out one of 19 Padres with a 6.4 SwStr% and two walks his second time out, but eight of 23 Royals in his season debut (15.8 SwStr%) without a walk his first time out and his velocity has been up a bit both times. Lyles may be the most volatile pitcher on the slate, but that may be what we want here. He could get blown up, but he’s also facing a lineup that includes six batters with at least a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019 via PlateIQ and four above 28%. LineupHQ is currently projecting Lyles for single digit ownership, but he may just be the wild card you need in GPPs tonight.