DFS Alerts
RHBs Have Smashed This Pitcher (.376 wOBA) Since 2020
Patrick Corbin’s velocity was down last year and led to his worst season since prior to breaking out in Arizona. In his first start, he struck out five of 21 Dodgers with a 12.5 SwStr%, but also walked three with only one fewer Barrel (three) than ground balls (four). And his velocity sat exactly what it was last year (90.4 mph). This is likely to remain an issue. The Arizona lineup projects to lean extremely right-handed. Batters from that side have a .319 wOBA/.332 xwOBA against Corbin since 2019. Shorten the sample to 2020 on and it’s a .376 wOBA with a .197 ISO. Four of the RHBs (Eduardo Escobar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carson Kelly and Nick Ahmed) are above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO against LHP since 2019. The recommendation would be to stack right-handed Diamondbacks. While players are likely to sprinkle in a little bit of everything on such a small slate, Arizona bats could go under-owned due to Corbin’s pre-2020 reputation. They’re only implied for three and a half runs. We may want to be over-weight on them tonight in GPPs.
Kyle Hendricks (illness) scratched Tuesday; Alec Mills will start in his place
Hendricks is reportedly dealing with an illness and won’t make his previously scheduled start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, and he’ll be replaced on the mound by Alec Mills, who is also a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump shouldn’t alter the projections of the Milwaukee bats in any significant fashion. However, it’s still recommended to check out the updated projections in LineupHQ and verify any potential lineup changes on the Starting Lineups page prior to submitting daily fantasy lineups this evening.
As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter Other tagged players: Alec Mills
Is Paying Up For Pitching Contrarian Tonight?
There is a staggering amount of underpriced pitching, especially on DraftKings tonight. Players can find Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kyle Hendricks, Brandon Woodruff, Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez, Kevin Gausman and Max Fried all below $8K. Meanwhile, Lucas Giolito, Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer are all in the $10K range. If these pitchers were more accurately priced, it might make for some more difficult decisions, but these prices should tempt a lot of plays to pay down for arms tonight. Perhaps paying up for could even be a bit more contrarian than we’d usually expect. Interestingly, each of the big three have struggled with contact issues this year, as in it’s been fairly hard when allowed. It’s a good thing then, that they rarely allow it. All three exceed a 39 K% this year. While Bauer has the top matchup against the Rockies, some may wonder if there might be repercussions from MLB’s ball doctoring investigation. That’s not likely to hinder him tonight. Bieber has the higher upside in than Giolito in terms of opposing strikeout rates, but consider that Giolito has a reverse split with LHBs below a .260 wOBA and xwOBA against him since 2019 and is the cheaper of the two. He may be the play here if Cleveland loads up on LHBs as they’re expected too. Players can even decide to pay up for one arm and then go with Kyle Gibson in a high upside spot in Tampa Bay with enough salary space left for big bats. The key point is to make sure to look at ownership projections in LineupHQ and act accordingly in GPPs without any high priced pitchers likely to have a commanding presence in lineups tonight.
Open Roof Could Cause Problems For Home Run Prone Pitcher
The obvious move is to attack Matt Boyd today. He’s been an extremely home run prone pitcher with severe issues against RHBs (.345 wOBA, though just a .317 xwOBA since 2019). He has held LHBs below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA over that span though. Right handed Houston bats appear to be among the top bats on the slate, especially with the roof being open tonight (it would be a smart gaming move just to do so because Boyd is pitching). Alex Bregman has 198 wRC+ and .364 ISO against southpaws since 2019. One caveat here is that Boyd has yet to allow a HR this year and may have more to gain than any starter in the league from the ball being deadened a bit. However, that’s no reason to avoid Houston bats here, especially with possibly the worst bullpen in baseball backing Boyd.
An Out of Box Stacking Idea
With tonight’s slate mostly comprised of top end of the rotation arms, it’s likely that some GPPs are going to be won with some unconventional stacks. One idea might include the Marlins. Sure they’re only implied for three and a half runs and are facing Max Fried, but there are a few factors in Miami’s favor. Fried usually generates lots of ground balls with a marginal strikeout rate, but he’s been below 40% in each of his first two starts. The Marlins can load up on a predominantly RH lineup and Fried has been only average against RHBs (.323 wOBA, .298 xwOBA). In fact, the current Miami roster has a .399 xwOBA against him over 71 PAs via Baseball Savant. Next, Atlanta is one of the more positive (if not the most positive) run environments on the slate. Lastly, Marlins are very cheap tonight. They’re all below $3K on FanDuel and only Starling Marte is above $3.6K on DraftKings. Miami bats pave the way toward high priced pitching.
Unexpected Upside with Lowest Price On The Board
Kyle Gibson faced eight Royals and recorded a single out on Opening Day. It was a strikeout and he had a 21.9 SwStr%, but he also walked three. His velocity was actually up nearly two miles per hour. Redemption in his second start, as he shut out the Blue Jays over six innings, striking out eight (14.6 SwStr%). None of his 19 batted balls have been barreled despite a 91.4 mph EV and he sustained velocity increase in his second start. It also looks like he’s using his cutter quite a bit more. Tonight he takes on a competent Tampa Bay offense (six of nine projected batters 105 wRC+ or better vs RHP since 2019, five of nine above a 120 wRC+ overall this year), but one with just marginal power and lots of strikeouts. If you look at PlateIQ, seven of nine projected batters are above a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Gibson has trouble with batters from either side of the plate (between a .325 to .360 wOBA and xwOBA) and the Rays have a below average bullpen, so don’t write off Rays’ bats either. However, Gibson carries the lowest cost on the board on DraftKings, where he can make for the perfect secondary arm with more upside than usual in this spot.
Don't Overlook This Lefty At Low Cost
Hyun-Jin Ryu has struck out 12 of 49 batters, walking just two with an impressive 15.4 SwStr%. More than half his contact (54.3%) has been on the ground with two Barrels (5.6%) and an 86 mph EV. In other words, he’s done exactly what you’ve come to expect from him the last few years. The Yankees were his Opening Day victims and after being shut down by Robbie Ray, you feel a bit more confident about Ryu’s chances here. This lineup remains loaded with power. Only one projected batter (Aaron Hicks) below a .197 ISO vs LHP since 2019. However, there are also four below a 100 wRC+ against southpaws over that same time span and four below a 65 wRC+ overall this season (10 PA min.). Ryu has handled RHBs well since 2019 as well (.281 wOBA/.286 xwOBA). The mind blowing part here is that Ryu is just $8K on either site. This is a slate loaded with high end pitching, which should keep Ryu’s ownership reasonable. Let ownership projections be your guide, but don’t overlook him at this price.
Carlos Rodon (illness) scratched Monday; Dallas Keuchel will start in his place
Rodon is reportedly dealing with an upset stomach and won’t make his previously scheduled start in Monday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians, and he’ll be replaced on the mound by Dallas Keuchel, who is also a left-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump shouldn’t alter the projections of the Cleveland bats in any significant fashion. However, it’s still recommended to check out the updated projections in LineupHQ and verify any potential lineup changes on the Starting Lineups page prior to submitting daily fantasy lineups this evening.
As reported by: the Chicago White Sox via Twitter Other tagged players: Dallas Keuchel Large Drop in Velocity First Time Out
Aaron Sanchez allowed just one run over six Innings without a walk or homer against the Padres in his first action since 2019. He struck out just four with an 8.1 SwStr%, but also failed to generate a single Barrel on 16 batted balls (87.6 mph EV) with 11 of them on the ground. The concern would be a three mile per hour drop in velocity, along with a career 8.4 K-BB% over nearly 600 innings. This is a lineup loaded with power that will play down a bit outside of Cincinnati, but also only one or two below average hitters by wRC+ as well against RHP. While he missed last season, since 2019, Sanchez has virtually no split with batters from either side of the plate within two points of a .350 wOBA. Seven of the eight batters in the lineup for the Reds tonight are above a 117 wRC+ overall this season. In a west coast game in a park that did not play as pitcher friendly last season as it had in the past, this could be a sneaky spot to jump on some under-valued bats against a pitcher with a large drop in velocity first time out. Jesse Winker in the leadoff spot (135 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is moderately priced on either site ($4.3K DK, $3.1K FD).
Cheap Pop at the Top of the Order
Madison Bumgarner showed increased velocity in his first start, but dipped back down again in Colorado last time out. It was still above last year’s levels, but below the previous year in San Francisco. He’s struck out 10 and walked five of 49 batters, but with a 13.2 SwStr%. While he’s only allowed a single Barrel (3.1%), his exit velocity has averaged 93.4 mph with just a 25.8 GB%. If we consider him somewhere between 2020 and 2019, that’s still a pitcher an offense with a lot of right handed power can handle. The A’s lose the DH here, but that shouldn’t remove any potent RH bats from the lineup. Since 2019, RHBs have a .337 wOBA (.357 xwOBA) against Bumgarner. The A’s project to line up almost entirely RH tonight. The top of this order has to be heavily figured into the plans of daily fantasy players tonight. Not only are Mark Canha (133 wRC+, .223 ISO vs LHP since 2019) and Ramon Laureano (111 wRC+, .203 ISO) dangerous bats against Bumgarner, but they’re cheap too. Neither is above $4K on DraftKIngs and Canha is below $3K on FanDuel.
Stack Up Against These Horrible Peripherals
Erick Fedde is below a 3 K-BB% over his last 130 innings with an 89.4 mph EV, but a ground ball rate above 50% is his only saving grace. Six of the 14 Braves he faced in his first start scored (three walks). He generated just two swings and misses. This is a great spot to stack Cardinals. They have an implied run line near five, which is among the top five for the day, but they shouldn’t be too over-exposed in lineups. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .335 wOBA and .360 xwOBA against Fedde since 2019. Stacking is definitely the way to go here because we’re expecting lots of traffic on the bases to be moved along by an efficient St Louis lineup rather than a lot of home runs. Remember, Fedde is a ground ball pitcher with a reasonable exit velocity in a power suppressing park, but a terrible K-BB%. Meanwhile, Nolan Arenado (.247 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup above a .205 ISO against RHP since 2019 and we know where he accumulated those stats. Stack up your Cardinals against Erick Fedde.
A Rising Pitcher & Not As Bad a Spot As It Seems
Sandy Alcantara allowed just two hits (no Barrels) and struck out seven of 23 batters in his first start. After increasing his strikeout rate to league average last year (22.7%) and increased it even further this spring, Sandy Alcantara allowed just two hits (no Barrels) and struck out seven of 23 batters in his first start. In his second, he whiffed 10 of 25 Cardinals. He has yet to allow a Barrel among 26 batted balls with half his contact on the ground. His velocity (97.4) is up a mile per hour from last year and nearly a quarter of his pitches have been changeups (10% last year). While the Braves were one of the top offenses against RHP in baseball last year, they have just a 78 wRC+ against them this year. Five batters in tonight’s projected lineup for Atlanta are below a 50 wRC+ overall this year and while LHBs have a 50 wOBA point edge on Alcantara since 2019, the Braves will likely only have two of them in the lineup. That said, this is still a very dangerous lineup with none of the players with more than 30 PAs against RHP since 2019 below a .170 ISO against them over that span. If you don’t want to pay more than $9.5K for your pitcher tonight ($8.5K on DraftKings), Alcantara is a reasonable and potentially lower owned alternative.
Low End Pitcher in a High Upside Spot
Dane Dunning was the major get for the Rangers in the Lance Lynn trade. A marginal prospect, he had a very respectable six start debut last season with a 15.5 K-BB% and 3.97 ERA that was fairly close to all of his estimators. His .239 BABIP was a bit too low, but maybe his 66.9 LOB% was too. The batted ball profile and exit velocities were both fairly average. He has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. His first start for the Rangers was encouraging. He struck out six of 18 Blue Jays (12.9 SwStr%) without a walk and one Barrel (a HR) on 12 BBE (90 mph EV). It looks like his new coaching staff is pushing him in a different direction: 71.4% of his pitches were sinkers without any four seam fastballs (20.8% last year). This may lead to more ground balls with fewer strikeouts going forward. This is not a concern we should have against the Rays. Five of nine batters in tonight’s projected lineup for Tampa Bay exceed a 28 K% vs RHP since 2019. This is not a lineup without dangerous spots, though only two batters exceed a .200 ISO and three are below an 85 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019. In addition, the Rays generally prefer to balance their lineup and RHBs are below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA against Dunning in his career so far. The dome is also a negative run environment. The largest concern here is that Dunning may not be a high volume pitcher. He’s faced an average of 20 batters per start over his eight outings. However, if a cheap secondary arm is necessary on DraftKings tonight, Dunning is worth a shot in a high upside spot.
High Upside Pitcher in a High Upside Spot
Tyler Glasnow was extremely sharp in his first start in Miami. He struck out six of 19 batters without a walk and only one hit allowed (no Barrels, 82.1 mph EV), while 61.5% of his contact was on the ground. He averaged 97.9 mph on his fastball. His second start was even sharper, striking out nine Red Sox with two walks and one run over six innings at Fenway. He still hasn’t allowed a single Barrel yet and his exit velocity is just 84.6 mph with half his contact on the ground. The velocity dipped slightly in his second start, but remained above 97 mph on average. Last year, Glasnow threw an 82 mph curveball 34.8% of the time without any sliders. This year, he’s throwing an 84 mph curveball just 10.3% of the time and an 88 mph slider 35% of the time. While the curveball still has a larger whiff rate (50% to 33%), the new pitch does have a wOBA and xwOBA under .200 so far. Perhaps the new look is making him less predictable and home run prone. Only enhancing Glasnow’s outlook is a matchup against the Rangers at home. In a negative run environment, he’ll face a projected lineup with five batters above a 27 K% against RHP since last season, with four batters below a .100 ISO and with five batters below a .300 wOBA vs RHP over that span as well. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA against Glasnow since 2019. Glasnow is one of three high end pitchers tonight and finds himself in the highest upside spot. Gerrit Cole will have to take on a contact prone and dangerous Blue Jays’ offense and while Zach Grienke has a great matchup against the Tigers, we can’t project him for the same strikeout upside as Glasnow.
Look For This Southpaw To Get Punished In His Season Debut
Robbie Ray is the lone pitcher on the card seeing his first action of the season. He’s gone from a pitcher with an elite strikeout rate and double digit walk rate, who allowed too much hard contact in the air to a pitcher with a very strong strikeout rate and even worse walk rate, who allowed even more hard contact in the air. It should not surprise you to hear that this is not a great career trajectory. The Yankees can stack a lineup almost entirely RH and batters from that side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Ray since 2019. Though Aaron Hicks is the only batter in the projected lineup below a .199 ISO against LHP since 2019, Aaron Judge is the Yankee you most want in your lineups tonight. He’s sitting on a 189 wRC+, .449 xwOBA, .331 ISO and 103.8 mph EV on fly balls andn line drives against southpaws since 2019. No offense has a higher implied run line than the Yankees currently (5.28). While we may have light workload expectations for Ray either due to his March injury or because the Yankees simply knock him into next week, this lineup is full of hitters who handle same-handed pitchers just as well if not better than southpaws.