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The majority of the attention will go to Coors Field tonight with expensive bats standing out on both sides of the Red Sox-Rockies game. This will leave some of the other high end bats at lower than deserved ownership. The Twins will go into Chicago to face Ross Detwiler and his low strikeouts along with their weak bullpen. Detwiler’s ground balls are no match for the 48% fly balls and 63% hard hits of Nelson Cruz against lefties, or the 54% fly balls and 55% hard hits from Mitch Garver. Add in the 56% hard hits and .341 ISO from Miguel Sano, and we have three righties with huge upside who may be somewhat overlooked due to their salaries on this slate.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver
Adrian Houser is simply too cheap on DraftKings
$5K for a guy with strikeout upside against a right-handed heavy lineup? Sign me up. Houser has been stretched out after working on a fairly strict pitch count earlier in the summer, but DraftKings hasn’t quite caught up to his emergence. He’s thrown no fewer than 89 pitches in his last four outings and has averaged north of a strikeout per inning in the month of August. He’s also been more dominant against RHBs with a 2.94 xFIP, although his strikeout rate is actually a shade higher against lefties. Houser owns a 66.7% GB rate against right-handers which plays a large role in him allowing just a 0.94 HR/9 rate against RHBs. He’s a viable target in any format Tuesday night.
Luis Castillo's strikeouts have dropped over his last two starts, but he's got the best draw on the board tonight
The strikeouts haven’t eluded him for long, but Castillo has had back-to-back starts with four or fewer Ks. Only one of those outings was a down performance (8 earned in 4 1/3 against STL), and Castillo should get back to his ways tonight against a Marlins lineup that strikes out plenty and doesn’t have any semblance of power. Given the discount he provides off guys like Verlander, Giolito and Corbin, Castillo could very well end up as the best $/point play among the high-end pitching options.
Low Owned Value Play
The Brewers really let me down yesterday, but Cory Spangenberg looked really good at the plate. After struggling to start the season, Spangenberg worked his way back to the Majors by crushing the ball in AAA. He hit .344 with a .373 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ in 82 games in AAA. Being sent back down was big for him, and I really think he’s worth looking at until they increase his price. It also doesn’t hurt that Mikolas has a .371 wOBA with a 46.7% hard-hit rate against lefties this season.
Why Is He So Cheap
If I didn’t like Smyly, I’d be all-in on Houser tonight. He’s the clear-cut top SP2 option on this slate for me. The Cardinals should only have three lefties, and those lefties have a combined .161 ISO with a .324 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. With six potential righties, Houser draws one of the best matchups on the slate. He has a .259 wOBA with a .106 ISO and a 23.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He’s also a groundball pitcher, which could help him limit the damage in this matchup.
Below Average Strikeout Pitcher
Washington draws one of the best matchups on the slate, and Matt Adams is too cheap on FanDuel. Adams has a .274 ISO with a 41.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. His biggest issue is strikeouts, and Brooks has a below average strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. He also has a .389 wOBA with a .276 ISO and a 40.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season.
Seven Of The Last Ten Starts
I don’t like the price for Samardzija on DraftKings, but I do like the price on FanDuel. On FanDuel, I won’t be paying down much, but I do think he’s a good tournament option. He has a quality start in seven of the last ten games. Shark has a 49.2% fly ball rate with a 40.8% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. I worry about the lefties in this lineup, but I’m hoping the ballpark can help him post another quality start tonight.
It's All About The Price Tag
I never feel good about taking a pitcher I know is average, but with the pricing on this slate, I know I’m going to play some Tyler Beede. He gets the benefit of pitching at home, and with all the lefties in this lineup, this is a below average ballpark for left-handed power. Beede has a 11.7% swinging strike rate with a 21.2% strikeout rate on the season. He’s likely going to give up a few runs here, I’m hoping he can pick up five to six strikeouts in the process.
Hopefully He Pitches 90+ Pitches
After working out of the bullpen a week ago, I’m a little gun shy on how many pitches we’ll actually see from Dustin May tonight. He’s really cheap on FanDuel and Yahoo, which makes me overlook the pitch count concerns. The Padres lineup is not as strong as it was earlier this season, and with the injuries/trades, they’re a team I’m okay with picking on. They have a 23.5% strikeout rate and a .318 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Cheap Power And Speed
Josh Rojas hit 15 home runs with 20 stolen bases in 61 AAA games this season. He’s really cheap across the industry and should be in the lineup for Arizona. Hopefully he doesn’t become too popular in this matchup. Beede has a .389 wOBA with a .237 ISO and a 16.7% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. If he’s able to get on base, he could have some serious upside at this price point.
Sonny Gray has the top strikeout rate on the board (29.2%) by nearly six points
Sonny Gray is the unquestioned top pitcher on the board in the most pitcher friendly park (though most environments lean negative tonight), which makes the biggest questions ones of cost and ownership. It’s not just that Gray tops the board with a 29.2 K%, it’s that the only other pitcher that’s within six points (Pablo Lopez (23.3%) hasn’t pitched in a major league game in quite a while. His 2.92 ERA may be a run below his 3.90 SIERA, but no other pitcher on the board is below a four SIERA. His 3.09 DRA is also best on the board and only one of three below four. He also tops the board with a 52.4 GB% and .282 xwOBA. Not only is the park extremely favorable, but the Marlins have a 76 wRC+ and 18.4 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Their 11 HR/FB against righties is the worst split on the board. As for cost, Gray costs more than $11K, when only one other pitcher costs more than $9.1K on either site. It may be worth bypassing him on FanDuel in favor of potentially more volatile arms, at least on GPPs. On DraftKings, an $11.2K price tag may not make him such a great value, but the ability to pair him with someone like Joe Musgrove for $6K makes him a lot easier to fit into lineups. It’s also likely to place him in near half of tonight’s lineups (Projected Ownership is available to premium subscribers).
Pablo Lopez should not have workload concerns and faces a lineup lacking quality LHBs
Pablo Lopez has struck out 10 of 39 AAA batters in two rehab starts, allowing two ERs in 9.1 IP, working through 25 batters last time out. This gives us some confidence to expect a reasonable workload despite not pitching in the majors since mid-June. His 23.3 K%, 4.09 SIERA, 3.34 DRA and .291 xwOBA are all second best marks on the board tonight. He also pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. He’s allowed just 10 runs total in seven home starts this year. While the Reds have had a lot of turnover and are actually an above average offense against RHP since the break by wRC+ (108), the same is not true by peripherals (16.2 K-BB%). Cincinnati is also without key left-handed bats with Winker & Votto ILed. This is significant because this is now a lineup lacking quality and quantity from that side of the plate and Lopez has a large platoon split. RHBs have just a .251 wOBA (.263 xwOBA) against him over the last calendar year. Lopez is a quality arm at the fifth lowest price tag on DraftKings ($7.4) in a favorable return spot.
Gio Gonzalez has a SIERA (4.89) and DRA (4.40) much higher than his ERA (3.64)
Considering a potential washout in Kansas City and likely pitcher friendly conditions in Philadelphia, Milwaukee may easily be the most positive run environment on the board without another park coming even close tonight. This means players need to look at both offenses very seriously tonight. While the Brewers are currently the top offense on the board, the Cardinals check in at a 4.66 implied run line that places them fourth. While Gio Gonzalez has been about average vs RHBs over the last calendar year (.316 wOBA, .336 xwOBA), the advantage for the Cardinals here is that Gio’s 3.64 ERA is well below his 4.89 SIERA and 4.40 DRA, while his .344 xwOBA is 30 points worse than his actual results. A .361 xwOBA over the last 30 days is 40 points worse. His ground ball rate is down to 40.2% this year, which has resulted in 8.4% Barrels/BBE. While he did strike out six Brewers in five innings with just one run in his last start, he did walk four and the advantage generally goes to the offense seeing a pitcher for the second straight outing. Paul Goldschmidt (121 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is unquestionably your top overall bat here. He has a 52% hard hit rate over the last week and is not even that expensive ($4.5K DK, $3.7K FD). Tommy Edman (113 wRC+, .200 ISO) bats second, Marcell Ozuna (99 wRC+, .278 ISO) is in the cleanup spot, and Dexter Fowler (100 wRC+, .176 ISO) should have some value at the top of the order.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler, Tommy Edman, Gio Gonzalez Adam Wainwright has struggled against LHBs (.363 wOBA last calendar year)
Adam Wainwright has been an average pitcher by ERA (4.51), estimators (4.64 SIERA, 4.60 DRA) and xwOBA (.325), though a 22% strikeout rate may be unsustainable with a just a 7.6 SwStr%. He generated a 22.1 K% last season with a swinging strike rate 1.5 points higher, but has otherwise been below 20% the three previous seasons with a swinging strike rate in the same range as his mark this year and his 2.37 career K/SwStr is much superior to his 2.89 mark this year. Should his strikeout rate drop, estimators would likely climb to somewhere around five. There are certainly several other factors working in favor of the Milwaukee offense also tonight. Their 5.34 implied run line is now tops on the board and has been increasing in recent hours. Wainwright will experience a significant downward park shift tonight and will be facing the Brewers for the second consecutive outing, walking four and allowing five runs in five innings with just two strikeouts at home last time out. In fact, considering weather expectations among the non-west coast or dome games, there may be no other run environment that comes close to Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers also have an abundance of left-handed power in their lineup, which should spell trouble for Wainwright as well. Over the last calendar year, batters from that side of the plate own a .363 wOBA (.356 xwOBA) against him. Christian Yelich (211 wRC+, .408 ISO last calendar year) is easily tonight’s top bat with Yasmani Grandal (118 wRC+, .202 ISO) the top catcher. Mike Moustakas (116 wRC+, .262 ISO) and Eric Thames (124 wRC+, .264 ISO) have been similarly potent with the platoon advantage.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames, Adam Wainwright Get Something Cheap
This is a strange slate tonight, with one expensive pitcher and not much separation between all the high end bats. One way to make lineups work tonight on DK/FDRFT is by finding a cheap bat or two that will allow you to spend up elsewhere. Arizona rookie Josh Rojas is all the way down at $2,400 on DK and $4,900 on FDRFT. He’s facing a pitcher in Tyler Beede with low strikeouts and high walks against lefties, and while unproven in the majors, Rojas hit .310 with both power and speed at Triple-A this season.