DFS Alerts
Flying High
The Cardinals lineup is loaded with right-handed power and facing a left-handed pitcher in Jose Quintana with below average 19% strikeouts to righties this season. Paul Goldschmidt is too cheap for his long term numbers against lefties and he’s started to look better at the plate with 13 hits in his last nine games. Over the past two seasons, Goldschmidt has a .250 ISO, .403 wOBA and 50% hard hits against LHP. He is affordable enough for all formats tonight and playable on his own or in St. Louis stacks.
Late Night Fireworks
The West Coast games are bound to go a little overlooked tonight, but there is some great hitting at nice salaries out west. Oakland is starting Brett Anderson who has struck out just 13.4% of righties this season and has seen his once elite ground ball rate fall to a more manageable 49%. Alex Bregman has a .250 ISO against lefties this season and since the start of 2018, he has more walks than strikeouts against LHP. He is affordable enough for cash games with the fly balls and power for tournament upside.
The Ace At A Discount
For pure strikeout upside tonight, Justin Verlander is at the top of the board, but the difference between him and Jacob deGrom is not as big as the difference in salary. deGrom’s price has dropped from a couple rough outings recently, but I don’t see any red flags to be concerned about. On the season, he has the 2nd highest K rate on this slate at 29% along with just 6.8% walks. He has thrown over 100 pitches in six straight starts, giving him additional upside in innings when batted balls go his way. I’ll take this discount in cash games tonight over Verlander.
Edwin Encarnacion (dental) scratched Friday; Daniel Vogelbach replaces
Encarnacion has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Angels due to a dental procedure. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Daniel Vogelbach, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Domingo Santana, Kyle Seager, Tim Beckham up to third, fourth, and fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Mariners lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Tyler Skaggs at home this evening.
As reported by: Ryan Divish via Twitter Other tagged players: Daniel Vogelbach
Astros priced down in O.co despite great matchup vs. Fiers
Astros bats are usually expensive but have been priced down due to their environment in O.co tonight despite a matchup with Mike Fiers. They will be without Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve but have some interesting value options in their lineup. Fiers has been awful this year with a 5 ERA / 5.39 xFIP / 5.08 SIERA with a 9.5% K-BB, 44% FB rate and just a 7% SwStr. Fiers hasn’t shown any signs of improvement either, with a 5.24 xFIP, 5.45 SIERA and 8% K-BB over the past 30 days. Alex Bregman (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Michael Brantley (.376), Josh Reddick (.323) and Yuli Gurriel (.297) are decent options vs. Fiers Friday night. Derek Fisher (128 wRC+ in AAA this year) projects to lead off at just $3.4k on Draftkings. Gurriel projects to bat 4th and is just $3.1k, while Reddick projects to bat 5th at just $3.2k. Bregman and Brantley are both under $4.4k despite their continued success against RHP. The Astros have a 4.43 implied line vs. Fiers and the A’s.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, Yulieski Gurriel, Derek Fisher, Mike Fiers
Rockies bats a no-brainer option with a 7.64 implied total vs. Edwin Jackson
Journeyman Edwin Jackson gets the start for the Blue Jays tonight. Over 14 innings so far in 2019, Jackson has a 9 ERA / 5.53 xFIP / 5.15 SIERA with a 7.8% K-BB. He also has an ugly .408 xwOBA allowed and an atrocious 17.6% barrel rate allowed. Jackson hasn’t put together a good season for a while now and is projected as roughly a 5.50 ERA pitcher by most projection systems going forward. Rockies’ hitters project to see a good amount of plate appearances vs. the Jays’ bullpen, who has had a decent 4.00 SIERA in 2019 but a 6th worst 1.50 HR/9 allowed. Of the Rockies’ projected order, David Dahl (.358 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nolan Arenado (.353), Trevor Story (.351) and Ryan McMahon (.340) are the best options vs. RHP and are all hitting in the top part of the order. Raimel Tapia (.261) is projected to leadoff and is just $4.6k on Draftkings. Dahl is projected to hit 3rd and is just $4.7k. Ian Desmond (.336) has quietly had a decent season and is just $4.4k. All Rockies’ bats are more than fairly priced today considering their massive implied total of 7.64.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon, Raimel Tapia, Ian Desmond, Edwin Jackson Rays bats a contrarian option vs. Berrios
Jose Berrios is mostly regarded as an ace, but there’s a few reasons to consider having some exposure to Rays’ bats against him tonight. Berrios has a mediocre 4.42 xFIP / 4.31 SIERA with a 17% k rate over the last 30 days. Berrios is also much worse on the road; in his career he has a .292 xwOBA allowed at home versus a .330 xwOBA allowed on the road. The Rays have the 4th best wRC+ in the league vs. RHP with a 117 mark and have a number of bats that are priced down for this matchup. Austin Meadows (.440 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Avisail Garcia (.410), Brandon Lowe (.355), Ji-Man Choi (.351) and Christian Arroyo (145 wRC+ in AAA this year) are all solid options that are in the top-5 of Tampa Bay’s order. With the exception of Meadows ($5.5k), all Rays’ hitters are $4.2k or less on Draftkings. Arroyo is just $2.6k and is a great value option. Mike Zunino (.316 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) and Willy Adames (.308) are also options and are both under $3.4k. The Rays have a 4.21 implied line vs. Berrios and the Twins Friday night.
Other tagged players: Avisail Garcia, Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Christian Arroyo, Mike Zunino, Willy Adames, Jose Berrios Avisail Garcia (hamstring) scratched Friday; Daniel Robertson replaces
Garcia has been scratched from the Tampa Bay Rays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to left hamstring tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Daniel Robertson, who will now play second base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Willy Adames up to third, respectively. However, the remainder of the Rays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jose Berrios at home this evening.
As reported by: Juan Toribio via Twitter Other tagged players: Daniel Robertson Lots to like about Kenta Maeda tonight vs. PHI
Kenta Maeda has a lot going for him tonight at home in a matchup with the Phillies. On the year, Maeda has a 3.67 ERA / 4.23 xFIP / 4.31 SIERA with a very impressive 27.5% soft contact rate compared to a 28.1% hard contact rate. He’s generating a very solid 14.4% SwStr that leads us to believe his 24.5% K rate (currently lower than his career average of 26%) has some positive regression coming its way. Maeda’s Statcast numbers are much more impressive than his ERA estimators, as he has allowed just a .282 xwOBA, 84.3 aEV and 5.9% barrel rate, all numbers being near the top of the league among starting pitchers. Maeda has just a 3.21 xFIP / 3.35 SIERA with a 32% K rate and 6% BB rate with just a .226 xwOBA allowed over the past 30 days. Maeda has also been a better pitcher at home for his career, with a .276 xwOBA allowed at home versus a .297 xwOBA allowed on the road. The Phillies have a below average 93 wRC+ and 23.6% K rate vs. RHP on the year and have just a .316 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Maeda also projects to have Will Smith as his catcher, who is a very good pitch framer. The Phillies have a 3.97 implied total vs. Maeda and the Phillies tonight.
Not As Bad As It Looks
The consensus opinion seems to be that Jose Ramirez has been awful. He’s certainly been disappointing based on expectations, but there is still a tremendous amount to like in his skill set. It starts with his still elite plate disclipline, a 15.3% K rate with 12.3% walks this season. His hard hit rate is league average at 37.3% and everything about his batted ball profile is the same as it’s been the past two seasons when he had HR/FB% of 14.1% and 16.9%. This season it’s at 5% along with a .236 BABIP, both well below his normal levels. Even if they continue to struggle, his speed adds a lot to his DFS value with the 2nd most stolen bases in the league this year. He is in the middle of a good lineup facing a low strikeout, high walk pitcher who allows steals and it all comes at a salary that is discounted from the surface stats.
Caleb Smith costs less than $10K with the highest SwStr rate on the board (15.9%)
Caleb Smith is the most interesting pitcher near the top of the board tonight. That’s because he combines the highest upside per batter. His 33.2 K% is just behind Chris Sale, while his 15.9 SwStr% is best on the board as is his 76.1 Z-Contact%. He has allowed barrels at a 10.2% clip on contact, but that’s more to do with his 28.5 GB% than an 87.3 mph aEV. He is coming off his worst start of the season in Washington (3 IP – 7 ER – 1 K), but that’s after seven straight starts of two runs or less. He’s not home tonight, but he’s in another favorable park in San Diego against an offense with a 26.9 K% vs LHP. Now, remember the “per batter” qualifier above…that’s because he’s only gone beyond 22 faced three times this year. However, there doesn’t seem to be a theme to Mattingly’s leash here. He’s gone beyond 100 pitches three times, but then also been pulled after 89 two starts back before his poor effort in Washington. The good news is that Smith is below $10K here with the ability to pay off in five great or six good innings and perhaps the shorter outings last two times out will give him a bit larger workload tonight.
Mike Leake has a 7.10 DRA, .371 xwOBA and a board worst 91.6 mph aEV
Mike Leake doesn’t miss bats and his 91.6 mph aEV is worst on the board. His 4.93 ERA is in line with his traditional estimators (SIERA, xFIP, FIP), but the more progressive numbers (7.10 DRA, .371 xwOBA) don’t even believe he belongs in the league. Somehow, he keeps getting his six innings in, but they’re not really quality innings. Take a pitcher who has exceeded four strikeouts in just one of his last nine starts and put him up against an offense with a 114 wRC+ and 17 K% vs RHP and you have a recipe for offense. The Angels are one of seven teams implied for five or more runs tonight, but near the bottom of that group they could get lost in the shuffle, especially in a pitcher’s park on the west coast. Leake doesn’t have much of a platoon split over the last 12 months (batters from either side above .320 wOBA and xwOBA), though Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is really the only RHB you want. Shohei Ohtani (149 wRC+, .286 ISO), Kole Calhoun (133 wRC+, .282 ISO) and Tommy La Stella (128 wRC+, .203 ISO) are all bats of interest here.
Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Mike Leake Offense Gets Park Upgrade in Game With High Run Total
I have interest in both sides of the Royals – Rangers matchup tonight with the game total at 10.5, but the Royals in particular are an appealing stack playing on the road with both a park upgrade for their offense and guaranteed 9th-inning at-bats. The Royals are facing Ariel Jurado, who has given up 9 HRs in his 78.1 career MLB innings, and will be followed by a Rangers bullpen that carries a 5.08 ERA with 36 HRs allowed in 226.2 innings this season. I’ll be targeting the Royals power hitters such as Adalberto Mondesi, Alex Gordon, Ryan O’Hearn, and Jorge Soler.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler, Ryan O'Hearn
Top 100 prospect Jon Duplantier makes his first major league start
Jon Duplantier has thrown 12 innings in relief for the Diamondbacks with a 24 K% and 3.4% Barrels/BBE, but 90 mph aEV that doesn’t tell us much. The well regarded prospect makes his first major league start against the Mets tonight. Duplantier as the #3 ranked prospect in the Arizona system (Fangraphs) and 87th among all prospects with a 50 Future Value grade. There is some concern that a lower arm slot could lead to platoon issues, but the curveball and changeup may be good enough to counter that. The other aspect that makes this a nice spot for a pitcher with potential platoon issues is that the Mets currently only have two left-handed position bats on their entire roster at this point (Michael Conforto and Dom Smith). The problem with using Duplantier tonight is that he already costs $7.9K on DraftKings, has had a double digit walk rate at nearly every level and he has not completed even five innings in any of his six AAA starts this year. In fact, the 18 batters he faced last time out was five more than he’d faced in any other start. Duplantier could be effective against a predominantly right-handed lineup tonight, but don’t expect him to go through the order more than twice.
Cheap Exposure
Jason Kipnis is an unexciting bat to roster but he’s expected to hit top five in the order against Dylan Covey in a hitter friendly park. The Cleveland Indians have the highest non-Coors implied run total (5.8) on the slate and Kipnis represents a cheap way to get exposure to their lineup at a relatively weak position.
