DFS Alerts
Power Upside for Cheap
Yes, Shohei Ohtani has struggled this season but his price tag on DraftKings may be too tough to pass up in an ideal power matchup against Mike Leake. Ohtani broke into the Big Leagues last year with 22 HRs in 367 PA’s and a massive .279 ISO but has struggled to show power yet this season with just 2 HRs. Hopefully Mike Leake is the cure to Ohtani’s lack of power as the Seattle veteran has already given up 16 long balls in just 65.2 innings pitched this season.
National League Offense Gains a Hitter and Gets a Park Boost Tonight
The Giants offense gets a major park upgrade tonight playing in Baltimore, and they could be a more affordable stack tonight facing Andrew Cashner in Camden Yards. San Francisco has a 4.6 implied run total that doesn’t sit at the top of the slate, however that run total is still nearly a full run higher than the team’s average 3.67 runs per game, plus the Giants gain an extra hitter tonight playing in an American League park. I’ll be targeting hitters with some power such as Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval, and Evan Longoria (career .862 OPS at Camden Yards in over 300 ABs).
Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Mike Yastrzemski, Pablo Sandoval
Low-Priced Option With Highest Upside
At first glance it appears to be Yu Darvish who has the highest upside of Friday’s low-priced options and Derek Carty’s projection system, THE BAT, agrees with me. Per THE BAT, Darvish has the highest 90th-percentile projection of any pitcher priced under $8,000 on DraftKings. Darvish has been frustratingly wild the majority of the season but has still flashed strong strikeout upside for his price tag with a 12.6% whiff rate and 26.7% strikeout rate.
Zack Wheeler has a 28.5 K% and .268 xwOBA in May
Zack Wheeler didn’t really break out until a few months into the 2018 season and while there have been some ups and downs, it seems like he may be poised to do similar in 2019. While he’s allowed at least three runs in three straight starts, his strikeout rate is up to 28.5% in May with just seven walks after 17 over his first six starts. Last year, his exceptional contact management was a surprise. While he’s allowed four HRs over his last three starts, his 87.4 mph aEV and 6.6% Barrels/BBE are slightly better than average, but his xwOBA is down to .268 in May (fourth best on the board). More traditional estimators are also well below his 4.19 ERA for the month as well (3.33 SIERA, 2.87 FIP). The Diamondbacks are coming off a trip to Coors, but are missing a few bats and have just a 90 wRC+ (23 K%) vs RHP. This is an offense that Wheeler should be able to handle and with his results a bit worse than the underlying numbers recently, a price tag within $400 of $9K on either site would seem to have some value.
Cheap, Viewed Favorably
Miles Mikolas isn’t a very good fantasy pitcher. His inability to miss bats (17.8% strikeout rate this season) both caps his upside and lowers his floor. So why am I even considering him in tournaments? His price tag. Mikolas is extremely cheap across the industry and opens salary to spend on bats on a slate where there are a ton of strong hitting spots. Encouragingly, the betting market has viewed Mikolas favorably throughout the day as the Cubs continue to see their implied run total decrease the closer we get to first pitch.
Rebounding Pitcher Gets Plus Matchup Tonight
The season numbers for Mike Foltynewicz don’t look good, with a 5.67 ERA (5.00 SIERA) and 6.62 K/9, but he has several factors working in his favor tonight. First is his matchup against a Detroit offense that ranks 3rd in K% and 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, and will be playing with one less hitter in the lineup playing in a National League ball park tonight. Foltynewicz also appears to be getting back into form after missing time with an injury, and if he can pitch closer to his 9.93 K/9 from last season, he could be a bargain play for tournament lineups tonight.
Yu Darvish has walked just five of last 80 batters, is missing bats (26.7 K%) and gets a park upgrade
Missing bats is not Yu Darvish’s problem (26.7 K%). It’s a 15.1 BB% and 27.5 HR/FB. The good news is that he has just a 9.8 Hard-Soft% and 87 mph aEV. The HRs are probably a bit of a fluke. Just three of his 11 have come in five road starts. The other good news is that he’s transitioning to one of the most power suppressing parks in baseball when the weather it isn’t too hot, which it isn’t expected to be in St Louis tonight. As for the walks, he’s issued a free pass to just five of his last 80 batters (22.5 K-BB% last three starts). The Cardinals are perceived as a tough offense and have decent peripherals (12.5 K-BB%, 13.7 HR/FB) vs RHP, but just a 99 wRC+, while they’ve struggled to the lowest wRC+ (68) in major league baseball over the last week with a 18.5 K-BB%. At a very reasonable $7K, this is a spot where players can take some GPP shots with Darvish in a secondary spot. Nobody in his price range has his upside, though he may still be too untrustworthy for GPPs.
Dylan Covey has a -4.3 K-BB%, but Trevor Bauer has been hit hard too (90.3 mph aEV)
Trevor Bauer’s 27.5 K% is fourth best on the slate, but he does have a 3.99 ERA which is lower than all of his estimators due to an 11.3 BB% and 90.3 mph aEV (10.7% Barrels/BBE is fourth worst on the board). Considering the lack of high end pitching even on a full slate, Bauer can still be used in this spot against an offense with a 19.6 K-BB% vs RHP, but the White Sox also have a 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Consider going contrarian and picking out some Chicago bats tonight, as conditions appear favorable to offense according to Weather Edge, a premium RotoGrinders tool. Bauer has already allowed one more HR this year (10) than all of last, split evenly between RH and LH batters, as he has fly ball tendencies against batters from either side of the plate. Yoan Moncada (110 wRC+, .200 ISO), Jose Abreu (96 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Eloy Jimenez (98 wRC+, .211 ISO) are the only batters in the projected lineup above even a .160 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Add in Tim Anderson (94 wRC+, .156 ISO) and nobody else is above a 90 wRC+ or .150 ISO. On the other side of this matchup, Dylan Covey has a -4.3 K-BB% and has allowed a HR in four straight starts. The Indians are a poor offense (82 wRC+, 12 HR/FB vs RHP), but do have patience (10.7 BB%). They are also the more obvious offense in this matchup, above five implied runs. Considering the terrible peripherals for Covey, Cleveland is the better team to all out stack in this situation, while players should probably be hunting for power against Bauer.
Other tagged players: Dylan Covey, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Trevor Bauer Don't Overthink It
The Rockies have an absurdly high team total and it’s tough to argue with against Edwin Jackson and the Blue Jays bullpen. At the high end tonight, with third base being a much stronger position than SS, I’ll side with Trevor Story ahead of Nolan Arenado as the Rockies bat to spend on. They are both elite, but Story’s .268 ISO and 45% hard hits are ahead of his teammate tonight.
Site Specific Values
The pitching prices are all over the board on different sites tonight, and we get a significant savings on Joey Lucchesi on both FD and Yahoo. Lucchesi’s skills have been strong all year with 24.9% K and 6.1% BB leading to a 3.80 SIERA, and he’s coming off a big 11-K performance in Toronto. His pitch count is always a bit of an issue, but the extreme lac of patience from the Marlins, combined with their low power should give him the chance to pick up some easy innings and get deeper into the game than usual.
Different Sites, Different Pricing
There is a huge group of viable pitchers below the top three tonight, and on DK/FDRFT, Trevor Bauer has been priced down for his inconsistency. I am nervous about the walks, but Bauer is just the 8th most expensive pitcher on this slate and he has as much upside as anyone. His 27.5% K rate is the 4th highest on the slate and he has 7+ K’s in nine of his 12 starts. The matchup tonight against the White Sox is favorable not just in terms of strikeouts, but also for his control issues with Chicago having the lowest walk rate in the league against right-handed pitching.
Save A Little, Keep The Upside
Chris Sale and Patrick Corbin are the standout pitchers tonight, but with salary being at a premium, I’d prefer to save a few dollars while keeping my upside intact with Caleb Smith. So far this season, Smith’s strikeout rate of 33.2% is just a hair behind Sale for the best mark on the slate. One bad start has brought his salary down, but prior to the one bad game, he had 7+ strikeouts in eight of nine starts and had not allowed more than three runs in any game. I give him a pass on one bad start, and he has the best pitching environment of the aces along with facing a Padres team near the top of the league in strikeouts against lefties.
LHBs have a .400 xwOBA against Tyler Mahle over the last year
Tyler Mahle has a 20.1 K-BB%, but 2.65 K/SwStr. He throws a lot of fastballs up in the zone, also responsible for a 20.4 HR/FB and 28 Hard-Soft% with a 25.8 LD%, 90.4 mph aEV and 43.8% 95+ mph EV. Aside from a 3.45 xFIP, the remainder of his estimators fall within a half run of his 4.15 ERA. Perhaps the most important point to make here is that Mahle has been absolutely dreadful against LHBs over the last calendar year (.400 wOBA, .361 xwOBA, 44.2 Hard%, 32.7 GB%). In one of the most power friendly parks in baseball, Washington bats could be useful here. The Nats have just three of those among the first six in the projected order, but all have been hitting the ball well (140+ wRC+ last seven days). Adam Eaton (110 wRC+, .101 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only one of the three lacking power, but can make up for it by getting on base ahead of the middle of the order. Juan Soto (146 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Matt Adams (84 wRC+, .199 ISO) are more likely where the damage is at. Anthony Rendon (150 wRC+, .239 ISO) has been incredibly productive against RHP, despite Mahle’s .293 wOBA and xwOBA allowed to same-handed batters.
Other tagged players: Tyler Mahle, Matt Adams, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon Mahle a great contrarian arm on Friday night vs. Nats
Tyler Mahle has quietly been a very solid pitcher this year; he has a 4.15 ERA but owns a 3.46 xFIP / 3.71 SIERA with a solid 25.2% K rate and just 5.1% BB rate with a 43.4% GB rate. Over the past 30 days, he owns a 3.38 SIERA and 3.41 xFIP with a 28% K rate and 4% BB rate. Mahle has seen increased success this year by replacing his mediocre slider (.388 xwOBA allowed last year) and changeup (.371 xwOBA allowed) with a new curve (.281 xwOBA allowed) and splitter (.290 xwOBA allowed). The Nats have just an 84 wRC+ and 24.3% K rate vs. RHP on the year, though they have dealt with some injuries to their top bats. Most projection systems have been slow to catch on to Mahle’s adjustments in 2019, as they all have him as a 4.50+ ERA pitcher for the rest of 2019. Mahle’s adjustments look legit legit, however, and should help lower ownership for those who want to roll with him in GPPs. Mahle is a bargain at just $6.2k on Draftkings and $7.2k on Fanduel. The Nationals currently have a 4.5 implied line vs. Mahle and the Reds Friday night.
Andrew Cashner has an 18.2 K-BB% over his last seven starts
Andrew Cashner has allowed eight runs over his last 11 innings, but those two starts were against the Yankees and at Coors, in which the latter of, he struck out five without a walk. Over a seven start span, Cashner is rocking an 18.2 K-BB% with a 52.1 GB%. The improvement has come from just about completely ditching a useless sinker, which batters hammered last year. This hasn’t turned Cashner into an All-Star. His ERA is still 4.15 with a 3.84 FIP over this span and his 49.5% 95+ mph aEV for the season is still worst on the board, but the improvement does make him useful in certain spots at the right price and that appears to be the situation tonight. Cashner costs less than $7K on either site with the Orioles hosting the Giants tonight and makes for a reasonable compliment to a higher priced arm. This is a solidly below average offense with a 75 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% and 12.3 HR/FB vs RHP.