DFS Alerts

Another RHP who struggles against LHBs in a massively positive run environment

Despite a slight drop in their 5.83 implied run total over the course of the afternoon, the Rockies still tower above all other offenses on a slate where only four teams are even above 4.5 runs tonight. As pitcher with confusing BABIP struggles, Coors might not be the right fit for Nick Pivetta, who, like both previous Philadelphia pitchers in this series, has struggled with LHBs this season (.336 wOBA). The Rockies have been on a scoring spree so far this week, but the fact remains, that Charlie Blackmon (119 wRC+, .221 ISO) and David Dahl (123 wRC+, .267 ISO) have been the only well above average batters against RHP in this lineup. The environment makes Nolan Arenado (95 wRC+, .191 ISO), Trevor Story (101 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Carlos Gonzalez (102 wRC+, .194 ISO) all playable, but not necessarily the best values on the board.

A modest 4.52 implied run line is good enough to place the Cubs fourth highest on the board tonight against Ivan Nova at Wrigley. The formula against Nova is simple. Play LHBs (.345 wOBA, .376 xwOBA). The Cubs seem to understand this as there are six of them in the lineup. The ones you want most are Daniel Murphy (126 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP in 2018) and Anthony Rizzo (138 wRC+, .212 ISO) in the top third of the lineup with perhaps Kyle Schwarber (124 wRC+, .269 ISO) in the middle The top RHB in the lineup has been so good against RHP, that Javier Baez (134 wRC+, .273 ISO) remains a consideration as well.

Middle of the order salary savers

Players paying up for pitcher may want to take a look at the Pirates’ lineup tonight. Just third from the bottom at 3.48 implied runs at Wrigley, they are facing Jose Quintana, who has allowed RHBs a .326 wOBA this season. This mark is a bit worse than average, as is his .344 xwOBA, but what Pittsburgh offers is cheap RHBs in the middle of the order. Elias DIaz (154 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP this season) bats cleanup for $3.8K on DK ($2.5K on FD) with Jose Osuna (103 wRC+, .245 ISO). Sample sizes are small, but there’s enough there to suggest they exceed such a low price tag and help players save salary tonight.

Probably worth the astronomical cost

The Brewers find themselves in the middle of the board with a 4.08 implied run line with a park downgrade in St Louis. However, while John Gant has no actual platoon split, holding batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA, LHBs have a 52.1 Hard% against him, resulting in a .340 xwOBA. That plays right into a pair of red hot LHBs. Christian Yelich (165 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP this year) has a 270 wRC+ over the last week. Travis Shaw (136 wRC+, .293 ISO) has a 166 wRC+ and 60 Hard% over the last seven days. Yelich’s cost has reached an astronomical level, but the numbers suggest he’s been entirely worth it.

Great Matchup for a Lefty

The Cardinals have an easy matchup to break down. Jhoulys Chacin has held right-handed hitters to a .289 xwOBA this season, but has allowed a .367 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. The splits aren’t exactly ideal for a right-handed heavy offense, so I don’t have much interest in a full stack. Matt Carpenter is the lone target here, as he bats from the left side and boasts a .424 xwOBA and a .282 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Good Form and a Solid Matchup

Quintana hasn’t had the best year overall, but he has been trending in the right direction. In his last three starts, he has a 3.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 7%. This is more like the Quintana that we’ve seen over the last few seasons. The Pirates have some solid right-handed hitters in their lineup, but overall this is an exploitable matchup. Pittsburgh’s projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average xwOBA of only .316 with a strikeout rate of 25% against left-handed pitching.

High upside bats could overcome bullpen effort

The Yankees suffer a park downgrade in Tampa Bay, who are likely going with the Ryne Stanek/Yonny Chirinos combination today. They have just a 4.28 implied run line, but there are only four teams solidly above them. Chirinos has a wOBA within four points of .300 against batters from either side of the plate this year, but an xwOBA at least 35 points above for batters from either side as well with a hard hit rate above 40%. Aaron Judge (145 wRC+, .296 ISO) and Luke Voit (154 wRC+, .296 ISO) have been exceptional against same-handed pitching this year with Andrew McCutchen (116 wRC+, .160 ISO) a leadoff bat with some value as well.

Lefty bats could provide some value against lefty arm

The Mets have an implied run line below four runs, but only four teams are above 4.3 runs tonight. Considering the Sean Newcomb has allowed at least three runs in five of his last seven starts, considering that while he has now platoon split (batters from both side exactly a .304 wOBA), but LHBs have a much higher xwOBA (.338), and considering the Mets do have two LHBs who have hit LHP well in the top half of the lineup, there may be some opportunity here. Jeff McNeil (138 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Michael Conforto (121 wRC+, .230 ISO) are actually the only batters in the entire lineup above a 110 wRC+ or .160 ISO vs LHP this season.

90 Pitches is More than Enough in this Matchup

Sale is expected to push for 90 pitches tonight against the Orioles, so this is the first time that we can actually consider him since coming back from injury. He has a lot going for him in this spot. His price has come down across the industry and he’s facing the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .270 with a strikeout rate of 27% against left-handed pitching. Throwing 90 pitches against Baltimore is like throwing 105 pitches against most teams.

Daily Bullpen Alert: One active pen well above a five FIP over the last month

With the worst bullpen over the last month off the board, the Rangers (5.36 FIP, 6.8 K-BB%) are the only pen well above a five FIP over the last month and potentially the one players should focus most on attacking with the few elite bats the Angels have in a game being started by Yohander Mendez, who has exceeded five innings just once this year. The Cardinals (5.04 FIP, 7.8 K-BB%) are the only other team on the board with a FIP above five over the last 30 days. John Gant has completed five innings in just one of his last four starts and pitches against the Brewers tonight. The game in San Francisco is basically a battle of bullpens tonight. Both teams have a 2.96 FIP over the last 30 days (though the Padres have the Giants by exactly six points of K-BB%), but with well below average offenses and an extremely negative run environment included, this is not a place to look for offense. Ross Stripling has been limited since returning to the rotation, but the Dodgers have a 2.96 FIP and 20.7 K-BB% last 30 days behind him.

Three from the mid-tier price range in favorable spots

The tendency of more teams to shorten the outing lengths of their starters and throw more innings out of their bullpens with expanded rosters in September makes it difficult to find value in daily fantasy pitchers in the mid and lower tiers at this point in the season. There may be a few pitchers on tonight’s slate that merit attention though. Shane Bieber (23.5 K%, 3.52 SIERA, .331 xwOBA) costs less than $9K in a high upside matchup with the White Sox (93 wRC+, 18.9 K-BB%). The Indians aren’t playing for anything, but Bieber is not going to be starting front end games for Cleveland and shouldn’t be limited tonight. Andrew Heaney (23.6 K%, 3.79 SIERA, .326 xwOBA) is coming off a rough start in Houston, but gets the Rangers (83 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs LHP) at home tonight for $8.5K or less. Jhoulys Chacin (19.7 K%, 4.55 SIERA, .329 xwOBA) has struggled in two of his three starts against the Cardinals this year, but does have a large platoon split (RHBs .240) and is facing a predominantly RH lineup with a park upgrade for just $7K.

On an Offensive Roll

The Brewers are on a roll right now and are threatening to take the NL Central title away from the slumping Cubs, and they draw a fine matchup against John Gant and the weak St. Louis bullpen tonight. Gant has alarming command issues and has allowed a ton of hard contact to left-handed batters this year, so there are some prime targets here for the Brewers. Christian Yelich is hammering everything and will go under-owned thanks to his elevated price point, making him a fine swerve in GPP formats. You can add Shaw and Moustakas and their power upside to any stack, as well. As a St. Louis fan, I hope I’m wrong here with this being such a huge game, but my brain says otherwise.

More meaningful games for most of tonight's top pitchers

Three pitchers exceed a $10K price point on both sites with one more on FanDuel only. Three of the four are pitching in meaningful games. Chris Sale (38.5 K%, 2.26 SIERA, .238 xwOBA) would be the exception in game two of a double header against the Orioles (78 wRC+ on the road, 77 wRC+ vs LHP) at Fenway. He reached a high of 73 pitches and 15 batters faced since returning from the DL last time out. He probably won’t throw enough pitches to be worth $11K, but it’s a great spot for a great pitcher. Jacob deGrom (32 K%, 2.83 SIERA, .255 xwOBA) is the most expensive pitcher on the board at home against the Braves (20.5 K% vs RHP). After Max Scherzer reached 300 Ks last night, deGrom still may have something to prove in the Cy Young race. He’s gone at least seven innings in five of seven starts with at least eight strikeouts in nine of 10. There is potential for a weather delay in this game though. German Marquez (27.2 K%, 3.41 SIERA, .294 xwOBA) tops the board with a 37.3 K% and 2.10 SIERA over the last month. He’s at Coors against the Phillies (94 wRC+, 24.8 K% vs RHP) with perhaps enough strikeout upside to make $10.2K work. Masahiro Tanaka (25.2 K%, 3.47 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) does get a park upgrade, but faces a difficult offense (110 wRC+ at home, 105 wRC+ vs RHP) and has been inconsistent. The Yankees are 2.5 games in front of the A’s for home field in the wild card game.

A Nice West Coast Stack

The A’s have clinched a spot in the AL playoffs, so we might see some wonky lineups over the final few days of the season. However, they do still have an outside chance to catch the Yankees in an attempt to get the Wild Card game in Oakland, so there is a chance Oakland goes all out to win. If that’s the case and we see a normal lineup, I like the top of the order here. We get some nice value with Nick Martini at the top, a guy who is swinging the bat well right now, and some power in the middle with the likes of Lowrie, Chapman, and Davis. The matchup is golden against the ghost of Felix Hernandez, and very few people will be on this given the lineup uncertainty and the late start. Fire up your low-owned GPP stacks!

A Great Mid-Tier Option

Heaney has been a hit-or-miss option all year long, but I like taking him in favorable matchups. Texas is weaker against left-handed pitching, and Texas is much weaker on the road. Both those boxes are checked tonight, making this a sneaky upside spot for Heaney. I don’t know as though I am as high on him for cash games as some other people are, but I love the GPP potential at his reasonable price point when you consider his skills against LHP and above average strikeout rate.