DFS Alerts
Paying for a Great Combination of Floor and Ceiling
Despite playing for the feeble Mets, Jacob deGrom has been the epitome of consistency throughout the 2018 season. He has logged 28 CONSECUTIVE starts of three earned runs or fewer, and that is remarkable consistency for any major league pitcher. He still has a chance to earn the Cy Young award, especially if he can grab one last win to get to ten for the season. It’s absurd that wins is even part of that equation, but that’s not our arena to argue about. All that matters is how long he’s going to pitch, and deGrom should have a long leash in his final start of the year. What else do the Mets have to play for? The price tag is high, but deGrom also has the best combination of floor and ceiling, even against a good Braves squad.
Grab Some Late Night Value
There is a lot of hitting worth paying up for, so we’ll need some value bats here and there to make it work. The bottom of the Angels lineup is littered with cheap bats, but I’d like to start in Oakland with Nick Martini, assuming he leads off against Felix Hernandez. King Felix just simply isn’t the same guy anymore, especially against lefties with a below average 19.2% K rate and a complete loss of his ground ball and soft contact skills. Martini has shown strong contact and on base skills in his rookie season with an impressive .401 OBP. His BABIP is likely to regress some, but he has been a high BABIP hitter throughout his minor league career, and even with some pullback, his plate skills and 38% hard hits leave him with plenty of upside at the top of this loaded lineup.
Don't Stop Now
The Rockies are coming off back-to-back 10 run games and Charlie Blackmon is riding a 17-game hitting streak from the top of the lineup for the highest projected scoring team on the slate. If you’re not spending up to Jacob deGrom or Chris Sale tonight, there is no issue in paying up for a couple top bats, and this is the place to start. Nick Pivetta is a decent pitcher, but like the other Phillies, he’s had his innings limited. In the time Pivetta is in there, he is more attackable with left-handed bats, where his ground balls and soft contact both drop to below average.
The Regression Monster Is Back
Austin Gomber was visited by the Regression Monster last night in this game, and now it’s John Gant’s turn to face the music. Like his teammate Gomber, Gant has been obscenely lucky this season with a low .252 BABIP and 8.3% HR/FB rate hiding his 4.81 SIERA behind a 3.53 ERA. Against lefties this season, Gant has a below average 19.3% K rate with high 12.8% walks and a downright scary 51% hard hit rate. There is too much lefty power in this Brewers lineup to think he’ll survive those skills. Christian Yelich would be the top play, but he’s appropriately priced. The 2B/3B combo of Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas is the easier way to get in play here with Shaw coming in with a .293 ISO on 42% hard hits and 48% fly balls against right-handed pitching.
Play These Lefties
There is a lot to like at first base tonight, with some power options and some on base plays. Anthony Rizzo is the best of both worlds, facing the low 12.3% strikeouts of Ivan Nova. Rizzo makes elite contact, striking out just 10% of the time against righties while having extra base power with his 23.5% line drives and 40% fly balls. He hits in the middle of a strong lineup with on base hitters ahead of him and power bats behind him. He is an ideal cash game play and useable in tournaments as well, either on his own or as part of a Cubs lefty stack.
Different Pitcher
The Padres are priced like they’re facing Madison Bumgarner, which should help provide a little value on this slate. Kelly isn’t stretched out, and it’s likely going to be a bullpen game for the Giants. Franmil Reyes has been better against lefties, but still has really good numbers against righties. He has a .217 ISO with a .452 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Whether it be a righty or lefty, he should be able to excel in this matchup. The one downfall is the ballpark, but at this price, a multi-hit game will work.
Still Too Cheap On FanDuel
From time to time we see massive price swings on FanDuel and DraftKings, and it’s been that way all season for Daniel Palka. He’s been underpriced on FanDuel all season, and I love being able to take advantage of it. Shane Bieber has been really strong against righties, and while he has a good strikeout rate against lefties, he also gives up a lot of power to them. He has a .393 wOBA with a .238 ISO against and a 47.3% hard-hit rate. Palka continues to have a really good season, and has a lot of upside in this matchup.
Attacking The Righties
The Brewers are in a must win game again tonight, and they’re looking for the sweep on the team chasing them. Chacin continues to really struggle with left-handed hitters but should only face two lefties tonight against the Cardinals. He has a .245 wOBA with a .109 ISO and a 23.9% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He also has a very good 6.7% walk rate and a 9.8% hard to soft contact ratio. The right-handed hitters for the Cardinals have a .155 ISO with a .328 wOBA and a 20.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. With limited value options on this slate, I like this spot for Chacin.
A Deep Mid-Tier With Lots Of Questions
We have a difficult pitching slate tonight, but not from a lack of options. There are a lot of reasonable pitchers at decent prices, but with a mic of questions from pitch counts to recent form. The guy who stands out to me in that crowded mid-tier is Andrew Heaney, at home against the Rangers. He is a matchup dependent pitcher, whose downfall is right-handed power. Almost all of the Rangers power is left-handed, and the few decent right-handed bats for Texas are not frightening in this ballpark. Heaney has strikeout ability to lefties and excellent control that has allowed him to pitch deep into games often this season. At his salary, he is not going to beat himself and he’s my top mid-tier candidate for both cash games and tournaments on all sites.
Like Going Cheap At This Position
We don’t have a lot of value options on DraftKings tonight, so it’s a good night to play a cheaper catcher. I really like this matchup for the Angels, and I particularly like the price of Briceno. Mendez is a very low strikeout pitcher, and he has struggled with right-handed power bats in his small Major League sample size. Briceno has hit lefties well since being called up, putting up a .300 ISO with a .387 wOBA and a 39% hard-hit rate in 54 PAs. I always like to pay down at catcher, but it makes even more sense to do it tonight.
Not Going To Stop Now
I’ve been playing Sean Newcomb all season, and I’m not going to stop in the last week of the regular season, as he draws a great matchup tonight with the Mets. The Mets projected starting lineup has struggled with left-handed pitching this season, as they have a .137 ISO with a .302 wOBA and a 27.2% strikeout rate. They should start five righties and three lefties in this matchup. Newcomb has struggled with power lefties, but he’s been very good with right-handed hitters. He has a .307 wOBA with a .115 ISO against righties this season, and while he allows more power to lefties, he has a 29% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters.
Start of Tuesday's CLE-CHW game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the White Sox have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Trevor Bauer not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, players from this contest should remain firmly in play for all formats with late postponement concerns remaining fairly low.
As reported by: Daryl Van Schouwen via Twitter
Start of Tuesday's PIT-CHC lineup will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Cubs have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Mike Montgomery and Chris Archer not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, players from this contest should remain firmly in play for all formats with late postponement concerns remaining fairly low.
As reported by: Jesse Rogers via Twitter Start of Tuesday's ATL-NYM game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Mets have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Noah Syndergaard not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, players from this contest do carry some risk with rain lingering in the area longer than models predicted earlier in the day, keeping a late postponement firmly in the range out outcomes.
As reported by: the New York Mets via Twitter A wOBA above .400 against RHBs
A crack at Yovani Gallardo (.385 xwOBA) and the Texas bullpen gets the Angels to near five implied runs for the second night in a row despite the negative run environment at home. RHBs have scorched Gallardo for a .413 wOBA and Statcast brings LHBs up to a .376 xwOBA against him this year. It truly is a stars and scrubs lineup for the Angels though. Mike Trout (198 wRC+, .338 ISO) might be the top overall bat on the board. Shohei Ohtani (181 wRC+, .341 ISO) is $1K less. Justin Upton (145 wRC+, .237 ISO) is the other big bat.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Yovani Gallardo