DFS Alerts
Lefty Power Coming Out To Play
Along with the Twins against Jordan Zimmermann, the Brewers lefties at home against Anthony Desclafani are a prime place to look for power tonight. Christian Yelich would top the list, but his salary is excessive. Travis Shaw is the more reasonable way to get in play against the 42% FB, 40% HH and .293 ISO from Desclafani against lefties. Shaw has a .291 ISO and a HR every 14.8 PA against righties this season.
I Don't Like It Either
Look, I don’t like playing Jake Arrieta either but he projects as one of the slate’s top pt/$ pitcher due to a low price tag and good matchup. The Mets’ projected lineup owns a collective 21.7% strikeout rate versus right handed pitching this season and has shown very little power this year outside of 1-2 guys. New York has an implied run total of 3.7 runs and while Arrieta’s lowly 7.6% swinging strike-rate doesn’t inspire confidence in the Phillies veteran giving you a lot of upside, it is a good run prevention spot for him. Pitching in general on Monday (end of season in general) is poor and you could do much worse than rostering a league average pitcher in a good matchup.
Monday Night Slugfest
Get ready for a Monday night slugfest between the two most potent offenses in the league – the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres (sarcasm). This game has two of the lowest implied run totals on the board as both lineups more closely resemble a AAA roster than an actual Big League team at this point in the season. While both offenses are bad, Andrew Suarez stands out as the pitcher to target in this game as he’s simply much more talented than Bryan Mitchell. Suarez gets a very good strikeout matchup in a pitchers park as PlateIQ the Padres projected lineup owns a 22.4% strikeout rate against LHP this season. This is both a good run prevention spot with some strikeout upside for Suarez and he has a chance to be the best pt/$ pitcher on the slate.
Negative Park Shift + Stolen Base Problems
Tyler Glasnow is a much improved pitcher but a negative park shift paired with his continued stolen base problems make him a strong target to stack against on Monday night. Rangers hitters are reasonably priced across the industry due to Glasnow’s improvement this season which makes them an easy team to stack if you’re looking to spend up a bit at starting pitcher. Aside from Glasnow’s obvious stolen base problems (-2 rSB) he also struggles keeping the ball in the yard when opposing hitters are able to get some lift on the ball (16.4% HR/FB). I’m bullish on Glasnow’s long-term prospects in Tampa Bay but this is a tough spot for the Rays young righty and it’s a chance to get exposure to a Rangers offense in Arlington when they should be relatively low owned.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara #StackStros
Despite crucial pieces of the offense spending a lot of time on the DL this season the Astros are far and away the best offense in the league against left handed pitching. Houston owns a league best 123 wRC+ against LHP while the second place Yankees are 12-points back (111 wRC+). The Astros also own the third best ISO against LHP (.185) as the team collectively has shown power against southpaws. The Stros get to face a below average lefty on Monday night as Wade LeBlanc and the Mariners travel to Houston. The Astros have an implied run total approaching five runs and are one of the top power stacks on the slate.
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer Brewers Lefties
Things Anthony DeSclafani isn’t good at: getting left handed hitters out. DeSclafani has always struggled containing LHB throughout his career but has especially struggled this season allowing a .377 wOBA and only generating a 11.3% soft-hit rate. The Brewers did an excellent job at fortifying their lineup with left handed bats with the acquisition of guys like Granderson, Moustakas, and Travis Shaw and represent an extremely tough matchup for DeSclafani. Milwaukee has an implied run total north of five runs (5.2) and is one of the top overall teams to stack on the slate.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw This Guy Looks Legit
The highest projected team total on this slate belongs to Tampa Bay, heading into Texas to face low strikeout rookie Adrian Sampson in the best hitting environment of the night. Sampson had just a 15.8% K rate at Triple-A, making it likely that we see a lot balls in play here tonight. The sample size has gotten large enough for Ji-Man Choi that I’m buying this power. He has a .255 ISO on 47% hard hits and 26% line drives against righties this season and hits in the middle of a Tampa lineup that is 7th in the league in runs scored over the past month.
Where Home Runs Come From
Jordan Zimmermann has one of the most predictable skill sets in baseball. He throws strikes, and he allows hard hit fly balls. Hard hit fly balls are what turns into home runs, and we’ve seen loads of those from Zimmermann in the second half, with a 2.68 HR/9 and multiple homers allowed in seven of his last 11 starts. Eddie Rosario has slowed down late in the season, but his salary has come down with it, and he still leads the Twins with 19 HR against right-handed pitching. Over the past month, Jake Cave has taken over as the top power bat for Minnesota with seven home runs and a .275 ISO in his last 27 games. You can add Max Kepler or Robbie Grossman to the list for a cheap outfield with plenty of upside tonight.
Other tagged players: Jake Cave Solid Skills, Solid Matchup, Solid Price = Solid
Musgrove generally falls in the ‘better in real life’ category, but he has shown a bit of a strikeout surge recently with a 28.8% K rate over the past month. It’s unlikely to continue at that rate, but there have been some changes made in his pitch selection, so there could be something to it. Even if the strikeouts trend back towards his average level, his outstanding control, 5% walks and 3.1% walks in the second half, give him a solid base to start from. The low walks allow him the chance to pitch somewhat deep into games despite limited pitch counts, and even when the strikeouts are lower, he can make up the difference with soft contact and ground balls to lefties. The Royals lose a DH and bring their high strikeout rate to an NL park, giving Musgrove a little bit of additional upside tonight. He’s playable in all formats, though probably best used as a cash game SP2.
The Best On The Slate
Patrick Corbin is the only pitcher on this slate tonight with a strikeout rate above the 30% mark. As the season has worn on, his strikeouts have remained, while his control has only gotten better. His already low 5.7% walk rate is down to just 2.8% since the All-Star Break, and that outstanding ability to strike batters out while limiting free passes has more than made up for the hard contact he allows. He is at 10 straight starts striking out at least seven batters, which gives him a strong floor of DFS points. The matchup with the Cubs is not ideal, but none of the top pitchers tonight have ideal matchups. On FanDuel, Corbin is clearly under-priced and isn’t even the most expensive pitcher on the slate making him the top play in all formats. With all the shaky weather on the East Coast, I’m adding Corbin to the Core on DK/FDRFT as well, even at the elevated salary.
No Signs Of Slowing Down
Zack Wheeler continues to roll along, piling up soft contact and quality starts. His soft contact rate is the 3rd highest of all starters in baseball, trailing two guys named Sale and Scherzer. In the second half, Wheeler has a strong 27.1% strikeout rate with low 4.7% walks and a 1.32 ERA. The last time he allowed more than three runs in a start was July 14th, more than two months ago. He has reached seven innings in eight of his last 11 starts, and six of his last eight have resulted in 0-1 runs allowed. On DK/FDRFT, he comes at a 12% discount to Patrick Corbin, and that salary is going to be useful tonight. He is my first look for an SP1 on the two pitcher sites tonight.
Nelson Cruz (illness) scratched Sunday; Daniel Vogelbach replaces
Cruz has been scratched from the Mariners original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Los Angels Angels due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Daniel Vogelbach, who will handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Ryon Healy and Kyle Seager up one batting position to fourth and fifth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Mariners order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Jaime Barria on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter Other tagged players: Daniel Vogelbach
Meibrys Viloria scratched Sunday; Cam Gallagher replaces
Viloria has been scratched from the Kansas City Royals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Cam Gallagher, who will handle the catching duties and slot directly into Viloria’s vacated ninth second in the order. However, the remainder of the Royals lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Kyle Gibson at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Joel Goldberg via Twitter Other tagged players: Cam Gallagher Tommy La Stella (back) scratched Sunday; Albert Almora replaces
La Stella has been scratched from the Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Cincinnati Reds due to lower back stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Albert Almora, who will play center field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Ian Happ all the way up to the two-hole and David Bote all the way up to the sixth spot, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Cubs order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Luis Castillo at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Sahadev Sharma via Twitter Other tagged players: Albert Almora Strong Skill-Set For Cheap
We tried picking on the Marlins on Saturday with Vince Velasquez to no avail and now we’re back on Sunday looking to bully them around with Nick Pivetta. Similar to VV yesterday, Pivetta is just priced too cheap. Unfortunately, also similar to VV is the fact that Pivetta has struggled recently. However, Pivetta’s season long numbers are extremely strong as he’s the owner of a 3.48 SIERA and 27.4% strikeout rate. It’s not often you can get that strong of a skill-set in a favorable matchup for this cheap. Pivetta is my preferred SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.