DFS Alerts
Tyler Mahle struggles with LHBs and HRs
At 10.9%, Tyler Mahle has allowed the highest rate of barreled balls per BBE. He throws lots of fastballs (67%) and has some HR problems, though he hasn’t allowed one in four games. Nine of his 13 HRs surrendered have gone to LHBs. The Tigers don’t have many weapons from the left-side and only a 4.04 implied run line, which is actually good for the middle of the board this afternoon, but all three in the lineup would seem solid values against a pitcher who has a career .392 wOBA (.379 xwOBA) and 45.5 Hard% against batters from that side of the plate. Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario have the exact same numbers against RHP over the last calendar year (117 wRC+, .181 ISO). Niko Goodrum (97 wRC+, .206 ISO) is the third lefty in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Jeimer Candelario, Tyler Mahle, Niko Goodrum
Target All Nationals vs Cashner
There may be no team in the league that lacks viable starting pitching like the Baltimore Orioles (Chris Tillman, anyone?), and arguably their worst option will take the hill tonight as Andrew Cashner squares off with the Nats. Cashner simply doesn’t strike anyone out, with a 14.4 K% and only a 6.7 SS% – the lowest on the slate. He has been equally bad to hitters from both sides of the plate, allowing a .363 wOBA to LH hitters and a .406 wOBA to righties. All bats are in play here as the Nationals have the highest non-Coors Vegas implied team total on the slate, and with all of the offense in Colorado the past couple of games they may be a bit overlooked today. Play Nationals with confidence in this match up.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
A Reasonably-Priced Stack in a Great Matchup
The Royals are not the sexiest team to stack up on a nightly basis, but they do get a favorable matchup tonight against a weak pitcher in Austin Bibens-Dirkx, and the Royals own a high team total of 4.6 runs tonight. That’s a higher number than you will almost ever see for this team. Mike Moustakas remains your strongest option here with a .370 wOBA and .254 ISO against RHP this year, while Salvador Perez is arguably the top catcher of the night on sites where you need to roster one. Hunter Dozier and Alex Gordon can be considered as cheap punts that allow you to get other high-end plays into your lineups.
Other tagged players: Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier, Alex Gordon
Stack up Those Lefties, Lefties, Lefties!
Chad Kuhl has always had issues with left-handed bats, and that has continued in 2018. Even though is wOBA splits are largely neutral this season, the advanced metrics paint a different picture. He has allowed a 41% hard contact rate to lefties (compared to just 30% to righties), and his ground ball rate goes in the tank against left-handed bats. Somehow, though, lefties have posted just a .272 BABIP against him this season. That will change at some point. The elite upside bats of Yelich and Thames are great options on their own or as part of a GPP stack, while Villar adds a nice value lefty to the lineup assuming he cracks the starting nine this evening.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar The Top Stack... If You Have the Salary
If you have the salary to spend up on a top offense tonight, we obviously have to consider the teams at Coors Field. This game has a Vegas total of 11 1/2 runs, and both teams are nearing team totals of six. I slightly prefer the Colorado side of the game, but I won’t fault anyone for targeting either side. Seth Lugo is largely splits-neutral and has been decent this season, though all but three of his appearances have come out of the bullpen. He’s no match for Coors Field. Just stick with Colorado’s strongest options at home against RHP, so that would vault Blackmon and Arenado to the top of the list by default. Carlos Gonzalez is also a much stronger play when facing righties at home, and he’s probably the best way to get cost-controlled exposure to Colroado tonight, along with whoever ends up catching this evening.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez The Safest Value Arm
If you want to go cheap on the mound tonight in order to spend up on some priority bats, Suter makes a lot of sense. He’s a slightly above average arm who doesn’t beat himself. His walk rate sits at a very respectable 5.1% this season, and he draws a decent matchup against the Pirates in a hitter-friendly park this evening. His SIERA and xFIP are both right around 4.00, and I would expect him to pitch well at PNC Park. The only negative is that the Pirates don’t really enhance strikeout upside, but there really isn’t a ton of upside with any of the other cheap arms tonight, making Suter my favorite of the bunch.
The Top Pitcher on the Wednesday Slate
If you are looking for a combination of safety and upside, Morton is clearly the top arm on tonight’s slate. Even though he has been a bit shaky over his last few starts, this is a great spot for a bounce-back against a weak Rays lineup. He still owns a very solid 3.27 SIERA and 3.17 xFIP this season, and his 30.6% strikeout rate is the best mark on this slate. Pitching gets questionable in a hurry this evening, making Morton a priority if you are looking to spend up at the position.
Start of Tuesday's NYM-COL game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the New York Mets and Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rockies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options for daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their appeal, but this delay could be a potentially positive sign for hitters if the teams are willing to wait out these pop-up storms. However, as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game should play through following the initial weather stoppage, leaving hitters firmly in play for all formats.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders via Twitter
RHBs have a .447 xwOBA and 46.4 Hard% against Matt Koch
The Angels have the highest implied run line of all the west coast teams tonight at 4.92 against human pinball machine Matt Koch. He has a board high .424 xwOBA and 14.2% Barrels/BBE with RHBs owning a .407 wOBA, .447 xwOBA and 46.4 Hard% against him. Virtually anyone in this lineup is playable. Ian Kinsler (91 wRC+ .190 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Mike Trout (189 wRC+, .327 ISO) and Justin Upton (123 wRC+, .226 ISO) are top bats tonight. Even Albert Pujols (89 wRC+, .171 ISO) has value below $4K.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Matt Koch, Ian Kinsler, Albert Pujols Cheap And Pretty Good
My preferred punt option is off the table with Jose Miguel Fernandez not in the lineup, so I’ll add to my Brandon Guyer exposure as a salary saver tonight. He is hitting 5th in the lineup tonight with a nice spot right in between Encarnacion and Alonso. He’s not just a pure punt, he has some actual skills against lefties with a .255 ISO and .363 wOBA this season with just 15% strikeouts against LHP.
Rougned Odor scratched Tuesday; Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Odor has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who will play third base and slot directly into Odor’s vacated sixth spot in the order, which does slide Jurickson Profar over to second base defensively. However, the remainder of the Rangers lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Jason Hammel on the road this evening.
As reported by: Evan Grant via Twitter Tuesday night's forecast is not without risk
There are a few spots with at least a chance of rain on Tuesday night with one spot in particular looking a bit risky. Kevin’s full updated forecast is up on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get the latest updates on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Mets' offense is heating up and facing a pitcher with large home/road splits
For his career, batters from either side of the plate have a .349 wOBA or higher against German Marquez at home. As such, a suddenly wakening Mets’ lineup is just one of four teams above five implied runs on Tuesday (5.14). Brandon Nimmo (167 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Michael Conforto (139 wRC+, .221 ISO) both exceed a 200 wRC+ with a 50% hard hit rate over the last week. In fact, each of the first seven batters in the order have at least a 40% hard hit rate over the last week. Asdrubal Cabrera (105 wRC+, .194 ISO), Todd Frazier (112 wRC+, .166 ISO) and Wilmer Flores (115 wRC+, .217 ISO) are all reasonable infield options. Flores is the cheapest of the three by a decent margin despite the highest wRC+ and ISO. He has a 188 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier, German Marquez, Wilmer Flores Vargas has been pitching better, but he's still a lefty at Coors
The Rockies at 6.39 implied runs are a full run above any other team team tonight, but Jason Vargas has not been entirely terrible over the last month (24.2 K%, 10.3 SwStr%, 3.91 ERA, 3.80 SIERA, .288 xwOBA). His 85.6 mph aEV is one of the lowest marks on the board for the season. That said, it’s Coors and he’s a left-handed pitcher. He may not get hit as hard as Vegas expects him to, but there should be plenty of offense, although one other thing to consider is that the Mets regularly limit him to a little more than two times through the order and that shouldn’t change against this lineup in this park. Nolan Arenado (206 wRC+, .363 ISO) and Trevor Story (149 wRC+, .335 ISO) need to get to him early, though DJ LeMahieu (145 wRC+, .242 ISO) may get three shots. While the Mets’ bullpen is heavily right-handed, it’s not a reason to avoid bats at Coors at all. Charlie Blackmon (123 wRC+, .164 ISO) is the only other above average batter in the lineup against LHP, though Ian Desmond (94 wRC+, .220 ISO) has been better as of late. Vargas actually has a .374 wOBA against LHBs since last season, though xwOBA closes the gap to .344 for LHBs and .332 for RHBs.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Jason Vargas, Ian Desmond, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story Texas lineup is still dangerous despite the absence of Gallo
Jason Hammel has a 20.9 K% and 2.8 ERA and FIP over the last month, but the xwOBA is still an ugly .360. In fact, batters from either side are within one point of that xwOBA since the beginning of last season against him. Joey Gallo is out of the lineup and Kansas City is not Texas, but the top half of this lineup still looks strong. Shin-Soo Choo (121 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Adrian Beltre (126 wRC+, .203 ISO) both exceed a 230 wRC+ and 40 Hard% over the last week. Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .178 ISO) is within $200 of $3.5K on either site.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Jason Hammel, Elvis Andrus