DFS Alerts
The rookie phenom jumps up to second in the order for one of two teams outside Coors above five implied runs
The Nationals have just a 92 wRC+ vs RHP and 70 wRC+ over the last week, so they shook up the lineup tonight. Vegas looks at David Hess (13 K%, 11.2% Barrels/BBE) and does not see a problem. The Nationals are just one of two teams outside Coors above five implied runs tonight (5.17). Each of the first six batters in the lineup have at least a 110 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. LHBs have a .401 wOBA and .381 xwOBA against Hess so far. Small sample, but Adam Eaton has torn up RHP so far (190 wRC+, .468 xwOBA, .217 ISO, 55 Hard% last calendar year). Juan Soto (125 wRC+, .158 ISO) bats second tonight. Anthony Rendon (136 wRC+, .205 ISO) costs less than $4K. Bryce Harper (140 wRC+, .295 ISO) and Daniel Murphy (130 wRC+, .223 ISO) are both below a 10 wRC+ and 20 Hard% over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: David Hess, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Juan Soto
Bottom half of the order value in Cleveland
Carlos Rodon did reach 100 pitches in his second start, but struck out just four, has allowed three HRs and walked five of 47 batters faced so far, while allowing a 92 mph aEV. He’s a talented arm when he’s right, but that may not be the case yet. Vegas has sided strong with the home team here (4.88 runs) and players should probably have at least some exposure if playing multiple lineups. While Rodon did have a large split his first couple of seasons, he really hasn’t since last year (batters from either side of the plate are separated by just six points around a .330 wOBA). This means besides the obvious in Francisco Lindor (155 wRC+, .213 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (155 wRC+, .272 ISO), Michael Brantley (105 wRC+, .345 xwOBA, .136 ISO) can also be considered in top of the lineup stacks. For those looking to save money, there’s some value in exposure to the lower half of this lineup as well, including Brandon Guyer (124 wRC+, .172 ISO), batting fifth for less than $3K, and Yan Gomes (146 wRC+, .270 ISO), who has a 199 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Yan Gomes, Carlos Rodon, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez Five Yankee bats exceed a .390 xwOBA vs LHP over the last calendar year
Marco Gonzales has not been a bad pitcher at all this season (21.1 K%, 3.73 SIERA, 3.20 FIP, .331 xwOBA), but runs into the Yankees in the Bronx tonight. The Bombers are one of just two teams outside Coors above five implied runs (5.36). RHBs have a .348 wOBA/.353 xwOBA against Gonzales since last season (.321 wOBA this season with five HRs). The Yankees have a great right-handed core here that includes five of the first six batters in the lineup: Aaron Hicks (127 wRC+, .198 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Aaron Judge (115 wRC+, .189 ISO), Giancarlo Stanton (200 wRC+, .420 ISO), Gary Sanchez (157 wRC+, .305 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (169 wRC+, .311 ISO). The real surprise is that Judge appears to be the runt of that group, but his xwOBA is 70 points above his actual wOBA against them and he has a 76.5 Hard% over the last week. None of the five players mentioned are below a .390 xwOBA vs LHP over the last calendar year
Other tagged players: Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Marco Gonzales, Gleyber Torres How many left-mashing Catchers can the Braves fit in the lineup in an AL park?
The Braves have found a way to smuggle both of their lefty-mashing Catchers into the lineup by adding the DH tonight. Unfortunately, you can only play both Kurt Suzuki (180 wRC+, .402 xwOBA, .345 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Tyler Flowers (197 wRC+, ,473 xwOBA, .229 ISO) on FanDuel. On DraftKings, you’ll have to pick one or the other. RHBs are within six points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Jaime Garcia since last season. Ozzie Albies (141 wRC+, .239 ISO) is a top second base play. Freddie Freeman hits same-handed pitching extremely well (157 wRC+, .263 ISO) and has a 214 wRC+ (61.5 Hard%) over the last week. Unfortunately, Johan Camargo (144 wRC+, .368 xwOBA, .270 ISO) bats ninth.
Other tagged players: Kurt Suzuki, Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo Matt Boyd has retained his low ERA, while his peripherals have fallen apart over the last month
Matt Body has a 3.23 ERA this season. The problem is that he’s retained that ERA over the last month with just a 2.7 K-BB%, in which his estimators are well above five. He’s allowed just six HRs this season, but three in his last three starts and pitches in one of the most power friendly parks in baseball tonight. The Reds (4.73) are the last of eight teams above 4.6 implied runs. Considering Boyd has a sub-.300 wOBA and xwOBA against LHBs since last year, expensive LHBs need not apply, but that still leaves us with a couple of interesting bats in the top half of this lineup. Tucker Barnhart (131 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP last calendar year costs $3.2K on DK ($2.5K on FanDuel), though his xwOBA is 37 points below his actual (.373) over that span. There still seems to be some value there in a cheap catcher at the top of the lineup. Eugenio Suarez (159 wRC+, .393 xwOBA, .262 ISO, 52.2 Hard%) is the big bat here.
Other tagged players: Matthew Boyd, Tucker Barnhart Plenty of Upside Despite the Pitcher's Park
The Rangers were one of my favorite stacks last night and I will be going right back to the well tonight. They face another fly-ball pitcher in hitter-friendly conditions. On the season, Jason Hammel has allowed a .416 xwOBA to lefties and a .368 xwOBA to righties. He has also allowed a 44%+ hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate. The Rangers are finally getting healthy, so we can feel better about targeting their offense as a whole. Joey Gallo currently boasts a .406 xwOBA and a 50% hard contact rate against righties.
Tonight's the Night
Last night was the time to stack the Mets, tonight it’s the Rockies’ turn. They have the highest implied run total of the slate, they draw one of the best matchups on the board, and they are playing at home in Coors Field. What’s not to like? The fact that Colorado is priced up across the industry is actually a good thing for tournaments, as it’s nearly impossible to stack the Rockies with one of the elite arms on the schedule. This will help keep ownership from getting to the point where the Rockies are unplayable. We can target batters from both sides of the plate here, as Jason Vargas has allowed a .399 xwOBA to lefties and a 39% hard contact rate to righties.
Another Right-Handed Heavy Matchup
Velasquez will try to repeat what Nick Pivetta did last night against the Cardinals. Hopefully someone took my advice of playing both Pivetta and Matt Carpenter in the same lineup, as they both managed to have big outings despite facing each other. Velasquez has a high ERA, but an attractive 3.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% on the season. Much like last night with Pivetta, this is a great spot for Velasquez. He has held righties to a .277 xwOBA with a 29% strikeout rate and he will likely face at least seven of them tonight against the Cardinals.
Far Ahead of the Pack
Verlander slightly edges out Chris Sale in terms of a raw projection thanks to the fact that he’s pitching in a better ballpark. They both have elite matchups and are both elite plays in all formats. On the season, Verlander owns a 3.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a hard contact rate of 27%. He should be able to dominate a Rays’ offense that has struggled against right-handed pitching all season. Tonight’s projected lineup has a .296 xwOBA with a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Daily Bullpen Alert: If it starts with an "R", it's probably a bullpen worth attacking
With several unknown quantities on the mound tonight, it might be better to figure out which bullpens are unlikley to see a lot of action tonight. For this, we look at the higher priced pitchers, though, somehow, Matt Koch and Jason Hammel are among the top seven starters tonight in innings per start. The Red Sox (3.23), Phillies (3.30), Mariners (3.36), Dodgers (3.39) and Giants (3.44) are your sub-3.5 FIP bullpens over the last 30 days. The Astros (20.4%), Phillies (20.4%), Yankees (19.6%) and Indians (19.6%) are best by K-BB. For the Giants, Derek Rodriguez is making just his fourth start, but facing the Marlins. Not a situation players were likely thinking of attacking anyway. Rich Hill returns from the DL and has struggled for the Dodgers, but it gets stronger behind him if. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Rockies (5.19), Reds (4.97), Royals (4.78) and Rangers (4.76) have been the worst pens over the last month by FIP. Just remember to attack any team that begins with an “R”. The Royals just traded away their closer last night. The Reds (8.7%) and A’s (9.7%) are the only pens over the last 30 days with a sub-10 K-BB%. Sal Romano, German Marquez and Nick Blackburn would be the pitchers on the lower half of the board in innings per start for those teams tonight. Jason and Cole, the Ham(m)el(s) have each averaged more than six innings per start and are facing each other in Kansas City tonight.
Three mid-range pitchers players shouldn't pass over
Potentially over-shadowed by higher cost, higher upside arms above them, there are a few a guys with mid-range price tags who could be under-represented tonight. Domingo German has not allowed fewer than three runs in any of his six starts since throwing six no-hit innings in his first one. However, he’s struck out 19 of his last 48 batters to drive up his strikeout rate to 27.8% on the season. His 15.6 SwStr% is best on the board and his 17.4 SwStr% over the last month is even better and should make him stand out on this board. He has a 22.6 K-BB% over his last four starts, but costs less than $8K, in part because the matchup is tough against the Mariners (20.5 K% vs RHP, 18.9 HR/FB last seven days). Jameson Taillon has a much smaller range of potential outcomes, but has a 23.7 K%, 3.37 SIERA and .244 xwOBA over the last 30 days, while pitching into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts. The Brewers have 99 wRC+ and 24.7 K% vs RHP. Taillon is within $400 of $8K on either site. Vince Velasquez has four starts of four runs or more in fewer than five innings and that probably scares some people. However, his 28.3 K% for the season and 30.4 K% over the last month are both third best on the board. His .292 xwOBA this season is fourth best. The Cardinals have a 25.8 K% on the road, 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 18.6 K-BB% last seven days and were dominated by Nick Pivetta, a pitcher with similar upside, last night.
Other tagged players: Jameson Taillon, Vince Velasquez Today's top two seem easy, but what about the other high priced pitchers?
Justin Verlander and Chris Sale are one-two in cost and most important metrics on this slate. Sale owns the highest strikeout rate on the board for both the season (34%) and the month (32.3%). His 2.71 SIERA is the only mark on the board below three and his 84.8 mph aEV is best on the board among those with more than two starts. The Twins are lacking right-handed potency (87 wRC+, 24 K%, 6.5 HR/FB vs LHP). Verlander has allowed six runs in 13 innings in Oakland and Texas over his last two starts, while his strikeout rate has dipped below 30% over the last month, in which his xwOBA has actually decreased to .228. His hard hit rate has been above 30% just four times this season. His 31.7 K% for the season is second best on the board and he’s completed six innings in all but one starts, missing by just a single out. He has a very favorable matchup in the most negative run environment on the board against an offense with a 29.8 K% over the last seven days. Consider them about equal and Sale is the better value on DraftKings for $600 less, but other than that, it’s very difficult to separate them and neither is likely to be a poor choice. Additional pitchers who are above $9K on both sites include Blake Snell, who struggled against the Yankees and now finds himself in Houston (126 wRC+, 20.5 K% vs LHP and 167 wRC+, 13.5 K%, 17.6 HR/FB over the last week). The good news is it’s a park upgrade and his 31% strikeout rate over the last month is second best on the board. Over that span he also has a .260 xwOBA. His 25.7% 95+ mph EV is a board low for the season. Mike Clevinger is the third DraftKings pitcher above $10K tonight. He struck out 11 White Sox last time out and has exceeded six innings in nine of 14 starts this year. The rematch is a park downgrade though and he’s struck out more than seven just one other time this season. Jose Berrios is another difficult one. The strikeout rate is up to 29.3% over the last month and he’s generally one of the better contact managers in the league (85.7 mph aEV) with a .260 xwOBA at home since last season. This is another really tough matchup against the Red Sox though (118 wRC+, 18.8 K% vs RHP). The difference between Berrios and Snell at nearly the same cost: significant park advantage for Snell.
Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger, Jose Berrios Top Non-Coors Stack
David Hess has powered his way to a 4.13 ERA through six starts largely due to quite a bit of luck. Hess’ advanced stats are ugly – 5.54 SIERA, 13.0 K%, 8.7 BB%, .242 BABIP, 88.8% LOB, 15.1% HR/FB, 15% Soft%. The inability to generate soft contact and swings and misses will not mix well with a 35.5 GB% over time and this is not only a good contact matchup for the Nationals but a good power matchup as well. The Nats would arguably be the top stack of the night if it weren’t for Coors.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Daniel Murphy
Power Stack
I was a little surprised when I was reading over the expert survey to see a couple of Yankees mentioned as “high-priced hitter(s) you will have little to no exposure to in tournaments”. Sure Marco Gonzalez has been good this year but this remains a very good HR matchup at Yankee Stadium for New York’s power trio. When Marco has struggled in the Big Leagues it has been due to the long ball – he allowed 1.80 HRs per 9 innings over 40 short innings last year and despite massive improvement this year he still owns a HR/FB ratio in the double digits (10.2% vs 17.8% last year – 12.7% for his career). Power is something we want to chase in GPPs and the Yankees have the highest power upside of the entire slate.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez Different Chalk
There’s not much doubt that the Rockies are the top overall stack of the night and as a result ownership will likely be high – especially for players that have the platoon advantage (Story, Arenado, Desmond). Guys like Blackmon and CarGo (if in the lineup) that have a lefty/lefty matchup will still likely garner some ownership due to DFSers finishing off their Rockies stack but their ownership is likely to be much lower. But here’s the thing – if the Rockies stack is successful in getting to Vargas early, this will turn into a bullpen game for a Mets team that only possesses one lefty reliever. In other words, there’s a chance that the Rockies left handed hitters get more at bats against right handed pitchers. Blackmon could still see ownership in the high teens but if you pair him with CarGo (who hit seventh the Rockies last game versus a lefty) and other guys low in the order, you can differentiate your stack without forgoing correlation.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Desmond