DFS Alerts
Gleyber Torres moves up to fifth after homering in the first game of today's double-header
For the second game of their double-header against the Tigers, the Yankees are sitting a couple of middle of the order left-handed bats (Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius) against Mike Fiers, who really hasn’t exhibited much of a platoon split since last season. Batters from either side of the plate are separated by less than two points of wOBA and five points of xwOBA since last season. His overall .342 xwOBA this season is right around the same range as well. Detroit is the only positive run environment on this four game slate and the Yankees have one of two implied run lines above four runs at 5.55, which is easily the highest on the board. It would be easy to recite the numbers of the thunder in this Yankee lineup, but suffice to know the first seven batters in the lineup all exceed a 110 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year with the two through six hitters all above a .230 ISO. The big news here is Gleyber Torres (159 wRC+, .287 ISO) in the fifth spot. His cost is rapidly rising, but those numbers don’t even include his first game HR today.
Other tagged players: Mike Fiers
Daily Bullpen Alert: Teams with top Vegas run lines also to face the worst bullpens
Clayton Richard is the only pitching averaging more than six innings per start on tonight’s board. In fact, he’s the only one even near it and with a strong bullpen behind him (3.45 FIP, 16.4 K-BB%) this is probably one spot players shouldn’t look to attack tonight. The also generally applies to the Yankees (3.11 FIP, 22.6 K-BB%). The top spot to attack is the Kansas City situation. Danny Duffy allows the loudest contact on the board and has the worst bullpen in baseball behind him (4.98 FIP, 8.4 K-BB%). Players will certainly be heavy on Yankee bats and a Detroit bullpen with a 4.01 FIP and 11.3 K-BB% behind Mike Fiers shouldn’t change that thought process a bit. The Los Angeles (AL) pen is similar behind Nick Tropeano (4.11 FIP, 13.2 K-BB%). The remaining bullpens for the Braves, Giants and Diamondbacks are all upper-middle types with all owning a FIP between 3.63 and 3.83 and a K-BB between 12.4% and 13.1%.
Southpaw that Struggles with Right-Handed Power
The Diamondbacks have one of the best matchups on the board, but are playing in one of the worst ballparks for run production. On the season, Derek Holland has allowed a .382 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t had the best start to the season, but still owns a .460 xwOBA and a 49% hard contact rate against southpaws.
Load up on the Righties in this Matchup
The Angels are right there with the Yankees as the top stack of the slate. As mentioned above, Danny Duffy hasn’t allowed many runs in his last two starts, but the peripheral statistics don’t support a positive change in fantasy production. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and he has a below-average strikeout rate. On the season, he has allowed a .406 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. If you are fading Mike Trout tonight, you are doing it wrong. He owns a .500 xwOBA with a .405 ISO against southpaws this season.
Closest we have to a Safe Play at Pitcher
Tropeano isn’t a pitcher that I want to trust, but his numbers as a whole have been solid this season. He currently owns a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, but some of that is negated in this ballpark. Angels Stadium is one of the toughest in baseball when it comes to home run production. He pitched well against the Royals earlier in the season and he checks into tonight’s game as a -180 favorite. There is no such thing as a safe pitching play tonight, but Tropeano is the closest to it.
Finally Throwing a Full Complement of Pitches
The biggest knock on German this season has been his pitch count, but he threw 104 in his last outing. Overall, he’s had an excellent season, posting a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He does have a high walk rate, but that’s not a huge concern in a four-game slate with limited pitching options. The projected lineup for the Tigers has five hitters with a strikeout rate of at least 20% against right-handed pitching and with this being the second game of the double-header, there’s a chance that we see a watered down lineup from Detroit.
Contrary to what Vegas run lines imply, pitching is extremely thin on tonight's four game slate
To look at the Vegas run lines, one might assume that tonight’s little four game slate is pitching rich. Only two teams eclipse four implied runs (and do so by a lot). Yet only two pitchers are below a four SIERA, only one is above a 21.4 K% (and he’s started just four games) and only one has an xwOBA below .330 (the same guy). It’s actually mostly a function of negative run environments on the west coast hosting three of the four games. The best pitcher on the board may be Clayton Richard. He’s gone at least seven innings in three of four starts and his 21.2 K% over the last month is second best on tonight’s board. For the season, he has the top ground ball rate (56.5%) and second lowest xwOBA (.330) tonight. Unfortunately, he faces an Atlanta offense with a split best 120 wRC+ and 17.6 K% vs LHP, but he at least gets to do so in San Diego at a middle of the board price tag (just $6.2K on DraftKings). Domingo German threw a career high 104 pitches in his last start and has had nearly a week off to recover. Positives include a board high 27.5 K%, which he’s maintained (26.7%) in a starting role over the last month, along with lowest aEV on the board by far (85.9 mph). Negatives would be an 11.4 BB% and an opposing offense with just a 20.9 K% vs RHP in the only positive run environment in play in Detroit. The Tigers have just a 6.8 BB% and 8.3 HR/FB vs RHP however. Zack Godley is the most expensive arm on the board, but his velocity is down, he has just a 20 K% over the last month and only Danny Duffy has a higher xwOBA than his .366 mark tonight. Two of the three pitches he throws more than 20% of the time have an .440 xwOBA and his curveball has a reverse platoon split, while he’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed offense. The good news is that this offense also has a 17.9 K-BB% against RHP this year, just lost their top bat (Brandon Belt) and play in a very pitcher friendly park.
Other tagged players: Domingo German, Zack Godley Power Stack
The Yankees are the top overall stack on Monday’s short slate and it’s not particularly close. Fiers has always struggled with containing the long ball and this year has been no different as he’s already given up 11 HRs in 54.2 IP (1.81 HR/9). The Yankees and the league’s second best ISO (.214) versus RHP are unlikely to be the cure to Fiers homer prone tendencies. It also doesn’t look like Fiers will catch any breaks of a watered down Yankees lineup as Gary Sanchez is not in Game 1’s lineup and is scheduled to be behind the plate for Game 2, keeping New York’s power onslaught in tact.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius
Highest Upside
German has the highest upside of all pitchers on Monday night as he’ll square off against a weak Tigers offense (89 wRC+ versus RHP). German cruised to 30+ DK points his first start of the year recording nine strikeouts along the way and showing he has a lot of upside in a tough matchup against the Cleveland Indians. He’s thrown a few stinkers since but threw 104 pitches his last start so he should have a decent leash, especially with this being the second game of a double-header. German is the only pitcher going that has double-digit strikeout potential and should be a staple of your GPP lineups despite expected high ownership.
Wide Splits
Teheran’s projection is largely dependent on the lineup the Padres decide to run out. Julio has some of the widest splits that you’ll see from a pitcher that has as big of a sample as him – lefties smash him (.340 wOBA, 4.90 xFIP, 16.9 K%, 9.6 BB%) whereas he is an above average pitcher against righties (.270 wOBA, 3.56 xFIP, 24.2 K%, 4.8 BB%). It seems likely the Padres will run out at least four lefties, in which case he’s a fine play given the context of the slate, but if he catches a break and gets to square off against a righty dominant lineup then his projection will see a favorable boost.
Beggars Can't Be Choosers
Comerica is the only hitter’s park in play on Monday night so naturally we’re going to end up stacking some teams that contextually do not have a favorable environment. The Diamondbacks are one of those teams as they’ll square off against a rejuvenated Derek Holland at pitcher friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco. Holland is one of the weaker pitchers on the slate as his 4.80 SIERA, 19.4 K% and 7.8 SwStr% are actually marked improvements over the last couple of years. A Diamondbacks stack is a bit limited as you’re unlikely to get power out of anyone not named Paul Goldschmidt but beggars can’t be choosers on this short slate.
Other tagged players: Nick Ahmed, Chris Owings, John Ryan Murphy Righty Bats
After the Yankees, the Angels have the second highest implied run total on the slate – 5 runs. The matchup is an interesting one as Danny Duffy has looked significantly better his last two starts (13.2 IP, 2 ER) after he seemingly fixed what was ailing him to start the year (there was a lot of talk about him tipping pitches). If Duffy has legitimately made sustainable changes, he is one of the top GPP options of the slate – if his two recent strong starts were largely a result of facing weak offenses, then the Angels are a top GPP stack of the slate. I think we’re likely experiencing the latter, as while Duffy put up some nice base stats, he still allowed a ton of hard contact and had below average strikeout rates. Long story short, don’t be picky here – Angels righty bats are one of the strongest stacks of the night.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Ian Kinsler Are We Really Playing Him?
It’s crazy that we’re looking at a pitcher with a 4.98 xFIP and a 10.9% walk rate on this slate. His walk rate goes down and his strikeout rate goes up against right-handed hitters. Teheran should face five right-handed hitters, and the lefties in this lineup really don’t scare me, outside of Hosmer. The San Diego projected starting lineup has a combined .121 ISO with a .292 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Teheran has struggled with power bats this season, but with his ability to strike out hitters, it’s hard not to like him in this matchup.
Low Owned Value Option
We don’t have a lot of value options tonight, but two of my favorite value plays are shortstops. While I really like Ahmed, I think Swanson is a good pivot in tournaments. I do think Ahmed is the safer option. Swanson has a .259 ISO with a 42.1% hard hit rate against left-handed pitching. He has a .335 wOBA with a .445 CXwOBA, and there are a lot of signs for positive regression. Richard has a .192 ISO with a 90.1 average exit velocity and a 40.9% hard hit rate against righties.
Should Hit Second Tonight
Derek Holland has pitched a little better this season, but he continues to be awful against right-handed hitters. We don’t have a ton of value bats tonight, so I really like the idea of paying down at shortstop. Ahmed has a .321 ISO with a .383 wOBA and an 80% contact rate against left-handed pitching this season. I point out the high contact rate because Holland does have a 21.6% strikeout rate against righties this season. With that said, he also has a .351 wOBA with a .251 ISO and a 43.2% hard hit rate against righties. I’m all over the Arizona righties tonight, as I think it’s a good way to pivot off the Yankees or Angels.