DFS Alerts
The Ship Has Been Righted
The season opened disastrously for Ian Kinsler, but there was never much drop off from his previous skills, he simply had an outlandishly low BABIP. He has heated up and shown enough to me to prove that he is basically the same hitter as ever. In the past week he has three home runs and four multi-hit games. Almost certainly, the recent hot streak is a mirage, just as the early season struggles were a mirage. We can count on the raw skills which show elite contact ability at the top of a good lineup against a very beatable pitcher.
You Know What In The Outfield
It’s Angels In The Outfield! The Yankees should be the chalky expensive bats tonight and for good reason, but the Angels outfield tandem of Mike Trout and Justin Upton have just as much upside as the Bronx Bombers tonight. Trout is so expensive, that when factoring in their splits and salaries, I would lean towards locking in Upton first. Danny Duffy has shown absolutely no ability to limit hard contact to righties, allowing 2.32 HR/9 this season. Since the start of 2017, it is Upton, not Trout, who has the highest ISO, wOBA and hard hit rate for the Angels against left-handed pitching.
Still Hitting Lefties
Even in what has been a down season so far, Paul Goldschmidt’s skills have held up against lefties, with a 49% hard hit rate leading to a .436 ISO and .477 wOBA. With Derek Holland once again getting blasted by right-handed batters, with a .358 wOBA and 1.76 HR/9 allowed, not even this ballpark is enough to hold back the power upside of Goldschmidt in this matchup.
Chad Bettis has a 5.06 xFIP and 4.4% K-BB% versus RHB this season
Bettis comes into Sunday’s matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers following two consecutive blowup home outings at Coors Field, as he allowed at least five earned runs on both occasions and failed to strike out more than three hitters in each start. Bettis had been a candidate for regression all year long prior to this most recent stretch, so it appears that some that regression has finally come to fruition, though it may be far from over with his 4.82 SIERA still more than a full run higher than his 3.68 ERA through 11 appearances this season. The low 15.2% strikeout rate is nothing new for Bettis, as his career mark is just 16.5%, but the elevated 8.2% walk rate certainly is uncharacteristic, especially over last season’s pristine 5.5% walk rate, which has greatly contributed to his rising ERA and SIERA over the last month. Bettis has exhibited some slight reverse splits this season, so right-handed hitters like Chris Taylor (0.216 ISO, 0.423 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), Matt Kemp (0.204 ISO, 0.455 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), and Yasiel Puig (0.247 ISO, 0.429 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) all remain firmly in play for all formats and their projected value shouldn’t be dinged just because they sacrifice the platoon advantage in this matchup. That said, Bettis is still attackable from the left-side of the plate as well, which makes Yasmani Grandal (0.229 ISO, 0.407 xwOBA, 39.1% HH% vs RHP since 2017) and Max Muncy (0.276 ISO, 0.541 xwOBA, 50.8% HH% vs RHP since 2017) the top Dodgers lefties to target, while Joc Pederson (0.198 ISO, 0.376 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) is also showing signs of breaking out of his slump, leaving him on the radar as a potential contrarian option for tournaments this afternoon.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Chad Bettis
The confirmed Mets lineup has combined for a 0.110 ISO and 0.277 wOBA versus LHP since 2017
There are slim pickings at the starting pitcher position on Sunday’s main slate, and Jon Lester appears to be the best of the bunch, in large part due to his matchup with the New York Mets on the road and overall consistency, as he’s allowed more than two earned runs on just one occasion in his last six starts. As briefly mentioned, the viability of Lester for daily fantasy formats this afternoon is more about how terrible the Mets have been against left-handed pitching this season than Lester’s skill set at this point in his career, as the Mets rank dead last in wOBA and also own the second-highest strikeout versus lefties, increasing both his floor and ceiling in this matchup. He also continues to be a solid -148 favorite road favorite over New York, who have been tagged with the lowest implied total (3.4) on the main slate, which just further attests to their offensive struggles versus southpaws thus far. Lester currently sports a respectable 2.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the year, but his eroding advanced statistics tell a different story, as he has a 4.37 SIERA, 34.3% hard-hit percentage, and 36.6% groundball rate, all numbers he hasn’t sniffed since his first two years in the big leagues. Still, with how atrocious the Mets are against lefties and the lack of other viable options on the slate, Lester still checks in as arguably the top target on the entire board for cash games and tournaments and can be had at discount as the second-most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and just the fourth-most expensive on FanDuel this afternoon.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Sunday's NYY-BAL game postponed due to inclement weather
The matchup between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles on Sunday afternoon has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the day. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Saturday, August 25 at 1:05 pm EST as part of a split doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Sunday’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Marc Carig via Twitter Multiple Exposure
There are a handful of teams you want exposure to for Sunday’s main slate – NYY, WAS, + MIL headline all sites, while you can add LAD + COL to DraftKings and Fantasy Draft. Trying to figure out where to get your Brewers exposure is a little difficult. Yelich is the “best” option but also pricey making him more of a secondary option for cash games. Ji-Man Choi is the most cost effective way to get exposure to the Brewers offense and it’s helpful that he has both 1B + OF eligibility on DK.
Other tagged players: Ji-Man Choi
Enjoying Coors
Chris Taylor has really enjoyed the first two games of the series as he followed up Friday night’s 30 point DK performance with 21 more points on Saturday. It’s likely he’ll continue to lead off on Sunday and if he does he remains under priced on DraftKings where he’s only $4,400. FanDuel left the Coors game off their main slate so you’ll have to look elsewhere in cash there – Trea Turner is my preferred spend at the SS position on FD if you have the salary to spend.
SP2 Toss Up
UPDATE: No Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo for the Cubs boosts Matz to my top SP2 option on multi-SP sites. Figuring out SP2 is either going to be what decides if you make money on Sunday or it’s going to be totally irrelevant. If you think it’s going to be totally irrelevant, it makes sense to go cheap and take a few risks, i.e. Steven Matz, Michael Fulmer, Brent Suter. If you think it’s going to be important to nail SP2, then the “safest” option appears to be Michael Wacha against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The problem with Wacha, much like all pitching options on Sunday, is that he’s largely unimpressive – he’s actually below average in many important categories (4.42 SIERA, 40.9 Hard%, 9.9 SwStr%) so it’s tough to stomach paying full price for a SP2 that seemingly doesn’t have a ton of upside. My current lean is that there’s not a big enough delta between Wacha and the “tier three” pitchers to warrant paying Wacha’s price tag, but that lean may change as lineups come out.
Other tagged players: Steven Matz Load up on Brewers against Covey
While you can always look to Coors Field for offensive fireworks, my favorite stack of the day may actually be the Brewers squaring off against the gas-can that is Dylan Covey. First let’s look at Covey’s numbers – he has the second-lowest K% on the slate at only 14.3% and the third-highest BB% at 10.7%. So he doesn’t strike anyone out, and issues a lot of free passes – check. At first glance, it might appear that Covey is an extreme splits pitcher who contains RH hitters but gets bombed by lefties, but his solid 2018 wOBA allowed to RH hitters is only based on a small sample size of 17 IP. If we look at his career numbers he actually just gets destroyed by everyone, allowing wOBAs of .370 and .396 to lefties and righties respectively. Take advantage of people possibly being scared off by his 2018 wOBA allowed to RHH in limited action this year and load up on RHH as well. Finally, we also get the added bonuses that the Brewers are on the road, get a DH, and there is a solid 17+mph wind blowing straight out to center at Guaranteed Rate Field this afternoon. Everything points to the Brewers scoring and scoring often in this one – all 9 batters are in play today.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Lorenzo Cain
A Cheap Bat that Will Put the Ball in Play
The numbers for Solarte are just too good for him to be priced this cheap. Since 2017, Solarte owns a .192 ISO and a .332 wOBA. He should be batting near the top of the lineup and when TOR being the road team, he should see 5 AB’s. He gets a matchup against Fulmer who is a decent ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys. Solarte own a very good K rate himself (13.7%), so he’s likely to be putting the ball in a play a lot. This is more of a cash game play or a spot to round out a stack, but I wouldn’t argue with him as a GPP play.
Poster Boy
Anibal’s return from the DL went about as well as expected – he lasted only 4 innings and gave up two HRs. Last time Anibal hit the mound I highlighted his terrible HR problems his last few full seasons (2.22 HR/9 in 2017, 1.76 HR/9 in 2016, 1.66 HR/9 in 2015). This is a nut matchup for Nationals lefty power specifically at SunTrust in Atlanta and Bryce Harper is the poster boy.
Barf Worthy Slate
You know it’s a barf worthy slate when Jon Lester is the de facto SP1 option. Lester actually is the owner of a 2.71 ERA through 63 IP so far this year but his advanced metrics aren’t nearly as pretty (4.32 SIERA, 36.6 GB%). Regardless, there simply aren’t any other SP1 options to really consider on Sunday so you’ll have to stomach rostering Lester in a very favorable matchup against a Mets team that owns a 26.8 K% and league worst 66 wRC+ versus LHP.
Old Reliable
Joyce hasn’t done great on the year, but there’s a reason why he’s generally near the top of the order going up against a righty. Over the last 2 years, Joyce owns a decent .338 wOBA and a good .229 ISO vs. RHP. He gets a matchup against Junis who is giving up a lot of hard contact on the season (36.1%) and a lot of fly balls (39.9%). Add in that the A’s have a implied run totoal of around 5 and they’re batting on the road so, barring Joyce getting pintch hit for, he could end up with 5 AB’s in this matchup.
Nick Kingham paces Sunday's main slate with a 26.0% K% and 3.28 SIERA
I’ll start by saying it’s a brutal day for pitching. Without a single “must-play” option, ownership should be fairly spread out and you’ll have to play some imperfect options. That said, if I told you there was a pitcher with the highest K%, lowest SIERA and lowest BB% on the main slate, you’d probably think he was worth consideration. Today, that pitcher is Nick Kingham. The fact that Kingham’s 26% K-rate is the highest on the main slate really tells you all you need to know about the quality of pitching in general, but I digress. Kingham does appear to be the victim of some bad luck in recent starts, as his SIERA is a solid 3.28, despite possessing an actual ERA of 3.75. He also has shown excellent control, only walking 4.2% of batters. While the Cardinals aren’t an offense that you often want to pick on, they do have an exploitable 23.2 K% to RHP. This all points to Kingham being a viable option on a rough pitching slate, with both a reasonably high floor and ceiling due to his strikeout upside.