DFS Alerts
Max Scherzer (40.9 K%) has one of the top matchups on the board in Miami
Friday night’s slate features five pitchers above the $10K mark on either or both sites, along with one more above $9K. Corey Kluber has the lowest strikeout (26%) and swinging strike (10.6%) rates among those arms. Four of them have a 30% strikeout rate or better and the other one who doesn’t (Noah Syndergaard) has a 14.6 SwStr% that’s second best on the board. All this could start and end with Max Scherzer (40.9 K%, 17.2 SwStr%, .252 xwOBA all lead the board by a nice margin) in Miami tonight if there are no concerns about cost ($12-14K) or ownership. Syndergaard costs around $10.5K on either site and has some upside in his matchup in Milwaukee (24.8 K% vs RHP). Patrick Corbin has seen a sharp decrease in strikeouts over the last month (27.3%), but is still at 33.3% on the season and in a decent matchup in Oakland (93 wRC+, 17.1 K-BB% vs LHP). James Paxton is in a similarly favorable spot hosting the Twins (97 wRC+, 24.6 K%, 7.6 HR/FB vs LHP), but has struck out just 19 of 83 batters since his 16 strikeout performance, though two of his last three have been complete games, including a no-hitter. He costs $11.9K on DraftKings. Luis Severino has at least six strikeouts in every start. His 23.7 K-BB% is almost a full point better than last year, but he faces a difficult Angels’ lineup (108 wRC+, 19.8 K% vs RHP) at Yankee Stadium. Corey Kluber struck out 10 Astros in his last start and faces them again in a much more positive run environment in Cleveland. He’s failed to pitch into the seventh inning in just one of 10 starts this season, but has allowed 11 HRs with six or fewer strikeouts in seven of 10 starts this season. Low cost pitchers to consider pairing with high priced guys on DraftKings include Joe Musgrove in his Pittsburgh debut against the Cardinals, John Gant on the other side of that matchup has league average peripherals in his short major league career, Jose Urena has gone seven innings three times this season and hasn’t allowed more than four runs since his first start. HIs estimators and xwOBA (.331) all suggest he could be a near league average pitcher and he pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
Other tagged players: Noah Syndergaard, Patrick Corbin, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, Joe Musgrove, John Gant, Jose Urena
Mildly Disappointing
An already low Royals implied run total given the context (mid-90’s in Arlington) has started to drop at the time of this writing (4.4). Minor has been mildly disappointing with an average strikeout rate so far this year (21.9%) but has otherwise been solid as his 3.85 SIERA would indicate. He has less than an ideal batted ball profile given the environment (40.8 Hard%; 42.5 FB%) but his $4,400 price tag keeps him in play on DraftKings against a slightly below average Royals offense. I do prefer Musgrove in all formats if going this cheap.
Priced Inefficiently
Joe Musgrove is a good pitcher that is priced inefficiently because he is making his season debut after recovering from a shoulder injury. We saw a similar inefficiency with Ross Stripling recently and while Stripling is about the most optimistic comparison possible, the point is that similar to Stripling, Musgrove is a talented pitcher. This is a pretty average matchup for Musgrove against the Cardinals (23.2 K%; 97 wRC+ vs RHP) but he does get the benefit of this game being played in pitcher friendly PNC Park. Musgrove threw 96 pitches in his last rehab start on May 18 so pitch count shouldn’t be a problem here, especially with such a low price tag.
Good Context
The Good: 1) Delino is cheap. 2) The Rangers have an implied run total over five runs. The Bad: 1) Delino is terrible. DeShields is just a cheap way to get access to a team that is expected to put up a lot of runs. The context is good for Delino – he gets the platoon against a struggling left-handed pitcher in Skoglund who is the owner of a .402 xWOBA, which is the 10th highest of all pitchers that have recorded 150+ plate appearances. DeShields isn’t going to give you any power (.104 ISO) and it’s not a great stolen base matchup but it’s a good spot for him to get on base and score a couple of runs, which you would be happy with for his price tag.
Cheap Power
Junior Guerra has been real good for the Brewers but it’s hard for me to believe he’s this good. Despite a 2.98 ERA, Guerra is allowing well above the league average for hard contact allowed by starters this year (42.5% vs 35.2%). He’s also doing a poor job at limiting fly balls relative to the field (40.9% vs 35.8%). With that batted ball data, Guerra has been very lucky to have only allowed three HRs on the year (0.64 HR/9; 6.7 HR/FB). Those HR numbers aren’t sustainable as long as batters continue to to put up similar batted ball numbers. I like Jay Bruce as a cheap way to take a shot at Guerra’s poor batted ball profile and I like other Mets lefties in GPPs as well.
A Bit Crazy
This is going to sound a little crazy but Justin Bour is an option in all formats on DraftKings on Friday night – even if you are using Max Scherzer as one of your starting pitchers. Heck, especially if you are using the $14,000 Max Scherzer as one of your starting pitchers. There is no doubt that Scherzer has been absolutely dominant this year but lefty hitters at least have a fighting chance against him (.274 wOBA vs LHB; .183 wOBA vs RHB). Bour is the most talented hitter you’re going to find close to this price range and his power gives you a shot at the best possible outcome if rostering both Bour + Scherzer – either a strikeout or a solo shot. Bour is a bit of a stretch to even use in GPPs on FanDuel where he’s $3,400.
The Team To Focus On
The Rockies are far and away the top offense on this slate, returning to Coors Field to face Sal Romano, who would be one of the top pitchers to attack even in a different ballpark. Romano has shown no ability at all to control batted balls to lefties, along with low strikeouts. Gerardo Parra is the best contact lefty for the Rockies, and ideally will get a middle of the order lineup spot, making him close to a cash game lock, and an important piece in Rockies stacks.
The Team To Focus On
The Rockies are far and away the top offense on this slate, returning to Coors Field to face Sal Romano, who would be one of the top pitchers to attack even in a different ballpark. Romano has shown no ability at all to control batted balls to lefties, along with low strikeouts. If Dahl bats second tonight, he is an easy cash game play and key piece of any Rockies stack.
Perfect Matchup To Save Some Salary
If you’re paying up for Max Scherzer tonight, it will be nearly impossible to use a second ace. If you’re skipping Scherzer, then I’d recommend two of the other aces. But, to pair with Max, I like Ross Stripling against the Padres and their high strikeout rate against righties. There is still some risk based on the small sample size of Stripling as a starter, but there’s really no clear flaw in his skill set over the past two seasons. The only caveat is that it’s mostly been out of the bullpen, but he went 96 pitches in his last start, so that shouldn’t be a big issue. Between the 2017-2018 numbers, he has well above average strikeouts, well below average walks and very limited hard contact allowed.
Ace of Aces
Even on a loaded pitching slate with at least five aces, Scherzer still stands out as the the clear top option with no real case to go anywhere else. He is easily the best pitcher in baseball right now, with 104 strikeouts in 66 innings with seven double digit K game already this season. Tonight, he faces a Miami team that ranks dead last in the league in runs scored as is also dead last in ISO against righties. The best pitcher in the league against possibly the worst team in the league? You know what to do.
Rangers in a Great Bounce-Back Spot
The Rangers disappointed last night against a bad lefty in Danny Duffy, but Eric Skoglund is an even worse variety of “bad lefty” and they should have no problem bouncing back tonight. Skoglund has allowed a wOBA of .392 to LH hitters and .403 to RH hitters this season, and is only generating a swinging strike rate of 7.9% – one of the lowest on the slate. For a team like the Rangers that has strikeout issues, facing a pitcher who doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses is key to their ability to turn their lineup over, and the viability of the stack. It doesn’t hurt that they’re playing at home at Globe Life Park, which yields 21.4% above the league average in runs per game and 17% above the league average for HR’s. Throw in some 90 degree weather and you have a recipe for a big night for this Rangers offense, at possibly lower ownership than normal due to their bad performance last night.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields
Hunting for a Cheap Stack
Let me start this by saying there is absolutely nothing exciting about stacking the Rays. However, if you are looking to load up on pitching tonight and use a guy like Charlie Blackmon into a lineup, you just might need a cheap stack. That’s where the Rays come in, as they would potentially allow you to get a lineup with two ace pitchers on the multi-pitcher sites. They also draw a good matchup against 24 year-old David Hess, who has struggled in his first two major league starts. Combining those factors makes the Rays a little more viable than normal. If you choose to stack them up, I would stick to the top portion of the order, as this squad really drops off at the bottom half.
Other tagged players: Joey Wendle, Wilson Ramos
Stripling a High-Floor Value Option
On a slate where quality values at SP2 are both essential for pairings with one of the top aces and also relatively hard to come by, Ross Stripling is the option that jumps off the page as providing both safety and value at a reasonable price tag. Stripling is a -200 favorite, pitching at home, and facing an anemic Padres offense with the third-highest team K% on the slate. While none of Stripling’s peripherals may stand out, he has had a respectable 25.5% K rate paired with a 47% ground ball rate that has allowed him to go deeper into games and avoid blowups. On sites where you need an SP2, Stripling is a great cash game option that still allows you to get one of the top aces and strong bats in your lineup.
Easily the Top Spot for Offense
What happens when we have Coors Field back in our lives and the Rockies get to face the starting pitcher with the lowest swinging strike rate in baseball? Runs will most likely be what happens. This is just a brutal spot for Sal Romano, especially when you throw in his 11% walk rate. This could get very ugly very quickly. You need to put some Colorado bats in your cash game lineups tonight, and they are way ahead of the field when it comes to GPP stacks. Charlie Blackmon is the top overall hitter on the board, and this whole lineup is in play. You can possibly argue a GPP fade due to ownership, as the Colorado ownership will be a bit high for a full slate, but that’s about the only argument for the other side.
Other tagged players: David Dahl, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra Time for a Breakout?
I’m still not buying anything in the realm of long-term success for Zach Eflin. This is still a pitcher with a SIERA and xFIP over 5.00 in his major league innings with a 13% career strikeout. Yes, he will probably improve some, but he’s not going to be a pitcher who holds on to the 1.54 ERA that he currently has. Left-handed bats are what you want to target against Eflin, as he has allowed a wOBA near .380 against them for his career, and his strikeout rate drops even lower. It’s been a difficult year for the Blue Jays offense, but this could be a nice time to buy low. Justin Smoak is my favorite power option today assuming he draws the start at first base, as the Blue Jays do lose their designated hitter here. Curtis Granderson will be one of the more popular value plays today, and Solarte is a fine option to round out a mini-stack of left-handed hitters.
Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Curtis Granderson