DFS Alerts
Sonny Gray has completed five innings just once with the worst aEV (92.1 mph) on the board
Sonny Gray is off to a disastrous start. He’s completed five innings just once and has walked nine with just four strikeouts over his last two starts (43 BF). He’s not generating ground balls, which his 92.1 mph aEV and 48.6% 95+ mph EV are both worst on the board. Not only should players avoid him, but they should be rostering bats against him if ownership projections suggest his name still carries weight. While he’s struggling to get anyone out, a .400+ wOBA against RHBs this season has pushed his actual wOBA to .330 against same-handed batters since last season. Every batter in this lineup (every single one) has exceeded a 100 wRC+ and .160 ISO vs RHP since last season. Remove Evan Gattis and Alex Bregman and the remaining seven are all above a 105 wRC+ and .180 ISO. Aside from the big three (Springer, Altuve, Correa), nobody else is priced above $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Corporan, Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman, Sonny Gray
Eduardo Rodriguez has the top swinging strike rate (14.3%) and third best xwOBA (.271) on the board
Eduardo Rodriguez has gone at least six innings in three straight starts with a 12+ SwStr% in all four. He gets the Royals (92 wRC+ vs LHP) at home for around $7.5K on either site. I don’t understand the low cost. As expected, Ned Yost will ignore a slight reverse split (RHBs .308 wOBA since last season, LHBs .320) and drop his left-handed bats in the order in favor of the dangerous Cheslor Cuthbert (93 wRC+, .147 ISO vs LHP since 2017) batting fifth. Rodriguez has a 28.8 K% at home since last season and his 14.3 SwStr% overall in 2018 is highest on the board tonight. His .271 xwOBA is third best. He has just as much upside with potentially less risk than higher priced arms tonight. It makes so much sense to drop down and roster him tonight. Kevin does have some weather concerns in this game, though it does not appear to be a delay situation once they start. Players will want to make sure that’s still the case later.
Other tagged players: Cheslor Cuthbert The Phillies have a 27.2 K% vs RHP and a 30 K% over the last seven days
Dan Straily is coming off the DL with a forearm injury (always concerning) and there aren’t any velocity readings for his three rehab starts. All were below AAA, with the most important result being that he has faced 46 batters over his last two starts, which gives him the possibility of getting in six innings with some efficiency. He turned a career high 12.1 SwStr% into a career high 22.1 K% last year with lots of fly balls and some home run issues, which is why it’s a good thing he’s facing the Phillies (27.2 K% vs RHP, 30 K% last seven days) in Miami rather than Philadelphia. This would appear to be one of the higher upside matchups on the board. His cost is a fraction of some similarly risky pitchers tonight (around $6K on either site). Dropping down and saving some salary in the secondary pitching slot on DraftKings could make some sense tonight. The Phillies have just a 4.06 implied run line that’s bottom half of the board. That said, Straily is an extreme fly ball pitcher with right-handed batters owning a 35.9 Hard% against him since last year. Rhys Hoskins (166 wRC+, .400 xwOBA, .303 ISO, 41.3 Hard% vs RHP since last year) and possibly even Aaron Altherr (114 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP, 175 wRC+, 52.9 Hard% last seven days) could do some damage here.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Altherr Winds blowing out at Wrigley could make some Colorado bats more attractive on the road
Jon Lester has shown no consistency this season, but has gone at least six innings in three of his last four and the opposing pitcher is generally worth a look against the Rockies whenever you catch them on the road. With LeMahieu out, just four batters have a wRC+ above 100 against LHP since last season, but wind conditions at Wrigley (up to 25 mph blowing out to left) could make it play like Coors tonight. Right-handed batters have .343 wOBA (.336 xwOBA) against Lester since last season (LHBs .235 and .250) making Nolan Arenado (216 wRC+, .454 xwOBA, .397 ISO vs LHP since 2017), Trevor Story (148 wRC+, .345 ISO, 47.7 Hard%) and Chris Iannetta (135 wRC+, .229 ISO) all viable plays, even on the road, especially if ownership projections have them being unpopular with just a 4.19 implied run line. Ownership rate projections will be available to premium subscribers later on both the Projected Ownership page and in LineupHQ.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta Tampa Bay Rays have a team 170 wRC+ and 20 HR/FB last seven days
While the Tampa Bay lineup (4.65 implied runs) still gives one pause, they just keep pummeling baseballs (170 wRC+, 20 HR/FB last seven days) and now get to face Jordan Zimmermann tonight. Zim with two Ns is missing more bats (24.4 K%), but has still allowed at least four runs in every start and has a .413 xwOBA over the last 30 days (minus his first start) that’s worst on the board. Batters from either side of the plate have exceeded both a .350 xwOBA and actual wOBA against him since last season. Where is this offense coming from? Usable bats include Denard Span (114 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Joey Wendle (142 wRC+, .203 ISO), while Matt Duffy has returned looking to make up for a lot of lost time (180 wRC+, 71.4 Hard% last seven days). All are at least reasonably priced.
Other tagged players: Matt Duffy, Joey Wendle, Jordan Zimmermann Jake Arrieta is riding his sinker (67%) to tons of weak ground balls, but few swings and misses
Jake Arrieta is throwing his sinker two-thirds of the time this season and while it’s led to great contact management results (67.2 GB% and -6.7 Hard-Soft%), along with more than six innings in three straight starts, it doesn’t miss many bats. He struck out 10 Pirates two starts back, but sandwiched it with a total of three against the D’Backs and Rays. He hasn’t exceeded a 7 SwStr% in three of four starts. That said, a Miami lineup minus Justin Bour is unlikely to do anything with him tonight. This particular lineup has a combined .292 wOBA and .125 ISO against RHP since last year. That’s an army of light hitting shortstops. Although Arrieta has over a 70 point wOBA split in his platoon favoring LHBs since last season, the Marlins send just one of those at him tonight and are one of three teams with an implied run line below three and a half. Arrieta is probably the high cost arm players feel safest with tonight, but he’s not going to miss many bats if he continues with this approach.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ J.D. Martinez (150 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP) remains a top bat against Jason Hammel, who struggles against all batters
On paper, everything points to a Boston (second best 5.29 implied runs) romp of Jason Hammel (12.8 K% with a 5.03 SIERA 1.65 points above his ERA). The Red Sox have a 129 wRC+ (17.8 K%) vs RHP, but an 85 wRC+ (28.1 K%) overall in the last seven days. Mookie Betts is out of the lineup and though it doesn’t appear a cancellation concern it’s likely to be wet and cold (< 50 degrees) in Boston tonight. Fenway may still be the top park on the board and batters from either side have a .340+ xwOBA against Hammels since last year. Players should still strongly consider paying up for J.D. Martinez (150 wRC+, .422 xwOBA, .337 ISO, 49.5 Hard% vs RHP since 2017). Mitch Moreland (103 wRC+, .217 ISO) is actually the only other guy in the lineup above a .200 ISO against RHP since last season, but he’s sporting a -81 wRC+ over the last week that’s the lowest in baseball among those with at least 10 PAs. Andrew Benintendi and Hanley Ramirez are both around league average or slightly better bats against RHP with an ISO in the .180 range since last season. Top of the order Red Sox will likely be popular tonight.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Hanley Ramirez, Jason Hammel Only two pitchers on tonight's slate have averaged more innings per start than Tanner Roark last two years
Tanner Roark just seems to find himself a part of boards where many of the other pitchers in his price range or above have some issues and today is no different. He’s not exciting, but only Greinke and Samardzija have averaged more innings per start over the last two calendar years. His 9.5 SwStr% is a bit misleading, as he’s only exceeded that in one start this year, but he’ll generally miss enough bats to be useful in six plus innings and he faces a Pittsburgh lineup with Sean Rodriguez (21 wRC+ vs RHP) batting third. In fact, PlateIQ generates just a .310 wOBA and .160 ISO for this confirmed lineup against RHP since last season. Unfortunately, that comes with just a 19.4 K% too, but what you might be looking for in Roark is a high floor that’s difficult to find tonight rather than immense upside. Gregory Polanco is really the most dangerous hitter in this lineup. He spent most of last year struggling with injuries, but has a .342 wOBA (.518 Contact xwOBA) with a .290 ISO vs RHP this season. Left-handed batters do have both a wOBA and xwOBA around .350 against Roark since last season, while he’s held right-handed batters below .300 with a 24.8 Hard% (53.4 GB%).
Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco, Sean Rodriguez Jameson Taillon has struggled (12 runs, 5.1 innings, three HRs, 45.8 Hard% last two starts)
Jameson Taillon is one of several $8K+ pitchers on today’s board who has run into trouble recently. He’s allowed 12 runs in 5.1 innings (three home runs) over his last two starts against the Phillies and Tigers. He’s struck out a total of eight over his last three starts. A 45.5 GB% (50% career) and 45.8 Hard% over his last two starts have come with a velocity bump. Never much of a bat misser, when the quality of his contact abandons him, it’s a bit worrisome. The good news is that his season numbers are still solid (22.2 K%, 54.8 GB%, .292 xwOBA), but even when he’s right, it’s more about weak ground balls than swings and misses, which makes him a difficult roster in this spot against a banged up, but still competent Washington offense. According to PlateIQ, this current lineup has a .342 wOBA and .195 ISO with a 21.9 K% vs RHP since last season. Premium subscribers will notice that conditional formatting makes this great tool even easier to navigate. The Nationals have just a 4.06 implied run line and players will still want to tread lightly if going against Taillon against whom RHBs have just a .280 xwOBA since 2017. Lefties are 60 points higher by both xwOBA and his actual wOBA. Bryce Harper (177 wRC+, .434 xwOBA, .339 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Matt Adams (133 wRC+, .263 ISO) might make some sense, especially with the latter costing exactly $2K on FanDuel. Check ownership projections later, but this may otherwise be a situation best left alone.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Jameson Taillon Lorenzo Cain (.379 xwOBA vs LHP since 2017) has great SB upside vs southpaw who can't find the plate (Brandon Finnegan)
The Brewers have a surprisingly low 67 wRC+ against LHP without a lot of power (8.8 HR/FB vs LHP, 4.2 HR/FB last seven days), but that could change tonight against Brandon Finnegan, who sports the highest xwOBA on today’s board (.411). He has just a 1.6 K-BB% with a board worst 45.6 Z-O-Swing% among pitchers with more than one start this year. It’s not that he can’t miss bats, but he can’t find the plate often enough to induce batters to swing at pitchers outside of the strike zone. The Brewers have a 4.91 implied run line that’s third highest on the board. In just seven starts over the last two seasons, Finnegan has not been able to get anyone out (LHBs .418 xwOBA, RHBs .349 xwOBA). Though the top of the order for Milwaukee is expensive, anyone with a competent bat against southpaws is in play. Lorenzo Cain (139 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP since 2017) is not only the top bat in the order vs LHP by xwOBA (.379), but also doubles as a significant stolen base threat tonight. Premium subscribers can great stolen base upside tonight on the Stolen Base Threat Ratings page. Domingo Santana (106 wRC+, .189 ISO, 43.1 Hard%) is the value play here. Considering Flannigan’s substantial control issues, this lineup may work better as a stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Other tagged players: Domingo Santana, Brandon Finnegan Joey Votto (272 wRC+, four HRs last seven days) in a great spot against Jhoulys Chacin (LHBs .359 xwOBA since last season)
The Cincinnati Reds have just a middling 4.59 implied run line against Jhoulys Chacin, but this is a pitcher with significant platoon splits (LHBs .348 wOBA, .359 xwOBA, 34.1 Hard% since 2017) that is missing very few bats this year (6.7 SwStr%), who player will want to liberally attack with any competent left-handed hitters, especially in one of the most power friendly parks in the league. Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .443 xwOBA, .242 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is on fire (272 wRC+, 50 Hard%, four HRs last seven days) and the obvious target here. Jesse Winker (150 wRC+, .393 xwOBA, .193 ISO) is a great value play around the $3K mark on either site. Scott Schebler (103 wRC+, .267 ISO) bats cleanup tonight. Chacin’s 92.9 Z-Contact% is worst on the board and his 42.6% 95+ mph EV is third worst.
Other tagged players: Jhoulys Chacin, Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler Cubs have the top implied run line on the board (5.8) with wind blowing out at Wrigley
The Chicago Cubs have the highest implied run line on the board at 5.8 runs at Wrigley against Kyle Freeland and one potential reason for that is that Kevin’s forecast has winds blowing out to left up to 25 mph. Kyle Freeland is not otherwise a poor pitcher, though his ground ball rate has dropped 58.9% against right-handed batters to 46.9%, while he’s struck out 30% of LHBs in his career. Although value may be hard to come by in this lineup, look towards right-handed power bats in Kris Bryant (161 wRC+, .444 xwOBA, .226 ISO vs LHP since 2017), Javier Baez (111 wRC+, .242 ISO) and less expensively, both Willson Contreras (138 wRC+, .404 xwOBA, .233 ISO) and Albert Almora (152 wRC+, .182 ISO). Freeland is the odd Colorado pitcher who has struggled more on the road (14 IP – 10 ER – 7 BB – 12 K) than at Coors this year.
Other tagged players: Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Kyle Freeland, Albert Almora They Call it the Great American Ball Park for a Reason
The Brewers/Reds game is one of my favorite to stack tonight. They are playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball and we have two gas cans on the mound in Brandon Finnegan and Jhoulys Chacin. The sample size is small, but Finnegan has allowed a .349 xwOBA to righties over the last two seasons. In that same time period, Ryan Braun owns a .415 xwOBA and a .275 ISO against southpaws.
Always a Great Cash Game Play
Joey Votto is always a great cash game option when it comes to DFS. He has one of the highest on-base percentages in baseball and he still manages to have some power in his bat. He also plays in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball in the Great American Ball Park. The Reds draw an exploitable matchup against Jhoulys Chacin, who has allowed a .359 xwOBA to lefties since the beginning of last season.
Mashing Lefties to the Tune of a .444 xwOBA
Kris Bryant is one of the best hitters in baseball, especially when facing a left-handed pitcher. Since the beginning of last season, he owns a .444 xwOBA with a .226 ISO and a strikeout rate of only 16%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Kyle Freeland, who has struggled with right-handed power. We also have the wind blowing out to left field at a rate of 15+ MPH, which is always a big boost in Wrigley.