DFS Alerts
Hunter Renfroe has destroyed LHP (176 wRC+, .363 ISO) since 2017
Tyler Anderson has been frustratingly inconsistent since one of the best rookie pitcher seasons the Rockies have seen in 2016 and that’s continued this year with one strong start and one terrible before he even sees Coors. While it should be noted that the strong one was in San Diego last time out, the Padres have some left-mashers (RHBs .359 wOBA vs Anderson since last season) that should play here, even with Wil Myers out. Jose Pirela (148 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Hunter Renfroe (176 wRC+, .363 ISO) are surprisingly cheap on either site on this spot with Christian Villanueva (seven HRs in 59 career PAs overall) a bit more expensive after hammering three HRs in a single game last week. Manuel Margot (109 wRC+, .182 ISO) adds some speed at the top of the order for a team with the third highest implied run line tonight (4.69).
Other tagged players: Jose Pirela, Tyler Anderson, Christian Villanueva, Manuel Margot
Adam Eaton (ankle bone bruise) scratched Tuesday; Brian Goodwin replaces
Eaton has been scratched from the Washington Nationals original confirmed lineup and will not play in Tuesday’s matchup with the Atlanta Braves due to a left ankle bone bruise. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brian Goodwin, who will play left field and slot directly into Eaton’s leadoff spot in the order, which means that the remainder of the Nationals lineup will stay intact as they face off against Michael Foltynewicz this evening.
As reported by: Chelsea Janes via Twitter
Joey Lucchesi shut the Rockies down in San Diego, but Coors should be a different story
The Rockies (5.81) carry the highest implied run line by over a half run on Tuesday night when they face the left-handed rookie Joey Lucchesi for his second consecutive start. He one hit the Rockies for five innings, striking out seven of 18 batters in San Diego and has some deception to his delivery, but the advantage should be with the home team after already having seen him and now in their home park. Right-handed hitters have a 33.3 Hard% and 36.8 GB% against him in two starts, which could be disastrous at Coors. All of the batters players liked yesterday against another southpaw, should be highly coveted again: DJ LeMahieu (142 wRC+, .192 ISO vs LHP since 2017), Nolan Arenado (219 wRC+, .406 ISO), Trevor Story (139 wRC+, .325 ISO, 48.9 Hard%), Chris Iannetta (149 wRC+, .264 ISO) and you’re value play, Pat Valaika (95 wRC+, .273 ISO) for less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Joey Lucchesi, Patrick Valaika, Chris Iannetta Carlos Martinez still struggles with control against left-handed batters
Carlos Martinez is a boom or bust pitcher, who can either strike out 10 while dominating contact on the ground or walk the park. He has particular issues with LHBs, who have a .330 wOBA, 35 Hard% and double digit walk rate since last year. This is where those who are not using him can be a bit contrarian in looking for strong left-handed bats to roster against him despite the Brewers only having a 3.21 implied run line. Milwaukee fully recognizes this as Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun sit with Eric Sogard (109 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) atop the lineup. He has absolutely no power (.104 ISO), but costs less than $3K on either site, where a couple of walks and a run would suffice. Eric Thames (137 wRC+, .292 ISO, 43.4 Hard%) and Travis Shaw (130 wRC+, .249 ISO) are the bats you’d want exposure to if going this route. Both are below $4K on DraftKings. One remaining detractor from this approach is that St Louis is a difficult park to hit the ball out of early in the year.
Other tagged players: Eric Sogard, Travis Shaw, Carlos Martinez Reverse split, fly ball Jake Odorizzi faces the mighty Astros in a park that's RHB power friendly
Jake Odorizzi has a fly ball pitcher with a reverse platoon split and this is exactly the kind of matchup that could be a nightmare for him in Minnesota, a power friendly park for right-handed hitters. The Astros boast some of the best hitters in baseball against same-handed hitters at the top of their order in George Springer (126 wRC+, .225 ISO since last year), Jose Atuve (157 wRC+, .187 ISO) and Carlos Correa (142 wRC+, .242 ISO) with Alex Bregman (107 wRC+, .164 ISO) pulling up the slack. The bad news is that you’ll have to pay up for the big three. Against Odorizzi, RHBs have a .318 wOBA, but .333 xwOBA and 39.8 Hard% since last season. The only thing in his favor here may be continued cold weather, which may keep the ball from carrying as far as it normally would.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Corporan, Alex Bregman Martin Perez has allowed RHBs a .365 wOBA (.379 xwOBA) since last season
Only the Colorado Rockies have a higher implied run line than the Angels’ 5.12 in Texas tonight against Martin Perez. Facing a lineup where the first eight batters are right-handed, Perez is a frequently a gift to daily fantasy players in that park with RHBs hammering him for a .365 wOBA (.379 xwOBA) and 35.4 Hard% since last season. The Angels have three strong hitters against LHP: Mike Trout (151 wRC+, .209 ISO since 2017), Justin Upton (197 wRC+, .372 ISO) and Zack Cozart (167 wRC+, 2.87 ISO), none of whom are very cheap, though the latter two are in an affordable range. The issue is that it quickly goes from feast to famine. Only Andrelton Simmons (102) exceeds even an 85 wRC+ against southpaws since last year among the remaining batters with only Jefry Marte (.176) above a .110 ISO. Simmons, Marte and Albert Pujols (61 wRC+, .084 ISO – YUCK!!) should be batting often in RBI opportunities tonight, unless the big three take care of everything themselves.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Zack Cozart, Andrelton Simmons, Jefry Marte, Albert Pujols Left-handed batters have a .404 xwOBA against Felix Hernandez since last season
After a strong first start, walked five Giants and allowed three HRs in San Francisco of all parks last time out. LHBs now have a .354 wOBA against him since last year and if that’s not enough of a concern, the xwOBA for LHBs extends 50 points higher (.404). While Kansas City is not a power friendly park (though it is a positive run environment) and the Royals have just a 4.18 implied run line, both Lucas Duda (129 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Mike Moustakas (120 wRC+, .268 ISO) could supply low cost power (especially on DK) right around the $3K mark on either site.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas Todd Frazier has a 134 wRC+, .339 ISO and 59.3 FB% against LHP since 2017 despite .177 BABIP
The New York Mets are currently one of just four teams with an implied run line above four and a half and are second highest (4.68) among non-Coors teams tonight. While Caleb Smith can miss some bats, a 15.1 BB% and 28.6 GB% in 27 major league innings usually ensures that he’s not around very long and RHBs have a 38.5 Hard% against him so far. While Michael Conforto has held his own against LHP (87 wRC+, .225 ISO since last season), there’s some right-handed thump in this lineup, led by Todd Frazier (134 wRC+, .339 ISO, 40.7 Hard%, 59.3 FB%), Yoenis Cespedes (113 wRC+, .294 ISO, 45 Hard%, 58.3 FB%) and Wilmer Flores (114 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP). While Asdrubal Cabrera has a 162 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, that comes with just a .119 ISO and .447 BABIP. To contrast, Frazier’s production comes despite a .177 BABIP against southpaws. It should be noted that Cespedes may still be playing through an illness that struck him over the weekend and has just a 48 wRC+ with a 25 Hard% over the last week.
As reported by: CBS Sports Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, Caleb Smith Andrew Cashner (8.6 HR/FB in 2017) has allowed four HRs through two starts
Andrew Cashner has a 23.3 K% and has allowed four HRs through two starts. So basically, the opposite of everything he did last year (12.2 K%, 3.9% Barrels/BBE), in which an 8.6 HR/FB allowed him to achieve a 3.40 ERA two runs below his non-FIP estimators. His SwStr% is up (8.4), but still below average. He He has been traditionally much better against same-handed hitters (.298 wOBA, 28.3 Hard%, 57 GB% since last season), which doesn’t bode exceptionally well for a righty-centric Jays lineup, but they do have a reasonable 4.38 implied run line and some left-handed power in the top half of the lineup. LHBs have a .322 wOBA, .340 xwOBA and 37.6 GB% against Cashner since last season. Justin Smoak (127 wRC+, .272 ISO, 40.9 Hard%) is a viable, but slightly expensive bat here. Yangervis Solarte (114 wRC+, .202 ISO) is more affordable, while Curtis Granderson (117 wRC+, .249 ISO, 48.1 FB%) can still hit RHP and costs $3K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Andrew Cashner, Yangervis Solarte Low cost Cincinnati LHBs could be a contrarian compliment to higher priced talent elsewhere
While Aaron Nola remains a strong pitching option and the Reds have just a 3.04 implied run line, players probably are not looking to roster Cincinnati batters, but there may be a contrarian play here. Nola is off to a slow start and has been just average against LHBs since the start of last season (.314 wOBA, 30.7 Hard%, 47.1 GB%) and Philadelphia is a power friendly park in only a neutral run environment. The Reds stack three LHBs in the top half of the lineup who all exceed a 130 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs RHP since last season. Joey Votto (164 wRC+, 242 ISO) is the obvious name, but both Jesse Winker (161 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Scooter Gennett (134 wRC+, .247 ISO) are fairly cheap here as well. Both could help compliment higher priced bats and arms.
Other tagged players: Aaron Nola, Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto Nick Williams (115 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP) is a lower cost bat to support Rhys Hoskins' rising cost vs Homer Bailey
The Phillies have just the third highest implied run line (4.46) among all teams not playing at Coors tonight, but they may be facing the worst pitcher on the board. Batters from either side exceed a .360 wOBA and have a .380 or better xwOBA against Homer Bailey since last season and it’s been no better this season with a 6.4 SwStr% and SIERA approaching six through two starts. Rhys Hoskins (176 wRC+, .338 ISO vs RHP career) carries a massive price tag now, but can be paired with cheaper bats like Nick Williams (115 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP career) and Odubel Herrera (101 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP since 2017) surrounding him in the order to help offset cost. Jorge Alfaro (168 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP) bats lower in the order, but is a low cost Catcher with pop. There really are no poor choices against Homer Bailey.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Homer Bailey, Odubel Herrera, Jorge Alfaro Mike Foltynewicz has a 34.1 K%, but with just an 8.6 SwStr% and a large career split (LHBs .371 wOBA)
Mike Foltynewicz struck out eight of 22 Nationals last time out and has a 34.1 K% through two starts, but with just an 8.6 SwStr%, that may be a bit difficult to buy into. He has severe platoon splits for his career (LHBs .371 wOBA). The Nationals have a lot of RHBs, but they also have Bryce Harper (184 wRC+, .355 ISO vs RHP since 2017). Adam Eaton (159 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP as a National) should also be an offensive target here. However, both are very costly and with Washington owning just a 4.28 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board, there’s not much more here that should entice daily fantasy players.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Mike Foltynewicz Tyler Beede makes his major league debut, Eric Skoglund his first 2017 appearance
Two pitchers are making their 2017 debuts tonight, both rookies and for one, it’s his major league debut. Tyler Beede replaces Johnny Cueto. A prospect of some note, fangraphs ranks him the second best prospect int he system and puts a 50 grade on him, though they admit he lacks any “dominant aspect” and he projects as a mid-rotation starter. His control is questionable and he struck out just 17.4% at AAA last season. The park is his ally against the Diamondbacks. Erik Skoglund had a 16.7 K-BB% in his age 24 season at AAA last year (100 innings), when he was the number eight prospect in a weak Kansas City system per Fangraphs. He had a 2.2 K-BB% in 18 major league innings and hasn’t thrown a competitive in season pitch anywhere yet this year. At lower levels of the minors, he’s been a marginal strikeout guy with good control. That might make him slightly useful at a very low cost at home against the Mariners tonight, but he’s unlikely to be a lineup difference maker.
As reported by: Fangraphs Giants Top Prospects Other tagged players: Eric Skoglund Patrick Corbin has struck out 20 of 48 batters faced with a 17.8 SwStr% through two starts
Similar to Monday, Tuesday’s pitching is not just strong at the top, but has some high upside arms at mid-range prices too. The most expensive of those and maybe the best is Patrick Corbin ($9-9.5K). His breakout started over his last 20 starts of 2017 (23.7 K%, 51.3 GB%, < 30 Hard%). He’s now struck out 20 of 48 batters faced this season (17.8 SwStr%) and gets a major park upgrade in San Francisco tonight. Theoretically, the Giants are supposed to be much better against LHP this year, but with a league leading 184 PAs so far, they’ve generated a 15.7 K-BB% and 75 wRC+ against them. Aaron Nola hasn’t started very srong and has been held below 90 pitches in each of his starts, but has a league average SwStr rate (9.7%), a ground ball rate above 50% and a 0.0 Hard-Soft%. The matchup should be winnable against a banged up Cincinnati offense and the slow start has kept his cost down below $9K. Sean Manaea has efficiently used 189 pitches to throw 15.2 innings through two starts. While his strikeout rate remains league average, his SwStr rate is up even further (12.7%) and he’s walked just one guy! He continues to have contact issues against RHBs (37.5 Hard%, 43.8 GB% through two starts) and the matchup is not great against the Dodgers, but they are still without Justin Turner and he costs right around $8K on either site. Aaron Sanchez (11.2%) and Tyler Skaggs (13.4%) have both greatly increased their SwStr% through two starts and are facing strikeout prone, but also powerful offenses in dangerous parks. Sanchez, at least, is expected to have the platoon advantage for the most part against a predominantly right-handed Baltimore lineup. He has a career 60.3 GB% against righties. The Orioles have a 29.2 K% and 2.9 Hard-Soft% against RHP so far.
Other tagged players: Aaron Northcraft, Sean Mannion, Tyler Skaggs, Aaron Sanchez Another strong pitching board may be led by Jacob deGrom in Miami
Looking at another strong pitching board, only Chris Sale and Luis Severino reach $10K on both sites, while Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Martinez join them above that mark on DraftKings. In fact, deGrom is the most expensive pitcher on the board at $12.4K there. His $2.8K price differential is also the largest on the board. Despite not having his best stuff to date, he’s still posted 12 strikeouts over 11.2 innings of two run ball. Warmer weather in Miami should help him grip his pitches better (something he complained about after his first start) and may make him the top value on the board at $9.6K on FanDuel (only the fourth highest priced arm). Sale and Severino face off in a dangerous matchup with two strong offenses, the Yankees particularly scary against southpaws, but Giancarlo Stanton has been striking out a ton and the bombers were actually better vs RHP last season. Sale was removed after five strong innings against the Marlins last time out and has yet to exceed 93 pitches. He should be expected to show up here, but costs $11K on FanDuel. Severino should have the platoon advantage in most of his matchups tonight. He too, has yet to exceed 95 pitches, but has retained a 29.8 K% and has flat out dominated contact through two starts (72.4 GB% and -6.9 Hard-Soft% ). The Red Sox have just a 15.4 K% vs RHP thus far. Stephen Strasburg has allowed three HRs in two starts, but his 13.6 SwStr% and non-FIP estimators in the low threes are both in line with last season. He should be fine, but the Braves are no longer push-overs. Carlos Martinez is probably the most expensive boom or bust arm on the slate. He dominated this Milwaukee lineup in his last start in a more difficult park after blowing up on Opening Day. The culprit in that first start, the same as it normally is with him, poor control against LHBs. The good news is the Brewers are down one of those in Christian Yelich and have a 27.2 K% against RHP so far. St Louis is a great pitcher’s park in cold weather.
Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Chris Sale, Carlos Martinez, Stephen Strasburg, Giancarlo Stanton