DFS Alerts
Start of Wednesday's TB-NYY game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees on Wednesday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, but as of now, the teams do plan on starting the game at some point. The late start is good news for the prospects of Luis Severino not being pulled from his start due to a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, sustained winds are blowing out at 25mph, with gusts over 40mph, a sizable boost to hitters’ projected fantasy values from both teams.
As reported by: Erik Boland via Twitter
Dallas Keuchel (.293 wOBA, 65.6 GB% vs RHBs last year) will face an entirely right-handed Baltimore lineup
Dallas Keuchel will face a lineup comprised completely of right-handed batters and that makes complete sense considering left-handed batters couldn’t touch him last year (.192 wOBA, 72.9 GB%). Opposite handed batters weren’t good against him (.293 wOBA, 65.6 GB%), but stood more of a chance. Orioles are still going to be difficult to roster. Only offenses facing Severino, Syndergaard and Kluber have lower implied run lines this afternoon than Baltimore’s 3.6 in possibly the most negative run environment in baseball. Keuchel wasn’t great in his first start in Texas, but six innings with three runs a walk and four strikeouts is serviceable in that park. He struggled in the second half last season when his ERA rose over two runs and his K-BB% was cut in half, after which it had been revealed he was pitching with a foot injury, but was still able to keep the ball on the ground two-thirds of the time. He may be a difficult pay up on DraftKings, where Corey Kluber is just $600 more, but Alex Wood is the only pitcher in his price zone on FanDuel ($8.8K) if players are looking for more room for bats. Keuchel’s 2017 84.5 mph aEV was lowest on the board for the entire day today. The reason to consider Baltimore bats is because they are severely priced down on either site (only Manny Machado and Adam Jones are above $3.3K on either site). Jonathan Schoop (150 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP since 2017) would make the most sense,
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Adam Jones
Dylan Bundy had a strong first start, but is in a dangerous spot in Houston (4.9 implied runs)
Dylan Bundy is not usually the ideal pitcher to pick on, but the Astros have the highest run line (4.9) on the afternoon slate among teams without major weather concerns (only the Yankees are higher – 5.0). The fact that Houston is resting several key regulars, including Correa, Gattis and McCann might be a reason to look at Bundy as a contrarian play. Really, every pitcher is worth some consideration on this slate. Bundy started his season off with a gem (7 IP – 5 H – 0 R – 1 BB – 7 K) in Baltimore, throwing 27% sliders (consistent with his second half usage last year) and though he faces the baddest offense in the land (Houston 121 wRC+ at home, 122 vs RHP), he may be pitching in the most negative run environment in baseball this afternoon. The park still does play a bit power friendly however, making Bundy’s 32.8 GB% the concern (or the appeal depending on your perspective). His 88.1 mph aEV from 2017 is highest on the afternoon. Left-handed batters had more success against him that right-handed batters both with a wOBA (.328) and xwOBA (.336) nearly 40 points higher than same-handed batters. This included a 39.9 Hard%. Although the Astros employ just three LHBs in today’s lineup and one is in the last spot, both Josh Reddick (132 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Marwin Gonzalez (152 wRC+, .231 ISO) sit right in the middle (fourth and fifth). Reddick broke out in a big way on Tuesday night with two HRs, including a grand slam off a left-handed reliever.
Other tagged players: Marwin Gonzalez, Dylan Bundy Corey Kluber picked up right where he left off in 2017, other early studs with major weather concerns
The main early slate is a damn scary one. With the early Washington/Atlanta game unavailable in most daily fantasy offerings, players are left with a five game board after the Kansas City/Detroit PPD. Pitchers available still include Luis Severino, Noah Syndergaard and Corey Kluber, three of the top seven or so arms in the game, but Kevin’s early forecast marks both games in New York (Severino & Syndergaard) as ORANGE. He’s concerned about long in-game delays that could knock out the starters along with incredibly strong winds (gusts up to 40 mph in both spots) blowing out. Corey Kluber is the easy choice here. He picked up right where he left off last season, striking out eight of 29 batters and finishing eight innings on Opening Day in Seattle. Continuing the west coast trip, he faced a predominantly right-handed Angels’ lineup. He held RHBs to both a wOBA and xwOBA below .250 last season with a 33.2 K-BB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft%. There are no bad pitchers on the mound this afternoon, but none without weather concerns nearly as automatic as Corey Kluber.
Other tagged players: Noah Syndergaard, Luis Severino Attack Here With Lefties
Jhoulys Chacin had some of the most extreme splits in the league last season. A shutdown pitcher to righties, he had just a 16.1% K rate with 12.1% BB to lefties resulting in a 5.46 FIP. Dexter Fowler is way too cheap for a leadoff hitter in this lineup, with his .372 OBP and .243 ISO against right-handed pitching. Pair him with Matt Carpenter for an affordable, high upside mini stack.
A Solid One-Off Value Play
Solarte appears to be settling into the middle of the order for the Blue Jays, which is a bit of a surprise, but he still has a nice value price tag for us in DFS. The Blue Jays lineup is very potent, so if he is going to continue to hit cleanup, we have to take notice. He had a pair of hits last night, and the Jays should be able to score some runs again this evening. While I will likely avoid the full stack at high ownership in GPPs, I don’t mind taking a one-off option here. I will likely do that with a value piece like Solarte. While Carson Fulmer has a ton of potential as a pitcher, he’s not there yet, and the Jays should score some runs in this game.
Too Cheap In The Middle
The A’s left-handed bats are in a prime spot against Doug Fister tonight. Fister has been unable to limit hard contact against left-handed batters, allowing 40% hard hits last season while losing his ground ball ability. There may be bigger upside with the likes of Matt Olson, but Jed Lowrie is an underrated hitter. He is the best contact lefty on this team, with just 1 14.6% K rate, and still hits the ball hard at 36%, and gets a prime lineup spot most nights.
Plucking out the Left-Handed Bats
While it makes sense to target the right-handed bats for Texas in this game, we have the opposite for the Oakland side. Both pitchers in this game have extreme splits, so we can take advantage of that, especially if you are looking to double stack this game. Doug Fister allowed a 40% hard contact rate and a woeful .365 wOBA to LHBs a year ago, and his ground ball rate dipped by 6% against lefties. Oakland has a lot of left-handed hitters with some pop, so I will be prioritizing them as a stack or mini-stack this evening.
Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie High Upside Matchup
Carson Fulmer should develop into a solid starter at some point, but he’s not there yet. We don’t have enough sample size to make much of the data, but when combining the fly balls we’ve seen from Fulmer with a weak White Sox bullpen, Smoak looks like a high upside play tonight. He posted a huge 40% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching in 2017, good for a .266 ISO and 31 HR in 436 AB. The Blue Jays looked primed to pick up where they left off last night.
Pluck Out the Right-Handed Bats
The one problem that Sean Manaea has is getting right-handed batters out. He’s very good against lefties, but it’s still a problem because teams will generally stack up the RHBs against him. Last season, Manaea allowed a .347 wOBA and alarming 37% hard contact rate against RHBs. In comparison, lefties had just a 21% hard contact rate against him. I will avoid the likes of Choo and Gallo tonight, but the Texas righties are very stackable in GPP formats.
Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Robinson Chirinos The Top Point Per Dollar Pitcher?
Jon Gray has a world of talent, and he has shown his electric stuff quite often at the big league level. He gets hamstrung at times because he pitches half his games at Coors Field, but that’s not a concern tonight. Gray draws a matchup against a weak San Diego offense in a very favorable pitchers’ park, so this could be the best spot to take him all year long. If this were a full slate, his ownership would be depressed because of his poor outing on Opening Day. He will be more popular than that tonight, but the matchup and reasonable price are simply too good to ignore.
High Upside Pitching Choice
Tonight’s main slate is somewhat devoid of pitching options, so there is plenty to be said for taking the security of the top overall arm. Despite his struggles on Opening Day, Carlos Martinez is the most likely pitcher to put up the highest score of the night provided that he can handle Milwaukee’s left-handed hitters. There are a decent amount of strikeouts in this lineup, and it’s especially hard to avoid Martinez on DraftKings where you need to have two pitchers. I expect a much better outing tonight with the potential for eight or more strikeouts.
Wednesday's KC-DET game postponed due to inclement weather
The matchup between the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers on Wednesday afternoon has been postponed due to inclement weather. The two teams have already announced that today’s game will be rescheduled for April 20th as part of a day-night doubleheader, though the official game times have yet to be confirmed.
As reported by: Rustin Dodd via Twitter The Easy Choice Tonight
Even after a rough opening start, I see no reason that Gray shouldn’t be the highest priced pitcher on tonight’s slate. There is virtually no downside with his skill set in this matchup. He has high strikeout ability with good control, all while getting above average ground balls and soft contact. He had a 26.1% strikeout rate with 6.3% walks away from Coors Field last season, and gets a plus matchup against a low power Padres lineup.
Value Option In A Great Team Spot
The Blue Jays are the team to target on the main slate tonight, and Granderson continues to hit in the heart of the order. Carson Fulmer pitched in a limited amount last season, and finished the season with a 3.86 ERA. That’s very misleading, he had a 5.59 SIERA with a .190 BABIP and got very lucky. Fulmer is talented and has a really good cutter, but he’s still young and his command isn’t ready for the big league level. Granderson hits cutters and 92-94 mph fast balls really well, which is why he’s a great value play against Fulmer.
