DFS Alerts
Cheap Dodger, Mariner bats can pave a path to Coors bats with quality pitching
Players who are looking to pay up for Coors bats and afford one of the better pitchers on the board have to be thrilled that the Dodgers are facing a poor left-handed pitcher. Travis Wood has allowed 14 HRs in 10 starts for the Padres, having really only pitched once in an extremely power friendly environment (Cincinnati). RHBs have a .385 wOBA with 13 of those HRs (32.4 Hard%). Wood’s opposition to the Dodgers generally means that players can lock in Austin Barnes (130 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP) and Kike Hernandez (143 wRC+, .317 ISO vs LHP) into their lineups at Catcher and Shortstop. While Barnes is up to $3.6K on DraftKings, Hernandez still costs less than $3K and both players are within $300 of the minimum on FanDuel. If looking for additional savings, Logan Forsythe (134 wRC+, .138 ISO vs LHP) can be had for $3K or less on either site as well. DraftKings players can also find incredible value in many Seattle bats in Oakland. While they are facing Daniel Gossett (5.38 ERA/4.65 SIERA/5.96 DRA), Mariner bats are priced like they’re facing Corey Kluber. Mitch Haniger (129 wRC+, 192 ISO vs RHP) is the most expensive Mariner on DK at just $3.4K.
Other tagged players: Austin Barnes, Logan Forsythe, Mitch Haniger, Daniel Gossett, Travis Wood
Three of the top four projected bats reside at Coors tonight
Charlie Blackmon is the top projected hitter (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on either site by a full point or more tonight. He’s at home against Odrisamer Despaigne, who hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact this season, but did allow two of his three HRs this year in his last start and has by far, the lowest strikeout rate on the board tonight (10.9%). He’s joined by teammate Nolan Arenado in the top three with Mike Trout sandwiched in between, in Chicago against James Shields. Giancarlo Stanton, also at Coors, facing Tyler Chatwood, is the fourth highest projected batter on either site, with teammates Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour and Christian Yelich all not too far behind. The Houston Astros have three of the top nine projected batters on either site (Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa) in Texas against Andrew Cashner tonight. Cashner has allowed seven of his 15 HRs over his last eight starts, including only his second multi-HR game of the season, not at home, but in Seattle last time out. His exceptional contact management has taken a hit with a hard hit rate above 35% in three of his last four starts. Springer costs just $3.1K on FanDuel, doubling as a top projected value there (4.23 Pt/$/K). On DraftKings, a pair of Mariners (Robinson Cano 3 Pt/$/K and Nelson Cruz 2.93 Pt/$/K) rate as top values.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Mike Trout, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, George Springer, Justin Bour, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna Jon Lester did not strike out any of the 23 Rays he faced in his last start
Jon Lester did not make it out of the fifth innings in Tampa Bay last time out, allowing seven runs and perhaps more surprisingly, did not strike out a single one of the 23 batters he faced against an offense that strikes out a quarter of the time they step to the plate. Buster Olney raised the alarm on Twitter about his velocity, but updated numbers (Fangraphs) have him less than half a mile per hour off his season rate and he did have an 11.6 SwStr% in that start. His last three starts feature 11 walks to 10 strikeouts, but with a 52 GB% and 7.7 Hard-Soft%. While confidence shouldn’t be high in Lester at this point, there are some signs that things aren’t completely bleak. What does that mean for tonight’s matchup with the Cardinals? Multiple lineup players should probably look into some GPP exposure to Cardinal bats, but more for the power they’ve represented against LHP than due to Lester’s recent struggles. Jose Martinez has destroyed southpaws (246 wRC+, .448 ISO), but did not play yesterday due to a thumb issue. Tommy Pham (152 wRC+, .269 ISO), Paul DeJong (150 wRC+, .320 ISO) and Jedd Gyorko (134 wRC+, .245 ISO) have all punished LHP as well, though the most surprising lefty-masher might be Yadier Molina (121 wRC+, .283 ISO). RHBs do now have a .345 wOBA against Lester this season, but with just a 28 Hard%.
Other tagged players: Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Jedd Gyorko Aaron Nola and Luke Weaver have been pitching well, both cost less than $10K tonight
Although neither is the most expensive or top projected pitcher on either site, a reasonable argument can be made that Aaron Nola and Luke Weaver are the top arms on the board tonight. Nola has struck out 27 of his last 79 batters (14.5 SwStr%), as he looks to end the season strong. Fewer fastballs and a few more curveballs and changeups has actually resulted in a small velocity bump, back to earlier season levels after a decline in August. He also gets a shot a Washington team that seems more concerned with health as they ride out the last week of the season, frequently resting starters over the last month. Weaver can’t entirely support his 31.4 K% with a 10.4 SwStr% and will eventually see his strikeout rate fall below 30%, but he still has an above average SwStr%, which combined with his contact management skills (53.9 GB%, 23.1 Hard%) should make him an All-Star caliber arm going forward. He too faces a playoff bound team in the Cubs, who haven’t locked up anything yet, but it’s a foregone conclusion with a 5.5 game lead on the Brewers. St Louis is generally a power suppressing park, though temperatures are expected to be in the 80’s tonight. The Cubs have merely a league average 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year and an 8.7 HR/FB over the last week. Neither is above $10K nor the highest priced pitcher on either site tonight. Nola is somehow only $8K on DraftKings! Zack Godley was one of a number of good pitchers recently roughed up by the Padres in San Diego. He allowed five runs in five innings, but still struck out six of 26. Since the start of August, his ground ball rate is down to 51.9% with a 38.1 Hard%, but he still has a 17.5 K-BB% over that span. The Giants have a significantly favorable park transition tonight, but make very little hard contact (6.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) and have very little power in the lineup (9.4 HR/FB vs RHP). Godley is one of two $10K pitchers on DraftKings though.
Other tagged players: Luke Weaver, Zack Godley Yu Darvish has pitched well last two starts, costs $12.3K on DraftKings against the Padres
Yu Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on either site, reaching $12.3K on DraftKings. He’s the top projected pitcher (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on either site by a wide margin as well. Darvish followed up seven shutout innings in San Francisco with 5.1 more (seven strikeouts) in Philadelphia and while there can be some skepticism with the level of competition represented in those starts, it’s certainly better that he pitches well against them than not and it’s not like the Padres are a big step up tonight. The 97 pitches in his last start were his most since the second start after being traded. One concern is that the Dodgers could be in conservation mode at this point. They have no reason to suddenly push him past 100 pitches and it’s hard to accept anything less at that cost. Another concern is that while the Padres were supposed to be a laughing stock, they’ve been thumping quality pitchers and ruining daily fantasy lineups over the last week. While they do have a 113 wRC+ over the last week, they also still have a 25 K% and just a 3.6 Hard-Soft%. The Padres still probably shouldn’t be the reason someone doesn’t like Darvish tonight.
HR prone Ricky Nolasco and James Shields face off in Chicago tonight
James Shields and Ricky Nolasco face each other in a matchup of HR machines in Chicago tonight. Nolasco has allowed 34, while Shields has allowed 26 in just 20 starts. Nolasco hasn’t actually allowed a HR in two starts. His 34 HRs are now only sixth most in the majors, after having the lead for a bit of time. Twenty-two of his HRs have been allowed on the road, 13 of them to RHBs, who have a .424 wOBA against him when he pitches away from home this year. This makes a great spot for Jose Abreu (126 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP), who has just a 90 wRC+ over the last week, but with a 52.9 Hard%. Avisail Garcia (120 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP) has a 104 wRC+ with a 64.3 Hard% over the last seven days. On the other side, James Shields has a 22.6 K% over his last 10 starts. He’s still allowed 14 HRs over that span, though with just a league average 31.4 Hard%. The Angels will lineup mostly right-handed and actually have the highest implied run line outside of Coors tonight (5.52 runs), but over this 10 game span, Shields has a 24.4 K% and 28.1 Hard% against RHP. Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .345 ISO vs RHP) and Justin Upton (123 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP) are certainly top plays tonight, as Kole Calhoun (102 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP) may be too with a 126 wRC+ and 75 Hard% (nine of 12 batted balls) over the last week. The rest of the lineup is not populated with a lot of bats who have hit RHP well this year.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields The Rockies have a 6.39 implied run line at home against Odrisamer Despaigne
Colorado has the highest implied run line (6.39) on the entire slate and by a large margin, as is often the case at home, even when, like tonight, the opposing team often has a better offense. Six more teams on a nine game board are between 5.02 and 5.52 runs. The Rockies are facing the very contact prone Odrisamer Despaigne (10.9 K%), who’s only been in the rotation for about a month. While he’s generally done a strong job of limiting hard contact, two of his three HRs this season came in his last start with a 31.8 Hard-Soft%. Charlie Blackmon (147 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP) is probably tonight’s top batter. LHBs have a .360 wOBA and just a 33 GB% against Despaigne, but with just a 26.1 Hard%. RHBs have actually hit him harder 33.3%, but with just a .239 wOBA in a small sample (88 PAs). Regardless, the more contact they make, the more likely the Rockies are to do some damage at Coors despite their 83 wRC+ vs RHP this year and this is a pitcher they should make plenty of contact against at least. The Marlins have just the fifth highest implied run line (5.11) against ground ball specialist Tyler Chatwood, who has a ground ball rate above 57% and hard hit rate below 30% to batters from either side. His issue has generally been poor control. RHBs have a 59.1 GB% and 32 Hard% with nine HRs against him at Coors this year. Giancarlo Stanton (147 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP), Marcell Ozuna (148 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP) and Justin Bour (143 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP) are have a wRC+ above 200 and a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week and all are fairly expensive.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Odrisamer Despaigne, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour, Marcell Ozuna, Tyler Chatwood Dylan Bundy scratched Sunday; Chris Tillman will now start in his place
Bundy has officially been scratched from his start in today’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays due to an unspecified reason. In his place, Chris Tillman will receive the starting nod for the Baltimore Orioles this afternoon. Considering that Tillman is a right-handed pitcher with a similar overall skillset to Bundy, the Rays hitters shouldn’t be expected to see an uptick in production and will not see a substantial boost to their projected values on Sunday’s main slate.
As reported by: Dan Connolly via Twitter Other tagged players: Chris Tillman
No rain concerns but some notable heat and wind in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
For the second day in a row, Kevin Roth is giving us the all clear in rain department of today’s weather forecast, as zero games check in with any threat of rain this fine Sunday afternoon. There are still some cities across Major League Baseball with noteworthy heat and wind, so be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jacob deGrom has recorded a -6.9% Hard-Soft% in his last two starts
deGrom will take the mound this afternoon at home against the Washington Nationals aiming to build off of a solid two-game stretch against the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves, allowing two earned runs or less and pitching at least six innings in each aforementioned outing while punching out seven or more batters as well. For the most part, deGrom has looked like his old self throughout this entire season, but more specifically in the strikeout department. In his first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 followed by a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate two years ago, meaning that he has seemingly reverted back to the consistent strikeout pitcher this season that he had been in the early stages of his career. These statistics just further suggest that last year’s dip in strikeouts was likely the anomaly of the sample set considering deGrom’s 28.4% strikeout rate and 13.2% swinging strike rate through 30 starts would both set new career-highs and are at least somewhat within the range of his 2015 numbers. Additionally, he’ll receive the benefit of drawing an above-average matchup against a depleted Nationals squad that does rank 10th in wRC+ (101), 6th in wOBA (.331), and 8th in ISO (.187) versus right-handed pitching but is far from rolling out their best starting nine today due to injuries The Nationals do strike out at a 20.8% clip as well, meaning that this matchup is not necessarily a huge downgrade from a strikeout perspective for deGrom either, even though Washington does own a below-average strikeout rate. Despite the slight cap to his strikeout upside, deGrom has an elite enough pitching profile to combat the Nationals’ big-time bats that he should be able to neutralize some, if not, all of their power and on-base ability and work his way through to a great outing. On top of that, deGrom arguably still possesses one of the highest upsides among starting pitching options on Sunday’s main slate, even at his high price point. This definitely does look to be one of those situations where the reward still outweighs the risk in cash games and tournaments and deGrom remains one of the pitchers with the highest likelihood to post a tournament winning score across the industry this afternoon.
As reported by: FanGraphs Perfectly clear weather forecast for Saturday night's MLB main slate
It’s not only a quiet night on the weather front across Major League Baseball but nearly a silent one, as exactly zero games have any chance of rain this fine Saturday evening. There is still some noteworthy heat and humidity, so be sure to check out Kevin Roth’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Will Middlebrooks scratched Saturday; Drew Robinson replaces and will bat ninth
Middlebrooks has officially been scratched from the Texas Rangers lineup for tonight’s game against the Oakland Athletics as a response to Oakland’s starting pitching change to Raul Alcantara from the southpaw, Sean Manaea. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Drew Robinson, who will take over the third base duties and bat ninth. Since Robinson is slotting directly into Middlebrooks’ former spot in the batting order, the remainder of the Athletics previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: John Blake via Twitter Other tagged players: Drew Robinson Sean Manaea scratched Saturday, Raul Alcantara will now start in his place
Manaea has officially been scratched from his start in tonight’s game against the Texas Rangers due to a minor back issue. In his place, Raul Alcantara will receive the starting nod for the Oakland Athletics this evening. Considering that Alcantara is a right-handed pitcher and a noteworthy downgrade from Manaea in terms of pitching ability, the Rangers now suddenly become a much more intriguing offense to target and the Texas lefties should see a substantial boost to their projected values on Saturday night’s slate.
As reported by: Susan Slussler via Twitter Other tagged players: Raul Alcantara Jeremy Hellickson has surrendered a whopping 2.36 HR/9 in nine starts as an Oriole
Hellickson may be one of the more familiar names on the mound tonight but he could quite possibly be the worst starting pitcher on this entire nine-game main slate from a skills perspective. In his nine starts since being traded to the Baltimore Orioles, he has experienced relatively mixed results, allowing six or more earned runs on four occasions while limiting the damage to three earned runs or less in his other five outings. It doesn’t help Hellickson’s cause that he owns similar minuscule strikeout splits to batters from each side of the plate, with a 13.4% strikeout rate to lefties and 13.9% strikeout rate to righties, and his skills take an even steeper downturn in the fly ball (51.1%) and hard contact departments (33.7% HH%) against left-handed batters. Because of this, we almost always want to load up on the lefties facing Hellickson, and this Tampa Bay Rays offense certainly obliges in that aspect. Logan Morrison (132 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .291 ISO vs RHP) and Kevin Kiermaier (127 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .211 ISO vs RHP) stand out as the premier Tampa Bay lefties to target in this lineup, while Lucas Duda and Corey Dickerson (.222 ISO vs RHP) fall in line a tier below but remain perfectly viable in tournaments as one-offs or part of a Rays stack. Other than the left-handed bats, and though less appealing overall, Steven Souza (119 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .254 ISO vs RHP) amd Evan Longoria (.170 ISO vs RHP) are the two righties that possess enough power and plate skills against right-handed pitching that they should be able to capitalize on a matchup with a low-strikeout, flyball pitcher. That said, they probably still remain fringe stacking candidates on this Tampa Bay offense considering each sacrifice the platoon advantage and Hellickson has shown the ability to somewhat control batted ball events versus right-handed hitters this season and throughout his career.
As reported by: FanGraphs Mookie Betts scratched Saturday; Chris Young replaces and will bat seventh
Betts has officially been scratched from the Boston Red Sox lineup for today’s game against the Cincinnati Reds due to a bruised left foot. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Chris Young, who will take over the right field duties and bat seventh. This lineup change will bump Brock Holt all the way up to the two-hole from his original position of seventh, while Andrew Benintendi will slide down to third in the batting order as well. However, the remainder of the Red Sox previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.