DFS Alerts
No particular weather concerns on Friday night.
There’s may be a passing shower in a few spots (Baltimore Cleveland, Cincinnati New York NL, Tampa Bay @ Boston), but concerns about anything other than a short delay anywhere are very low. Read Kevin’s full update on the Weather page and catch him in Premium Chat for further updates leading up to first pitch.
Trevor Williams and Jose Urena both have well below average K%, but generate a lot of weak contact
There are nine pitchers on tonight’s slate with an average exit velocity below 86 mph this year. Among those, Jimmy Nelson (85.2 mph) has allowed the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball (3.9%). Trevor Williams has a well below average strikeout rate (17.3%) and both an ERA (4.14) and SIERA (4.70) above four, but estimators don’t take into account the contact authority and he seems to be one of the best in the league at generating weak contact. His 84.9 mph aEV and 28.8% 95+ mph EV both lead the slate. Jharel Cotton (85.7 mph, 29.5%) is the only other pitcher on the board with a 95+ mph EV below 30%, though he’s still allowed 23 HRs over his last 16 starts. Along the same lines, Ervin Santana has an 85.4 mph aEV and 30.7% 95+ mph EV, but has allowed 26 HRs over his last 22 starts. Max Scherzer (85.8 mph), Luke Weaver (85.8 mph) and Yu Darvish (85.6 mph) are all among the top average exit velocities tonight. Like Williams, Jose Urena is another pitcher with a low strikeout rate (16.1%) with a low aEV (85.4 mph) and 95+ mph EV (30.1%).
Other tagged players: Jose Urena, Max Scherzer, Luke Weaver, Yu Darvish, Jimmy Nelson, Jharel Cotton, Ervin Santana Josh Donaldson replaced by Richard Urena in Toronto lineup
The Blue Jays have posted a new lineup card without Josh Donaldson and with Richard Urena batting ninth. No reason has yet been given for the change. Bautista jumps two spots to second, Smoak remains third. Everyone else from the original lineup moves up a spot.
As reported by: Shi Davidi Other tagged players: Richard Urena Amir Garrett the highest aEV (90.1 mph) and 95+ mph EV (41.8%) on the slate
Amir Garrett (90.1 mph), Ian Kennedy (89.9 mph), and Ricky Nolasco (89.9 mph) have the highest average exit velocities on the board tonight. Kennedy (11.4%) and Jake Thompson (11%) have the only double digit Barrels/BBE rates. Garrett (41.8%), Nolasco (40.9%) and Matt Moore (40.2%) have allowed the highest rates of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. Garrett allowed 18 HRs over his last nine starts before being banished to the minors, where he had basically league average peripherals and a 10.1 HR/FB. Two Mets batters tonight have both an above average wRC+ and ISO vs LHP this year. They are Jose Reyes (112 wRC+, .189 ISO) and Travis D’arnaud (150 wRC+, .239 ISO). The latter is a great option at Catcher on FanDuel for just $2.6K. Ian Kennedy multiple HRs in four of last five and has just one strikeout in three of his last four starts. Kansas City is not a power friendly park, but Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Brian Dozier all exceed a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Batters from either side have a 330+ wOBA and 35+ Hard% against Kennedy. Ricky Nolasco’s 33 HRs are the third most in the majors. His hard hit rate has been at least 33.3% in six of his last eight starts. Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano each have multiple HRs against him. Jake Thompson is coming off the best start of his career, 6 IP – 1 ER – 7 K in Miami. He allowed five HRs with 5 BBs and 6 Ks in his two previous, one vs Miami. Batters from either side have a .350+ wOBA and 35+ Hard% against him this year. Daniel Murphy (135 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) is the top play from the Nationals, though a top half of the lineup stack could be potent. Matt Moore has allowed a .444 wOBA (34.1 Hard%) to LHBs. The White Sox have just one (Nick Delmonico) in the lineup. RHBs have a 35% hard hit rate against Moore too though. Jose Abreu has smashed LHP this year (187 wRC+, .282 ISO).
Other tagged players: Jose Reyes, Amir Garrett, Ian Kennedy, Ricky Nolasco, Jake Thompson, Matt Moore, Daniel Murphy, Jose Abreu, Nelson Cruz Cleveland, Arizona, and Houston all have multiple players among top projected hitters tonight
There is less than a point of separation among the top 12 overall projected batters in the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Names like Aaron Jude, Mike Trout, Francsico Lindor and Paul Goldschmidt appear in the top five on either site. Cleveland is the only team to have three batters among the elite (top 12) on either site, as Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez are expected to join Lindor on an assault against Wade Miley. J.D. Martinez joins Goldschmidt to give the Diamondbacks a pair of leading projections against Jordan Lyles. Houston is the only other offense to place multiple batters in the top 12 with both Jose Altuve and George Springer appearing against Jharel Cotton, who has surrendered 23 HRs over his last 16 starts, despite the second lowest rate of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity on the board for the season (29.5%). When looking for top projected values, another Diamondback joins the party with Jake Lamb (3.94 Pt/$/K) on FanDuel. Among those projected for at least eight DraftKings points, Matt Carpenter (2.48 Pt/$/K) may be a great value if he’s back in the lineup tonight. Jose Abreu (2.36 Pt/$/K) and Denard Span (2.33 Pt/$/K) are additional options in Chicago tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, JD Martinez, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Jake Lamb Jose Ramirez remains the hottest hitter in the majors over the last week (330 wRC+, five HRs)
Jose Ramirez (330 wRC+, 50 Hard%, five HRs) remains the hottest hitter in the majors via wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.). He’s also tied for the league lead in HRs over that span and faced Wade Miley tonight. Carlos Gonzalez (298 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, one HR) has the second highest wRC+ over the last seven days among batters projected to be in tonight’s lineup, but the overall line is not that impressive and he leaves the friendly confines of Coors for more difficult conditions at Dodger Stadium this weekend. Jose Martinez (293 wRC+, 52.6 Hard%, three HRs) has begun to force his way into the lineup against RHPs recently. RHBs have just a .301 wOBA (33.7 Hard%) against Trevor Williams. Welington Castillo (196 wRC+, 69.2 Hard%, three HRs) and J.D. Martinez (261 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, five HRs) are the only two batters to have made hard contact on at least two-thirds of batted balls. The latter is tied with Ramirez for the HR lead too and is in a great spot at home against Jordan Lyles. Castillo has it a bit harder in Cleveland against Mike Clevinger.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Martinez, Welington Castillo, JD Martinez Red hot Diamondbacks top Friday's slate with a 5.92 implied run line.
The red hot Arizona Diamondbacks have the top run projection on a full slate with 5.92 runs at home against Jordan Lyles, nearly a half run above the next highest team, the Yankees at 5.54 in Texas. Toronto has an implied run line of 5.45 against Buck Farmer and then five more teams are between 4.9 and 5.11 runs. Lyles walked four of 23 batters in his first start of the season last week. He’s allowed 11 HRs in 51 innings almost entirely out of the bullpen for the Rockies before landing with the Padres last month. RHBs have a .355 wOBA against him, but LHBs have a .424 wOBA and 42.5 Hard%. Heavy Diamondback exposure is heavily recommended in cash games and may even be affordable if going with one of the lesser established, recent breakout arms tonight. Normally, RHBs against Martin Perez in Texas would be a great proposition. They have 17 of his 18 HRs allowed this year and 10 of his 11 allowed at home with a 2.3 K-BB%, 40.9 GB% and 36.1 Hard% this year. However, Perez has a 50.4 GB% and 22.7 Hard% overall this past month, in which RHBs have just a 23.7 Hard% with a 52.7 GB%. Despite leaning predominantly RH this season, the Yankees have just a league average 96 wRC+ vs LHP. Some of the more powerful bats certainly remain in play in a this great hitting environment, but perhaps they’d serve players better as one-offs rather than full stacks. Buck Farmer put up a strong 16.0 K-BB% at AAA this season and has a 17.4 K-BB% through six major league starts. However, most of that production came from his first two starts (13 IP – 0 ER – 3 BB – 16 K – 46 BF). His line since: 13.1 IP – 21 ER – 6 HR – 5 BB – 12 K – 69 BF. He has a 31.3 GB% and 34.7 Hard% over these last four starts with batters from either side of the plate tattooing him.
Other tagged players: Jordan Lyles, Martin Perez, Buck Farmer Luke Weaver has a 31 K% and 50.2 GB% on the season with an 85.8 mph aEV.
With several of tonight’s top pitchers potentially having injury and/or performance issues, players may be concerned with the stat of pitching on this slate. It may be if only looking at long established All-Star types, but there are also just as many pitchers who may be breaking out right before our eyes available. Jimmy Nelson turned his season around in May and therefor has been doing it for longer than the rest of this group. His 20.7 K-BB% is 12th among all qualified starters, while his 27.2 K% is third on tonight’s board (behind Scherzer and Archer) among qualified arms. His 85.2 mph aEV is third best on the entire board (3.9% Barrels/BBE is second) with a 50.2 GB% for the season. Luke Weaver has eight or more strikeouts in all four starts since the start of August with a 51.2 GB% and 85.8 mph aEV, 26.1 Hard% combination on the year. His 11 SwStr% may not support the second best strikeout rate on the board (31%), but it certainly supports a strong one. HRs have occasionally been an issue for him, but he hosts a low powered Pittsburgh team tonight. Patrick Corbin is in a great spot against the Padres (25 K% road and vs LHP), even if it is at home. In his last 14 starts, he has a 51.7 GB% with a 4.1 Hard-Soft%. RHBs have a .339 wOBA with 17 of his 23 HRs allowed this year, but just a .300 wOBA with five HRs over this span (12 HRs in first 14 starts). German Marquez has struck out 19 of his last 50 batters (both at home vs Arizona & Detroit). He’s done this before with nine or more in three straight to end July. He presents the most reason for caution here, as he’s also allowed nine HRs last five with no real platoon split. His 88.5 mph aEV for the season is just outside the bottom five. The Dodgers have been ice cold though. They have a 19.0 K-BB% and 7.5 HR/FB over the last seven days and Marquez has the lowest price tag of the four.
Other tagged players: Jimmy Nelson, Patrick Corbin, German Marquez Four pitchers to potentially be concerned about
Max Scherzer, Chris Archer, Yu Darvish and Marcus Stroman are generally the top of a strong slate, but all four may be question marks going into their starts tonight, mostly due to injuries. Chris Archer left his last start after two batters, both HRs, with a forearm strain. Forearms are often precursors to Tommy John problems. He’s potentially the biggest red flag here. In fact, considering his 89 mph aEV and 39.6% 95+ mph EV, exposure to some Boston bats against him in GPPs may be justifiable. Marcus Stroman at least struck out three of the seven batters he faced before leaving his last start with an elbow issue. He leads all qualified starters with a 61% ground ball rate, but his peripherals can be streaky (exactly four strikeouts in three of previous four starts) and he generally does not do a great job of limiting hard contact. The ground balls are really his saving grace (88.3 mph aEV, 5% Barrels/BBE). He too may be too big a risk due to injury concerns. Max Scherzer struck out just two Brewers through five innings before leaving the game with a calf injury. Add that to his recent neck injury and can players trust him tonight. The answer here is less clear. He had 10 strikeouts in the two preceding starts, suggesting the neck issue is no longer a concern and the Nationals have such a large lead in the division that there’s a good chance his removal last time out was precautionary, while they wouldn’t dare risk him if there was any hint of a real issue here. He’s also facing the Phillies. However, what’s to stop them from being just as cautious this time out. Perhaps some Max Scherzer exposure, but not as much as normal for multiple lineup players is the way to go…depending on what projected ownership numbers suggest later. Yu Darvish struck out 20 of his first 47 batters as a Dodger. He did not leave his last start with an injury, but did leave one three starts back in which he had struck out just two of 25 White Sox batters. Including that start, his last three have generated the following line: 14 IP – 11 ER – 5 HR – 7 BB – 14K – 67 BF – 12.8 SwStr% – 43.5 Hard%. The swinging strike rate is a positive sign and he even has a 55.2 GB% against LHBs, while maintaining strong peripherals against RHBs. However, batters from either side of the plate have a hard hit rate above 40% over this span. While not necessarily among the elite group mentioned here when healthy, thankfully, there are remaining options with some upside on this slate.
Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Marcus Stroman, Yu Darvish Brandon Guyer and Greg Allen scratched Thursday; Lonnie Chisenhall and Bradley Zimmer will replace in lineup
Guyer and Allen have both officially been scratched from the Cleveland Indians lineup for tonight’s game against the Chicago White Sox as a way to counteract Mike Pelfrey replacing Carlos Rodon (shoulder) as the opposing starting pitcher this evening. They’ll be replaced in the lineup by Lonnie Chisenhall and Bradley Zimmer, who will bat sixth and eighth respectively. Since Chisenhall and Zimmer are slotting directly into Guyer and Allen’s spots in the batting order, the remainder of the Indians previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Paul Hoynes via Twitter Other tagged players: Greg Allen, Bradley Zimmer, Lonnie Chisenhall
Carlos Rodon scratched Thursday, Mike Pelfrey will start in his place
Rodon has officially been scratched from his start in tonight’s game against the Cleveland Indians due to shoulder stiffness. In his place, Mike Pelfrey will receive the starting nod on the mound. This obviously means that the Cleveland hitters’ projected value will see a significant boost on Thursday night considering Pelfrey is a substantial downgrade over Rodon and he should not be considered as a roster-able starting pitcher in any format.
As reported by: Scott Merkin via Twitter Cubs and Pirates both drop more than two-tenths of a run since early afternoon
The largest run line movement over the course of the afternoon has taken place in Pittsburgh, where the Pirates have dropped from 3.77 to 3.53 implied runs and the Cubs are down over a quarter of a run from 4.23 to 3.97 since early this afternoon. No other team has seen a change of two-tenths of a run or more in this time. Both Jon Lester and Jameson Taillon are good pitchers who have struggled recently. There may be some rain in the area, but the evening forecast does not call for a major impact in Pittsburgh. Players can find run lines and movement for each team on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jameson Taillon Giancarlo Stanton is the only batter projected above 20% ownership tonight
On a half slate (eight games), without a single lineup projected above five runs, Giancarlo Stanton is projected to be tonight’s most popular batter and the only one expected to be in more than 20% of lineups tonight. While a matchup against an inconsistent lefty could lead to big things, Stanton has cooled down of late (58 wRC+, .25 Hard% over the last week) and inconsistent also means there’s some talent there as well. Fading tonight’s top projected hitter (RotoGrinders Player Projections) would be easily justified if ownership projections suggest demand may become overwhelming. Most DraftKings players are expected to have either Corey Kluber or Clayton Kershaw in their lineup tonight. On FanDuel, no other pitcher is projected above 10% currently, while they are both in the 20 to 25% range. If players really wanted to go contrarian, Jon Gray has been pitching better recently (six or seven strikeouts in four straight with a 57.9 GB% and 3.3 Hard-Soft% over his last seven). The Dodgers have a 48 wRC+, 19.0 K-BB% and 7.5 HR/FB over the last week. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Gray No major concerns, a couple of spots with delay potential in Thursday evening's forecast
Chicago (NL) Pittsburgh and Cleveland Chicago (AL) both have some potential for a delay, but neither spot is overly concerning. There are no other weather issues in Kevin’s evening forecast. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and find Kevin in Premium Chat in the hour leading up until lock for updates.
Giancarlo Stanton is tonight's top projected hitter, Cleveland only team with multiple top 10 bats
Tonight’s top projected hitter (RotoGrinders Player Projections) is Giancarlo Stanton. While Sean Newcomb’s issues are more about walks and consistency than hard contact, Stanton’s 198 wRC+, .453 ISO against LHP makes any matchup desirable. Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP), tonight’s second best projected batter, is also in a great spot against Matt Harvey, even on the road in New York. Harvey’s 8.3% Barrels/BBE is highest on the slate. Cleveland is the only team with multiple batters inside the top 10 (Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez) on both sites. Carlos Rodon is not a bad pitcher, but he has struggled to miss bats recently and the Cleveland offense has been on fire (152 wRC+ over the last week). FanDuel players looking for value, certainly want to pay attention to Jose Martinez (4.18 Pt/$/K) tonight. Value plays may be a bit more difficult to come by on DraftKings outside of complete punts, but Ozzie Albies is projected for 3.05 Pt/$/K with no other batter above 2.7.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Martinez, Ozzie Albies