DFS Alerts
RotoGrinders Player Projections love Cleveland and Arizona batters tonight
J.D. Martinez (241 wRC+, .519 ISO, 53.6 Hard% vs LHP) and Paul Goldschmidt (152 wRC+, .265 ISO, 51.1 Hard% vs LHP) are the top projected batters on ether site tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections). RHBs have a .342 wOBA and 2.4 K-BB% against Kyle Freeland, but with a reasonable 30.1 Hard% and 60 GB%. While he has a hard hit rate above 35% in four straight starts, he has a 73.9 GB% in his last two. Over this four start span, RHBs have a .436 wOBA, 3.0 K-BB%, 54.5 GB% and 45.6 Hard%. The Diamondbacks have only the third highest implied run line tonight (5.25). The team on top, Cleveland (5.8), has the next four highest projected batters on DraftKings (Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Jay Bruce) and four of the next five on FanDuel with only Elvis Andrus (120 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP) breaking them up, facing a pitcher who has allowed 30 HRs to RHBs alone in Texas tonight. Bruce and Andrus double as top values on DraftKings (2.27 Pt/$/K), while Ryan Braun (3.61 Pt/$/K) projects as a great value on FanDuel for just $3.2K at home against LHP Steven Brault (RHBs .389 wOBA, 5 HRs, 33.3 GB%, 32 Hard%, 205 BF career).
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Jay Bruce, Elvis Andrus, Ryan Braun
Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels each have a BABIP below .250
Cole Hamels and Jake Odorizzi each have ERAs well below their estimators (SIERA/xFIP/FIP/DRA) this season and the reason is the same in both cases. The BABIP Bros each have a mark below .250 this year. Hamels has a particularly low 15.5 K% and at this point the Rangers have to hope he’s pitching injured and not in the midst of a sudden and steep decline. There may be an advantage to rostering Seattle bats in a great hitting environment in Texas if players are still hesitant to attack an established name on the mound. RHBs have a 36.1 Hard% against him this year, while Robinson Cano has homered three times in 35 career PAs. Odorizzi allowed just one hit in his last outing, facing 21 batters, but had a 35.7 Hard% in that start. RHBs have a 42.2 Hard% against him with 18 HRs this year. This is a particularly dangerous spot for him, against a Yankee lineup he has somehow managed to avoid since his first start of the season despite being in the same division. Chase Headly and Ronald Torreyes both homered against him in that start. Aaron Judge (163 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP) and Gary Sanchez (132 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP) both homered on Sunday and are both looking great tonight. Each has a wRC+ above 200 and hard hit rate above 40% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Robinson Cano, Cole Hamels, Jake Odorizzi Evan Longoria has eight career HRs, 17 extra-base hits against C.C. Sabathia
Evan Longoria has a nice large 92 plate appearance sample against C.C. Sabathia over which he has a massive eight HRs and nine doubles, good for a .565 wOBA. Longoria homered in their most recent meeting in July, post-All Star break as well. Sabathia has excelled at contact management this season (84.4 mph aEV, 29.5% 95+ mph EV) with a 51.9 GB% and 3.1 Hard-Soft%, but has allowed nine HRs over his last seven starts (three in Baltimore last time out), all to RHBs, who have a .348 wOBA and 14.9 K%, but 53.8 GB% and -10.4 Hard-Soft%. Overall, his hard hit rate has been below 20% in seven of those nine starts, so something has to give here. The Rays have just an 87 wRC+, 26 K% and 12.2 HR/FB vs LHP. Important to note that this game is being played at Citi Field (home of the Mets) rather than the Trop for obvious reasons tonight. Citi is a slightly more negative run environment, but a bit more friendly to RH power than the Trop. Longoria may be the only player deserving of strong consideration in this matchup.
As reported by: Daily Baseball Data Other tagged players: CC Sabathia Carlos Carrasco has struck out 25 of his last 81 batters with a -32.7 Hard-Soft% last three starts
Carlos Carrasco is the clear top overall pitcher on the board (as well as the most expensive and only one above $10K on both sites). He has the top strikeout (27.9%) and swinging strike (13.2%) rates and is one of just two with above a 30% strikeout rate over the last month (30.5%, 14.8 SwStr%). He’s the top projected pitcher (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on either site by a decent margin and has been at his most dominant over his last three starts: 23 IP – 2 ER – 0 BB – 25 K – 81 BF – 54.5 GB% – (-32.7 Hard-Soft%). Yes, that’s a NEGATIVE 32.7 Hard-Soft%. The Tigers are a diminished group of still mostly RHBs, a side from which batters have just a .269 wOBA against Carrasco this year (23.6 K-BB%, 4.0 Hard-Soft%). The next best pitcher on the slate is Zack Greinke, who’s 27.4 K% and 12.6 SwStr% are both second on the slate. Strikeouts are down a bit over the last month (24.2 K%) and the Rockies have had some success against him this year (27.1 IP – 11 ER – 6 HRs – 2 BB – 31 K – 110 BF), though great peripherals have allowed him to generate strong daily fantasy outings despite the loud contact. There’s really no pitcher friendly environment he can face them in, but Arizona is better than Colorado. The Rockies have a 84 wRC+ on the road and 83 wRC+ vs RHP. Kenta Maeda has had some hard contact issues recently, but had just an 8.3 Hard% last time out. His 30.3 GB% over the last month is of no concern in San Francisco, especially when combining it with the top strikeout rate on the board over that span (32.4%). The largest concern is a workload limitation. He’s thrown exactly 84/85 pitches in four of his last five starts. For those looking to stack high priced bats, Brandon Woodruff could be the wildcard. He was the sixth rated Brewers prospect (80th in the Top 100 overall) with a 50 Future Value grade this pre-season. In four starts, he has league average peripherals with a 51.6 GB% and 84.7 mph aEV. He’s only allowed four runs, but has benefited from .250 BABIP, 90 LOB% and 4.8 HR/FB, though he did have an 11+ SwStr% in three of the four. His splits lean towards potential issues with LHBs (5.3 K-BB%, 37 GB%, 35.7 Hard%), which shouldn’t be an issue against the Pirates though (10.5 HR/FB, 29.8 Hard% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Zack Greinke, Kenta Maeda, Brandon Woodruff Several of the week's hottest hitters in great hitting environments tonight
There are four batters on the slate who exceed a 300 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.), led by Robinson Chirinos (329 wRC+, 37.5 Hard%, one HR), who faces Ariel Miranda, who is tied for the major league lead in HRs allowed (35) with a pitcher he has thrown 30 innings fewer than. Thirty of those have been surrendered to RHBs (29.3 GB%). Gary Sanchez (327 wRC+, 46.5 Hard%, two HRs) returned from a three game suspension earlier in the week with a fury this weekend. He’ll face noted reverse split and extreme fly ball pitcher Jake Odorizzi (RHBs 42.2 Hard%) at Citi Field (NOT the Trop) tonight. The next three hitters are all in Arizona tonight. J.D. Martinez (316 wRC+, 70 Hard%, seven HRs) leads the league in HRs over the last week and is one of two batters who exceeds a 70% hard hit rate with more than 12 PAs on the slate. Both are in this game. The other is Charlie Blackmon (147 wRC+, 71.4 Hard%, two HRs). Carlos Gonzalez (314 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, two HRs) probably doesn’t have enough time left in the season to make up for the disaster it has been previous to the last few weeks. He does have some strong career numbers against Zack Greinke though (five HRs, seven extra-base hits in 42 PAs) with one of those HRs coming this year.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Robinson Chirinos, Gary Sanchez Red hot Indians face off against rookie who has not struck out any of 24 major league batters faced
Seven of 16 teams on Monday night have an implied run line above 4.9 runs with the red hot Cleveland Indians (5.8) nearly half a run above any other offense currently. They face the rookie Myels Jaye. The 25 year-old right-hander was an “Other Prospect of Note” in the Detroit system as graded by Fangraphs in December. He’s appeared twice in relief so far, failing to strike out any of the 24 batters he’s faced and had just a 15.4 K% in 60.1 AAA IP after a 23 K% in 71.1 AA IP. He was closer to league average in both spots last year (39 IP AAA/122.2 IP AA). He’s likely in quite a bit of trouble in Cleveland, who has already seen him (14 BF). Francisco Lindor has a 103 wRC+ and .225 ISO vs RHP this year and he seems to be the low man in the lineup despite a 226 wRC+ over the last week. Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Lonnie Chisenhall and Jay Bruce all have a wRC+ between 128 and 138 with an ISO between .230 and .280 vs RHP. Remove Santana and the remaining four have an ISO bewteen .260 and .280 vs RHP. All, including Lindor and Santana have a hard hit rate above 30% with a fly ball rate above 40% against RHP. It’s going to be difficult to go wrong with the top two-thirds of this lineup, though affordability is another issue with only Bruce ($4K) and Chisenhall ($4.6K) below $5K on DraftKings. Both are also the only two below $3.9K on FanDuel, where Chisenhall ($2.9K) has to be considered a top value play tonight.
As reported by: Fangraphs Detroit Tigers Top 19 Prospects Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Lonnie Chisenhall, Francisco Lindor Bartolo Colon has a 40.4% HH% and 85.5% LOB% since joining Minnesota
Bartolo Colon currently finds himself in the midst of a stretch since signing with the Minnesota Twins where he hasn’t been completely terrible. In fact, he’s managed to “limit” his opponents to four earned runs or less in all 10 outings, and somehow was able to manufacture a seven-inning shutout against the Milwaukee Brewers six short starts ago. He’ll take the mound today for the eleventh time as a member of the Twins rotation against a Kansas City Royals lineup that is nothing special against right-handed pitching on the year, but are still in a perfect position to take advantage of a fastball pitcher like Colon that struggles striking hitters out (14.1% K%) from both sides of the plate. Although, on the season, Colon has been substantially worse against left-handed batters, evidenced by a 45.8% fly ball rate and 41.7% hard hit rate compared to a more respectable 49.0% groundball rate and 31.8% hard hit rate versus righties. Unfortunately, this Blue Jays squad lacks the ability to go super left-handed, but they do still possess a few bats that should be able to capitalize on Colon’s low strikeout and massive hard contact numbers. This means that Eric Hosmer (153 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .205 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (129 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .287 ISO) are the premier one-off option from this Kansas City lineup given their plate skills and power upside against right-handed pitching, while Melky Cabrera (.194 ISO vs RHP) and Brandon Moss (.219 ISO vs RHP) should be firmly considered as second tier options that are viable in tournaments and members of Royals stacks. With that said, Colon isn’t immune to right-handed batters by any means, but he certainly does have a better ability to control batted ball outcomes on a more consistent basis, which makes guys like Lorenzo Cain (117 wRC+, .352 wOBA vs RHP) and Salvador Perez (.222 ISO vs RHP) more effective as tournament options than core pieces to a cash game roster and are far from a priority for your lineups Sunday afternoon..
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Moss, Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez, Bartolo Colon
Little to monitor in terms of rain delay potential in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
It’s a relatively quiet day across Major League Baseball in terms of weather as the matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers in Los Angeles is the only game checking in with a risk classification in Sunday’s weather forecast. Kevin Roth currently has the game graded as YELLOW due to some low storm coverage and a minuscule chance of a rain delay. The other game of note comes to us in Atlanta where hitting conditions look to be in favor of the batters with the outer bands of Hurricane Irma kicking up some substantial wind and wind gust out to right field. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page The Reds currently check-in with the second-lowest implied team total (3.6) on Sunday's main slate
Jacob deGrom will take the mound this afternoon at home against the Cincinnati Reds aiming to rebound from a rough start his last time out against the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing nine runs (six earned) in only 3.2 innings pitched. However, despite the shaky outing, this is still an elite pitcher that can post a great outing at any given time, in any given start. For the most part, deGrom has looked like his old self throughout this entire season, but more specifically in the strikeout department. In his first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 followed by a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate two years ago, meaning that he has seemingly reverted back to the consistent strikeout pitcher that he had been in the early stages of his career this season. These statistics just further suggest that last year’s dip in strikeouts was likely the anomaly of the sample set considering deGrom’s 28.0% strikeout rate and 13.2% swinging strike rate through 28 starts would both set new career-highs and are at least somewhat within the range of his 2015 numbers. Additionally, he’ll receive the benefit of drawing a relatively neutral matchup against a middling Reds squad that ranks 14th in wRC+ (99), 9th in wOBA (.329), and 15th in ISO (.179) versus right-handed pitching. The Marlins do strike out at a 20.7% clip, meaning that this matchup is not necessarily a huge downgrade from a strikeout perspective for deGrom either, even though the Marlins do own a below-average strikeout rate. Despite the matchup, deGrom has an elite enough pitching profile to combat Cincinnati’s big-time bats that he should be able to neutralize some, if not, all of their power and on base ability and work his way through to a good outing. On top of that, deGrom arguably still possesses the highest upside among starting pitching options on Sunday’s slate, even at his high price point. This definitely does look to be one of those situations where the reward still outweighs the risk in cash games and tournaments, meaning deGrom remains one of the pitchers with the highest likelihood to post a tournament winning score across the industry this afternoon.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds YELLOW in TB-BOS game is the only weather concern on Saturday's MLB slate
There is not much of note in Saturday night’s MLB weather forecast for the 10-game main slate as the game in Boston between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox is the only contest to receive any sort of risk designation from Kevin Roth in his latest weather update. The game checks in with a grade of YELLOW due to a few storms in the area with some low coverage. According to Kevin, it would be relatively unlucky if these storms were to cause a rain delay but he obviously cannot rule out the small chance a storm cell finds its way over the stadium. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Carlos Martinez has notched a 23.2% K-BB% and 3.07 xFIP versus RHB
Carlos Martinez is coming off a stellar performance his last time out against the San Diego Padres, pitching a complete game shutout en route to 10 strikeouts. Somewhat more encouraging, he has also been relatively consistent in the strikeout department, managing seven or more punchouts in all but two of his previous eight starts. Martinez is far from the top real life pitcher on this slate, despite having the second-highest salary on DraftKings and FanDuel, but he’ll certainly be the beneficiary of a significant matchup boost against an exploitable, righty-heavy Pittsburgh Pirates offense. This Pirates lineup is basically as left-handed as they can get with three lefties cracking the order this evening. This is always a positive sign for Martinez, as he has some serious control (10.7% BB%) and hard contact (35.5% HH%) issues against left-handed batters. It also doesn’t hurt that the Pirates lack any lefties that would really give us any serious cause for concern in rostering Martinez in this matchup. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Martinez has been as dominant as ever against right-handed batters this season, evidenced by a 28.9% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate, and a below-average 28.7% hard hit rate to go along with solid ground ball skills to hitters from both sides of the plate. Further moving the needle in favor of rostering Martinez is the fact that the Pirates rank 27th in wRC+ (87), 27th in wOBA (.307), and 29th in ISO (.141) against right-handed pitching. So even though the Pirates own the second-best strikeout rate (19.0% K%) versus righties, Martinez’s floor remains one of the highest among starting pitchers on Saturday’s main slate. Clearly, with these statistics Martinez vaults close to the same tier as Chris Sale as the top starting pitching option tonight but he still finds himself just behind and is better reserved for tournament formats given Sale’s large advantage in the strikeout department (36.1% K%) and the relatively small gap in salary across the industry.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jose Berrios has a 2.79 SIERA and 28.6% K-BB% in his last four starts
Despite a minor hiccup his last time out against the Tampa Bay Rays on the road, Berrios had broken out of his slump in a big way over his previous three starts against the Chicago White Sox (twice) and Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing just three combined earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched while striking out 27 batters in the process. Berrios certainly seems to have figured it out at the Major League level for the most part and has officially “arrived” as the front-end of the rotation starting pitcher he had been continuously touted as during the last couple of seasons. Since being called up from AAA in mid-May, he has a more than respectable 122:36 K: BB ratio and has seen his walk rate drop to 7.0% from the astronomical 12.5% walk rate he allowed in 14 starts last year. Berrios has also been great at limiting hard contact thus far, coming into tonight’s start with a 28.2% hard hit rate, and though that mark may be somewhat fluky due to sample size, his hard contact rate would still be below league average even if it was to increase a couple percentage points over time. Clearly, it’s very easy to see that Berrios is a great young pitcher with strikeout potential (23.7% K%) who has discovered decent control in the big leagues. Tonight, he draws an above-average matchup with a Kansas City Royals squad that ranks 21st in wRC+ (91), 23rd in wOBA (.314), and 22nd in ISO (.160) versus right-handed pitching. The Royals do only strike out at a 19.8% clip, checking in with the ninth-best mark in the Majors by less than a percentage point, which doesn’t necessarily favor Berrios but he has shown the ability this season to induce punch outs on his own regardless of matchup. So, on a slate with several similarly priced, borderline elite arms outside of Chris Sale, he is just as likely to post a top score as any of them and although it would have been nice to see a couple less left-handed batters in the Kansas City lineup Saturday night, Berrios remains a borderline cash game target and more than viable in large-field tournaments given potential upside any time he takes the mound.
As reported by: FanGraphs Mikie Mahtook scratched Saturday; Andrew Romine replaces and will bat eighth
Mahtook has officially been scratched from the Detroit Tigers lineup for today’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays due to left groin soreness. He’ll be replaced in the said lineup by Andrew Romine, who will take over the left field duties and bat eighth. This lineup change will bump Jeimer Candelario all the way up to the two-hole from his original position of seventh, while JaCoby Jones moves up one spot to seventh in the batting order. However, the remainder of the Tigers previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Tigers PR via Twitter Other tagged players: Andrew Romine Welington Castillo scratched Friday; Caleb Joseph replaces him in the lineup batting 9th, Seth Smith moves up to #8
Castillo has officially been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles lineup for tonight’s game against the Cleveland Indians due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the said lineup by Caleb Joseph, who will take over the catcher duties and bat ninth. This lineup change will bump Seth Smith up one spot in the order to eighth opposed to his original position of ninth. However, the remainder of the Orioles previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: @Orioles
An affordable Jake Lamb on FanDuel expected to be the most popular batter on the slate
Jake Lamb hasn’t been very potent with the bat recently, which may be why he costs just $3K on FanDuel. He still has a 136 wRC+ and .272 ISO vs RHP this year and is batting third for the offense with the top run line on the slate, which is probably why he’s projected to be the most popular hitter on the slate and the only one currently expected to be in 20% of lineups. On DraftKings, no hitter even projects to be 15% owned right now. A lot of high priced pitching, particularly Max Scherzer could be responsible for the offensive spread. Scherzer is projected to be the most popular pitcher on either site with a much more affordable Luke Weaver quite a bit behind, though his cost has been rising recently as well. There are a number of usable arms on tonight’s slate, some of them with injury concerns, Six pitcher project for double digit ownership on DraftKings right now, four on FanDuel. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Luke Weaver