DFS Alerts
Kyle Gibson has a 22.K% since the break with at least a 50% GB rate in all eight starts
While no one can call Jameson Taillon’s off the field success a disappointment this year, what he’s done on the field hasn’t exactly lived up to his top prospect billing. His 21.6 K% (8.3 SwStr%) and 4.50 ERA/4.23 SIERA combination are about as marginal as the Cubs 94 wRC+ on the road and 98 wRC+ vs RHP. Taillon has not been very limited by pitch counts, but an increasing walk rate (at least three in three of his last four starts) rarely allows him to pitch much past the fifth inning. Walking is one thing the Cubs have successfully done this season (9% on the road and vs RHP). However, walks don’t generate a lot of fantasy points, while Tallion generally keeps it on the ground (49.3%) without a lot of hard contact (84.8 mph aEV, 4.4% Barrels/BBE) in a pitcher’s park. With the Cubs projected for just 3.8 runs, aside from an affordable Ian Happ at the top of the lineup, this may be a spot players might want to avoid altogether. Another spot players may want to consider avoiding is in the case of a pitcher recently on the rise. Kyle Gibson’s entire career has been a frustration of high ground ball and league average swinging strike rates that haven’t resulted in much. Don’t look now, but he 22 K% (11.6 SwStr%) since break and a 50% or better ground ball rate in all eight starts. A hard hit rate above 35% in four of his last five starts and the Royals’ 14.4 K% over the last week may still make him too dangerous to start, but over his last three starts, he’s put up this line: 19.2 IP – 3 ER – 2 BB – 20 K – 77 BF. With ground balls coming from either side of the plate, LHBs have a 19.8 K-BB% and 26.4 Hard% over this three game span, while RHBs have 10.1 K-BB% and 42.6 Hard%. If there is still an intent on attacking him, perhaps it should be with RHBs here. The Royals have a 4.69 implied run line that’s currently fourth highest on the board.
Other tagged players: Jameson Taillon, Ian Happ
Players paying up for pitching should look to the St Louis @ San Diego game for salary relief
Those intending to pay up for either Clayton Kershaw or Corey Kluber tonight may want to take a closer look at the matchup in San Diego as well. While both Cardinals and Padres reside on the lower half of the board with implied run lines between four an four and a half runs, there may be some hidden (or not so well hidden value in those games). Clayton Richard is the more obvious target here. He’s an elite ground ball generator, but a below average strikeout rate and tendency towards harder contact makes him a pitcher that players can still attack. He’s allowed five HRs over his last three starts and has a hard hit rate above 36% in 10 of his last 13 starts. Over this span, 81 LHBs have a .347 wOBA with one HR, 29.6 K-BB%, 57.7 GB% and 3.8 Hard-Soft%. However, 277 RHBs have a .398 wOBA with 12 HRs, 4% K-BB%, 60.2 GB% and 26.7 Hard-Soft%. In general, stack any RH Cardinal bats, but the player that is an absolute must tonight is Jose Martinez on FanDuel for just $2.6K. He’s been destroying LHP to the tune of a 254 wRC+, .520 ISO, 45 Hard% and 47.5% fly ball rate. Stephen Piscotty (90 wRC+, .107 ISO vs LHP) is cheap on either site and has a 212 wRC+ (52.9 Hard%) over the last week. Paul DeJong (144 wRC+, .333 ISO vs LHP) and Yadier Molina (137 wRC+, .305 ISO vs LHP) are both generally affordable on either site. Don’t sleep on the Padres either. Lance Lynn (.229 BABIP, 82.2 LOB%) is over-rated and over-valued. He’s struck out more than four in just three of his last 11 starts. He has generated a league average ground ball and hard hit rate against batters from either side of the plate this season. The difference has been an 18.4 K-BB% against RHBs and a 2.1% rate against LHBs, who have a .349 wOBA with 15 HRs against him. Corey Spangenberg (125 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP), Yangervis Solarte (117 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP) and even Carlos Asuaje (111 wRC+, .119 ISO vs RHP) can provide significant salary relief.
Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina, Clayton Richard, Lance Lynn, Cory Spangenberg, Yangervis Solarte, Carlos Asuaje Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber both on an eight game slate; Tanner Roark a more affordable pivot
Having both Corey Kluber (34.3 K%, 15.8 SwStr%) and Clayton Kershaw (31.2 K%, 14.2 SwStr%) available on an eight game slate seems like a bit of overkill. Kluber has struck out just seven in each of his last two starts. While he’s gone eight innings in each start and has pitched into the seventh inning in 14 of the last 15 starts he did not leave with an injury, prior to his last four starts, he’d struck out fewer than eight in just one of his previous 18. It’s now three of four. Still, continue to expect great things against the White Sox (88 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% vs RHP). Players may want to utilize PlateIQ to see the numbers for the confirmed lineup once it’s released, as the White Sox have had a lot of turnover, but there’s really nothing they can do that would keep Kluber from being a great option tonight. Kershaw was limited to 70 pitches in his return from the DL. He efficiently struck out seven of the 20 Padres he faced with an 84.6 GB% and -2.8 Hard-Soft%. He’s in a similarly delicious spot tonight. The Rockies have an 81 wRC+ (24.3 K%) on the road and 74 wRC+ (7.0 HR/FB) over the last week. The Dodgers may have built an insurmountable lead (still 10.5 on Arizona), but it may be time to let their Ace make a statement even if it’s only 85-90 pitches. No other pitcher is projected within 10 points of either one of these guys on either site (RotoGrinders Player Projections) However, for those looking to pay up for Cleveland bats or Giancarlo Stanton, Tanner Roark may be a terrific pivot. He’s struck out 26 of last 74 batters and has a double digit SwStr% in three of his last four. He hasn’t exceeded a 12.4 SwStr% in any of those starts though, so don’t expect this pace to continue. He also has a 54.9 GB% and 2.0 Hard-Soft%% since start of August (six starts). He faces the Phillies (79 wRC+, 15.2 K-BB%, 9.9 HR/FB on the road, 89 wRC+, 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP, 6.7 HR/FB last seven days).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Tanner Roark Joses Ramirez and Martinez both have a wRC+ above 300 over the last seven days.
A pair of Joses are still the hottest hitters on the slate with the only wRC+ marks above 300 (10 PA min.) over the last week. Jose Ramirez (330 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, five HRs) and Jose Martinez (310 wRC+, 57.9 Hard%, three HRs) are both terrific plays tonight with the usage of the latter (against Clayton Richard RHBs .376 wOBA, 36.8 Hard%) perhaps making it a bit easier to afford the former (against Carlos Rodon RHBs .334 wOBA, 32.6 Hard%). Rhys Hoskins (199 wRC+, 69.2 Hard%, one HR) has the highest hard hit rate on the slate. Nobody else above 65%. The one HR and six walks in 24 PAs may signify that there’s really very little reason to throw him anything hittable right now. Tanner Roark, who is missing more bats and once again excelling at generating weak contact, might be a difficult matchup for him tonight. Jose Ramirez also has sole custody of the HR lead over the last week, considering only teams that are active on tonight’s slate.
Other tagged players: Jose Martinez, Clayton Richard, Rhys Hoskins, Tanner Roark No team currently has an implied run line above 4.85 tonight
Not a single team on tonight’s slate has a projected run line above 4.85 runs. While it’s a pitching rich board, there are still a few spots ripe for attack. The Marlins have the highest implied run line on the board (4.85) against Sean Newcomb. He doesn’t appear the most favorable target with most of his issues coming due to walks and inconsistency, nor are the Marlins the most potent offense. While some Giancarlo Stanton (198 wRC+, .453 ISO, 41.9 Hard%, 43 FB% vs LHP) is completely warranted, this is not a spot where players should feel obligated to load up. It may even be reasonable to fade considering the wide range of outcomes that Newcomb is capable of. The Twins are at 4.81 runs in Kansas City for Sam Gaviglio’s Royals debut. He’s allowed 14 HRs in 11 starts with his 8.2% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board. If players think that the bigger park in Kansas City should be an upgrade for his skill set (or lack there of), consider that where he’s coming from (Seattle) is one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the league. Cleveland (4.79) is the only other offense above 4.7 runs. They’re the hottest offense in baseball (152 wRC+ and 13.1 K% last seven days). They have a just a 7.0 K-BB% vs LHP this year and Carlos Rodon has struck out exactly four in four of his last five starts. His 89.2 mph aEV and 41.7% 95+ mph aEV is highest on the board. While his splits haven’t been as extreme as usual, that’s likely because LHBs (69 faced) have just a 2.2 Soft% against. RHBs (228 faced) have 10 of the 12 HRs he’s allowed. The potency of RH Cleveland bats against LHP is endless with some very affordable options like Yandy Diaz (138 wRC+, 48 Hard%), Yan Gomes (127 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Brandon Guyer (141 wRC+, 171 ISO since 2016) paving the a path towards Jose Ramirez (135 wRC+, .236 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (123 wRC+, .188 ISO), Francisco Lindor (132 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Austin Jackson (170 wRC+, .245 ISO).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Sean Newcomb, Sam Gaviglio, Carlos Rodon, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Yandy Diaz, Yan Gomes Jay Bruce scratched Wednesday due to neck stiffness
Bruce is a last minute scratch after the neck stiffness that has given him trouble in recent weeks flared up during pre-game. Tyler Naquin will now play center field with Abraham Almonte shifting to left and Lonnie Chisenhall taking over in right.
As reported by: Paul Hoynes
Tim Anderson scratched Wednesday; Tyler Saladino will replace him in the field and in the batting order
Saladino replaces Anderson straight up. No reason for the scratch has been provided at this point, but it doesn’t change the outlook for Carlos Carrasco or for the White Sox offense as a whole. Carrasco is far and away the top arm on the main slate, and the White Sox should be avoided.
As reported by: @WhiteSox Other tagged players: Tyler Saladino Run lines for Giants, Blue Jays and Cubs all down significantly from early afternoon
The San Francisco Giants are down 0.34 runs since early this afternoon, from 5.43 implied runs to 5.09 currently. Buster Posey and Denard Span are both on the bench tonight. A Toronto lineup without Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Steve Pearce is perhaps behind a drop from 4.39 to 4.0 runs even over the course of the afternoon. The Cubs are the other big dropper this afternoon. They’ve gone from 4.29 to 3.95 runs in Pittsburgh against Gerrit Cole. The Rockies are also down slightly, from 6.57 to 6.41 runs, but still nearly a run above any other team. Players can find run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Evening forecast optimistic, but with some risk remaining in a couple of spots
One game has already been postponed (Yankees Orioles), but a couple more are still at risk tonight, although Kevin is slightly more optimistic than he was this morning about Toronto Boston and Philadelphia New York (AL). The latter game is going to be against the clock. They may be able to play long enough to have an official game, but the later it goes, the riskier it becomes. The good news is that this game is not likely to draw great daily fantasy interest from either end. It should be fairly easy to fade the entire affair if need be. The Blue Jays and Red Sox has more offensive fantasy appeal. Kevin currently has it at YELLOW/ORANGE, but players are going to want to be sure to follow his updates in RotoGrinders Premium Chat from 6 to 7pm ET for more on this game. Kansas City Detroit and Cleveland @ Chicago (AL) could both see short delays with Detroit the riskier of the two, but both are YELLOW for now. The entire evening forecast can be found on the Weather page.
Carlos Carrasco currently projected to be twice as popular as any other pitcher tonight
Carlos Carrasco is expected to be the over-whelming favorite on this slate with his current projected ownership doubling that of Jose Quintana, who may end up being the second most popular pitcher on the slate. It’s a pitching deficient slate with Carrasco really the only guy combining enormous upside with a strong matchup. He’s the most expensive pitcher on either site though, which means that players are going to have to sacrifice something offensively in order to afford him. If looking to fade Carrasco, this would seem an ideal opportunity to go out on a limb with some of the younger, in-established arms tonight. Dinelson Lamet (29.5 K%) is also sitting there in a reasonable matchup and ownership projection tonight too. Carrasco and the lack of arms afterward may be the reason not a single batter is currently projected above 15% despite the game at Coors with the home team above six implied runs. Ownership projects are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jose Quintana, Dinelson Lamet Andrew Moore's 91.2 mph aEV and 45.3% 95+ mph EV are both highest on the board.
Andrew Moore throws a lot of strikes. He has a 4.3 BB% at AAA this season and a 3.1 BB% in six starts (38 innings) at the major league level this year. The biggest difference is that his 21.6 K% has been nearly perfectly cut in half (10.5%) at the major league level. Perhaps he throws too many strikes. Though still an extremely small sample, his 91.2 mph aEV and 45.3% 95+ mph EV are both highest on the board with nobody else being above 40%. He’s allowed at least three ERs in every start with a high of four strikeouts in the majors. Houston is the fifth of five teams projected above five runs by Vegas tonight (5.29). The fact that RHBs have made hard contact at a higher rate than LHBs against Moore (38% vs 31.7%) plays further in Houston’s favor tonight, though batters from either side have a wOBA above .350. Despite the high price tags, George Springer (139 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Altuve (164 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP) must be strongly considered against a pitcher who doesn’t miss many bats and allows that much hard contact in the air (RHBs 34.6 GB%, LHBs 16.7%). Additional Houston exposure would depend on how the lineup shakes out. Someone like Marwin Gonzalez (153 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP), who is SS eligible, could have some value for just $3K on DraftKings with a favorable lineup spot.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, Andrew Moore NYY-BAL postponed on Wednesday; game has been rescheduled for tomorrow at 1:35 PM ET
Make sure not to roster any players from this game, as they will not accrue fantasy points. The teams will play tomorrow at 1:35 ET, presumably with the same SPs set to square off.
As reported by: Brendan Kuty Rockies flood the top of the RotoGrinders Player Projections against Johnny Cueto
When the Rockies are at home, either Charlie Blackmon or Nolan Arenado are generally the top projected player on the slate depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher. With Johnny Cueto having an injury riddled season and potentially the worst one of his career without much of a platoon split (batters from either side above a .325 wOBA and 32 Hard%), Blackmon and Arenado appear one-two in the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. Gerardo Parra and Mark Reynolds make it four Rockies among the top eight on either site with only one batter from the opposing side at Coors appearing in the top 10 and Buster Posey left last night’s game due to injury. Other names among the top 10 on both sites tonight are Giancarlo Stanton, who has cooled down to a 44 wRC+ and 29.4 Hard% over the last week and has a difficult matchup, though the platoon advantage against Gio Gonzalez, and Rhys Hoskins (197 wRC+, .368 ISO vs RHP, 184 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days), who’s biggest concern against Robert Gsellman (RHBs .368 wOBA, 32.6 Hard%) might be the weather. Value bats may be a bit more difficult to go for tonight unless players are willing to punt with minimum priced or near minimally priced batters. Among those projected for at least eight points on either site, Parra (2.3 Pt/$/K) projects to double as a top value along with teammate Jonathan Lucroy (2.28 Pt/$/K) on DraftKings. On FanDuel, it may be Reynolds who doubles as a top value (3.52 Pt/$/K) along with Salvador Perez (3.55 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra, Mark Reynolds, Giancarlo Stanton, Rhys Hoskins, Jonathan Lucroy, Salvador Perez Jack Flaherty was out-pitched by Dillon Peters in their debut last week, but has superior matchup tonight
Dillon Peters (40 Future Value grade via Fangraphs) and Jack Flaherty (50 Future Value grade) both made their major league debuts last week and both make their second start tonight. While Flaherty had the better outlook as a prospect overall, both had great matchups that night against the Giants and Phillies. Peters had the better performance, striking out eight of 27 Phillies (11 SwStr%) with 81.3 GB% and -31.2 Hard-Soft%. It was certainly a dominant debut, but he takes a step up in class tonight against an all right-handed Washington lineup. PlateIQ shows the confirmed lineup with a .351 wOBA and .200 ISO vs LHP, but also just a 15.8 K%. Flaherty was knocked out after four innings, having allowed five runs in San Francisco. However, a look underneath the hood suggests he may have not been that bad. He struck out six of 21 batters with just one walk, a 50 GB% and 28.6 Hard%. A .538 BABIP and 33.3 HR/FB don’t necessarily seem deserved or sustainable. His second start is in San Diego tonight. The Padres strike out 25.1% of the time against RHP. That may be enough to give him another shot on a pitching deficient slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Dillon Peters Carlos Carrasco is the top projected pitcher by a large margin tonight
Dinelson Lamet (29.5 K%) and Carlos Carrasco (27.7 K%) have the top strikeout rates on the board tonight among those with more than one start. Each are also top three on the board over the last month (Lamet 29.4%, Carrasco 31.3%). Removing pitchers returning from the DL tonight and those with no more than three starts, Jose Quintana (25.8 K%) is the only other pitcher above 25% for the season. Kenta Maeda (24.7%) has struck out 30.8% of batters over the last month though. Carrasco is the top projected pitcher (RotoGrinders Player Projections) by more than seven points on either site and may still be the top value even at the highest price on a weak board on the road against the White Sox (21.3 K-BB% last seven days). Lamet is at home in a reasonable matchup against the Cardinals. His 8.8% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board among those with at least 40 innings pitched, but he has a -4.4 Hard-Soft% over his last seven starts. RHBs have a .216 wOBA, 25.9 K-BB% and -14.9 Hard-Soft% over this span, something to consider depending on how the Cardinals line up tonight. Quintana does not have the SwStr rate (8.5%) to support his strikeouts and has gone no more than six innings in any start for the Cubs since his first, but he’s in a great park in Pittsburgh against an offense with a 10.9 HR/FB at home and 86 wRC+ vs LHP. Maeda allowed seven runs in Arizona and has allowed seven HRs over last five starts to go along with all of those strikeouts. Although his ground ball rate hasn’t exceeded 40% over that span and his hard hit rate has been above 40% over his last two, his 85 mph aEV this year is third lowest on the board, while his 4.4% Barrels/BBE and 29.5% 95+ mph EV are second. The Diamondbacks have a 27.6 HR/FB over the last week, but 23.6 K% vs RHP (24.3% on the road). Sonny Gray has gone exactly seven innings with nine strikeouts in each of his last two starts. His ground ball rate has only been 36.4% in these outings, but his hard hit rate is just 21.2%. Difficult weather conditions and a high powered offense in Baltimore (18.0 HR/FB at home, 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP, 23.6 HR/FB last seven days) may be too much to ask him to overcome at a cost above $8.5K.
Other tagged players: Dinelson Lamet, Jose Quintana, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray