DFS Alerts
Top projected batters tonight include several from each side at Coors
Tonight’s top projected hitters are a pair of Coors bats. Charlie Blackmon (142 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP this year) should enjoy a matchup against Julio Teheran (LHBs .355 wOBA, 35.1 Hard%, 37.8 GB% since 2016), while Freddie Freeman (188 wRC+, .339 ISO vs RHP this year) faces a returning Chad Bettis, making his first start of the season (LHBs .302 wOBA, 25.8 Hard%, 56.8 GB% last season). Aaron Judge (171 wRC+, .317 ISO vs RHP) rounds out the top three, but he continues to struggle since the break (55 wRC+ last seven days) and Rafael Montero has managed contact well (84 mph aEV), despite his other faults. He has allowed seven HRs over his last four starts though. Giancarlo Stanton, who has homered in nine of his last 10 games, appears fourth against the very contact prone lefty, Ty Blach (11.8 K%). The Braves and Rockies both enjoy a pair of players each among the top 10 projections (Ender Inciarte, Gerardo Parra) on either site, while both Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant appear among the top 10 on FanDuel (Bryant currently sits 11th on DraftKings). While players probably aren’t concerned as much with value bats tonight considering the state of pitching, Ender Inciarte (3.93 Pt/$/K) costs just $3.2K on FanDuel, while Chris Davis (2.96 Pt/$/K) projects as the top value for less than $3K on DraftKings against Yovani Gallardo.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Ender Inciarte, Gerardo Parra, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Davis
Kevin Gasuman has a 29.8 K% over his last 11 starts.
There are three pitchers who exceed a 25 K% tonight. One (Asher Wojciechowski 25.3 K%) has just six starts and over one-third of his innings out of the bullpen. Another (Jose Quintana 25.4 K%) has just an 8.5 SwStr% and has a 25.7 Hard-Soft% since the All-Star break and six HRs allowed over his last four starts. He’s still tonight’s top projected pitcher via the RotoGrinders Player Projections, but costs $11.6K on DraftKings ($3.2K less on FanDuel). The other (Zack Greinke 28.1 K%) has allowed nine ERs and three HRs over his last 12.2 innings and only hosts the Houston Astros (129 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP this year) in Arizona. Greinke has, at least, struck out at 25 of his last 78 batters and is the only pitcher the Daily K Predictor projects above six strikeouts (6.56). Another potential top pitcher (Michael Fulmer) returns from a two week DL stint with an elbow issue to face the heat in Texas, where the the Rangers have a 17 HR/FB at home and vs RHP. The pitching options are far from ideal on tonight’s slate, but the daily fantasy sites still mandate that players must select at least or even even two, so the cards that have been dealt will have to be played. There are a few pitchers who are at least in interesting spots tonight. The Padres strike out in a quarter of PAs at home and vs RHP. Jerad Eickhoff is a fairly average arm (20.5 K%, 4.45 ERA, 4.65 SIERA), but average in a great spot may be as good as gold tonight. Jackob Junis has just a 19.1 K% and 4.71 ERA (4.78 SIERA) in 44 innings this season. However, he is coming off the best start of his career (8 IP – 1 ER – 0 BB – 7 K) and has struck out 30% of AAA batters in 71 innings this season. The A’s have struck out in a quarter of PAs at home and vs RHP as well. The Rays have an absurd 37.6 K% over the last week, which could make anybody playable, though maybe still not Nick Tepesch. Something nobody could have seen coming two months ago though, Kevin Gausman has a 29.8 K% over his last 11 starts. He has still allowed nine HRs over that span and four runs or more four times, but one run or less six times over that span and is one of the few pitchers who can combine that kind of upside with a favorable park in Seattle tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Asher Wojciechowski, Jose Quintana, Zack Greinke, Michael Fulmer, Jakob Junis, Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Tepesch Kris Bryant and Adrian Beltre only two batters on the slate above a 300 wRC+ last seven days
A pair of Third Basemen are the hottest hitters on the slate and the only two with a wRC+ above 300 over the last seven days. Kris Bryant (312 wRC+, 31.8 Hard%, one HR) is at home against Asher Wojciechowski, who has not allowed a lot of hard contact to RHBs (29.4% in small sample), but only generates a 32.8 GB% against them. Adrian Beltre (302 wRC+, 43.8 Hard%, two HRs) is also at home, but with a bit tougher matchup against Michael Fulmer (RHBs .280 wOBA, 27.9 Hard%). However, Fulmer has not yet made a start in August, returning from the DL with an elbow issue. He’s allowed RHBs a 35.3 Hard% over three starts before hitting the DL. Nelson Cruz (293 wRC+, 53.3 Hard%, four HRs) is the only other batter on the slate with a wRC+ above 270 over the last week (10 PA min.). He’s in an interesting spot at home tonight against Kevin Gausman, who traditionally struggles with same handed batters (.349 wOBA, 32 Hard% since last season). However, over his last 11 starts, RHBs have just a .249 wOBA and 25.5 K-BB% against him, though with a 36.1 Hard%. Giancarlo Stanton (250 wRC+, 60 Hard%, six HRs) leads the majors with his six HRs over the last week. No other batter in the majors has more than four. While Ty Blach does not allow a lot of hard contact to RHBs (31%), he does allow a ton of contact overall (11.8 K%).
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton Five of 20 teams implied for 5.5 runs or more with Colorado, Arizona and Texas all active parks tonight
Five of 20 teams in play tonight (25%) currently have an implied run line above 5.5 runs with four more above 4.9 runs. It’s not a pitching rich slate and some of the quality arms who are in play are pitching in places like Arizona and Texas, while there’s also a game at Coors tonight. With the Rockies leading the slate with a 6.38 run total, hosting an extreme fly ball oriented, right handed pitcher, Charlie Blackmon (142 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP this year) may be more popular than any pitcher on the slate. Although Freddie Freeman (188 wRC+, .339 ISO vs RHP this season) should be pretty popular too against the returning Chad Bettis. High end bats with speculative pitching may be the way to go tonight without concern towards stacking any particular lineup. Giancarlo Stanton (150 wRC+, .360 ISO vs LHP this year) faces a contact prone lefty (Ty Blach 11.8 K%) and may have already homered again by the time players read this. Justin Upton (182 wRC+, .306 ISO vs LHP in 2017) faces Martin Perez (RHBs .353 wOBA since 2016) in Texas. Josh Donaldson (132 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP this season), faces Jake Odorizzi, whom he has four HRs against in 27 PAs and Baseball Savant records a 98.3 mph aEV (11 BBEs). Michael Conforto (168 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP this year) gets to face Luis Cessa (LHBs 37.1 Hard% career) in Yankee Stadium. Even considering all of those bats with great potential tonight doesn’t even touch upon the Yankees (5.71 runs) or Cubs (5.63) with the highest implied run lines outside of Coors tonight. Players should seriously consider building a lineup with a concentration of strong bats rather than one around any single pitcher.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, Josh Donaldson, Michael Conforto The Braves own the second-lowest implied total (3.6) on Sunday's main slate
Michael Wacha has been extremely consistent from a run prevention standpoint this season, evidenced by his recent stretch of allowing three earned runs or more just twice in his last nine outings while recording five or more strikeouts all but on one occasion. The recent improvement in his skill set over his last five starts (24.2% K% and 5.8% BB%) provides even more optimism for Wacha’s performance going forward in the final stretch of the season. Wacha has also shown the ability to control batted ball events relatively well, quietly limiting hard contact to 28.1% of the time to hitters from both sides of the plate. This afternoon, Wacha will also receive the added benefit of facing a Braves lineup that is downright abysmal against right-handed pitching, ranking 28th in wRC+ (85), 26th in wOBA (.307), and 28th in ISO (.144). They do, however, only strike out at a 19.9% clip, possibly capping Wacha’s ceiling just a bit. Considering how weak Sunday’s main slate is for starting pitching options, it’s unlikely that Wacha flys under the radar but some gamers may be unwilling to splurge for his elevated price tag with Corey Kluber being the clear top pitcher for all formats across the industry. Wacha certainly makes more sense as an SP2 on DraftKings but an argument can be made for fading Kluber on FanDuel to pay up for more high upside bats with Wacha anchoring the starting pitcher slot. With his ability to limit hard contact and walks, a six-inning performance with roughly a strikeout or so an inning could be more than enough to compete in large-field tournaments on Sunday afternoon.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds
Despite recent results, R.A. Dickey still has a 4.81 SIERA since the All-Star break
R.A. Dickey has shown that he can still be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, but he hasn’t been as awful lately, allowing three earned runs or less in three of his last four outings. Dickey always seems to do just enough, consistently enough, to limit the damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a small drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 16.2% to go along with a 9.2% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (48.8%) and limit hard contact to just 26.2% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it’s difficult to imagine Dickey’s 4.03 ERA continuing to improve with a 5.05 SIERA while allowing a minimum of three runs in 13 of 22 starts this season. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the St. Louis Cardinals offense more of a stack or fade situation in tournaments this afternoon since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but difficult to predict where said production will come from. Matt Carpenter (133 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .225 ISO vs RHP) and Tommy Pham (136 wRC+, .382 wOBA vs RHP) are the clear top targets from this Cardinals lineup, while Paul DeJong (114 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .194 ISO vs RHP), Kolten Wong (116 wRC+, .351 wOBA vs RHP), and Jose Martinez (.194 ISO vs RHP) are more of second tier options but are logical members to round out a Cardinals stack in tournaments if deciding to deploy that strategy on Sunday’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Kolten Wong, Jose Martinez Only the HOU-TEX game has potential rain issues in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
Compared to Saturday night, it’s a relatively quiet day on the weather front across Major League Baseball as the only game receiving a risk classification is the game in Texas between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers with a grade of YELLOW/ORANGE due to thunderstorms potentially developing in the afternoon. Hitters in this contest should remain in play given the low postponement chances but starting pitchers remain risky as they always are when in-game rain delays are a potential threat. Be sure to check out Kevin Roth’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Corey Kluber has an absurd 38.6% K-BB% and 1.89 SIERA in five starts since the All-Star break
To say that Corey Kluber has been pitching well of late would be a massive understatement, as the Cleveland Indians’ ace has recorded double-digit strikeouts in 11 of his last 13 starts dating back to the beginning of June while allowing three earned runs or more on just three occasions in that time span. That is just an incredible stretch of outings for any starting pitcher but even more impressive considering Kluber was activated off of the disabled list right before the start of the aforementioned time period. Across those 13 starts, Kluber has struck out 40.5% of the batters he has faced while issuing free passes at just a 4.3% clip and surrendering hard contact only 23.4% of the time. Somewhat unbelievably, Kluber has been even more ridiculously good since the All-Star break, posting a 41.4% strikeout rate, 2.8% walk rate, and a 1.89 SIERA that all equates to a 60:4 K:BB ratio in just 39 innings. With those type of numbers, it wouldn’t matter who Kluber was facing this afternoon and he would still be in play for any format, but amazingly, he receives the privilege of taking on a Tampa Rays squad that strikes out at a lofty 25.3% clip versus right-handed pitching, good for second-highest in the big leagues, in a pitchers park like Tropicana Field. Sure, the Rays could take him deep a time or two considering they rank top-10 in the Majors in both ISO (.187) and wRC+ (103), but he still remains a virtual must play in every format given his upside in this particular matchup and remarkable consistency over the two-plus months. Meaning, without a doubt, If playing Sunday’s early slate, Kluber should be the anchor in your starting pitcher slot in each and every lineup today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Start of Saturday's SF-WAS game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as ORANGE/YELLOW in his updated weather forecast due to the chances of an in-game rain delay. However, expect the delay to be a lengthy one as Kevin Roth believes the rain is still more than an hour away from the stadium. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page for more information. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Alex Pavlovic Several games with weather concerns in Saturday night's MLB forecast
It’s a rather busy night across Major League Baseball in terms of weather as a total of three separate games has received a grade with some variation of ORANGE due to rain delay potential. However, the game with the most concern comes to us in Philadelphia for the game between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies where Kevin Roth believes an in-game rain delay is highly likely, leading to his decision to classify risk as ORANGE in the aforementioned contest. There have been rumblings among the Phillies beat writers that Aaron Nola may come out the bullpen and not start this game with rain expected to arrive shortly after first pitch. though nothing has been officially confirmed as of yet. Kevin does believe that postponement chances are relatively low for this game, meaning that hitters from both teams will remain firmly in play. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jedd Gyorko scratched Saturday; Greg Garcia replaces and will bat eighth
Gyorko has officially been scratched from the St. Louis Cardinals lineup for tonight’s game against the Atlanta Braves due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in said lineup by Greg Garcia, who will take over the third base duties and bat eighth. This lineup change will bump Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk both up one spot in the order to sixth and seventh respectively. However, the remainder of the Cardinals previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Derrick Goold Justin Nicolino has a career 5.42 xFIP and 1.8% K-BB% versus RHB
Justin Nicolino is set to make his return from the disabled list to take on the Colorado Rockies tonight at home, his first start since the end of June where he was pulled in the first inning due to the aforementioned injury. Nicolino has only made five starts this season, but he has not seen great success in that time span, posting a 14.3% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate, and 5.00 SIERA in that period. It also appears that those statistics are far from an anomaly as Nicolino has been consistently well below-average throughout his two-plus seasons in the Majors. This is further evidenced by his abysmal 12.2% career strikeout rate to left-handed batters and even worse 9.2% strikeout to righties, putting this Rockies squad in great position to string together a solid offensive outing this evening. Nicolino has managed to keep the ball on the ground at a respectable 57.1% to lefties, though that rate drops to a much more exploitable 42.3% rate against righties, meaning that righties have a much easier time lifting the ball in the air and making solid contact in their at-bat events. Despite being on the road away from the friendly confines of Coors Field, this Rockies team still does possess several hitters that have posted solid numbers against left-handed pitching. Nolan Arenado (215 wRC+, .531 wOBA, .422 ISO vs LHP) is the clear top target from the Colorado lineup and can be utilized in all formats, though D.J. LeMahieu (151 wRC+, .433 wOBA vs LHP) and Trevor Story (131 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .326 ISO vs LHP) both fall into the tier below Arenado for entirely separate reasons. LeMahieu lacks individual upside but is always a great cash game and stacking option given his strong on base and contact abilities, while Story sports a massive 37.5% strikeout rate against southpaws, reserving him to more of a tournament option when also taking his spot in the batting order into consideration. Even though Charlie Blackmon (132 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .254 ISO vs LHP) sacrifices the platoon advantage against Nicolino, he still remains firmly in play for tournaments given his elite skills against both left and right-handed pitching, just further making a full a Rockies stack more than viable with Nicolino’s inability to strike opponents out on a consistent basis.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Justin Nicolino Chris Archer has a 27.1% K-BB% and 2.93 xFIP at home this season
Chris Archer is set to take the mound against the Cleveland Indians tonight looking to build on a strong start his last time out, allowing just one earned run while punching out seven in six innings pitched. Considering the high upside matchup on paper, seven strikeouts against a free-swinging Milwaukee Brewers squad may not seem all that impressive but at least the run prevention aspect of the Tampa Rays’ ace game was there, something that couldn’t be said in recent outings. On the brighter side, Archer has managed to record a minimum of eight strikeouts in five of those seven aforementioned starts, consistently flashing that high strikeout upside we have all come to know and love. Thus, the current season advanced statistics for Archer are essentially in line or slightly better than his career numbers, evidenced by a 3.45 SIERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, and a 7.4% walk rate. One concerning area is the small dip in his groundball rate (41.2% GB%) from a career 45.8% rate that is correlated with a career-high 38.5% hard hit rate, though a 24-start sample size is still arguably too small to place too much stock in the hard contact issues but remain worrisome nonetheless. The matchup with an Indians offense that is no slouch against right-handed pitching overall, ranking 7th in wRC+ (103), 7th in wOBA (.328), and 14th in ISO (.181), does very little to alleviate concerns with Archer in this spot. However, it’s still not hard to see why Archer owns one of, if not, the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Saturday’s slate, even once we factor in that Cleveland owns the seventh-best strikeout rate (19.7% K%) against righties this season. If weighting splits, another advantage with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 33.1% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to just a 25.6% strikeout rate on the road. So, clearly, even in what will likely be perceived as a high-risk matchup by the general public, Archer still clearly possesses the upside to finish the day as the highest scoring pitcher on any given slate, no matter opponent, making him an excellent option in large-field tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Boog Powell scratched Friday; Rajai Davis replaces and will bat ninth
Powell has officially been scratched from the Oakland Athletics lineup for tonight’s game against the Baltimore Orioles due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Rajai Davis, who will take over the center field duties and bat ninth. Since Davis is slotting directly into Powell’s spot in the batting order, the remainder of the Athletics previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Steve Melewski Other tagged players: Rajai Davis Start of Friday's SF-WAS game will be delayed due to weather
This game does have some PPD potential, as there are still storms from the west moving east towards the stadium, and could cause problems if it maintains it’s track. Keep an eye on the MLB Weather Page for info on all 15 games.
As reported by: @Nationals