DFS Alerts
Mets-Nationals to be delayed due to rain; no start time announced at this point
Tonight’s Mets-Nationals tilt will be delayed due to rain, but we haven’t received an expected start time at this point. We’ll continue to update the situation until this game locks at 7:08 ET.
As reported by: Jorge Castillo
Milwaukee up over one-third of a run since early this afternoon
There are several fairly sizable implied run line movements since early this afternoon, one of the largest being in Milwaukee where the Brewers have gone from 5.38 to 5.76 runs, now third highest on the slate. Also moving in a positive direction are Atlanta (4.44 to 4.8) and Seattle (4.43 to 4.72). Negative movement has affected Texas (5.57 to 5.15) and St Louis (4.9 to 4.59), both of those games with uncertain weather risk. Players can track lines and run movement for all games on our Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Miami @ St Louis is among a couple of potential trouble spots on Wednesday
Miami St Louis gets the lone sole ORANGE grade on tonight's slate. There's a fair bit of risk in this game, but the good news is that it probably doesn't contain any bats or arms players couldn't necessarily move off of if need be. Boston Texas may actually be a bit more concerning because of the unpredictability currently and the offensive potential in that game. New York (NL) Washington has lower risk (YELLOW), but probably the most coveted pitcher (Jacob deGrom) from all these games with some concern. Players will want to be sure to read Kevin's full report on the Weather page and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for updated on games with a great deal of uncertainty still.
Trevor Bauer could compete with Alex Wood for top ownership spot on DraftKings
With the Tigers and Rockies implied for six runs or more, they predictably dominate ownership projections tonight. That’s particularly true on DraftKings where they currently cover the first 11 spots with no other offensive player expected to be in much more than 12.5% of lineups currently. The interesting thing is that there are several other teams around or above the five run line that make for strong plays tonight, even better with lower ownership. Houston RHBs and virtually any LHB in Texas immediately come to mind. Alex Wood is expected to be the most popular pitcher tonight, but Trevor Bauer’s low DraftKings price ($7.3K) in a nice spot against the Padres may push him ahead of Wood on that site. For those who are less risk averse, Jon Gray has high strikeout potential at a low cost with minimal ownership expectations. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Jon Gray Austin Hedges scratched Wednesday; Luis Torrens to catch in his place
Hedges has been scratched from Wednesday’s lineup, which affords Luis Torrens the chance to catch in his place. The Padres have one of the lowest team totals on the slate and aren’t an appealing target, but Trevor Bauer has plenty of GPP appeal. Torrens will bat 9th in the lineup.
As reported by: Dennis Lin Other tagged players: Luis Torrens Several prominent GB pitchers facing top offenses against GB pitchers
There are several prominent ground ball pitchers on tonight’s slate and most of them are facing top seven offenses against ground ball pitchers. Mike Leake is the only one facing a bottom five offense (Miami 81 sOPS+). Among the top offenses, Arizona’s (119 sOPS+ – 3rd) should probably have little effect on your Alex Wood usage as he’s so far ahead of every other pitcher in most categories tonight. The Dodgers share a 119 sOPS+ and that could play into the decision on whether to use Zack Godley. Cleveland (116 sOPS+) is sixth best against ground ball pitchers. Luis Perdomo did not look to be in a favorable spot prior to that information anyway. The Houston Astros are the top offense on the road (129 wRC+) by 13 points, are tied for the top spot against LHP (119 wRC+), have been best over the last week (172) by 33 points. They are also the top offense against ground ballers (155 sOPS+) by 33 points. George Springer (257 sOPS+) and Marwin Gonzalez (193 sOP+) lead the way along with being lefty-mashers. Jaime Garcia has his work cut out for him.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: George Springer, Jaime Garcia, Mike Leake, Alex Wood, Zack Godley, Luis Perdomo Doug Fister and Andrew Cashner have had major issues with LHBs since last season
If you’re wondering why Doug Fister had a difficult time finding major league work this year, look no further than his .401 wOBA and 37 Hard% against LHBs since last season. Andrew Cashner has shown no platoon split with a .324 to .326 wOBA against batters from either side this year, but against LHBs he has a -1.9 K-BB% and GB rate 20 points lower (39.8%) along with a .380 wOBA last season. Left-handed batters should have a daily fantasy party in Texas tonight. With both lineups already confirmed, for Boston that would include Andrew Benintendi (128 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP career), Jackie Bradley Jr. (124 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since last season), Mitch Moreland (96 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Tzu-Wei Lin (171 wRC+, 43.8 Hard% last seven days). For Texas, it’s Rougned Odor (98 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since last sesason), who has strong career numbers against Fister, Shin-Soo Choo (104 wRC+, .163 ISO vs RHP since last season), Nomar Mazara (107 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP career), Jurickson Profar (83 wRC+, .105 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Joey Gallo (98 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP since last year).
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, Tzu-Wei Lin, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar, Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara Colorado and Houston bats appear at the top of the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight
Though Detroit has a higher implied run line, the Rockies are still right around six runs tonight against Scott Feldman. While we can question the legitimacy of that as Feldman has been about a league average pitcher (19.8 K%, 3.78 ERA, 4.43 SIERA) with strong contact management skills this year (83.4 mph aEV, 25.2% 95+ mph EV), while the Rockies have just an 81 wRC+ at home and 77 wRC+ vs RHP, Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arrenado are probably the two batters you could argue deserve spots atop the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. No other offense has a pair of players in the top seven, but the George Springer and Jose Altuve (vs Jaime Garcia) round out the top nine on either site with Carlos Correa just a few spots behind. Potential top values on FanDuel include Max Kepler (3.73 Pt/$/K) against Parker Bridwell, Mitch Moreland (3.71) against Andrew Cashner and Manny Machado (3.71) against Matt Garza. Machado doubles on DraftKings (2.7) along with Miguel Cabrera (2.67) against Ty Blach. In the middle of the top projected offense tonight, Cabrera costs just $4K on DK.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Mitch Moreland, Manny Machado, Miguel Cabrera Alex Wood (7.19), Jacob deGrom (6.89) and Jon Gray (6.88) are favorites of the Daily K Predictor
Alex Wood (7.19), Jacob deGrom (6.89) and Jon Gray (6.88) are favorites of the Daily K Predictor tonight, while the RotoGrinders Player Projections like Gerrit Cole as the top pitcher tonight before a group of pitchers projected closely together including deGrom and Trevor Bauer, but not Jon Gray. The drawback with Gray is obvious. He pitches in Coors and generally has the worst matchup on the board whenever he’s at home. However, he returned from a long DL stint to strikeout 10 and eclipse 100 pitches in his first start. With an 82 mph aEV and not a single barrel through four starts, don’t count him out at a low cost tonight. Wood and deGrom are obvious top picks. Wood is 7th among those with at least 70 IP with a 23.3 K-BB% and 2nd with a 65.5 GB%. He has the top matchup tonight too, hosting Arizona (17.9 K-BB%, 70 wRC+ vs LHP). deGrom has gone at least seven innings in four straight, but is in a tougher spot against Washington (120 wRC+ at home, 112 wRC+ vs RHP), albeit without Bryce Harper. Cole and even Bauer are matchup plays. Their own performances haven’t been up to par, but Cole faces the Phillies (81 wRC+ vs RHP) and Bauer gets the Padres (25.8 K%, 5.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). Neither pitcher has a SwStr rate above 8% over the last month. Strangely absent from any of this discussion has been Zack Godley. He faces the Dodgers tonight (123 wRC+ at home, 108 wRC+ vs RHP), but gets them on the road in a very negative run environment. He has struck out 23 of his last 77 batters and combines a 13.9 SwStr% on the season with a 59 GB% and 83.6 mph aEV.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Zack Godley Rougned Odor has five extra-base hits and a 93 mph aEV in 16 PAs against Doug Fister
Nelson Cruz has homered four times against Jason Vargas (41 PAs), the most of any batter against the opposing pitcher tonight, but none of those PAs have come in the Statcast era. Among those with two HRs against tonight’s pitcher and at least five BBEs, Ryan Zimmerman (97.4 mph aEV, nine BBEs), A.J. Pollock (93.7 mph aEV, 11 BBEs) and Rougned Odor (93 mph aEV, 10 BBEs) have the highest exit velocities against Jacob deGrom, Alex Wood and Doug Fister. Players may see the problem there as they’re dealing with the top two pitchers on the board and Odor’s batted ball profile has been a mess this year (too many popups). He does have a 153 wRC+ and 44.4 Hard% over the last week though and adds three doubles to the two homers against Fister in just 16 PAs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Doug Fister, Nelson Cruz, Jason Vargas, Ryan Zimmerman, A.J. Pollock, Jacob deGrom, Alex Wood Yulieski Gurriel (323 wRC+, 65 Hard%) is the hottest batter over the last week
Yulieski Gurriel (323 wRC+, 65 Hard%, two HRs) in the hottest bat in the league (10 PA min. last seven days). He joins fellow Houston RHBs Carlos Correa (314 wRC+, 74.6 Hard%, three HRs) and George Springer (272 wRC+, 52.4 Hard%, two HRs) among the top seven wRC marks over the last week. Jaime Garcia has been missing a lot of bats recently, but has not turned them into strikeouts at an above average rate and has been vulnerable to RHBs in a park that’s played very power friendly so far. Andrew McCutchen (315 wRC+, 53.3 Hard%, two HRs) has a nice matchup in Philadelphia against Ben Lively and is a favorite of the Trendspotting article today (premium subscription required). Andrew Benintendi (289 wRC+, 35.7 Hard%, two HRs) should be popular at a moderate cost in Texas against Andrew Cashner (LHBs .361 wOBA, 36.8 Hard% since 2016). Justin Upton (270 wRC+, 62.5 Hard%, one HR) is part of the top projected offense tonight (6.27 implied runs) against Ty Blach.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Correa, Andrew Benintendi, George Springer, Justin Upton Core Houston RHBs could be in a strong spot in Atlanta tonight (Garcia 5.6 K-BB%, 10 HRs vs RHBs)
Despite the game at Coors, the Detroit Tigers (6.27) have an implied line a quarter of a run higher than the Rockies (6.02) currently. They face Ty Blach, against whom RHBs have a .341 wOBA in his career. There’s another quarter plus run gap until five teams between 5.38 and 5.69 implied runs and then four more in the 4.9 to 5.06 range. That’s nearly half the teams on a 12 game slate projected for daily fantasy goodness. The core Houston three (if Correa is playing – he left the game last night) look to have an interesting matchup with Jaime Garcia. The lefty has an 18+ SwStr% in three of his last five games (12+% in all five), but has only been able to turn that into a league average strikeout rate. The power friendly park in Atlanta could be a problem, as he has just a 5.6 K-BB% with 10 HRs allowed to RHBs this season. George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa all have an .200 or better ISO against LHP this year with a 200+ wRC+ over the last week (Altuve with just a 15 Hard%). Springer, in particular, has been pummeling LHP this year (207 wRC+, .397 ISO). The Astros have a 5.06 implied run line, good for just eighth best on tonight’s slate.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Jaime Garcia, Jayson Aquino Alex Wood leads main slate with a 30.2% K% this season
He also has the lowest SIERA (2.78) and his 13.1% SwStr% is good for third behind Jacob deGrom (29.0% K%, 14.3% SwStr%, 3.6 SIERA) and Zack Godley (23.9% K%, 13.9% SwStr%, 3.76 SIERA). As a result, Vegas gives his opponent, the Diamondbacks, the lowest implied total on the board (3.05). He’ll cost a pretty penny, but he’s cheaper than deGrom, who’s just a slight favorite against Nationals – a team with a projected ISO of .220 and .366 wOBA. These guys are the two elite options available tonight, but cheaper options Gerrit Cole (20.0% K%, 8.4% SwStr%, 4.23 SIERA) and Trevor Bauer (25.7% K%, 8.5% SwStr%, 3.9 SIERA) top them in our projections model on FanDuel and are first and third on DraftKings, respectively. Both guys have more favorable matchups than Wood and deGrom. Cole is facing a Phillies team that’s projected to have a combined .140 ISO, .287 wOBA, and 23.4% K% against RHP thithis season – they have the third-lowest implied total tonight (4.04). Bauer is the biggest favorite available tonight (+223) as he’s set to square off against the Padres, whose projected lineup has a .160 ISO, .301 wOBA, and 23.0% K% against RHP this year. Both options are very intriguing given the savings they offer – for example, Bauer is $5k cheaper than deGrom on DraftKings. Be sure to check out our PlateIQ tool to dig deeper into these matchups and check out projected ownership this afternoon to see if these cheaper targets are expected to sneak by in GPPs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer
John Lackey tops our projection model on DraftKings this afternoon despite a $5.6k salary
On FanDuel he projects as a close second to Michael Pineda, but he costs $2,700 more on the site ($8.300). Although he’s coming off a terrible outing against the Nationals in which he allowed three dingers and eight earned runs, he appears to be too cheap on DK. On the season, he has a 20.5% K% and 9.9% SwStr% – he’ll face a Rays lineup with a 20.6% K% against RHP. Pineda (23.2% K%, 12.4% SwStr%), Sonny Gray (22.9% K%, 11.6% SwStr%), and Marco Estrada (25.1%, 11.8% SwStr%) have him beat in those categories and in SIERA, but Gray and Pineda both costs $9k or more on DK and Estrada is an underdog against the Yankees this afternoon. Not only is Lackey a favorite (and the Rays have the third-lowest implied total – 4.19), but he tops our K-Predictor on this slate (6.88). Rostering Lackey as an SP2 on DK allows for a ton of cap space, but he doesn’t seem as appealing on FanDuel with Gray and Pineda both within $400.
Other tagged players: Michael Pineda, Sonny Gray, Marco Estrada Blake Snell has allowed a .364 wOBA and .197 ISO to RHB this season
Through nine starts in the majors, Snell is 0-5 with a 5.36 ERA while he’s 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA in AAA. On top of that, he has an impressive 32.6% K% in the minors, which is right on par with his performance in 2015 and 2016. He definitely has a lot of potential and he posted a 3.54 ERA in the bigs last season along with a 24.4% K%. This season his strikeout rate has dropped to 18.8% and he’s struggled at the top level. In addition to the headline statistics, he’s allowing a 36.9% Hard% and a 42.7% FB% to RHB – which is notable as the Cubs’ lineup features seven batters attacking from the right side today. If we include his 2016 performance, which brings the sample to 493 batters, he’s allowed a .342 wOBA, .146 ISO, 33.2% Hard%, and 38.7% FB%. After playing most of May and June of this season in the minors, he returned to the Rays on June 28th and promptly gave up six runs in 5.0 innings to the Pirates, which raised his SIERA to 5.55. He’ll take on a tough Cubs squad today that has a combined .234 ISO and .348 wOBA against LHB this year. All eight batters have ISOs of .161 or higher since 2016 and seven of them have posted ISOs of .199 or better. Kris Bryant leads the pack with a .323 ISO and .436 wOBA across 271 plate appearances during that span and he delivered a 48.5% FB% and 38.9% Hard%. Not surprisingly, he’s second in our projections model on the early slate behind Aaron Judge, but he’s $1.6k cheaper on DraftKings and $1.0k less on FanDuel. The whole team is appealing for a stack today; although they lead the three-gamer with 5.31 projected runs, two other teams have implied totals above five, which could keep their ownership levels in check.
Other tagged players: Blake Snell