DFS Alerts
Tonight's MIN-KC game has been postponed due to rain
Saturday night’s game between the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals has been officially postponed due to rain. There has yet to be any makeup date announced by either team. Be sure to remove these players from your Main slate lineups, as they will not accrue any fantasy points.
As reported by: Jeffrey Flanagan
After the PPD in St. Louis, there is very little weather risk in any of the MLB day games
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals front offices made our decisions much easier by postponing their game this afternoon in plenty of time before lock on the early slate. This leaves us with relatively little concern about the weather among the remaining afternoon games across Major League Baseball, as the worst risk in the latest MLB weather forecast is classified as GREEN/YELLOW. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Today's CIN-STL game has been postponed due to rain
This afternoon’s game between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals has been officially postponed due to rain. There has yet to be any makeup date announced by either team. Be sure to remove these players from your Early slate lineups, as they will not accrue any fantasy points.
As reported by: Jim Day Michael Pineda takes on the Orioles in the ultimate boom-or-bust spot for both sides
Michael Pineda has been much more consistent through his first four starts of the 2017 campaign than he was last season, evidenced by the two quality starts and notching at least six strikeouts in each outing. He’s also has flashed the double-digit strikeout upside we all know he possesses in a home matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays in his second start of the year and this is certainly a possibility we can not rule out this afternoon as Pineda toes the rubber against a powerful, free-swinging Baltimore Orioles lineup. The Orioles rank fourth in ISO versus right-handed pitching this season, which isn’t something you want to see when considering rostering a starting pitcher that struggles with the long ball. However, Pineda still offers plenty of tournament appeal given the 27.4% strikeout rate he posted in 2016 which he has increased to an elite 31.5% so far this season. Despite his home run struggles (23.8% HR/FB), Pineda has pinpoint control (3.3% BB%) that enables him to really limit the damage when he does surrender that inevitable home run or home runs. His HR/FB rate is also likely due for some positive regression to the mean, though Pineda still allowed an astronomically high 17.0% HR/FB rate over the course of a full season in 2016, so it remains to be seen if he truly is the extreme outlier this trend suggests compared to the average of Major League pitchers. Given the volatility of Pineda, this is clearly a scenario where both the pitcher and opposing hitters can be considered in tournaments, however, if targeting Orioles bats, they are better rostered as one-offs than a full stack. Mark Trumbo (136 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .283 ISO since 2016), Manny Machado (120 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .238 ISO since 2016), and Chris Davis (121 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .260 ISO since 2016) are the three Baltimore hitters that possess the most power versus right-handed pitching, effectively allowing them to have the most potential upside for tournaments.
Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Chris Davis Three LH Detroit bats are below $3K on either site against Pelfrey (LHBs .373 wOBA since 2015)
Unlike most of the week, Friday is not lacking in affordable bats all over the lineup, which is great considering the pitchers many will be paying up for. The top value spot is certainly in Detroit, where the Tigers are forced to play cheap LHBs against Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .373 wOBA since 2015). Ty Collins (108 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats 2nd, while Alex Avila (113 wRC+, .167 ISO) bats lower in the lineup, but Catcher is generally a position players are willing to go a bit further down for to save salary. Both, along with Jim Adduci (259 wRC+ last seven days) are all below $3K on either site. Matt Joyce (123 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is back in the two spot for the A’s ($2.5K or less), while Jaff Decker leads off for barely the minimum. Darwin Barney is in the two spot for the Jays tonight and just above the minimum on either site. Joey Rickard (121 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP) costs the minimum on FD ($2.9K on DK) out of the leadoff spot against Sabathia. Players can also watch the Dodger lineup to see if Cody Bellinger is in the leadoff spot again ($3.1K DK, $2.3K FD) with massive power potential.
Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Jim Adduci, Matt Joyce, Darwin Barney, Joey Rickard, Cody Bellinger
ORANGE/YELLOW in SEA-CLE game headlines latest MLB weather forecast
The only game that looks worrisome in terms of weather is the matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. The game is currently classified as ORANGE/YELLOW which means a rain delay is likely and a postponement is possible. This removes both of the starting pitchers immediately from consideration, while hitters become much more risky options as well. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jake Arrieta, Jacob deGrom projected to potentially go under-owned tonight
Arizona and Detroit are projected to have some of the most popular bats on the slate (facing Kyle Freeland and Mike Pelfrey), but First Base is definitely a spot where players can differentiate with studs like Freddie Freeman and Joey Votto projected for less than 8% ownership on either site. In the OF, Aaron Judge (110 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP) faces a reverse platoon right (Gausman .357 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015), who has an ERA and estimators well above five and is expected to be in somewhere around 5% of lineups or fewer on either site. Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija are projected to be in more lineups than any other pitchers and for good reason in strong matchups, but there is no shortage of big arms tonight and players need to seriously consider Jake Arrieta and Jacob deGrom when projected for single digit ownership. Both are in tougher spots, but have strikeout rates north of 29%. Premium subscribers can see expected ownership rates for all players on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Jeff Samardzija, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Aaron Judge Manny Machado top three projected bat and also potential top FanDuel value in RG Player Projections
Max Scherzer is projected to be the top point accumulator according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections with Carlos Carrasco coming in a distant second with Nelson Cruz being scratched. There’s no shortage of expensive, high upside arms on the slate, but players looking for some lower cost value may turn to someone like Jameson Taillon (19.5 total point, 2.64 Pt/$/K projection) for $7.4K. There are three First Base bats (Goldschmidt, Thames, Freeman) among the top overall hitter projections, so players have a decision to make, but at 3B Manny Machado is both the top projected value on FanDuel (4.01 Pt/$/K) and one of the top three projected raw point totals overall on either site. With the addition of A.J. Pollock, Arizona is the only offense with more than one bat in the top six overall projected hitters.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Jameson Taillon, Paul Goldschmidt, Eric Thames, Freddie Freeman, A.J. Pollock Indians are currently tied for the highest implied team total (5.0 runs) on the slate
Ariel Miranda is coming off of a less than stellar outing against the Oakland Athletics in which he allowed four earned runs in just three innings pitched. This is concerning considering the Athletics offense is nothing to write home about and he’ll receive the unenviable task of matching up with the Cleveland Indians this evening. Through the first 88 innings of Miranda’s career, he has a below-average 19.9% strikeout rate to right-handed batters and an even-farther-below-average 15.7% strikeout rate to lefties, though he has only completed 15.1 career innings against them, so the sample is even more limited. Miranda also allows hard contact to batters from both sides of the plate, and while he does a solid job keeping the ball on the ground to left-handed batters (51.0% GB%), this is not at all the case versus righties, as he has notched only a 30.1% groundball rate thus far in his career. This is an excellent situation to stack the Indians batters in tournaments, as Edwin Encarnacion (125 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .202 ISO career vs LHP), Brandon Guyer (120 wRC+, .351 wOBA vs LHP since 2016), and Jose Ramirez (122 wRC+, .353 wOBA vs LHP since 2016) are really the Cleveland hitters that stand out from a skills perspective versus left-handed pitching. The other big name bats like Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana haven’t exhibited sustained success against southpaws, reserving them to tournament-only viability as stack fillers.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brandon Guyer, Jose Ramirez, Ariel Miranda Eric Thames (8.43%), Trey Mancini (7.61%) favored by RotoGrinders HR Predictor tonight
Eric Thames (214 wRC+, .439 ISO vs RHP) is expected back in the lineup after a hamstring scare this week. He’s one of two small sample size players topping the RotoGrinders HR Predictor tonight, though few could argue with the matchups. Thames (8.43 Proj HR%) faces Bartolo Colon, who hasn’t been terrible against RHP (.323 wOBA since 2015), but has allowed a bit of hard contact (33.2%) in the air (37.6 GB%) against RHBs and transitions to a more hitter friendly environment in Milwaukee tonight. Thames’s cost has finally begin to rise however. Trey Mancini (158 wRC+, .389 ISO vs LHP, 7.61 Proj HR%) is much cheaper. He faces C.C. Sabathia, who has allowed a .340 wOBA with 46 of his 53 HRs allowed surrendered to RHBs since 2015. Among those with larger sample sizes, both Trevor Story (6.17%) and Yasmany Tomas (6.03%) stand a decent chance of going deep off a southpaw in Arizona tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Bartolo Colon, CC Sabathia, Trevor Story, Yasmany Tomas Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge lead majors with highest rate of Barrels/BBE
Two big boys who don’t always make contact, but hammer baseballs when they do, Joey Gallo (26.2%) and Aaron Judge (23.4%) are the only batters to have barreled up the ball more than 20% of the time when they do make contact. Gallo is batting eighth against a LHP, but one who has struggled with LHBs (Skaggs .344 wOBA since 2015) and he is the hottest active bat in any lineup over the last week (349 wRC+). Judge (110 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP) bats seventh, unfortunately, but still merits strong consideration against a reverse platoon pitcher (Gausman .357 wOBA vs RHP since 2015), who has an ERA and estimators well above five this season. Nick Castellanos (133 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2015) leads all of baseball with 12 total Barrels (20.3% Barrels/BBE) and faces Mike Pelfrey. There is some merit to this matchup (at least he has a better lineup spot) as RHBs have a .337 wOBA against Pelfrey since 2015, though he has limited hard contact (24%) and kept RHBs on the ground (55.7%).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Nick Castellanos, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Gausman, Tyler Skaggs Nelson Cruz (hamstring) scratched
Nelson Cruz has been scratched with a hamstring issue. No word on a replacement yet, but this certainly enhances Carlos Carrasco’s outlook in Cleveland tonight.
As reported by: Ryan Divish Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco Pair of Mets bats (Conforto, Walker) have each homered three times off Scherzer
Adam Jones wins the BvP championship tonight. He has homered five times against C.C. Sabathia and has a 91.5 mph aEV on 14 recorded BBE. Neither can claim to be what they were at their peak, but 87 PAs is more information than we have in most matchups. The sample includes 12 Ks and 10 extra-base hits in total. Two other batters have more than a pair of homers against the pitcher they’ll face tonight and they’re surprisingly both Mets. Michael Conforto (13 PAs, 91.4 mph aEV) and Neil Walker (10 PAs, 92.6 mph aEV) have each homered three times against Max Scherzer and each also did so in his most recent start against them over the weekend. Perhaps it’s not that stunning, considering that Scherzer’s one Achilles Heal has been the long ball. Those were the only two he’s allowed this year however, but might these two inexpensive bats make some contrarian sense even for those paying up for the strikeouts tonight? Among batters with at least 10 BBE against tonight’s pitcher, Brad Miller has a stunning 100.8 mph aEV against Marcus Stroman (11 BBE), but just one triple to show for it without a HR. Perhaps launch angles have been less than optimal against such an elite ground ball pitcher.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Neil Walker, Max Scherzer, Adam Jones, CC Sabathia, Brad Miller, Marcus Stroman Joey Gallo has a .233 ISO vs LHP & 349 wRC+ over last week vs Skaggs (LHBs .344 wOBA)
Seven hitters have a 300+ wRC+ over the last week (min. 10 PAs), all with a hard hit rate north of 40%, but many of them are unlikely to be in tonight’s lineup. Robinson Chirinos is a backup Catcher with a 418 wRC+ over the last week. If he plays against Tyler Skaggs, he’s a nice punt option, but that’s unlikely. Hernan Perez (351 wRC+) does not hit RHP nearly enough to start against most of them. Joey Gallo (349 wRC+) may attempt some lefty-on-lefty violence against Tyler Skaggs (LHBs .344 wOBA since 2015) and could fly under the radar tonight. He does have a .233 ISO in limited career opportunities against southpaws. Nelson Cruz (340 wRC+) can be useful against RHP (140 wRC+, .239 ISO since 2015), but faces a good one in Carlos Carrasco (RHBs .282 wOBA since 2015). David Peralta (318 wRC+) likewise faces a lefty tonight as does Omar Narvaez (312 wRC+), who shouldn’t be in the lineup tonight. Paul Goldschmidt (304 wRC+) with the seventh highest wRC+ is where we finally find something of use, but his prowess against LHP at home is hardly a secret. Beyond potentially Joey Gallo, players will be hard pressed to find much to play with among the week’s hottest hitters.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Robinson Chirinos, Hernan Perez, David Peralta, Omar Narvaez, Nelson Cruz First base is a power house tonight, but consider LH Detroit bats as salary savers
If Eric Thames (214 wRC+, .439 ISO vs RHP) is in the lineup (hamstring), he may be the top bat on the board against Bartolo Colon (.323 wOBA, 33.2 Hard% vs RHBs since 2015), though First Base is a power house tonight. Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2015) faces Lance Lynn (LHBs .350 wOBA since 2015) and Trey Mancini (158 wRC+, .389 ISO vs LHP) may get a shot at C.C. Sabathia (RHBs .340 wOBA since 2015) on the cheap at Yankee Stadium. Paul Goldschmidt (176 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may be the most popular bat as part of an Arizona stack against rookie Kyle Freeland in Arizona, though RHBs haven’t really been very proficient against this lefty so far (.309 wOBA, 27.6 Hard%). The Diamonbacks just have an easily stackable lineup against LHP at home (Yasmany Tomas 143 wRC+, .257 ISO career, A.J. Pollock 132 wRC+, .211 ISO since 2015) and even Chris Owings (114 wRC+, .178 ISO since last season) and Brandon Drury (203 wRC+ over the last week) to help save some salary. Where players might really save some money tonight is in Detroit, where Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .373 wOBA since 2015) starts for the White Sox and the Tigers are forced to play some lesser known LHBs due to injuries. Certainly consider Tyler Collins (108 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Alex Avila (113 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP since 2015) or even Jim Adduci if in the lineup tonight, especially in the top half. All three cost less than $3K on either site and have a wRC+ above 200 over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Joey Votto, Trey Mancini, Yasmany Tomas, A.J. Pollock, Chris Owings, Brandon Drury, Tyler Collins, Jim Adduci, Alex Avila