DFS Alerts
Few concerns in Kevin's late weather update
Kevin mentions just two games with a chance of rain tonight with the PHI ATL game the more likely to be impacted, which could see a late start, but is likely to play out clean after that. There's also some light rain potential in the TB CWS affair, but it’s not expected to have much impact. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Syndergaard looks to rebound from a tough outing in road matchup with Miami
Noah Syndergaard draws a great matchup against Miami in a game that the Mets need to win. He hasn’t been elite in the second half of the season, but he’s still been very good, and showed two starts ago that he can still pick up his game when needed as he struck out 10 Nationals while allowing just one run in seven innings. It is only because his start to the season was so great that we can be disappointed in a 27.3% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate since the All-Star Break. The Marlins responded well to playing with emotion last night, but this is not a great offense, and one that Syndergaard should be able to dominate. He is a big favorite despite being on the road, and his price tag is the cheapest of the aces on DraftKings making him a strong cash game option, while he is relegated to a tournament play on FanDuel.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page
Ryan Braun OUT against HR prone A.J. Griffin (26 in 22 starts)
A.J. Griffin did not allow a HR for only the second time in 16 starts his last time out. That’s because he walked four of the first 13 batters he faced and was lifted in the second inning. Unfortunately, the top bat in the Milwaukee lineup (Ryan Braun) is out tonight and perhaps even more unfortunately, the Brewers have only two LHBs, both with average power at best because LHBs have a .408 wOBA and .449 ISO with 18 of the 26 HRs allowed by Griffin this season, while RHBs have just a .291 wOBA and eight HRs. That makes Jonathan Villar (107 wRC+, .140 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Scooter Gennett (91 wRC+, .143 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the bats to look most closely at in this lineup. Villar (139) is the only batter in the lineup with a wRC+ above 75 over the last week.
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, A.J. Griffin Robert Stephenson is allowing hard contact 40.2% of the time through six starts
Robert Stephenson allows a ton of walks (9.9%) with fly balls (42.4%) leading to some significant home run issues (2.17 HR/9). That is a terrible recipe for a pitcher, but a great combination for the St. Louis hitters tonight. He has sketchy control and allows the fly balls to both right and left-handed batters, which puts Cardinals batters into play in all formats. They can be used in cash games, stacks, or as one-offs. Stephen Piscotty (.166 ISO vs RHP) is ridiculously priced at $3.4K on DraftKings, and is basically a must play in cash games, and at $3K on FanDuel, we can use him in cash there as well. Matt Carpenter (142 wRC+, .385 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP) returns to the lineup tonight and is the clear best second baseman option. Jhonny Peralta (.151 ISO vs RHP) is also underpriced on DraftKings at $3.1K. Anyone in this lineup could homer tonight, but the players to focus on are Brandon Moss (.304 ISO, 42.8% hard hits vs RHP) and Randal Grichuk (.243 ISO, 42.2% hard hits vs RHP).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Moss, Randal Grichuk, Robert Stephenson Chris Sale has a 22.1 K-BB% since the All-Star break, Rays have a 32.8 K% over last week
Chris Sale allowed six runs while striking out just five in his last start against a terrible Philadelphia offense that has somehow done a number on several very talented pitchers recently. He still has a 22.1 K-BB% since the All Star break, but has now allowed a hard contact rate above 38% in each of his last four starts. The Rays have a 15.0 HR/FB on the road vs LHP, which could be a concern considering all the hard contact recently, but it’s also the highest strikeout spot on the board (Rays 25.76 K% vs LHP, 32.8% over the last week). Sale is one of the highest upside pitchers on the board and in baseball right now with four double digit strikeout efforts in the last two months and is a strong choice even for $14K on DraftKings. The Rays are projected for just 3.5 runs and have just two above average hitters against LHP this year in the lineup: Logan Forsythe (123 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Evan Longoria (105 wRC+, .206 ISO).
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria Ian Kennedy at home against a Twins offense with a 31.3 K% over the last week.
Ian Kennedy struggled last time out in Cleveland, but who hasn’t this year? He has been able to survive a 36.2 Hard% with a 23.0 K% and a great defense in a big park. His ERA (3.64) is well below his estimators (4.19 SIERA, 4.60 FIP), but factors such as park and defense with an extreme fly ball profile might make some of that sustainable. The thing we really like today is his matchup. The Twins, the worst team in baseball, are crawling to the finish line. They have a 24.3 K% on the road, 22.2 K% vs RHP and 31.3 K% over the last week. Tonight, they present a lineup with Logan Schafer (63 wRC+ vs RHP this season) batting fifth. This lineup is only a few competent major league hitters deep and Kennedy has some nice upside in his strikeout rate tonight at a cost a bit lower than the top arms. For the Twins, Miguel Sano (127 wRC+, .245 ISO career vs RHP) is heating up (227 wRC+, 66.7 Hard% last seven days) at an affordable cost, while Brian Dozier (130 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP this season) is coming down (-14 wRC+ last seven days).
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier Rangers currently own the highest implied run total of the evening (5.5)
We talk about it every week, but Jimmy Nelson is not a good pitcher against left-handed batters. Low strikeouts, high walks and hard hits with a drop in his ground ball rate is not a good combination against the Rangers lefties. Roughed Odor (.241 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Beltran (.201 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays here, with both of them clearly under priced on DraftKings. Beltran is a borderline must play in cash games. Mitch Moreland (.193 ISO vs RHP) has been struggling for a while now, but cold or not, $2.7K is a crazy low price against Nelson on DraftKings. Nelson is always at risk for a short outing and the top right-handed batters for Texas would be fine options in a tournament stack with a sketchy bullpen behind Nelson.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Mitch Moreland, Jimmy Nelson Mariners ignore Fiers' reverse platoon split, stack up seven LHBs
Mike Fiers has a considerable reverse platoon split, both this year (35 points), last year (38 points) and for his career (21 points). Since last season, RHBs have a .340 wOBA and 35.3 Hard%, while LHBs have a .303 wOBA and 33.3 Hard%. While Robinson Cano (148 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this season) does have two HRs against him in eight PAs, nobody has enough of a history against him to prove any different here. Yet, we are not surprised the Mariners have completely ignored this and stacked a lineup with seven LHBs. Though Fiers does have a scary 37.1 Hard% at home this season, that’s also higher vs RHBs and he also has an above average 14.5 K-BB% at home this season. This is a spot he might be able to navigate and players on two pitcher sites may want to look at him with not much happening on the low end tonight. He costs $6.5K on DraftKings and shut the Mariners out for six innings last time he faced them. Nelson Cruz (137 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015) still projects as a top OF bat tonight, while Cano costs just $3.2K on FanDuel. Both have a wRC+ above .230 over the last week with a hard hit rate above 40%.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano Tyler Naquin leading off in Cleveland's day after clinching lineup against Verlander
As expected, the Tribe has their day after clinching lineup out there tonight with just two regulars. Justin Verlander has a 35.4 K% over the last month and his 24.9 K-BB% since the All-Star break leads all of baseball. There are still some issues with his batted ball profile as a 0.69 GB/FB has led to 30 HRs even with an 11.5 HR/FB that’s below league average, but those can be basically ignored tonight as the Indians are throwing a minor league lineup at him. This boost makes one of tonight’s top overall arms even if xFIP still doesn’t love him (3.88). This may also make him the most popular pitcher on the board. The two holdovers are a bit interesting though. Tyler Naquin (138 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) costs below $3K on either site and there was no way Carlos Santana (141 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP this season) was sitting against Verlander (seven HRs in 73 career PAs). However, we have to note that Verlander hasn’t looked this good in several years.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Tyler Naquin The Padres already low implied run total has continued to decline since Maeda was named tonight's starting pitcher
Kenta Maeda has been a very consistent pitcher with elite skills against right-handed batters and an average skill set against left-handed batters. The Padres have been among the league leaders in strikeouts all season, so we can hope to see the upper-end of Maeda’s strikeout ability, although the Padres lineup does have five lefties tonight. There aren’t any real concerns about Maeda having a decent outing here, the issue is his inability to pitch deep into games. In 30 starts, he has gone seven innings only once, and has pretty regularly been yanked after five innings. This gives him a much lower ceiling than his strikeout rate and matchup would initially imply. His price tag is not far enough below some of the other higher upside pitchers for us to realistically consider him in tournaments, though he may be viable in cash games if desperate for some salary relief.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Aaron Sanchez has a 34.6 Hard% with control issues over his last six starts
Aaron Sanchez has had old control issues resurface with at least three walks in four of his last six starts and more walks than strikeouts in two of his last four. His ground ball rate is just 48.5% with a 34.6 Hard% since these issues began, which is not a good thing with Baltimore (107 wRC+, 17.0 HR/FB vs RHP) coming to town. In fact, with LHBs having 11 HRs against him this season and four of his 14 total allowed over his last five starts, GPP players could consider a couple of cheap LHBs on DraftKings tonight. Chris Davis (141 wRC+, .312 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Pedro Alvarez (119 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2015) both cost less than $4K on DraftKings, while Davis costs just $3K on FanDuel and has homered three times off Sanchez in 22 PAs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Pedro Alvarez, Aaron Sanchez Teheran arguably has the top park-adjusted matchup of the night
Julio Teheran has seen a bit of a drop in his strikeouts with a 19.1% rate over his last five starts, but he continues to display excellent control with just a 4.8% walk rate. In the guessing game that is the final week of the regular season, we have to assume that the Braves will be playing to win their final games in Turner Field. That’s obviously a pretty huge stretch in searching for a narrative that may not even matter, but if it means that Teheran will be allowed to go deep into this game as a home favorite against a weak opponent, he becomes a viable SP2 on DraftKings and a more than viable play on FanDuel with the savings his salary provides. We could also do worse than going home run hunting with Ryan Howard (.267 ISO vs RHP) for his low price tag, as Teheran allows a 47.6% FB% and 34.1% Hard% to left-handed batters.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Ryan Howard Blue Jays homered three times in three innings last time they faced Gausman (RHBs .354 wOBA since 2015)
Kevin Gausman is a fine pitcher, but still struggles greatly with RHBs (.354 wOBA since 2015), which could be an issue in Toronto against a predominantly RH lineup that hits RHP well (103 wRC+, 15.2 HR/FB). The Blue Jays tagged him for three HRs in three innings last time he visited. Players can certainly look to target the big three on DraftKings tonight, where their price tags even look a bit reduced facing a talented pitcher. Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion all have a 140+ wRC+ and .260+ ISO vs RHP since last season. Russell Martin (103 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an affordable Catcher option ($3.3K or less on either site).
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Kevin Gausman David Price has gone at least seven innings in six of last night with a 21.5 K-BB%
David Price snapped a streak of six straight starts with at least seven strikeouts last time out , but has gone at least six innings in each of his last nine and seven innings in six of them. His hard contact rate is down to a league average 30.6% with a 21.5 K-BB% over this span as well. The Red Sox have clinched a playoff berth, but nothing else at this point, so we can certainly expect the Red Sox to push him as far he’ll go tonight in a nice spot. The Yankees have just an 87 wRC+ and 9.9 HR/FB vs LHP. While David Price may not be the best of the five high priced options tonight, he’s still a very viable choice in a nice spot here. With Gary Sanchez (114 wRC+, .347 ISO vs LHP this season) being a tad over-priced in this spot where the Yankees are projected for just 3.5 runs, there really shouldn’t be any interest in the offense in this matchup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Nationals in a plus-plus matchup, but will be without Murphy, Harper, and Ramos again
Matt Koch will be making his first career major league start after a small handful of innings out of the bullpen. In the minors, Koch was a low strikeout, low walk pitcher with a low home run rate. We shouldn’t expect much out of him being limited to just 75 pitches tonight, and even if he were to pitch 4-5 decent innings with his strong control, we would still want Nationals bats against this Diamonbacks bullpen. With Daniel Muphy, Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos all out the Nationals lineup tonight, our options in the Washington lineup are suddenly extremely limited. Anthony Rendon (.180 ISO), Stephen Drew (141 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .280 ISO vs RHP), and Brian Goodwin are all cash game viable given their price points and lineup position, with the rest of the lineup left as a tournament stack. Trea Turner (156 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .264 ISO vs RHP) would be the top option to round out tournament stacks with the aforementioned value plays.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Brian Goodwin, Trea Turner, Matt Koch