DFS Alerts
Jose Berrios has a 12.9 BB% and 35.6 Hard% through 12 major league starts
Jose Berrios is an incredibly talented pitcher (28.9 K% at AAA), who has been a mess at the major league level (12.9 BB%, 35.6 Hard%). The Royals are not a potent offense, nor do they take a lot of walks (6.4 BB% vs RHP), but he still managed to put four of them on board in his lone start against them. If Berrios’s issues continue, they should be able to clog the bases and accumulate fantasy points with an affordable lineup, led by Kendrys Morales (121 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Eric Hosmer (127 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who costs $3.6K or less on either site. Salvador Perez (95 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an interesting Catcher option as RHBs have a .445 wOBA and 39.0 Hard% against Berrios so far.
Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales, Salvador Perez, Jose Berrios
RHBs have a .378 wOBA and 36.7 Hard% vs Clevinger, Tigers projected for five runs
Mike Clevinger has a 24.6 K% over his four starts, but also an 11.5 BB% with 52.6% of his batted balls in the air, while being assisted by a .222 BABIP and 94.2 LOB%. He went a season high five innings last time out and hasn’t thrown more than 85 pitches in any start. Considering the Indians clinched the AL Central last night, they may not be in peak condition for this game, though they are still in a battle for home field advantage. RHBs have given Clevinger a lot of trouble (.378 wOBA, 36.7 Hard%) and that could mean trouble here against a Detroit offense that hits RHP well. Cabrera (153 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and J.D. Martinez (143 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are your top bats with the latter costing just $3.2K on FanDuel. Kinsler (112 wRC+, .153 ISO), Upton (118 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Maybin (104 wRC+, .095 ISO) have all been at least formidable against RHP since last season at reasonable costs, all $3.6K or below on FanDuel. The Tigers are projected for five runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton, Mike Clevinger Ryan Vogelsong has a measly 1.4% K-BB% and 5.63 xFIP versus LHB
Ryan Vogelsong is a very low strikeout pitcher (14.2% K%) with no control (12.8% BB%) against left-handed batters and has been unable to keep the ball on the ground against right-handed batters (38.5%). The Cubs are running out a lineup of almost all lefties tonight, making Dexter Fowler 124 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .168 ISO vs RHP), Anthony Rizzo (156 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .276 ISO vs RHP), Ben Zobrist (118 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .163 ISO vs RHP), and Tommy La Stella (.151 ISO vs RHP) our primary targets for a high-upside tournament stack. The Cubs bats are probably not worth spending on in cash games, outside of Coghlan and La Stella, but could make fantastic lineup fillers in tournaments if not opting for the full stack in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Tommy La Stella, Chris Coghlan, Ryan Vogelsong
Max Scherzer has a great matchup at home vs Arizona, but Nats have nothing to play for this week
Max Scherzer has the highest upside on the slate in consideration of a standard workload. He hasn’t had a double digit strikeout game this month, but has struck out exactly eight in each of his last three. With a great matchup at home against the Diamondbacks (88 wRC+, 15.7 K-BB% vs RHP), the only real question is what his workload will be with nothing left to play for this week. That’s an immensely important factor at a cost of $14.2K on DK and $11.3K on FD. He may still end up the second or third best pitcher on the board even if Dusty decides to lop an inning off. The biggest threat to Scherzer’s performance tonight might be the standings. He’d otherwise be the top arm on the slate. Projected for just 2.7 runs, there’s no interest in Arizona bats.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Luis Cessa struck out one Red Sox batter in his start against them, LHBs have a 39.7 Hard% against him
Luis Cessa struck out just one of 20 Red Sox in his lone start against them and he’s struck out just 16.9% of batters over his seven starts, while LHBs have a 39.7 Hard% against him this year. That’s certainly going to be a problem in Yankee Stadium and it might make David Ortiz (181 wRC+, .363 ISO vs RHP this season) the top overall bat tonight. This Boston lineup is projected to score five runs, though the high price tags often make it difficult to discern value unless we’re looking at someone as overwhelmingly potent as Ortiz. One consideration for GPP players might be Andrew Benintendi (169 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP) costing about $3K on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Luis Cessa Matt Kemp OUT as Braves face Jerad Eickhoff (seven HRs last two starts) at home
Jerad Eickhoff has allowed seven HRs over his last two starts. He’s just passed a new professional high for innings with his strikeout rate dipping just below the 20% mark. The good news is he faces an Atlanta offense without much power (7.1 HR/FB at home), and even less without Matt Kemp, on the road in big park. The bad news is that the Braves are not an offense that strikes out a lot (19.5% vs RHP) and have a 105 wRC+ in the second half of the season. Eickhoff has really struggled with LHBs (.352 wOBA, 32.8 Hard% career), putting Freddie Freeman (155 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2015) squarely on the daily fantasy option, though there should be many strong First Base options tonight. He has a .221 wRC+ and 44.4 Hard% over the last week and a 95.9 mph aEV on nine batted balls against Eickhoff. Nick Markakis (110 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP this season) is a salary saver on FanDuel ($2.7K).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Markakis Dodgers change SP's for tonight; Kenta Maeda will start
Jose De Leon has been scratched from tonight’s start, which will leave the SP duties to Kenta Maeda. The Padres bats should be downgraded slightly, as Maeda owns a solid 5.8 Hd-Sft% on the road and gets arguably the top match-up on the board this evening. Maeda is a fine DFS play, although he’s been rather limited in terms of his ceiling, as he’s exceeded six IP just once in his last nine turns. He has however averaged more than a strikeout per inning over that stretch.
As reported by: Los Angeles Dodgers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Jose De Leon
Sean Manaea has a 13.4 SwStr% over his last 16 starts
Sean Manaea struck out seven Astros through six shutout innings in his last start, throwing 85 pitches in his second start back from injury. He’s up to a 12.1 SwStr% on the season, which would be a top 10 mark among qualified pitchers this year. If we consider just his last 16 starts, it’s 13.4%. Only four major league pitchers have exceeded that mark this season. He’s continuing to have issues with hard contact (35.3% this season). That’s less of an issue in Oakland and also the pitcher friendly park in which he faces the Angels tonight. The biggest issue is that the Angels don’t strike out (16.6% vs LHP). They also lean predominantly right-handed, but most of those RHBs aren’t very good (101 wRC+). Manaea may still have enough upside even with a strikeout reduction to overcome a reasonable cost, especially on FanDuel ($6.8K) in a winnable matchup with Weaver. Mike Trout (173 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is still doing great things if you can afford him. Pujols (115 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Escobar (127 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) may also be options for $3.2K or less on FanDuel if not using Manaea, while Jefry Marte (132 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP since 2015) costs $2.9K on either site.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Yunel Escobar, Jefry Marte Luis Severino may be limited to 50 pitches
Joe Girardi has been quoted as saying the Yankees may be only looking for three innings (or around 50 pitches) from Luis Severino today. This new information removes Severino from consideration in all formats even with estimators well below his ERA at a low cost. Three innings, unless nearly perfect, will not be enough to cover even a price well a bit above $5K. This also means that much of the Toronto lineup may only face him once, though the top of the order may get a second opportunity. They will be facing the New York bullpen for the majority of this game.
As reported by: Lohud Yankees Blog Late inning weather risk in Arizona @ Washington
Kevin’s evening forecast is up and there seems to be a fair bit of concern about the potential for weather to impact the Arizona Washington game in the late innings. The good news is that a good portion of the game will likely be played before the bad weather hits, but it still gives players from this game some risk. Read Kevin's full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Two through four in Rays order all have a .260+ ISO vs RHP facing James Shields tonight
James Shields is actually striking out batters at a league average rate over the last month and has allowed just one HR over his last two starts. He’s in one of the highest strikeout spots in baseball (Rays 24.4 K% vs RHP) at a low price, though the Rays have shown power on the road (15.0 HR/FB) and it would be a gusty move to trust Shields at this point. The Rays have a very bipolar lineup though. The top four all have a wRC+ above 110 with an ISO above .180 vs RHP. In fact, Forsythe (.183) is the only one of the four with an ISO below .260 against them this year. However, the bottom five all have a wRC+ below 55 and ISO below .130 against righties this season. That’s quite a few outs. Corey Dickerson (112 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP this season) becomes extremely interesting in the two spot with at a reasonable cost ($4.2K on DK, $3.3K on FD), while Brad Miller (121 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP this season) may be the top SS bat available.
Other tagged players: Brad Mills, Logan Forsythe, James Shields Martin Perez has a lowly 2.1% K-BB% against RHB
If Martin Perez was priced around minimum salary, we could potentially give him a look solely because he’s facing the Brewers. At his price, there is no way that is a viable option. Perez squeaks by with a solid ground ball rate (52.9%), but the rest of his pitching profile is below average. Perez allows a fair amount of hard contact (31.0%), has a 5.12 SIERA, an 8.9% walk rate, and owns just a 12.1% strikeout rate. Those are some ugly numbers. If looking for a sneaky tournament stack, the Brewers are an interesting option in this spot. Milwaukee is rolling out a lineup full of right-handed batters against Perez, and that falls in nicely with the worse side of his splits. Jonathan Villar (133 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .190 ISO vs LHP) is always capable of a big game as he will run on anyone, Ryan Braun (165 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .270 ISO vs LHP) and Chris Carter (135 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .328 ISO v LHP) provide some power, and we can easily round out Brewers stack with any combination of Domingo Santana, Orlando Arcia, or Hernan Perez.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter, Martin Perez Cardinals shuffle lineup without Carpenter against Tim Adleman
Tim Adleman has allowed 13 HRs in 57.2 innings with just an 8.7 K-BB%. His ERA would be well over five if not for a .247 BABIP and 85 LOB%. Despite the fairly neutral park and unfriendly power environment, this is a pitcher players can look to target with a run projection of five runs for a reshuffled Cardinals lineup without Matt Carpenter tonight. While batters from either side have hit Adleman well (.330+ wOBA), it’s interesting that the Cardinal bats range from a 99 wRC+ to 123 vs RHP this season, but cleanup bat Matt Adams may be the most attractive with a .213 ISO vs RHP as well and a 276 wRC+ over the last week for less than $3K on FanDuel. Grichuk, Gyorko and Moss all add ISOs above .240 vs RHP this season, though Moss (-74 wRC+ over the last week) has been ice cold for a while now.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Randal Grichuk, Jedd Gyorko Hendricks has a top park-adjusted matchup but is unusable due an expensive price tag
The second highest priced pitcher tonight is far behind Kluber in strikeout ability, although Hendricks has improved his strikeouts a bit recently with a 27.1% rate over his last four starts with his usual excellent control. His 2.06 ERA is extremely fluky thanks to a .242 BABIP this season, as reflected by his 3.71 SIERA, but with his legitimate ability to limit hard hits (25.5%) combined with strong control (6.2% BB%), and ground balls (48.3%), he is someone that we should expect to be able to beat his SIERA consistently. There is no issue at all with Hendricks’ skill set or matchup, but the concern stems from a potentially shortened outing here, as the Cubs are just focused on October. A full outing for Hendricks against the Pirates would have reasonable upside, but it’s more likely we see about six quality innings, but not enough realistic upside to pay for at this salary.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Drew Smyly has struck out just 13 of last 91 batters, Todd Frazier .329 ISO vs LHP since 2015
Drew Smyly has struck out just 13 of his last 91 batters. Without the strikeouts, such a HR prone pitcher (32 this year) is probably not worth the risk. The White Sox have also been an above average offense vs LHP (102 wRC+), led by Todd Frazier (131 wRC+, .329 ISO vs LHP since 2015). His cost exceeds $5K on DraftKings, but is over $1.5K less on FanDuel. RHBs have 25 of the 32 HRs against Smyly this season. Tim Anderson (124 wRC+, .146 ISO vs LHP) is the likely value here for $3.5K on DK and $600 less on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Drew Smyly, Tim Anderson